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Posted: 9/11/2004 12:49:16 PM EDT


ast week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week.

Putting this into perspective, just a month ago, post-Democratic convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically significant lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.


Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a 6 point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month ago, Kerry had the edge, 51% - 42%.

Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on handing of the following issues:

* War on terrorism: Bush is up 23 percentage points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early August.
* Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August.
* Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August.

Kerry now has only a small edge on health care, 47% - 42%, falling from an 18 point margin in early August. He’s now just even up with Bush, 47% Bush – 44% Kerry, on “understanding the needs of people like yourself,” after leading Bush by 15 points in early August.

Key Electability Indicators

Bush’s ratings on three key questions tied to electability have risen in recent weeks, but Bush still gets tentative scores on two of the three.

* Job rating: Bush is now at 56% approve – 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for re-electing incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability just at 50%.

* Deserves re-election?: Bush has cracked the 50% mark for the first time in recent Poll history, with 52% saying he deserves re-election, while 45% saying it’s time for someone new. Just a month ago, Bush was down by 12 points on deserving re-election.

* Right Direction?: Voters are now almost evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 46% - 49%. However that’s up from 44% right direction – 51% wrong track in early August.

Bush Favorability Up, Kerry Down

Bush’s favorability scores have risen significantly, to 54% favorable - 38% unfavorable. In early August, his favorability was even, 45% favorable – 45% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Kerry’s unfavorable ratings have increased significantly. His favorable – unfavorable scores are now even, 43% favorable – 42% unfavorable. In early August, Kerry favorable – unfavorable ratio was almost 2 to 1, 53% favorable – 29% unfavorable.

Link Posted: 9/11/2004 12:51:39 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 12:52:04 PM EDT
I think Sgt ar15 may be right about 45 states.
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:19:35 PM EDT
"45 States and California" is the exact quote I beleve...

This weekend sure aint helping Kerry none.
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:22:53 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:29:48 PM EDT
Hell, if he keeps sliding at this rate, it may be 45 states plus California and New Jersey! I just hope everything can stay on track and nothing drastic take place that might change things. Maybe this CBS news thing can sink whatever he has left. We still have the debates to get through, but I feel good knowing Bush handled Gore well last time. Gore is far smarter than Kerry ever could dream about. If he can compete with Gore in a debate, Kerry should be no different. And Kerry even has a more shitty personality than Gore, so I just don't see people getting overly enthused about him. Bush OTOH is a likable guy.
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:30:02 PM EDT
Looks like they edited out the "DAMN it!" at the end!
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:35:12 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:
"45 States and California" is the exact quote I beleve...

This weekend sure aint helping Kerry none.

"45 States and maybe California" is the exact quote I beleve...

I guess we'll have to ask him.

Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:41:13 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:45:33 PM EDT

I was watchin' some 'Talking-head" from the DNC the other day who was downplaying the Bush bounce as "Just the REGULAR, expected result post convention...."

The REAL problem for the DIMS is that Bush used a Super-Ball to get HIS bounce and John FRAUD Kerry made do with a piece of lead after HIS.

Screw 'em, it's what the Dims deserve for nominating the Anti-Dean for a candidate.

Link Posted: 9/11/2004 1:49:36 PM EDT
The debates, IMHO, will be the nail in the Kerry Coffin - he will come across as arrogant, whiny, and blooded. Hell, he'll remind everyone of that snot-nosed wussy rich kid in high school we all hated and probably some of us beat up.
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 2:01:30 PM EDT
But the people at DU say Kerry will win because he is a closer!

I think they are getting "closer" mixed up with "loser"!

What would make someone think that Kerry is a closer??? WTF???

Link Posted: 9/11/2004 2:05:00 PM EDT
what the dems are really scared about (and not saying a word about) is that comrade kerry's disaproval rating has gone up steadily over the past month or so. he's up to around 48% now
Link Posted: 9/11/2004 7:12:35 PM EDT
How hard is it to be a "closer" when you're running for office as a Democrat in Massachussetts???????

Link Posted: 9/12/2004 6:25:01 AM EDT
Just when you thought the media couldn't get any less in touch with reality


Newsweek is spinning that Kerry is closing and the 'Bush Bounce is dwindling'
Link Posted: 9/12/2004 6:29:04 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/12/2004 6:54:16 AM EDT
I'm using NJ as a bellweather indicator. If we get to 10/2 and the gap is within single digits, Kerry is doomed. He can't win if he has to spend time and money in a state like that.
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