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Posted: 5/6/2008 8:08:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/3/2008 5:13:29 PM EST by The_Macallan]


That's 259 EV For Blue-state Democratics in November right there.
One state like Ohio can decide the whole thing.


Pretty clear no matter who gets the Dem nomination, whether it's Obama or The Beast - the other will be the running mate. Either way they will generate a GINORMOUS Democrat turnout in November.

It takes 270 Electoral votes to be elected President. You do NOT need a majority of the people to vote for you - you don't even need CLOSE to a majority to win. Bill Clinton proved that in 1992 when he became President with just 43% of the vote.

So... what's all this mean for Obama/Beast - well it means either one is already this close to becoming President.

Based on the past 4 elections, this is how close this nation is divided and how easy it would be for just ONE state to hold the key to an Obama/Beast victory.

Look at the history of these solid-Democratic states in the past 4 Presidential elections:

Massachussettes (12EV) (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
New York (31EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Minnesota (10EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Hawaii (4EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Wisconsin (10EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Washington (11EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Oregon (7EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
District Columbia (3EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
New Jersey (15 EV) (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
California (55EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Illinois (21EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Michigan (17EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Pennsylvania (21EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Maryland (10EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
New England [DE,CT,VT,ME,RI] (21EV), (Kerry '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)

That's 248 Electoral historically-solid Dem States right there

(* UPDATED WITH CURRENT ELECTORAL VOTES Thanks HeavyMetal)

So it can really all come down to these few "swing" states:

New Hampshire (4EV), (Kerry '04; Bush '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Iowa (7EV), (Bush '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)
Ohio (21EV), (Bush '04; Gore '00; Clinton '96; Clinton '92)

Republicans won Iowa last time by less than 1% of the vote and Ohio by just 2%.

Obama will deliver the black vote and young voters like no one has ever seen before. HUGE new-voter turnout for the Dems. The Beast will bring out more women than ever before too. Very good chance they could take both states.


ETA: And if they're both on the ticket - they WILL take at least one or two of the Southern Red states.
Link Posted: 5/6/2008 8:10:45 PM EST
[Last Edit: 5/6/2008 8:11:12 PM EST by Foundation]
I have a bad feeling about the upcoming election
Link Posted: 5/6/2008 8:12:22 PM EST
Welcome to 1860!
Link Posted: 5/6/2008 8:13:27 PM EST
Link Posted: 5/6/2008 8:13:40 PM EST
plus McCain is fucking pathetic

how many years will it take the dems to fuck up this country before it swings back to RINOs
Link Posted: 5/6/2008 8:14:19 PM EST
McCain will just have to out Dem the Dems. The (R) base will just have to suck it up and go along.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 2:24:42 PM EST
bump.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 2:41:42 PM EST
With this economy sucking more than a shitty toilet and the stupid fucking war in Iraq.........don't get me started, but I fear the results.

Bill
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:16:27 PM EST

Originally Posted By callgood:
McCain will just have to out Dem the Dems. The (R) base will just have to suck it up and go along.

The r's have been on their knees sucking for quite some time. We really were hoping some of yall would man up this go round.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:19:19 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:22:54 PM EST
The headline on Drudge says that McCain is going for the Hillary vote. If he has to do that to win and becomes beholden to that group for his office, there will truly be no difference between him and a Democrat.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:23:35 PM EST
A Osamma/Hitlery ticket will be the death of our country
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:25:51 PM EST
Im with Mac we are fucked
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:27:37 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:28:21 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:29:42 PM EST
I wonder how people will feel after 4 years of Obama and some real nasty economic times
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:29:48 PM EST
Maybe a McCain Lieberman ticket will steal the fire from the belly of the beast.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:29:53 PM EST

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
Obama will deliver the black vote and young voters like no one has ever seen before. HUGE new-voter turnout for the Dems. The Beast will bring out more women than ever before too. Very good chance they could take both states.


Don't forget the guilt-ridden Whites who view a vote for Obama as an act of atonement.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:30:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
bump.


Why are you bumping a month old thread? Do you have guns on EE you are trying to sell, or do you just want people generally depressed, nervous, and paranoid?

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:31:21 PM EST

Originally Posted By reddog51:

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
bump.


Why are you bumping a month old thread? Do you have guns on EE you are trying to sell, or do you just want people generally depressed, nervous, and paranoid?



Because it is as valid now as when he posted it.

Get out and vote. Especially if you are in one of those blue states.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:31:55 PM EST

Originally Posted By callgood:
McCain will just have to out Dem the Dems. The (R) base will just have to suck it up and go along.


That "base" is getting smaller all the time.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:32:00 PM EST

Originally Posted By Taxman:
Im with Mac we are fucked


With Hillary on the ticket or not. Even Bob Fucking Dole knows what's going to happen in November. With an economy and foreign policy that looks bad, you don't run the old white guy that wants to continue with the most unpopular policies of the unpopular president against a braindead rockstar.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:34:46 PM EST

Originally Posted By reddog51:

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
bump.


Why are you bumping a month old thread? Do you have guns on EE you are trying to sell, or do you just want people generally depressed, nervous, and paranoid?



This is ARFCOM, is there a thread that isn't filled with depression or paranoia?
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:40:45 PM EST
You guys are missing out on something very important.


There are so many people who absolutely detest the idea of either a black person or a woman becoming President, without even addressing the issues, who didn't much care
about one white male candidate vs. another white male candidate, who will, this time,
be motivated to vote against Obama and Clinton even if it's the first time they've ever
voted in their lives.


The turnout AGAINST Hillary or Obama will be larger than anyone anticipates. It will
motivate people to vote against them in enormous numbers, ESPECIALLY in the
months following the Democratic convention when ALL of the Republicans with an axe
to grind will unleash the hounds. ALL truths about Hillary or Obama, as required,
will be made abundantly and blatantly clear to people who never really thought about the
actual positions and beliefs of those people before. You will see the mother of all
attack ad campaigns, and THEY WILL BE EFFECTIVE.

Obama is racist against white people. This will be made abundantly clear beyond any possible doubt or argument. He has had a long association with a church that preaches
black liberation theology, and just now broke his membership with it for obvious attempts
at damage control. Black liberation theology says, in brief, do not worship a white god,
and all a white man can do to be acceptable to the follower of black liberation theology
is to be ashamed of the color of his skin and apologize for it.

Obama is a full-on, screaming Marxist if not an outright Communist. This, too, will be
abundantly clear.

Obama will cut our military off at the knees, and he's said so, many times, in different
ways but the result is the same no matter how he says it.

Obama wants to "give" us social programs like universal health care that will not be free,
they will be hideously expensive, and the money comes from just one source: More
taxes for the taxpayer.

Obama wants to penalize those who are smart with their money, in the form of additional
taxes for higher income people.


The American Way does not exist in Obama's world.



Hillary, if she gets the nomination, will be subject to tailored attack ads that will be every
bit as devastating, if not more so.



Make no mistake, whether it's Hillary or Obama, the Democratic nominee is going to
suffer a major asskicking by means of the truth about him or her being presented to
all Americans in a very compelling manner.


That candidate will not survive when it comes to the final election. McCain will win,
particularly if he chooses a strong and moderate running mate.


CJ
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:42:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/3/2008 3:51:21 PM EST by BigZ]
McCain will take the win come November*-

1-You forget that there are many Hillary voters that won't go for Obama.
2-There are many southern Democrats that won't go for Obama.
3-There are many "Old School not politically correct" Dems that won't ever go for
Obama.
4-There are no Republicans voting for Obama just to prove they can vote for a black
candidate.

Obama/Hillary- Dream ticket for Republicans - Hate/Hate Even More- doesn't have a chance.

*This is can all be undone if McCain turns into a turd of a candidate.

Wait there's one more thing-
Did you see the Democrat's disastrous weekend over the Florida & Michigan vote count. It was so pathetic how could anyone ever vote for a Democrat.
This can be, as it should be, used against either Democrat candidate.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:43:04 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:51:37 PM EST
We are in trouble, guys. "Our" guy is a total dork. He won't have the cuu jones to stand up to Hussien Obama. It makes me sick. The democrat party has picked a strident left-wing nut case? He is a gun banner and he is very ANTI-WHITE/ANTI-AMERICAN. He sat in the church for 20 YEARS listening to ANTI-WHITE/ANTI-AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY. I refuse to call it theology. I CAN'T STAND HIM.

I believe an earlier poster is correct. Many will vote AGAINST him, just because he is black. I will vote against him because he is a socialist. He will attempt to take away our guns, too.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:51:39 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
The turnout AGAINST Hillary or Obama will be larger than anyone anticipates.

I disagree.



Obama is racist against white people.

I agree.



This will be made abundantly clear beyond any possible doubt or argument.

I disagree that A) it can or will be made any clearer than the Wright scandal and B) that it will matter one bit.




He has had a long association with a church that preaches
black liberation theology, and just now broke his membership with it for obvious attempts
at damage control. Black liberation theology says, in brief, do not worship a white god,
and all a white man can do to be acceptable to the follower of black liberation theology
is to be ashamed of the color of his skin and apologize for it.

Water under the bridge. OLD water.



Obama is a full-on, screaming Marxist if not an outright Communist.

I agree.



This, too, will be abundantly clear.

It already has - and he still draws tens of thousands every where he goes.




Obama will cut our military off at the knees, and he's said so, many times, in different ways but the result is the same no matter how he says it.

I agree.



Obama wants to "give" us social programs like universal health care that will not be free, they will be hideously expensive, and the money comes from just one source: More taxes for the taxpayer.

I agree.



Obama wants to penalize those who are smart with their money, in the form of additional taxes for higher income people.

I agree.



The American Way does not exist in Obama's world.

I agree.



Make no mistake, whether it's Hillary or Obama, the Democratic nominee is going to suffer a major asskicking by means of the truth about him or her being presented to all Americans in a very compelling manner.

That candidate will not survive when it comes to the final election. McCain will win,
particularly if he chooses a strong and moderate running mate.

I disagree.

Just one more state, that's all they need. And this time, we do not have a lock on the South.

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:54:52 PM EST

Originally Posted By sherrick13:

Originally Posted By reddog51:

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
bump.


Why are you bumping a month old thread? Do you have guns on EE you are trying to sell, or do you just want people generally depressed, nervous, and paranoid?



Because it is as valid now as when he posted it.

Get out and vote. Especially if you are in one of those blue states.


I am in a blue state. It was RED when I moved here in 1996. Since that time the Republicans has become as relevant here as a mouse fart. The state is in shambles and it has a dem govenor, dem controlled senate, and house. My 2 senators are Dick Durbin and Obama. It matters not one fucking iota if I vote here. Its going dem for sure especially with all the emasculated liberals, Oprah, Daley and the "Obama Church types" in the Chicago area.

Yet I will still go for and vote for that sorry old fuck McCain, who should be out there railing on that liberal fucking turd (and I don't mean turd because he is black, but because shit comes from his oral cavity when it opens), instead of trying to "one" up him on carbon caps and trading, closing Gitmo, and taxing big oil.

The RINOS are going to learn how they should have ruled when they were in power, instead of bending over for the dems to run across the aisle. You can be god damn guaranteed that this coming across the aisles shit won't apply when the DEMS have all the power, unless of course the RINOS are licking a shit trail to suck Pelosi's and Reid"s cock.



Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:56:18 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I have never seen a bigger bunch of fucking defeatists in my life. Just crawl the fuck in the grave already.

Just stating fact.

It will NOT be a cakewalk and the General Election starts TODAY.

But if you want to go strolling through the summer smelling the flowers and thinking life's all dandy come November, you're the one who needs to crawl back into reality.

Or..... should I have posted "Hey have no fear, McCain's got this thing locked up already, so don't concern yourself with getting people motivated - it's SUMMERTIME!".
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 3:59:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/3/2008 4:02:39 PM EST by HeavyMetal]
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:00:59 PM EST

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I have never seen a bigger bunch of fucking defeatists in my life. Just crawl the fuck in the grave already.

Just stating fact.

It will NOT be a cakewalk and the General Election starts TODAY.

But if you want to go strolling through the summer smelling the flowers and thinking life's all dandy come November, you're the one who needs to crawl back into reality.

Or..... should I have posted "Hey have no fear, McCain's got this thing locked up already, so don't concern yourself with getting people motivated - it's SUMMERTIME!".



Obama has a lot of ways to ruin this. I think the more they learn about him the more support he loses.

The best thing McCain can do is quit pandering.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:02:13 PM EST

Originally Posted By Taxman:
I wonder how people will feel after 4 years of Obama and some real nasty economic times


They'll just blame Bush. "The war he started and we had to finish" etc.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:04:12 PM EST
There will be no Obama-Hillary ticket!
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:06:00 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:07:25 PM EST

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Your math is wrong based on ignoring the 2002 reapportionment from the 2000 census. Your numbers are based on out of date information.

It would have been a Gore victory but not a Kerry victory.

That map is a Republican victory as it currently sits. Bush would still have won without Iowa and NH.

Not sure what you're saying.

The electoral votes shown are from current data and the map shows a Dem victory.

If a state electoral count is wrong, I don't see which state is wrong. Can you say which state(s) has the wrong count?

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:07:48 PM EST
The sky ain't falling yet.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:09:08 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:11:24 PM EST
Just tell the truth about Osama, he is a racist whitey-hating, America-hating, marxist.

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:14:53 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Anybody throwing in the towel at this point is a fucking idiot.

Who's throwing in the towel?

I'm saying it's gonna be a close fight, no landslide, no cakewalk, no easy win for McCain.



First off traditional states for the Dems are not a lock either. McCain has a very strong showing in PA and NH for example. NH is not a big deal, but considering some electoral models show races as close as single digits, even little ole NH can make a difference. McCain could very well carry PA, and if that is the case its a whole new ballgame.

Most polls show Obama steadily ahead of McCain in PA: RCP

And Ohio could go either way.

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:17:03 PM EST

Originally Posted By ricky_45:
We are in trouble, guys. "Our" guy is a total dork. He won't have the cuu jones to stand up to Hussien Obama. It makes me sick. The democrat party has picked a strident left-wing nut case? He is a gun banner and he is very ANTI-WHITE/ANTI-AMERICAN. He sat in the church for 20 YEARS listening to ANTI-WHITE/ANTI-AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY. I refuse to call it theology. I CAN'T STAND HIM.

I believe an earlier poster is correct. Many will vote AGAINST him, just because he is black. I will vote against him because he is a socialist. He will attempt to take away our guns, too.




"Our" guys is a fucking WAR HERO and he is going up against a liberal lawyer (insert either candidate). He may not be what we want, but he is better than the two douche bags he is facing. I think as long as he picks a phenomenal VP, it will be an easy win.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:18:17 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:20:12 PM EST
Obama is NOT going to win Michigan this year. The white union workers that ALWAYS vote Democrat will NOT vote for Obama. Their loyalty is not absolute and with out them the Democrats cannot win the state. Write it down and remember it.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:21:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Anybody throwing in the towel at this point is a fucking idiot.

Who's throwing in the towel?

I'm saying it's gonna be a close fight, no landslide, no cakewalk, no easy win for McCain.



First off traditional states for the Dems are not a lock either. McCain has a very strong showing in PA and NH for example. NH is not a big deal, but considering some electoral models show races as close as single digits, even little ole NH can make a difference. McCain could very well carry PA, and if that is the case its a whole new ballgame.

Most polls show Obama steadily ahead of McCain in PA: RCP

And Ohio could go either way.



Dude its fucking June, we haven't had conventions or head to head debates. McCain has also not be lead in the news because of the Hillary/Obama battle. I should smack you for even citing the polls at this point.

WELL YOU CITED STATS FROM 4 YEARS AGO!!!



And my initial comment was not directed specifically at you. I believe if you go back and read it it was aimed at the general negative impression people were voicing since the thread was resurrected from the dead. Oh noes, its going to be Obama and Hillary together and we've lost. Pure horse hockie!

Well it's gonna be a long hard fight. And if The Beast joins the ticket as VP for Obama, it's even harder IMO.

Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:22:39 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/3/2008 4:32:04 PM EST by HeavyMetal]
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:22:47 PM EST
Im expecting McCain perform poorly up until the election, it will be soo bad you will swear he is trying to lose
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:23:04 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:28:34 PM EST
The one thing that will clinch a certain Obama/Clinton win is if Conservative Republicans sit at home or vote for a third party ringer because they don't like McCain.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:32:09 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By cmjohnson:
You guys are missing out on something very important.


There are so many people who absolutely detest the idea of either a black person or a woman becoming President, without even addressing the issues, who didn't much care
about one white male candidate vs. another white male candidate, who will, this time,
be motivated to vote against Obama and Clinton even if it's the first time they've ever
voted in their lives.


The turnout AGAINST Hillary or Obama will be larger than anyone anticipates. It will
motivate people to vote against them in enormous numbers, ESPECIALLY in the
months following the Democratic convention when ALL of the Republicans with an axe
to grind will unleash the hounds. ALL truths about Hillary or Obama, as required,
will be made abundantly and blatantly clear to people who never really thought about the
actual positions and beliefs of those people before. You will see the mother of all
attack ad campaigns, and THEY WILL BE EFFECTIVE.

Obama is racist against white people. This will be made abundantly clear beyond any possible doubt or argument. He has had a long association with a church that preaches
black liberation theology, and just now broke his membership with it for obvious attempts
at damage control. Black liberation theology says, in brief, do not worship a white god,
and all a white man can do to be acceptable to the follower of black liberation theology
is to be ashamed of the color of his skin and apologize for it.

Obama is a full-on, screaming Marxist if not an outright Communist. This, too, will be
abundantly clear.

Obama will cut our military off at the knees, and he's said so, many times, in different
ways but the result is the same no matter how he says it.

Obama wants to "give" us social programs like universal health care that will not be free,
they will be hideously expensive, and the money comes from just one source: More
taxes for the taxpayer.

Obama wants to penalize those who are smart with their money, in the form of additional
taxes for higher income people.


The American Way does not exist in Obama's world.



Hillary, if she gets the nomination, will be subject to tailored attack ads that will be every
bit as devastating, if not more so.



Make no mistake, whether it's Hillary or Obama, the Democratic nominee is going to
suffer a major asskicking by means of the truth about him or her being presented to
all Americans in a very compelling manner.


That candidate will not survive when it comes to the final election. McCain will win,
particularly if he chooses a strong and moderate running mate.


CJ


Well at least SOMEBODY gets it!


I've been saying it all along and the doom and gloomers on ARFCOM just refuse to believe that anything but the worst is coming.

Enough voters will come out to vote against a black man and enough voters will come out to vote against a woman that neither of them can win, even if they're together.
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:35:36 PM EST
This is where we stand RIGHT NOW, today.

As the Democrats unify, it will get WORSE.



Jun. 03 Electoral Votes: Obama 276 McCain 238 Ties 24
Link Posted: 6/3/2008 4:40:21 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/3/2008 4:42:35 PM EST by HeavyMetal]
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