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Posted: 9/21/2005 8:42:24 PM EDT
If Houston is having major traffic jams and I believe they have a better highway system how is NYC going to do?
NYC was not built for car traffic, they would be so screwed in a mass evac situation.
You know how many people in NYC don't have a car and depend on the city for transport?
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 8:47:10 PM EDT
Another reason I will not live in a major city.
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 8:48:05 PM EDT
Stay put or get out early.

Mass evacuations are a good way to cause extra problems.
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 8:49:45 PM EDT
Nearly all large cities are impossible to evacuate efficiently. If you ever get the call to evacuate, don't sit around debating. Get on the road ASAP before they clog up and before the gas stations run dry. Also, know the back roads and old state routes that were main travel routes before the interstates. I know for a fact that I can get to Pa., Mich., Ky., Ind. and W.Va. easily without ever getting on an interstate. After that, I'm screwed without a map.
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 8:55:31 PM EDT
I got 2 brothers in NJ, 1 in Morristown and the other in Montvale and my sister is in East Northport Long Island. My one brother and his wife have plenty of hardcore backpacking time but the rest are sheeple
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 8:58:33 PM EDT
Long Island would be even worse. The only way off is through the city. Luckily Im pretty high up above sea level. But traffic would be insane, everyone wouldnt get off. If NYC was hit hard and lost power it will be complete chaos.
Link Posted: 9/21/2005 11:23:12 PM EDT
I am sure that many of the sheep could be evacuated by using the railroads.

Of course I would not depend on it. I would keep a motorcycle for bugging out.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 1:44:36 AM EDT

Originally Posted By twonami:
If Houston is having major traffic jams and I believe they have a better highway system how is NYC going to do?
NYC was not built for car traffic, they would be so screwed in a mass evac situation.
You know how many people in NYC don't have a car and depend on the city for transport?



very true. probably 80% of new yorkers dont have vehicles. That means your gonna have around 6 million sheeple to evacuate via mass tans...... nott gonna happen

There will be mass chaos and many will use it as an opportunity to loot , pillage and burn , and guess what ? they will meet little resistance as 99% of new yorkers dont have guns to prtect themselves. Only law enforcement and thugs have the guns
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 2:38:31 AM EDT
We been there done that 9/11. Its amazing how far people of all backgrounds are willing to run/walk when they are in fear of their lives. Evacuation though, some would not be willing to walk 1 block without the bus.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 2:42:18 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:19:01 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 9:40:33 AM EDT
The first and only rule of bugging out is do it early.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 9:42:17 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 9:54:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 9:55:37 AM EDT by twonami]
Yeah but still 9/11 was contained in a small area. Pretty much just Canal St and south.
If a widespread event ever hit....?
Hopefully my family has enough sense.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:05:14 AM EDT
It would depend on the type of disaster but I can guarantee you based on personal knowledge of evacuation "plans" that a mass evacuation of the NY metropolitan area will be impossible.

A direct hit on NYC with a Cat 2 hurricane and a modest 10-12 foot storm surge would completely flood out lower Manhattan. Parts of lower Manhattan are only 6-8 ft above sea level. Even small water main breaks can flood out and shutdown subway and commuter trains. A storm surge flood of the NYC subway system would likely shut it down for months.

If you are living in the NY Metro area you had better be prepared to handle any emergency yourself. You are dreaming if you think your .gov asswipe politicians will save your sorry ass.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:05:29 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Sixgun_Symphony:
I am sure that many of the sheep could be evacuated by using the railroads.




Yeah, plus you get a nice shower at your destination.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:07:13 AM EDT
Uncle Sam has some good breast milk...

I don't know why I bother paying insurance anymore... I'll get it all back anyway.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:08:56 AM EDT

Originally Posted By taelil:
... Its amazing how far people of all backgrounds are willing to run/walk when they are in fear of their lives.




DUH!!!!

Why do so many people ignore the obvious?????

People in new orleans were too lazy to walk out..... but when they see the situation is serious... then suddenly they seem to regain the lost art of walking.

Benny Hinn would be proud.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:11:20 AM EDT

Originally Posted By rkbar15:
It would depend on the type of disaster but I can guarantee you based on personal knowledge of evacuation "plans" that a mass evacuation of the NY metropolitan area will be impossible.

A direct hit on NYC with a Cat 2 hurricane and a modest 10-12 foot storm surge would completely flood out lower Manhattan. Parts of lower Manhattan are only 6-8 ft above sea level. Even small water main breaks can flood out and shutdown subway and commuter trains. A storm surge flood of the NYC subway system would likely shut it down for months.

If you are living in the NY Metro area you had better be prepared to handle any emergency yourself. You are dreaming if you think your .gov asswipe politicians will save your sorry ass.


I remember that "perfect storm" N'oreaster from 92 or 93 when the FDR and subway got flooded.
That was pretty minor compared to a real hurricane.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:13:24 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mike103:
Everyone keeps talking about how much NYC sucks but when the rubber met the road NYC stood tall.



Yes it did, but Bloomburg/Kelly is no Giuliani/Kerik.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:15:36 AM EDT
They say a Cat 2 would total NYC. The tall buildings amplify the wind effect, and a storm surge would flood the underground.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:16:20 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mike103:
Everyone keeps talking about how much NYC sucks but when the rubber met the road NYC stood tall.



Hell yes!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:22:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 10:24:33 AM EDT by Quarterbore]

Originally Posted By twonami:
Yeah but still 9/11 was contained in a small area. Pretty much just Canal St and south.
If a widespread event ever hit....?
Hopefully my family has enough sense.



No... If 911 happend in LA the natives woud have burned down their city...

NY did us all proud on 911 and I hope that more cities would do us all proud or at least much better then NO did!

Now, I guess if all the honest people left and all that was left were the rats... well I hate to think what could happen in NYC...

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:30:12 AM EDT
What reason would NYC have to bug out? A hurrican? A tornado? A blizzard? A tsunami? Unless I've been tuned out from the news for too long none of those types of weather related reasons for bugging out would likely occur in NYC. The could probably weather through a blizzard. Beyond that, an incoming volley of nukes would level the place before anyone could get off the island.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 10:32:47 AM EDT

Originally Posted By BigB1129:
Long Island would be even worse. The only way off is through the city. Luckily Im pretty high up above sea level. But traffic would be insane, everyone wouldnt get off. If NYC was hit hard and lost power it will be complete chaos.



Here here, i can be at the highest point on long island in less that 30seconds.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:04:55 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 11:30:47 AM EDT by Quarterbore]

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
What reason would NYC have to bug out? A hurrican? A tornado? A blizzard? A tsunami? Unless I've been tuned out from the news for too long none of those types of weather related reasons for bugging out would likely occur in NYC. The could probably weather through a blizzard. Beyond that, an incoming volley of nukes would level the place before anyone could get off the island.



And you are in this forum because...?

What about a dirty bomb or small nuke?
How about a chemical attack or Bio Attack?
Do you really think a tsunami couldn't happen on the east coast?
Ever hear of a place called Chernobyl?

Shit happens.... This is all about when the SHTF and how prepared we are to handle it...

Yea, it is not as likely to happen as the chances that if you live the Florida Keys that you would need to evacute or perhaps NO which is below sea level might flood, or even the Texas coast may have problems... But that does not mean that we should not be prepared!!!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:18:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mike103:
Everyone keeps talking about how much NYC sucks but when the rubber met the road NYC stood tall.



Amen!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:20:51 AM EDT

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
What reason would NYC have to bug out? A hurrican? A tornado? A blizzard? A tsunami? Unless I've been tuned out from the news for too long none of those types of weather related reasons for bugging out would likely occur in NYC. The could probably weather through a blizzard. Beyond that, an incoming volley of nukes would level the place before anyone could get off the island.



The most likely reason would be a an expected Cat 2 or higher hurricane. I believe NYC is number 3 or 4 on the list of major cites likely to be devastated by a hurricane in the future. It could come in weeks or many years but it will come eventually. Next in line would be detonation of a dirty bomb type nuclear device or a biological device. A major earthquake is also possible and might require evacuation depending on the extent of the damage. A major release of radiation from a nuclear accident at Indian Point might also require sections or all of NYC to evacuate.



Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:55:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 11:57:45 AM EDT by pathfinder74]

Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
And you are in this forum because...? Ummm.... it's the GD. Where do you think it is?

What about a dirty bomb or small nuke? How about a chemical attack or Bio Attack?
Generally not incicents that would warrant an entire city being evacuated. Are you claming to be a CBR expert? If not STFO [step the fuck off].

Do you really think a tsunami couldn't happen on the east coast? Yes, I do. Not in this lifetime anyway. The last one they think may have been a tsunami that hit the NYC area was about 80 years ago.

Ever hear of a place called Chernobyl? What nuclear power plant operated by Russians is closest to NYC?
There are 3 active reactors in NY, only one (Indian Point) being close enough to pose a legitimate concern as I understand it. The ones in NJ aren't close enough to NYC to be a potential cause for an immediate evacuation.
Three Mile Island happened over 26 years ago and I think it's safe to assume major technological advances in safeguards have cut down on the possibility of that happening again any time soon.


Shit happens.... This is all about when the SHTF and how prepared we are to handle it...
This is the SF... it's the GD.

Yea, it is not a likely to happen as the chances that if you live the Florida Keys that you would need to evacute or perhaps NO which is below sea level might flood, or even the Texas coast may have problems... But that does not mean that we should be prepared!!!
So we should or should not be prepared. Preparations in NYC are not living right on the water, living high enough to avoid being overcome by flood water, and having the necessary CBN equipment to protec yourself in the event of that type of attack. There... happy?

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:57:15 AM EDT

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
What reason would NYC have to bug out? A hurrican? A tornado? A blizzard? A tsunami? Unless I've been tuned out from the news for too long none of those types of weather related reasons for bugging out would likely occur in NYC.



Hurricanes do happen in the North East. In my lifetime several have hit CT and they all had to cross Long Island to get to us.

Add in those chemical plants in the area and you could be looking at several options.


Oh and to those that said evacutate them by rail. I ran the numbers, it would take 3-4 days under unrealistic scenarios ( trains holding 1000 people, making trips of no more than 15 minutes one way, with 0 loading/unloading time, and both Penn Station and Grand Central running 20 tracks at a time) to evacutate NYC. Add in the fact that half+ the trains would be going into the storm's path (if it was a hurricane).
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 11:58:40 AM EDT
I've been in two hurricanes in CT.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:00:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 3:11:24 PM EDT by _DR]
Tag
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:03:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 12:17:14 PM EDT by pathfinder74]

Originally Posted By Forest:
Hurricanes do happen in the North East. In my lifetime several have hit CT and they all had to cross Long Island to get to us.



Ok, so the kneejerk reaction now, after how many decades is to evacuate at the sign of every hurricane, correct?

What, in the event of NYC being hit by a CAT 4, would be the most damage? Could a hurricane potentially knock down a skyscraper? Besides flooding and broken windows I don't think NYC would ever face the same level of disaster as NOLA. It's no below sea level so the floowater would eventually drain itself out v. trying to overtake the entire city.

The fact that the majority of NYC lives in buildings that are well above 3 stories, the risk of people getting trapped in their attics isn't likely, nor would the majority of the city be inhospitable in those terms.


Originally Posted By 37Victor:
I've been in two hurricanes in CT.



I've been in one in NJ, one in MD, and one in Alabama IIRC. None of which were enough to force me out of my home. So unless Al Gore's theory of Global Warming is coming to a head and we're going to see a lot mroe Cat 5 hurricans slamming against the east coast, well, you know what I think.

Sorry, I'm just not seeing it the way you guys are. Feel free to keep trying to convince me though.

ETA: Source
Hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states 1851-2004
New York Cat 1: 6 | Cat 2: 1 | Cat 3: 5
Connecticut Cat 1: 4 | Cat 2: 3 | Cat 3: 3
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:06:54 PM EDT

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
Ummm.... it's the GD. Where do you think it is?




Yup... got me as I thought this topic was in the survival forum... Ooops...

Still, you might want to look up a small island in the Canaries called La Palma... it could be the source of the wave that will whipe out all the east coast and it is possible you might get a warning... There is also a very small chance of something from space, or even an Atlantic Earthquake...

There are reasons that a city might need to be evacuated... those that don't think about it and prepare for what they would do... well I guess we saw NO didn't we.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:07:03 PM EDT
In NYC, everybody walked out. They understood the situation.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:10:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 12:19:53 PM EDT by Quarterbore]
Here is the link for some info on La Palma... there is more info but this the best I could find quickly...

www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml


The growing concern is that the ideal conditions for just such a landslide - and consequent mega-tsunami - now exist on the island of La Palma in the Canaries. In 1949 the southern volcano on the island erupted. During the eruption an enormous crack appeared across one side of the volcano, as the western half slipped a few metres towards the Atlantic before stopping in its tracks. Although the volcano presents no danger while it is quiescent, scientists believe the western flank will give way completely during some future eruption on the summit of the volcano. In other words, any time in the next few thousand years a huge section of southern La Palma, weighing 500 thousand million tonnes, will fall into the Atlantic ocean.

What will happen when the volcano on La Palma collapses? Scientists predict that it will generate a wave that will be almost inconceivably destructive, far bigger than anything ever witnessed in modern times. It will surge across the entire Atlantic in a matter of hours, engulfing the whole US east coast, sweeping away everything in its path up to 20km inland. Boston would be hit first, followed by New York, then all the way down the coast to Miami and the Caribbean.



More links:

archives.cnn.com/2001/TECH/science/08/29/tidal.wave/

volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/africa/lapalma.html
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:20:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
Here is the link for some info on La Palma... there is more info but this the best I could find quickly...
www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml



That is levels beyond a regular city scale evacuation. Could you imagine a CONTINENTAL COASTAL evacuation? Talk about chaos. I'll sit in my living room with my scuba gear on an wait for the ride. YEEEHAAA!!!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:23:06 PM EDT
Brooklyn and Queens has a lot of 2 or less story homes that would easily get fubared
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:30:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:

Originally Posted By Quarterbore:
Here is the link for some info on La Palma... there is more info but this the best I could find quickly...
www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml



That is levels beyond a regular city scale evacuation. Could you imagine a CONTINENTAL COASTAL evacuation? Talk about chaos. I'll sit in my living room with my scuba gear on an wait for the ride. YEEEHAAA!!!




No kidding... FEMA is having a tough time now... A comet or monster tsunami from that island might be predicatable WHEN they happen (may not happen our life but it will happen)... would we be able to do anything to get out... that is the question IMHO

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:31:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
What, in the event of NYC being hit by a CAT 4, would be the most damage? Could a hurricane potentially knock down a skyscraper?



Don't know - do you know to what level NYC requires their buildings to be built to?


Besides flooding and broken windows I don't think NYC would ever face the same level of disaster as NOLA. It's no below sea level so the floowater would eventually drain itself out v. trying to overtake the entire city.

I agree it would never be like NOLA - but there are pleny of people who live near the water (my mother-in-law is one of them) that could be forced from their homes for a few days.

When I was in the CT Guard I can remember our unit running flights to survey hurricane damage and the Middletown unit being deployed to stop looters due to flooding (and that city is well above sea level and above the lever of the CT river).


The fact that the majority of NYC lives in buildings that are well above 3 stories, the risk of people getting trapped in their attics isn't likely, nor would the majority of the city be inhospitable in those terms.

It will never be like NOLA - but considering the amount of good that have to come into the city via tunnel, ship or bridge to keep it's people fed. Now if a Cat 4 or 5 dammaged the docks and tunnels (which ARE below sea level) you could face some issues for a short time.


So unless Al Gore's theory of Global Warming is coming to a head and we're going to see a lot mroe Cat 5 hurricans slamming against the east coast, well, you know what I think.

Don't know about Al Gore's theories, but I do KNOW the Sun has warmed up a bit over the last 60 years as part of it's life cycle. Does that increase the possiblity of Cat 4 & 5 storms? Hell if I know.

I do know it's better to be prepared with a plan, than left standing there with your dick in your hand wondering what do to.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:37:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 12:39:03 PM EDT by mike103]
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:40:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 12:49:50 PM EDT by rkbar15]

Originally Posted By pathfinder74:
What, in the event of NYC being hit by a CAT 4, would be the most damage? Could a hurricane potentially knock down a skyscraper? Besides flooding and broken windows I don't think NYC would ever face the same level of disaster as NOLA. It's no below sea level so the floowater would eventually drain itself out v. trying to overtake the entire city.



Actually much of NYC is below sea level in the form of subway, train, auto, sewer, water, steam, telephone and electrical tunnels etc. Even a modest storm surge would flood these tunnels effectively shutting down NYC for weeks or possibly months.

Everything in NYC requires electrical service which would be knocked out by flooding out the underground electrical system with salt water. Without electricity there would be no water service to buildings and obviously elevators would not operate either. Without refrigeration there would be a very limited food supply available to feed 8+ million people. Cell and wired telephone service would also be spotty or non-existant.

The NYC sewer system is a combined sewage and rain water system. Flooding the sewer system would likely result in hundreds of millions of gallons of sewage being deposited around the city by receding flood waters. The water distribution system would likely result in contaminated drinking water. The water system is over a hundred years old in many areas of the city and is subject to frequent disruptions every year from "old age".

ETA: Oh BTW there are more rats in NYC then people. Where do you think they will go when their underground homes are flooded out. There would be 12ft alligators in the streets too.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:41:08 PM EDT
In the event of a terrorist WMD, it really wouldn't be a problem in NYC. Most of NYC traffic are the taxis. Those guys would get the heads up WAY in advance and bug out early. Now if you stop seeing Taxis on NYC streets...
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:50:55 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Vinnie:
In the event of a terrorist WMD, it really wouldn't be a problem in NYC. Most of NYC traffic are the taxis. Those guys would get the heads up WAY in advance and bug out early. Now if you stop seeing Taxis on NYC streets...



Good to know.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:54:03 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:58:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By FrankSquid:
Pfft, nukes, hurricanes, flooding, loss of power, riots??? Just another day in the city. We'll get out...the heard maybe thinned a little but 99.999% of us will be OK.



LOL. You're used to swimmin' wit da squids though.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 12:59:02 PM EDT
L.I.ers! T-(preparing for the zombie uprising)stox can give you some survival tips. #1 there is a ferry from LI to Conneticut without going through new york city. If you must exit by car through NYC take either the whiteystone or throgsneck. Verrazano and Triborough will be fucked up good. #2 There is a little secret this sea dog can tell you. If it's serious and you get trapped in LI Go to the north shore marinas (anyone will do) or maybe south shore. Most boats are easy to "appropriate" some are just tied up and the bigger ones while they have an ignition it can be "hot wired" real easy. I recommend a sailboat as a motor only will need guzzoline. Can't sail? Tough titty landlubber! You can row can't you? you could follow the coast anywhere you wanted or you could land in conn. or RI. and link up with a friend or appropriate an abandoned car.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 1:06:40 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Vinnie:
In the event of a terrorist WMD, it really wouldn't be a problem in NYC. Most of NYC traffic are the taxis. Those guys would get the heads up WAY in advance and bug out early. Now if you stop seeing Taxis on NYC streets...



Read this?

I'm certainly not trying to convince anyone not to be prepared. I think the discussion started out as bugging out of NYC, and my original point was it would be a traffic nightmare. It's already way behind the power curve of effectiveness. That's all I'm saying.

don't miskate it as me saying people in NYC shouldn't be prepared. But they should be prepared as much to bug in as opposed to being stuck on I95 or in one of the tunnels when the SHTF.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 1:13:14 PM EDT
Car pooling would be an extremely effective way of reducing traffic from NYC. There are less then a dozen ways off of manhattan, simply don't allow people to leave in a car that doesn't have at least 2 or 3 people in it.

Operating ferries from Manhattan would also be an effective evacuation method. Don't forget bridges and tunnels could operate at double capacity because all of the traffic would be going 1 way .

Finally, if you have that comfy CEO position downtown you can simply be flown out of the city by private chopper.

BK and Queens can evacuate through Manhattan, as well as through S.I or through the BX to Yonkers.



New York has a lot better leadership then a lot of other places and I belive that this sort of an operation can be carried out relatively smoothely. The sad fact is, a lot of "leaders" in LA dropped the ball on Katrina, but that doesn't mean that the leadership is inept everywhere.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 1:16:14 PM EDT
Remember the big black out a few years ago? There was hardly any looting. I thought it would be worse. The one back in the 60's pt 70's was pretty bad right?
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 1:54:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By t-stox:
L.I.ers! T-(preparing for the zombie uprising)stox can give you some survival tips. #1 there is a ferry from LI to Conneticut without going through new york city. If you must exit by car through NYC take either the whiteystone or throgsneck. Verrazano and Triborough will be fucked up good. #2 There is a little secret this sea dog can tell you. If it's serious and you get trapped in LI Go to the north shore marinas (anyone will do) or maybe south shore. Most boats are easy to "appropriate" some are just tied up and the bigger ones while they have an ignition it can be "hot wired" real easy. I recommend a sailboat as a motor only will need guzzoline. Can't sail? Tough titty landlubber! You can row can't you? you could follow the coast anywhere you wanted or you could land in conn. or RI. and link up with a friend or appropriate an abandoned car.


The line for the ferry would get long fast
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