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Posted: 9/14/2004 8:31:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/23/2004 3:46:22 AM EST by BayEagle]
will be a Cat 1 Hurricane by Sunday WEDNESDAY.

Now a Hurricane. Several models put Florida in the target again:

Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:36:55 AM EST
At least my generators are finally paying off!
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:37:36 AM EST
Nice to see they can narrow down where its headed.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:37:57 AM EST
Knock on wood - I haven't had to fire mine up yet.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:38:12 AM EST
Good luck, folks. Looks like Ivan has a bug to pick between New Orleans and Mobile.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:38:13 AM EST
And I still have spare ammo from the last one
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:40:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By BayEagle:
Knock on wood - I haven't had to fire mine up yet.




I was out of power for just about 6 days. My mothers place (30 miles away) is still out...going on 11 days I think.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:42:08 AM EST
SHIT!
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:43:22 AM EST
Cat 1? Phhht.

<­BR>


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaauuuuuu­uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuggggggggh!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:44:49 AM EST
I just wish I had Home Depot or Lowe's stock.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:45:59 AM EST


This link should auto-update.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:46:42 AM EST
Damn, not again. At least this doesn't seem to pose much threat to us on the gulf side. I wish my generator would arrive, still on back order.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:47:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By PosterChild:

Originally Posted By BayEagle:
Knock on wood - I haven't had to fire mine up yet.




I was out of power for just about 6 days. My mothers place (30 miles away) is still out...going on 11 days I think.



I was out for 5 days. Lost all 4 refrigerators.

I got my generator fixed last week.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:27:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By Q3131A:

Originally Posted By PosterChild:

Originally Posted By BayEagle:
Knock on wood - I haven't had to fire mine up yet.




I was out of power for just about 6 days. My mothers place (30 miles away) is still out...going on 11 days I think.



I was out for 5 days. Lost all 4 refrigerators.

I got my generator fixed last week.



Where in FL are you? And Jesus man, what's with the 4 fridges?
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:38:26 AM EST
" tryin to reason with the hurricane season"
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:40:05 AM EST
And to think I was goig to take my shutters down today
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:41:45 AM EST


ACK! We had four people die in Ohio from the last one! They usually come up here to die. Just sit here and dump tons of rain, flood everything.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:52:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:57:51 AM EST

Originally Posted By brasspile:
Small and slow....

Still a storm, but very small and low windspeeds, barely ranking hurricane status by the military:

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2004/al112004.04091406.gif




Maybe, but all the houses around here with roof damage from Frances would rather it not come ashore at all.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:59:46 AM EST

Originally Posted By Chokey:
Nice to see they can narrow down where its headed.



Just typical for the weather man -- it might rain or be cloudy, unless it stalls or passes us over in which case it will be sunny ..................
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 11:03:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By PosterChild:

Originally Posted By brasspile:
Small and slow....

Still a storm, but very small and low windspeeds, barely ranking hurricane status by the military:

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2004/al112004.04091406.gif




Maybe, but all the houses around here with roof damage from Frances would rather it not come ashore at all.



+1

This was 40mph from "Tropical Storm" Frances:



Link Posted: 9/14/2004 11:53:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By brasspile:
Small and slow....

Still a storm, but very small and low windspeeds, barely ranking hurricane status by the military:




Sounds like after it gets past this wind shear, and dry air , it will intensify quickly..

JEANNE IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ONLY
IMMEDIATE HINDERING INFLUENCE TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS DRY
AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL JEANNE PASSES OVER OR
NEAR PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONGER TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH
RESULTS IN 20-25 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY IS LEVELED OFF UNTIL 120 HOURS...WHEN THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.6N 63.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 66.3W 55 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.2N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.2N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 75.0W 70 KT

Link Posted: 9/14/2004 12:03:28 PM EST
nuke it from orbit.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 12:07:49 PM EST
As long as the bitch stays south of 30N, everything will be fine.

Sonofabitch, I thought I would be able to have a decent week at the beach next week. No worries about hurricanes. Then this motherfucker pops up.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 12:33:40 PM EST
Woops. Not supposed to hit "Hurricane" status til Sunday. Check out the 5pm update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.


What a year.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 12:37:06 PM EST
Tag.


Bigfeet
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 10:09:44 AM EST


Oh and there is another sizable Tropical Wave/Depression forming off West Africa.

Link Posted: 9/16/2004 10:13:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 10:18:07 AM EST by captainpooby]
Edit. I like this better.

Link Posted: 9/16/2004 10:19:42 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 11:00:11 AM EST by BayEagle]

Originally Posted By captainpooby:
You have got to be kidding. OJNTSA. Thats right over my house. Again.



You noticed that, huh? Yikes.

For some reason Accuweather has been predicting a FT Lauderdale-ish to Tampa Bay-ish path since the beginning.

Most of the models were showing an Atlantic path, but now they are all starting to drift westward. Supposedly there is another High Pressure RIdge forming up north that will steer this thing across Florida again (read: Frances).



Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:23:05 PM EST
My son is up at Shaw AFB in the middle of South Carolina. He's been on Evac Detachment , off detachment , stand it up stand down on the Detachment off the detachment stand it up stand it down.. He says he'ld rather have a good old earthquake and get it over with.

Lookslike he'll be doing it again, maybe, yes, no, maybe, yes , no again.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:32:08 PM EST
What does the USF Superensemble say about the projected track??? That's the one to watch...they are almost never wrong...
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:35:15 PM EST


Here's what she looks like now. gettin ready for the prom!





Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:37:22 PM EST
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 2:43:24 PM EST

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 6:00:35 PM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?




WTF? Indeed.





Before:


After:
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 6:23:17 AM EST
1100 Update from NHC...



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.5N 71.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 72.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.2N 73.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 23.8N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 75.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 77.3W 80 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 75 KT




That last one is around Flagler Beach on Wednesday morning.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:04:11 AM EST

Originally Posted By Kazion:
And I still have spare ammo from the last one



Me and You, Kazion!! Interlocking fields of fire. We can take this thing OUT!!!
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:05:37 AM EST

Originally Posted By BayEagle:




Damn...that one is heartbreaking...
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:07:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?



Dude...tell that to the people in Punta Gorda...or Port St. Lucie...or Pensacola...better rethink your statement there...
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:12:04 AM EST
always ready,,, , hopefully it will come and go,, and it will be the last for a few ,,it'd be nice to get back to normal around here,,
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:13:12 AM EST
BOHICA



I think the Big Man upstairs is teaching Florida a lesson.

Like " Don't screw up this next election"
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:26:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?



Dude...tell that to the people in Punta Gorda...or Port St. Lucie...or Pensacola...better rethink your statement there...





Port St. Lucie here...and hoping to avoid any more this season.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:30:16 AM EST

Originally Posted By Seagrunt:
BOHICA



I think the Big Man upstairs is teaching Florida a lesson.

Like " Don't screw up this next election"




Hey, I voted for Bush.

This is obviously a Democratic plot to wipe out at least 1000 Republican voters to undo the effect of the last election.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:37:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?



Dude...tell that to the people in Punta Gorda...or Port St. Lucie...or Pensacola...better rethink your statement there...



... No, I'm not rethinking my statement at all.

... Genuine sympathies go out to ANYONE who suffers any natural disaster in just about anywhere. Anyone that knows me knows I’m sincere about that.

… My grief is when the media hyper-reports these “doomsday hurricanes” as if TEOTWAWKI was imminent. Standing in 75MPH winds and rains is not news to me; it’s sensationalizing.

… Then, immediately after it blows over, they scramble to show a couple windows blown out of already abandoned houses, lower cameras the ground level to emphasis runoff and do a lot of speculation. All the damned drama just to save their ratings.

… I believe they should instead be providing valuable statistical information to those needing refuge, PSA’s, best evacuation routes etc, etc.. And after the fact, they should wait until reliable data comes in and report it factually at that time.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:49:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By PosterChild:

Originally Posted By Q3131A:

Originally Posted By PosterChild:

Originally Posted By BayEagle:
Knock on wood - I haven't had to fire mine up yet.




I was out of power for just about 6 days. My mothers place (30 miles away) is still out...going on 11 days I think.



I was out for 5 days. Lost all 4 refrigerators.

I got my generator fixed last week.



Where in FL are you?


I'm in Citrus county north of Tampa.


And Jesus man, what's with the 4 fridges?

I like Cold BEER!

Link Posted: 9/23/2004 3:45:31 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 5:21:06 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/23/2004 5:25:01 AM EST by PAEBR332]

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:
C'mon, Jeanne, you fucking bitch...BRING...IT!!!



... Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder about these "hurricane" things you all speak of

... They make a lot of doomsday news headlines when out at sea, and then the media hyper-reports largley non-events after they hit land

... WTF?



Dude...tell that to the people in Punta Gorda...or Port St. Lucie...or Pensacola...better rethink your statement there...



... No, I'm not rethinking my statement at all.

... Genuine sympathies go out to ANYONE who suffers any natural disaster in just about anywhere. Anyone that knows me knows I’m sincere about that.

… My grief is when the media hyper-reports these “doomsday hurricanes” as if TEOTWAWKI was imminent. Standing in 75MPH winds and rains is not news to me; it’s sensationalizing.

… Then, immediately after it blows over, they scramble to show a couple windows blown out of already abandoned houses, lower cameras the ground level to emphasis runoff and do a lot of speculation. All the damned drama just to save their ratings.

… I believe they should instead be providing valuable statistical information to those needing refuge, PSA’s, best evacuation routes etc, etc.. And after the fact, they should wait until reliable data comes in and report it factually at that time.



Don't be a prick. Hurrican Jeanne has already killed several HUNDRED people. Jeanne Fatalities

So far this year, Hurricanes have caused over $50 BILLION dollars of damage to the US. Just ten miles from where I live (and we are over a thousand miles from where Ivan first made landfall), Ivan spawned several tornados, including one that destroyed a home and nearly killed an Amish Family. Every stream in this part of PA flooded, and all the counties around here were declared disaster areas.

BTW, one of the reasons the gloom-and-doom predictions do not come true here is that many people heed the warnings and leave the danger zone. Look at some of the previously posted pictures and ask yourself what would have happened had everyone taken your advice and stayed in those now destroyed homes and hotels?

Maybe guys from the middle of the desert should not pontificate on experiences they don't have.
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 10:26:27 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/23/2004 10:28:32 AM EST by PosterChild]
Dammit. I took all my crappy plywood "shutters" down last weekend. That's why it's headed right for me.


Thursday afternoon (9-23-04 12:15 p.m.) and B.J.'s already had a line to get water and the only batteries they had left were AAA's and C's.


I just filled up my car with gas and when I get home, my remaining empty gas cans will get filled up. Frances left my family without power for 6.5 days. My mom went without for 10.5. My dad's house is getting reroofed today and tomorrow, after Frances decided to remove the majority of it for him. I hope it gets finished.


The current projected path puts it right in my front yard.

Good luck to all of you in its path.



Edited to add a comma.
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 10:39:20 AM EST

Originally Posted By PosterChild:
Dammit. I took all my crappy plywood "shutters" down last weekend. That's why it's headed right for me.


Thursday afternoon (9-23-04 12:15 p.m.) and B.J.'s already had a line to get water and the only batteries they had left were AAA's and C's.


I just filled up my car with gas and when I get home, my remaining empty gas cans will get filled up. Frances left my family without power for 6.5 days. My mom went without for 10.5. My dad's house is getting reroofed today and tomorrow, after Frances decided to remove the majority of it for him. I hope it gets finished.


The current projected path puts it right in my front yard.

Good luck to all of you in its path.



Edited to add a comma.



I've left my house boarded since Frances. It's like creating a force field. The moment you take them down the friggin track will head straight for you.

Link Posted: 9/23/2004 11:00:30 AM EST
Port St. Lucie here, as well...

Other than half a roof, several hundred gallons of rain pouring through that hole ruining everything inside, and the same water shorting out the electrical system so I had a house fire once the electric got turned back on (only a 16 day wait!), I'm just peachy!

My grandmother STILL has no power...and I have yet to get a live person to talk to me from the insurance company.

But I STILL have ammo.....and my family & I are alive and kicking. We'll get by...

But it DOES make one wonder WTF the weather is trying to purge outta Florida....

Link Posted: 9/23/2004 12:22:22 PM EST
This ain't looking good AT ALL! This looks just like Frances' projected track and we here in NE Ohio got pounded by that bitch! The ground here is still saturated from her and what we got from Ivan and, if Jeanne hits here, we're toast!

My family lucked out pretty good with Frances, Ivan and all the rain we had here in May. I live at just about the lowest point in my town on about a 2-foot hill compared to the rest of the houses and that's all that saved us. All the houses in my neighborhood had 1-2 feet of water in their basements, along with the backed-up sewers in most. We had just enough water to splash in in one corner of the basement and only got that because of a plugged-up downspout causing the gutter to over-flow and run in the basement walls from the saturated ground. With the ground saturated the way it is, we might just not luck out the next time. I realize that most in FL would LOVE to "just have" have 2 feet of water in their basement compared to what they've had lately. But this just ain't normal or good! Stay safe, Southern Crew! Watch out for mudslides, something else we've had here that's unheard of for us!

Bub
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