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Posted: 4/30/2011 7:43:58 AM EDT
Having finally acquired a copy of One Second After by William Forstchen - and finishing it last night, I am left with questions.



First, whenever the subject arises on ARF, the consensus seems to be that the threat is overblown in the book.  That is to say, the results of a series of EMPs (a nuke detonated in the upper atmosphere over the CONUS) would NOT knock out most everything with an integrated circuit in it.



Of course the book, and many others, including the military expert he leaned on to write this book state that the threat is quite real, and is being virtually ignored by those who are most equipped to do something about it (politicians).



Is this something that needs to be pushed by citizens (massive firemission?).



If you have not read the book, it is highly recommended.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:50:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 7:50:33 AM EDT by Agilt]
Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:53:13 AM EDT
If that douche is a mil expert, then can he explain why the mil does not EMP proof all their shit?



Because its not important
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:53:43 AM EDT



Originally Posted By Agilt:


Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.



Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile


Ok.  Now, what do you base your statement on?  Have you read something to the contrary or is it your opinion?  If it's something you've read that has convinced you that it is "overblown", please give me a link so I can educate myself further.  Thanks.
 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:55:04 AM EDT
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:56:31 AM EDT



Originally Posted By TaylorWSO:


If that douche is a mil expert, then can he explain why the mil does not EMP proof all their shit?



Because its not important


The book explains that it was much more of a focus a decade or two ago, but we are getting away from it.  I'm not sure why (if they are) getting away from shielding.  I've been out of the loop too long.



I do know that as of about 1994 or so, it was still very much a focus.  I'm not going to say more than that!
 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:56:39 AM EDT
A HEMP detonation would probably be pretty rough on most current consumer-grade, thow-away electronics.  Well shielded electronic systems like those in automobiles would probably survive unscathed.

I'm still hanging on to my '65 with the FE though!
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 7:58:46 AM EDT



Originally Posted By RickNC:


EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.


Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?



I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.



What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 8:00:53 AM EDT
Originally Posted By TaylorWSO:
If that douche is a mil expert, then can he explain why the mil does not EMP proof all their shit?

Because its not important


Most of the aircraft I've worked that were supposed to be anywhere near a nuclear explosion do have EMP shielding. I.E. Bombers and Tankers.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 8:17:47 AM EDT
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By TaylorWSO:
If that douche is a mil expert, then can he explain why the mil does not EMP proof all their shit?

Because its not important


Most of the aircraft I've worked that were supposed to be anywhere near a nuclear explosion do have EMP shielding. I.E. Bombers and Tankers.


My inputs to this thread will be limited to what you just said.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 8:44:56 AM EDT


My tinfoil hat has the optional wire mesh liner and grounding cable for double redundency in the event of a EMP .
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 8:46:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Hornetmech:


My tinfoil hat has the optional wire mesh liner and grounding cable for double redundency in the event of a EMP .


Why? Do you have an electronic brain?
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 8:58:41 AM EDT
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


The only realistic way to generate an EMP effect that isn't incredibly localized is with a high altitude nuclear explosion.  If we're getting hit by nuclear devices detonating in the upper atmosphere over the United States, you've got bigger things to worry about than the EMP.  Namely, the resulting devastation from the rest of the nuclear devices that hit closer to home.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:02:31 AM EDT
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.

That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).

Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:12:26 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 9:13:30 AM EDT by jacuzz1]
While i tend to agree with you since I am more concerned with bio threats, an EMP event over my state in the dead of winter woild be veryvery inconvenient.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:13:42 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.

That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).



Whether or not you believe EMP is a real threat, don't understate the effects of no electricity.

How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.

Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:16:32 AM EDT
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.

That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).



Whether or not you believe EMP is a real threat, don't understate the effects of no electricity.

How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.

Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.


In any SHTF scenario, power is going down.  So who cares if its from an EMP or from something else.

It think that is why so few worry about EMPs.

Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:20:14 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 9:33:01 AM EDT by unclebbob]
I have the book, and absolutelty  was enthralled by it. I learned MUCH from this book also.
What prompted me to buy it, was I watched a 2 hour interview on C-SPAN with the author...literally the only thing Ive ever watched before or since
on that channel.  And for all yall who say its "nothing to worry about", "not gonna/cant happen", "not on my list of things to worry about",
well I can tell you as of last summer when that interview occured, the U.S. military was damned concerened about it.  There were several
of the highest ranking members of the military, and some congressmen who asked questions  and wholly agreed with the author
about the, according to them, VERY high possibility, of an EMP attack on this country. These men, and the author himself, all, to a man, said how utterly
unpreventable and easy it would be to do this, and that the intell community has heard of plots to do this for years.  They explained, and so does the author
on his website, how a small small bomb, small enough to fit on a small fishing trawler or in a shipping container,would be more than enough to really set us back
for quite some time.  These gents are EXPERTS and so is the author. He has testified in front of congress and is one of the few "go to men" on this subject.
It is NOT fear mongering or made up to sell his books. For all of you who poo poo the idea, well I know people who last Tuesday thought they were safe & sound, then lost their lives and homes and all they had on Wenesday.  This is ONE of MANY thing that could happen. I quarantee you that all of you here laughing at this possibility are the SAME ONES
who woulda joked, laughed and made fun of the idea of 2 airliners taking down the tallest buildings in America on Sept. 10th.
If you dont worry about it, good on you.  Youll be the ones I turn away when/if it happens.
Also...the " douche" HAS explained why the military doesnt EMP proof their stuff.  First off, some equipment IS EMP proofed.
The rest that isnt, these leaders say they have literally begged congress for money to EMP proof all necessary equipment, and have been denied funds.
Before you spout off ignorent remarks about something.. some here need to educate themselves to keep from making idiots of themselves. I doubt some of you read much from
the sound od some of these stupid comments. Ill listen to our military men  way the hell before I do anyone here.
And the reason you should care whether or not power goes down from EMP or not is, power can be restored from storms, tornadoes, ect, and that doesnt keep your car from starting and every single electronic thing from working. EMP destroys everything electronic, and there will be NO repair crews, police, medical aid, help of any sort coming for a long long time.
THAT is the difference, and why you should "care". Damn...do some of you even THINK before commenting?!
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:31:13 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.

That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).



Whether or not you believe EMP is a real threat, don't understate the effects of no electricity.

How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.

Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.


In any SHTF scenario, power is going down.  So who cares if its from an EMP or from something else.

It think that is why so few worry about EMPs.



I agree, but from your original post, you made it sound more like losing electricity was a mere inconvenience rather than a real threat.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:34:49 AM EDT
Originally Posted By unclebbob:
I have the book, and absolutelty  was enthralled by it. I learned MUCH from this book also.
What prompted me to buy it, was I watched a 2 hour interview on C-SPAN with the author...literally the only thing Ive ever watched before or since
on that channel.
And for all yall who say its "nothing to worry about", "not gonna/cant happen", "not on my list of things to worry about",
well I can tell you as of last summer when that interview occured, the U.S. military was damned concerened about it.  There were several
of the highest ranking members of the military, and some congressmen who asked questions  and wholly agreed with the author
about the, according to them, VERY high possibility, of an EMP attack on this country.

These men, and the author himself, all, to a man, said how utterly
unpreventable and easy it would be to do this, and that the intell community has heard of plots to do this for years.  They explained, and so does the author
on his website, how a small small bomb, small enough to fit on a small fishing trawler or in a shipping container,would be more than enough to really set us back
for quite some time.

These gents are EXPERTS and so is the author. He has testified in front of congress and is one of the few "go to men" on this subject.
It is NOT fear mongering or made up to sell his books. For all of you who poo poo the idea, well I know people who last Tuesday thought they were safe & sound, then lost their lives and homes and all they had on Wenesday.  This is ONE of MANY thing that could happen. I quarantee you that all of you here laughing at this possibility are the SAME ONES
who woulda joked, laughed and made fun of the idea of 2 airliners taking down the tallest buildings in America on Sept. 10th.
If you dont worry about it, good on you.  Youll be the ones I turn away when/if it happens.

Also...the " douche" HAS explained why the military doesnt EMP proof their stuff.  First off, some equipment IS EMP proofed.
The rest that isnt, these leaders say they have literally begged congress for money to EMP proof all necessary equipment, and have been denied funds.

Before you spout off ignorent remarks about something.. some here need to educate themselves to keep from making idiots of themselves. I doubt some of you read much from
the sound od some of these stupid comments. Ill listen to our military men  way the hell before I do anyone here.



First of all;  Isn't that format a little easier on the eyes.

Second;  Prioritize your preps.  If you have every situation that is more likely than an EMP covered.....Prep for an EMP.   If you can't get through 30 days without a paycheck, you are fucked no matter what and don't need to worry about anything.  

Put the big rocks in first.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:37:48 AM EDT
The main reason things got so bad in "One Second After" was the loss of transportation.  No transport meant no food production (tractors, and combines, and other farm type shit) and no way to transport what little could be grown in the rural regions without tractors, etc. to market where people could buy it.  

Real EMP does not work that way.  Real EMP would royally fuck up anything connected to a wall socket.  Probably fuck up the cell phone towers leaving your cell phone functioning, but useless.  There would probably be secondary effects from losing power like that , Japan has proved definitively that it is a bad thing when nuke plants lose power.  I doubt the refineries in the affected area would keep running immediately after.

The thing is our system is pretty robust.  If the refineries are not working we can use the strategic fuel reserves to keep the .mil and essential transport (read food production) running while we find sources of refined petroleum, most likely at very high prices, until we can cobble together some working refineries.  Communications would be pretty FUBARed.  We would not be able to pick up a phone and call California from Washington DC anymore, but then again they could not do that in 1860 either.  We could still send letters and the government would be able to communicate via couriers if need be for a while until they could get a telegraph system together.  

Worst thing would be the rioting and looting in the big cities, but since the National Guard's vehicles would still work those would not last long.  I also think the big cities would end up rationing food for a time until the big agribusinesses could cope with the damage to their grid tied infrastructure, but all in all I am sure America would manage to get through it without decending into the total anarchy described in "One Second After".
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:41:23 AM EDT
sneaking off to get the popcorn....

Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:42:15 AM EDT
There are some reference works out there on EMP effects, though there is plenty of rumor and innuendo as well, and some stuff that still is classified.  From the various non-class stuff I have read, I do think the effects in the book were exaggerated in scope.  The power grid itself is going to be flooded with point-source failures; probably way more than can be addressed in a few weeks.  Automobiles will generally not be as impacted as the book shows.  Civil aircraft may not be quite as bad off as described in the book, but I think most of the a/c in the air would probably crash or crash-land.  Small items like watches, phones etc are very susceptible to EMP, but are also very likely to be shielded inadvertently - exposed items will probably be damaged or destroyed; things sitting in a car or house may come off better.

The part of the book that is probably dead-on is the impact of losing the power grid nation-wide.  Our society is not set up to survive three months without power; lots of folks could not take three weeks!  The societal breakdown in that book definitely could happen in such an event.  Most towns with disaster plans will plan and stock assuming they will be getting outside aid in a few days, but in this scenario the entire country will be unable to do much for anyone for weeks or months.  Some areas will fare better than others, and the time of year this happens, and the weather, will have a major influence as well, but overall it could be a society-killing event.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:42:53 AM EDT
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By Dace:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.

Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?

I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.

What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?
 


If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.

That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).



Whether or not you believe EMP is a real threat, don't understate the effects of no electricity.

How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.

Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.


In any SHTF scenario, power is going down.  So who cares if its from an EMP or from something else.

It think that is why so few worry about EMPs.



I agree, but from your original post, you made it sound more like losing electricity was a mere inconvenience rather than a real threat.


For someone preparing it SHOULD only be an inconvenience.

Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:44:02 AM EDT
Originally Posted By stutzcattle:

Second;  Prioritize your preps.  If you have every situation that is more likely than an EMP covered.....Prep for an EMP.   If you can't get through 30 days without a paycheck, you are fucked no matter what and don't need to worry about anything.  

Put the big rocks in first.


There is a reason I prep for Zombies.  Basically if I can survive the night of the living dead I have pretty much everything else covered.

I am serious about that philosophy actually.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:46:55 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Aikibiker:
The main reason things got so bad in "One Second After" was the loss of transportation.  No transport meant no food production (tractors, and combines, and other farm type shit) and no way to transport what little could be grown in the rural regions without tractors, etc. to market where people could buy it.  

Real EMP does not work that way.  Real EMP would royally fuck up anything connected to a wall socket.  Probably fuck up the cell phone towers leaving your cell phone functioning, but useless.  There would probably be secondary effects from losing power like that , Japan has proved definitively that it is a bad thing when nuke plants lose power.  I doubt the refineries in the affected area would keep running immediately after.

The thing is our system is pretty robust.  If the refineries are not working we can use the strategic fuel reserves to keep the .mil and essential transport (read food production) running while we find sources of refined petroleum, most likely at very high prices, until we can cobble together some working refineries.  Communications would be pretty FUBARed.  We would not be able to pick up a phone and call California from Washington DC anymore, but then again they could not do that in 1860 either.  We could still send letters and the government would be able to communicate via couriers if need be for a while until they could get a telegraph system together.  

Worst thing would be the rioting and looting in the big cities, but since the National Guard's vehicles would still work those would not last long.  I also think the big cities would end up rationing food for a time until the big agribusinesses could cope with the damage to their grid tied infrastructure, but all in all I am sure America would manage to get through it without decending into the total anarchy described in "One Second After".


Refineries, food production? Exactly how is that going to work without electricity? This isn't the 1800's anymore.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:47:38 AM EDT
I live about 20 miles from Black Mountain where the story in the book takes place.....so the book hit home with me....the authors use or real landmarks and buildings, places etc....

the one thing no one talks about is "how to protect" your electronics from EMP.....

Loosing electricity is one thing but I have redundancy for that....generators, solar etc....but an EMP would kill them too I suppose....

SO...the real question is how to effectively safe guard your radio's, generator's etc...
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:48:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 9:49:20 AM EDT by Paul]
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:49:18 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Dace:

For someone preparing it SHOULD only be an inconvenience.



Already there brother
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:51:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 9:53:40 AM EDT by jdessell]




Originally Posted By mac130:



Originally Posted By Dace:



Originally Posted By topknot:





Originally Posted By RickNC:

EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.


Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here. I want to know what you base that decision on. Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?



I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown). However, I need to make an informed decision.



What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?





If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works? Electricity is what, 100 years old? Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years. You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work? Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility? I shouldn't.



That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).







Whether or not you believe EMP is a real threat, don't understate the effects of no electricity.



How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.



Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.

Yep. I'd be willing to say about 95% of the people here that are saying it is nothing to worry about have never seen civil unrest first-hand. I got to see it after Katrina and the one thing I took away from it was just how fragile society is. It amazed me just how little it takes for a whole city to come undone at the seams. Most people don't know how to react when even creature-comforts are taken away from them. Compound the problem with the fact that most people don't have more than a week's worth of groceries in their pantry and freezer and there you have the recipe for disaster.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:54:06 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Paul:
Every few months this comes up.

Most people thing the EMP is the boogie man and will kill everything from a flashlight to their pron computer.

I wouldn't be worried about the effects of the nukes lit off in upper orbit to do EMP but the ones that follow taking out 75-100 million Americans with low altitude bursts. The other side needs to worry about the return nukes from the deployed US Navy ballast missile submarines floating off their coast.

End of the World as We Know it and you'll have more things to worry about than your iPods and cell phones.


MAD is a good strategy against countries, but I think a rogue attack using EMP, or ground burst is a far more likely scenario.

Say from a container ship.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 9:57:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 10:03:31 AM EDT by Sugarfree]







Originally Posted By topknot:




Having finally acquired a copy of One Second After by William Forstchen - and finishing it last night, I am left with questions.
First, whenever the subject arises on ARF, the consensus seems to be that the threat is overblown in the book.  That is to say, the results of a series of EMPs (a nuke detonated in the upper atmosphere over the CONUS) would NOT knock out most everything with an integrated circuit in it.
Of course the book, and many others, including the military expert he leaned on to write this book state that the threat is quite real, and is being virtually ignored by those who are most equipped to do something about it (politicians).
Is this something that needs to be pushed by citizens (massive firemission?).
If you have not read the book, it is highly recommended.







1. it's theoretical and unpredictable and unless you have lots of missiles (only a handful of countries have big numbers) it's a wasted shot if it doesn't knock out the lights.  









2. most of the critical military systems I've seen have anti-jam circuits.  










3. nobody gives a fuck about your television or your car when it comes to nuclear fisticuffs










4. the govt is looking into the situation, as evidenced in the fact that congress had a commission report on the vulnerability of the US against these tactics.  







5. we have no money.  the USD is the only thing currently more useless than fried electronics.  





































 


 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 10:09:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 10:25:56 AM EDT by Shotty]
Originally Posted By AzSteven:
There are some reference works out there on EMP effects, though there is plenty of rumor and innuendo as well, and some stuff that still is classified.  From the various non-class stuff I have read, I do think the effects in the book were exaggerated in scope.  The power grid itself is going to be flooded with point-source failures; probably way more than can be addressed in a few weeks.  Automobiles will generally not be as impacted as the book shows.  Civil aircraft may not be quite as bad off as described in the book, but I think most of the a/c in the air would probably crash or crash-land.  Small items like watches, phones etc are very susceptible to EMP, but are also very likely to be shielded inadvertently - exposed items will probably be damaged or destroyed; things sitting in a car or house may come off better.

The part of the book that is probably dead-on is the impact of losing the power grid nation-wide.  Our society is not set up to survive three months without power; lots of folks could not take three weeks!  The societal breakdown in that book definitely could happen in such an event.  Most towns with disaster plans will plan and stock assuming they will be getting outside aid in a few days, but in this scenario the entire country will be unable to do much for anyone for weeks or months.  Some areas will fare better than others, and the time of year this happens, and the weather, will have a major influence as well, but overall it could be a society-killing event.


Flight controls are hydraulic. fuel control units in all jet airliners are hydro-mechanical, or electro-mechanical(Which become hydro-mechanical FCUs in case of electronic failure). Bottom line is a lack of electrical power is not going to cause any civilian aircraft to lose thrust, much less fall out of the sky.

ETA: Small piston driven aircraft could lose power. Their spark plugs are powered by magnetos, which could be susceptible to an EMP.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 10:28:32 AM EDT
I'd also like to point out; if someone is detonating nuclear bombs in the upper atmosphere, I would assume they'd be dropping lots of them on the ground too...
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 10:30:54 AM EDT
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 10:50:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 11:16:14 AM EDT by Skibane]
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By Agilt:
Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Ok.  Now, what do you base your statement on?  Have you read something to the contrary or is it your opinion?  If it's something you've read that has convinced you that it is "overblown", please give me a link so I can educate myself further.  Thanks.


The Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack is a good start. As an example of how the EMP threat is often exaggerated, here's an excerpt from Chapter 6, Page 115:



What those tests demonstrate is that automobiles are not nearly as vulnerable to EMP as is commonly believed - and there are other examples in the report.

Not to say that EMP isn't any threat - It's just a threat which has been greatly exaggerated in popular culture.

Additional reading:
Federation of American Scientists: Nuclear Weapon EMP Effects
Glasstone's Blog



Link Posted: 4/30/2011 11:08:12 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By Agilt:
Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Ok.  Now, what do you base your statement on?  Have you read something to the contrary or is it your opinion?  If it's something you've read that has convinced you that it is "overblown", please give me a link so I can educate myself further.  Thanks.


The Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack is a good start. As an example of how the EMP threat is often exaggerated, here's an excerpt from Chapter 6, Page 115:



What those tests demonstrate is that automobiles are not nearly as vulnerable to EMP as is commonly believed - and there are other examples in the report.

Not to say that EMP isn't any threat - It's just a threat which has been greatly exaggerated in popular culture.

Additional reading:
Federation of American Scientists: Nuclear Weapon EMP Effects
Glasstone's Blog





Isn't this just proof that you need to drag a chain from the axle of your car to help ground it and prevent catastrophic damage due to the increasing threat of EMP?
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:32:18 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Dace:



Originally Posted By topknot:




Originally Posted By RickNC:

EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.


Again, this is the type of thing I read OVER AND OVER here.  I want to know what you base that decision on.  Is it fact, or going with the groupthink here?



I'd love to take the stance you are taking and feel good about it (like it might actually be overblown).  However, I need to make an informed decision.



What did you read that convinced you it was hogwash?

 




If someone detonates a thermonuclear device over the USA, don't you think there will be a lot more things to worry about then if your TV works?  Electricity is what, 100 years old?  Humans have been around for tens of thousands of years.  You really think its a big deal if your radio and TV dont work?  Will it truly effect your chance of survivablility?  I shouldn't.



That's why it's overblown (in addition to the effect of an EMP on electorniucs being only hypothetical).





Haha, Dace - it's a LOT more than the tv being out man.  It collapses EVERYTHING in our modern society.  Buy the book and read it, then bump this thread with your opinion then, please.  It is a domino effect.  We are not set up anymore as a society (even in the country) to survive without the transportation network and Just In Time delivery.  Cities would have mass die offs.  No trains, no planes, no trucks or cars (except OLD pre electronic ones), no machines, nothing that has electronics.



To say that we'd have a lot worse to worry about misses the point.  An EMP strike is something that a small rogue nation like NK or Iran could pull off on their own.  They don't need to do a full scale nuke strike on the CONUS making the land uninhabitable for centuries.



Better to set off 2 or 3 in the upper atmosphere and knock out ALL things electronic.  Cripples the USA and we die off, mostly from starvation.  



Read the book.  Then I'm very interested in your take.



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:34:55 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Aikibiker:


The main reason things got so bad in "One Second After" was the loss of transportation.  No transport meant no food production (tractors, and combines, and other farm type shit) and no way to transport what little could be grown in the rural regions without tractors, etc. to market where people could buy it.  



Real EMP does not work that way.


Again, how do you know that?  Things I'm reading say otherwise.  What are you reading?



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:37:14 PM EDT
Originally Posted By RickNC:
EMP is pretty much at the bottom of my list of shit to worry about. Why so many of you guys even think about it is beyond me.


'cause it's like an explosion and shit.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:38:31 PM EDT



Originally Posted By AzSteven:


There are some reference works out there on EMP effects, though there is plenty of rumor and innuendo as well, and some stuff that still is classified.  From the various non-class stuff I have read, I do think the effects in the book were exaggerated in scope.  The power grid itself is going to be flooded with point-source failures; probably way more than can be addressed in a few weeks.  Automobiles will generally not be as impacted as the book shows.  Civil aircraft may not be quite as bad off as described in the book, but I think most of the a/c in the air would probably crash or crash-land.  Small items like watches, phones etc are very susceptible to EMP, but are also very likely to be shielded inadvertently - exposed items will probably be damaged or destroyed; things sitting in a car or house may come off better.



The part of the book that is probably dead-on is the impact of losing the power grid nation-wide.  Our society is not set up to survive three months without power; lots of folks could not take three weeks!  The societal breakdown in that book definitely could happen in such an event.  Most towns with disaster plans will plan and stock assuming they will be getting outside aid in a few days, but in this scenario the entire country will be unable to do much for anyone for weeks or months.  Some areas will fare better than others, and the time of year this happens, and the weather, will have a major influence as well, but overall it could be a society-killing event.


Thanks for your input Steven.  Interesting.  I think in the book the main character mentions that "whoever" did the EMP strike picked the perfect time of the year for maximum collapse (Early Spring).



You talk about towns and distaster plans, but I wonder how much food your average town really has stocked?  I'd say next to none.



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:40:47 PM EDT



Originally Posted By MoBrownCow:


I live about 20 miles from Black Mountain where the story in the book takes place.....so the book hit home with me....the authors use or real landmarks and buildings, places etc....



the one thing no one talks about is "how to protect" your electronics from EMP.....



Loosing electricity is one thing but I have redundancy for that....generators, solar etc....but an EMP would kill them too I suppose....



SO...the real question is how to effectively safe guard your radio's, generator's etc...


The author talks about looking on the internet for simple and inexpensive plans to make a Faraday cage.  I'm going to be doing that in the next week or two.
 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:44:11 PM EDT
Originally Posted By mac130:

How long would a city of millions last without power? Think about it.

Cities are only three meals away from all out rioting.


If nukes are flying then I doubt that those cities will still be there.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:45:14 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Paul:


Every few months this comes up.



Most people thing the EMP is the boogie man and will kill everything from a flashlight to their pron computer.



I wouldn't be worried about the effects of the nukes lit off in upper orbit to do EMP but the ones that follow taking out 75-100 million Americans with low altitude bursts. The other side needs to worry about the return nukes from the deployed US Navy ballast missile submarines floating off their coast.



End of the World as We Know it and you'll have more things to worry about than your iPods and cell phones.
*SPOILER*

You haven't read the book, have you?  The "enemy" did precisely what they intended.  They caused mass suffering and die off from starvation without destroying or making uninhabitable the land.  It was then ripe for conquest (and indeed in the book the Chinese had taken over the western half of the CONUS under the guise of "rendering aid").  In the book, the US also blindly struck back at Iran and NK, not knowing for sure who was responsible.



It doesn't have to be a full nuke assault.  The EMP can be the ends in itself.  It can be just as destructive and still leave the land usable for the enemy.  They just mop up.
 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:48:08 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Sugarfree:





Originally Posted By topknot:

Having finally acquired a copy of One Second After by William Forstchen - and finishing it last night, I am left with questions.



First, whenever the subject arises on ARF, the consensus seems to be that the threat is overblown in the book.  That is to say, the results of a series of EMPs (a nuke detonated in the upper atmosphere over the CONUS) would NOT knock out most everything with an integrated circuit in it.



Of course the book, and many others, including the military expert he leaned on to write this book state that the threat is quite real, and is being virtually ignored by those who are most equipped to do something about it (politicians).



Is this something that needs to be pushed by citizens (massive firemission?).



If you have not read the book, it is highly recommended.



1. it's theoretical and unpredictable and unless you have lots of missiles (only a handful of countries have big numbers) it's a wasted shot if it doesn't knock out the lights.  



2. most of the critical military systems I've seen have anti-jam circuits.  




3. nobody gives a fuck about your television or your car when it comes to nuclear fisticuffs




4. the govt is looking into the situation, as evidenced in the fact that congress had a commission report on the vulnerability of the US against these tactics.  




5. we have no money.  the USD is the only thing currently more useless than fried electronics.  



 


See response to similar remarks.





 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:49:58 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Shotty:


I'd also like to point out; if someone is detonating nuclear bombs in the upper atmosphere, I would assume they'd be dropping lots of them on the ground too...


I don't think so.   That's the old thinking.  



This refers to a rogue nation with only a couple or 3 missiles.  Maximum damage with those few assets?  EMP.



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 1:52:18 PM EDT



Originally Posted By Skibane:



Originally Posted By topknot:




Originally Posted By Agilt:

Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.



Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile


Ok.  Now, what do you base your statement on?  Have you read something to the contrary or is it your opinion?  If it's something you've read that has convinced you that it is "overblown", please give me a link so I can educate myself further.  Thanks.




The Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack is a good start. As an example of how the EMP threat is often exaggerated, here's an excerpt from Chapter 6, Page 115:








What those tests demonstrate is that automobiles are not nearly as vulnerable to EMP as is commonly believed - and there are other examples in the report.



Not to say that EMP isn't any threat - It's just a threat which has been greatly exaggerated in popular culture.



Additional reading:

Federation of American Scientists: Nuclear Weapon EMP Effects

Glasstone's Blog


Thanks for the link.



 
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 2:02:33 PM EDT
Originally Posted By mac130:
Originally Posted By Paul:
Every few months this comes up.

Most people thing the EMP is the boogie man and will kill everything from a flashlight to their pron computer.

I wouldn't be worried about the effects of the nukes lit off in upper orbit to do EMP but the ones that follow taking out 75-100 million Americans with low altitude bursts. The other side needs to worry about the return nukes from the deployed US Navy ballast missile submarines floating off their coast.

End of the World as We Know it and you'll have more things to worry about than your iPods and cell phones.


MAD is a good strategy against countries, but I think a rogue attack using EMP, or ground burst is a far more likely scenario.

Say from a container ship.

Epic fail.
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 2:11:27 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Skibane:
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By Agilt:
Overblown and way worse things to worry about that are a lot more pressing.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Ok.  Now, what do you base your statement on?  Have you read something to the contrary or is it your opinion?  If it's something you've read that has convinced you that it is "overblown", please give me a link so I can educate myself further.  Thanks.


The Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack is a good start. As an example of how the EMP threat is often exaggerated, here's an excerpt from Chapter 6, Page 115:



What those tests demonstrate is that automobiles are not nearly as vulnerable to EMP as is commonly believed - and there are other examples in the report.

Not to say that EMP isn't any threat - It's just a threat which has been greatly exaggerated in popular culture.

Additional reading:
Federation of American Scientists: Nuclear Weapon EMP Effects
Glasstone's Blog





THIS, I've read the book and they WAY over do it, you wont get an instant stone age, or the early 1900's. You'll still have a lot of stuff left.
Many objects already have some sort of partial shielding, like metal car bodies and/or are not delicate enough to take any damage.
Heck there's a storage rental facility near by where i live, its an all metal structure. so fact is, there will be MANY devices still working, the worst will be damage to the power grid, and disruptions to transportation. I can't say it will be a cake walk, but it is certainly no Armageddon.

Link Posted: 4/30/2011 3:10:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/30/2011 3:10:50 PM EDT by NathanJK]
Originally Posted By topknot:

Originally Posted By MoBrownCow:
I live about 20 miles from Black Mountain where the story in the book takes place.....so the book hit home with me....the authors use or real landmarks and buildings, places etc....

the one thing no one talks about is "how to protect" your electronics from EMP.....

Loosing electricity is one thing but I have redundancy for that....generators, solar etc....but an EMP would kill them too I suppose....

SO...the real question is how to effectively safe guard your radio's, generator's etc...

The author talks about looking on the internet for simple and inexpensive plans to make a Faraday cage.  I'm going to be doing that in the next week or two.
 


No need for a faraday cage, if an EMP comes just stick your iphone in the microwave.  You'll be A-OK!
Link Posted: 4/30/2011 4:13:01 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Aikibiker:
Originally Posted By stutzcattle:

Second;  Prioritize your preps.  If you have every situation that is more likely than an EMP covered.....Prep for an EMP.   If you can't get through 30 days without a paycheck, you are fucked no matter what and don't need to worry about anything.  

Put the big rocks in first.


There is a reason I prep for Zombies.  Basically if I can survive the night of the living dead I have pretty much everything else covered.

I am serious about that philosophy actually.


not a bad idea really
in a major shtf people are going to start acting like zombies or worse when the ones that weren't prepared start running out of stuff and start widespread looting or rioting
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