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Posted: 3/10/2015 11:50:17 AM EDT
I've never gambled in sports and there's something that I don't understand.

How do the powers-that-be (bookies?) handle situations where you have a team with a very large dedicated fan base playing a team that may have comparable chances with a much smaller fan base? The Yankess vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance.

I had a friend who swore up and down that he was always making money betting mid-game on the initial predictions. His theory was that changes that happened through the game were to correct a potential imbalance to where the middlemen could potentially lose money.

The reason this came to me is that I am looking for a good analogy for what I see in the stock market, where you're always seeing some talking head pushing one stock or another, when you know the company that they're pushing is fucked and the market is being manipulated.
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 11:54:30 AM EDT
It's gambling, flip a coin.

Unless you believe Vegas calls the refs and says change the outcome now!
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 11:59:02 AM EDT
Every sports gambler has a "theory".
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:05:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/10/2015 12:06:21 PM EDT by a555]
Well, I mean, if you have 10,000 people betting for team A, and 100 people betting for team B, how do the bets work? Are there odds when the teams are relatively evenly matched or is everyone betting against the house on things?
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:07:00 PM EDT

I have never really heard of the SIZE of a fan base being a factor in itself.
Home field advantage, yes its a factor taken into consideration but it goes both ways as naturally when a team plays at home they have an advantage in number of fans and factors such as noise level that goes along with that.
How well a team "travels" like in college football bowl games maybe a slight factor where your playing at a neutral site and who may have the biggest fan base show up.
Halftime bets are popular with experienced bettors since you have had a chance to watch how both teams are performing and have that to help make a decision on what the 2nd half may look like. Lots of times I find 2nd half lines not quite as sharp as the initial opening line.
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:13:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/10/2015 12:37:12 PM EDT by Nailcrusher]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By a555:
Well, I mean, if you have 10,000 people betting for team A, and 100 people betting for team B, how do the bets work? Are there odds when the teams are relatively evenly matched or is everyone betting against the house on things?
View Quote


If the number of bets coming in on "one side" are that uneven the line will move to get people to bet on the other team.
Say a football games opens at Team A at -7 over team B. If everyone bets on team A then the books will move the line to say like -10 to encourage people to take the 10 points and bet on team B.
The standard "commission" (also called juice, vig, etc) for a bookie or sportsbook is 10%. Sometimes slightly less, sometimes slightly more. All a bookie is trying to do is get half of the money bet on team A and half the money bet on team B so at the end of the day he can pay the winners with the losers money and take his 10% commission. (profit)
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:15:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/10/2015 12:16:33 PM EDT by Diesel]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By a555:
Well, I mean, if you have 10,000 people betting for team A, and 100 people betting for team B, how do the bets work? Are there odds when the teams are relatively evenly matched or is everyone betting against the house on things?
View Quote

I don't really understand what you're asking but lets say this. The Yankees with soandso pitching are a -200 favorite to the Rays who are +180. Meaning you have to bet 200 to win 100 on the yankees, and betting 100 wins you 180 on the Rays. If the Yankees are getting all the action then you adjust the odds to make the Rays a more favorable bet. Say after a hour of betting you have 90% of bets on the Yanks, you move them to -230 and the Rays to +210. Your goal as a bookie is to get an even 50/50 action on each team, of course that rarely happens, but that's your goal.
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:24:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/10/2015 12:28:36 PM EDT by Rustyprop]
"Here’s a tip when learning how to bet on basketball. The front of the jersey absolutely plays a role in setting lines. Duke is the best example when it comes to college basketball wagering. The Blue Devils are the Yankees of college basketball. The books know this and because Duke is Duke, their basketball lines are often inflated. Because of the animosity toward Duke, the public often can influence the line down, making for better value closer to game time. The Blue Devils are the most “public” team in college basketball betting. North Carolina and Kentucky are like that.

In the NBA, the most public team is the Los Angeles Lakers because they are always good, always on television and always have stars. Because of their popularity, it’s rare you will see the Lakers as a big NBA wagering underdog. Backers of public teams like to be frontrunners. This again is true in college. The Miami Heat are now a very public team with LeBron."
http://www.wageronsports.com/how-to-bet-on-sports/basketball/

Other teams that have a big betting fan base include
NY teams
Dallas Cowboys
Notre Dame football
Kentucky Basketball
Pittsburgh Steelers

Las Vegas has this all factored into the line.

Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:32:11 PM EDT
Originally Posted By a555:
I've never gambled in sports and there's something that I don't understand.

How do the powers-that-be (bookies?) handle situations where you have a team with a very large dedicated fan base playing a team that may have comparable chances with a much smaller fan base? The Yankess vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance.

I had a friend who swore up and down that he was always making money betting mid-game on the initial predictions. His theory was that changes that happened through the game were to correct a potential imbalance to where the middlemen could potentially lose money.

The reason this came to me is that I am looking for a good analogy for what I see in the stock market, where you're always seeing some talking head pushing one stock or another, when you know the company that they're pushing is fucked and the market is being manipulated.
View Quote


I'm not a sports better, but the part in red is confusing. Bookies will still take bets after the game starts?
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:35:49 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Nailcrusher:


If the number of bets coming in on "one side" are that uneven the line will move to get people to bet on the other team.
Say a football games opens at Team A at -7 over team B. If everyone bets on team A then the books will move the line to say like -10 to encourage people to take the 10 points and bet on team B.
The standard "commission" (also called juice, vig, etc) for a bookie or sportsbook is 10%. Sometimes slightly less, sometimes slightly more. All a bookie is trying to do is get half of the money bet on team A and half the money bet on team B so at the end of the day he can pay the winners with the loses money and take his 10% commission. (profit)
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Nailcrusher:
Originally Posted By a555:
Well, I mean, if you have 10,000 people betting for team A, and 100 people betting for team B, how do the bets work? Are there odds when the teams are relatively evenly matched or is everyone betting against the house on things?


If the number of bets coming in on "one side" are that uneven the line will move to get people to bet on the other team.
Say a football games opens at Team A at -7 over team B. If everyone bets on team A then the books will move the line to say like -10 to encourage people to take the 10 points and bet on team B.
The standard "commission" (also called juice, vig, etc) for a bookie or sportsbook is 10%. Sometimes slightly less, sometimes slightly more. All a bookie is trying to do is get half of the money bet on team A and half the money bet on team B so at the end of the day he can pay the winners with the loses money and take his 10% commission. (profit)


This.

To put it simply - The odds/line is there to try to induce an equal number of bets for either team and will be adjusted to accomplish this.
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:35:57 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TokerM:


I'm not a sports better, but the part in red is confusing. Bookies will still take bets after the game starts?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TokerM:
Originally Posted By a555:
I've never gambled in sports and there's something that I don't understand.

How do the powers-that-be (bookies?) handle situations where you have a team with a very large dedicated fan base playing a team that may have comparable chances with a much smaller fan base? The Yankess vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance.

I had a friend who swore up and down that he was always making money betting mid-game on the initial predictions. His theory was that changes that happened through the game were to correct a potential imbalance to where the middlemen could potentially lose money.

The reason this came to me is that I am looking for a good analogy for what I see in the stock market, where you're always seeing some talking head pushing one stock or another, when you know the company that they're pushing is fucked and the market is being manipulated.


I'm not a sports better, but the part in red is confusing. Bookies will still take bets after the game starts?


Not on the complete game but on certain quarters, halves etc as long as they have not started.
Like in football you can bet the entire game outcome, any of the 4 quarters individually, or just the 1st half or 2nd half.

Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:36:56 PM EDT
Take a second on you're home..... and dibs on ammo
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 12:40:51 PM EDT
OP what the fuck are you talking about?
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 1:22:59 PM EDT
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Originally Posted By Smitro:
OP what the fuck are you talking about?
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If you can't follow the conversation,.......
Link Posted: 3/10/2015 2:04:36 PM EDT
The spread will change to draw more money to either side to balance the betting. If everybody is betting on the Yankees the odds will favor the Rays more and more until enough people bet on the Rays to balance the book.
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