Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Posted: 10/30/2004 8:53:57 AM EDT
I think he still has it the OBL thing doesn't really concern me yeah its a black eye that we haven't caught him but it reminds people that he hates bush which is good.

The 8 marines might hurt bush though, that really sucks
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:55:49 AM EDT
Yes, he is going to be reelected.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:59:09 AM EDT
Bush is going to win...even if he doesn't carry Ohio...which would be a first in a long time for a Republican...
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:00:19 AM EDT
Bush WILL win, the majority of american individuals just dont like sKerry.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:02:16 AM EDT
Bush will win and do so by a bigger margin than most folks realize.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:02:59 AM EDT

Originally Posted By squeezecockerp7m8:
Bush is going to win...even if he doesn't carry Ohio...which would be a first in a long time for a Republican...



No Repub. has won without Ohio; from Abe Lincoln to present...
The way this is shaping up, it would be quite an accomplishment.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:04:47 AM EDT
He will win decisively


GM
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:05:02 AM EDT

Originally Posted By spm681:
Bush will win and do so by a bigger margin than most folks realize.




I want to believe that, like no one's business...
But, there are some wierd internal polls that bother me, like the Right Direction/Wrong Direction poll, that is 41% right / 53% wrong.
I think it will be close, and Bush will win, but not as close as 2000.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:05:20 AM EDT
yes
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:07:40 AM EDT
Decisively.

Here, use these for a pacifier - www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:08:31 AM EDT
My election prediction based on over a month of vigilantly viewing electoral maps

BUSH:

AK, HI, AZ, NM, NV, UT, TX, CO, ID, WY, MT, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, TN, KY, VA, WV, OH, IN, MI, PA, NJ, NH (347 votes)

KERRY:

CA, OR, WA, MN, WI, IL, NY, DE, VT, DC, MD, CT, RI, MA, ME (191 votes)
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:08:37 AM EDT
Yep.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:08:38 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:11:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By spm681:
Bush will win and do so by a bigger margin than most folks realize.




+1
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:12:26 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 9:12:38 AM EDT by Greenhorn]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Listen and listen carefully!

While it is true that no Republican has ever won without taking Ohio, it is simply not true that every Republican president has NEEDED Ohio to win. Go back to Lincoln and tell me no Republican president has won by more than the number of Ohio electoral votes. There have been numerous examples where the Republicans could have won quite handily without Ohio's electoral vote. People, when claims like this are made you need to ask questions and take a hard look at what is really at issue. People make this argument as to point out without Ohio Bush CAN'T win... that is a bullsjit argument.



Ditto. Take any democrat stronghold, like California or Ney York. They constantly win it, but since lots of republicans have become president, it didn't necessarily help the democrats.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:13:08 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 9:14:39 AM EDT by spm681]

I want to believe that, like no one's business...
But, there are some wierd internal polls that bother me, like the Right Direction/Wrong Direction poll, that is 41% right / 53% wrong.
I think it will be close, and Bush will win, but not as close as 2000



Those don't mean anything this election. Any other election in the past and Bush would be toast. The numbers that get Bush elected are

Better leader-----------------up by double digits
Better for the war on terror----up by double digits
more honest------------------up by double digits



Bush is going to win...even if he doesn't carry Ohio...which would be a first in a long time for a Republican...



If Bush does lose Ohio, he loses the election. If Ohio goes so will Iowa and Wisconcin. I think Bush will win or lose all three of these states. I could be wrong, my wife is constantly telling me I'm wrong so what do I know

I'm very confident in a Bush win.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:13:37 AM EDT
YES
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:18:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 9:18:47 AM EDT by Greenhorn]
Also, CA, OR, WA, MN, and WI are all within 7% or less of a tie according to the polls listed by www.electoral-vote.com. Especially taking into account the margin of error, those states concievably could go to Bush.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:19:17 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:21:11 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 9:21:46 AM EDT by Leisure_Shoot]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Listen and listen carefully!

While it is true that no Republican has ever won without taking Ohio, it is simply not true that every Republican president has NEEDED Ohio to win. Go back to Lincoln and tell me no Republican president has won by more than the number of Ohio electoral votes. There have been numerous examples where the Republicans could have won quite handily without Ohio's electoral vote. People, when claims like this are made you need to ask questions and take a hard look at what is really at issue. People make this argument as to point out without Ohio Bush CAN'T win... that is a bullsjit argument.



Perhaps the bigger picture is Ohio is a pretty close representation of the voter population, by state, or Electoral College, more specifically.
So however it leans is a reflection of how the other states tend, as well.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:25:18 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:27:06 AM EDT
right now bush has a small edge, but this one will still be close.

i dont know where alot of you guys get off saying he will win huge. i would like to beleive it, but it simply is not the reality.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:27:37 AM EDT

Originally Posted By NYPatriot:

Originally Posted By spm681:
Bush will win and do so by a bigger margin than most folks realize.




+1



I beg to differ. But I hope I'm wrong.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:27:59 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 9:29:07 AM EDT by Leisure_Shoot]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Nope, the economy of Ohio is lagging behind the rest of the nation. Hell its lagging behind the other states in that region.



Not everywhere. Thankfully.
Obviously the steel areas leave a lot to be desired, and Toledo has pushed out as much business as possible with their ridiculous liberal policies.
But, Columbus and Cincinnati are rolling, again.
How do I know? Try hiring in Columbus right now.
It's hard work.
Very Hard.
We can't even get the usual European immigrant labor.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:28:08 AM EDT

You're wrong, Iowa and Wisconsin are doing better economically than Ohio... especially Wisconsin. Traditional logic is out the window this time foks.



OK you win that argument. I don't think Bush is going to lose Ohio for what it's worth. GOTV will win Ohio, I have been hearing some reporters saying that privately the Republicans are worried about Ohio. From what I have read Republicans underpreformed in Ohio in 2000 due to low turnout. Ohio was supposed to go 12 points in Bush's favor and it went four.

I think the Republicans so called "private" worries are being placed into the media to help motivate the Republican base and get them to turn out. The guy who does the Horse Race Blog says the Republicans are organized down to the man in each precinct.

Bottom line, I think the Republicans turn out and Bush takes Ohio.

and Wisconcin
and Iowa
and Minnesota
maybe Michigan
and definately New Mexico
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:29:56 AM EDT
and Hawaii
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:30:25 AM EDT

Hanoi-John will succeed at stealing it through massive voter-fraud and litigation.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:31:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By spm681:
Bush will win and do so by a bigger margin than most folks realize.




You took the words right out of my mouth. These polls, while entertaining, don't really mean that much. Tuesday is going to be the truth-teller, and I think people are going to be surprised at how NOT CLOSE the election is going to be. Bush will get 4 more years.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:34:17 AM EDT
If your worried about Ohio read this article form the Horse Race Blog. I posted it before but I don't know if most people read it.

Theorizing about the OH Ground Game
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:34:42 AM EDT
Yes. Bush will win.

Duh.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:35:14 AM EDT

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
Hanoi-John will succeed at stealing it through massive voter-fraud and litigation.




If it happens, the largely Republican State Legislatures, will have to certify the electoral votes, as happened in Florida, but was not allowed to play out completely. Then who will be accused of "stealing" the election? Let's just hope it is decisive enough to stop the lawyers from having any traction.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:36:36 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mattsd:
right now bush has a small edge, but this one will still be close.

i dont know where alot of you guys get off saying he will win huge. i would like to beleive it, but it simply is not the reality.

"Reality"?

CA Recall Election / Schwarzeneggar win, '02 Jeb re-election in FLA - BOTH cases, mainstream media polls, Zogby, all the rest of the Dem-slobbering polling agencies all managed to post polls showing strong Dem wins, when the "Reality" was strong Dem LOSSES. Their polling numbers are worth SHIT.
When they all starting polling dead even or Bush +2-5 - It's going to be a blowout.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:42:36 AM EDT
Bush MUSTwin! I hope his win is big enough to shut all those Kerry supporters out there.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 9:47:45 AM EDT

CA Recall Election / Schwarzeneggar win, '02 Jeb re-election in FLA - BOTH cases, mainstream media polls, Zogby, all the rest of the Dem-slobbering polling agencies all managed to post polls showing strong Dem wins, when the "Reality" was strong Dem LOSSES. Their polling numbers are worth SHIT.
When they all starting polling dead even or Bush +2-5 - It's going to be a blowout.




In addition in 2002 the Dems under preformed in GOTV and the Reps exceeded it. Now I'm not sure you can connect 02 to 04 as the dems seemed to be motivated and are counting on new voter registration to carry the day, here is what James Carville said on that


Asked about the chances that newly registered voters would prove key to winning an election, Democratic political strategist James Carville once said: "You know what they call a candidate who's counting on a lot of new voters? A loser."



Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:03:12 AM EDT
I think HOPE that Bush will pull it off , but it's going to be close .

Historically , Incumbents with less then a 50% approval rating will
lose 1 out of 3 times . Bush is at 48% .
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:13:00 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:16:44 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Greenhorn:
Also, CA, OR, WA, MN, and WI are all within 7% or less of a tie according to the polls listed by www.electoral-vote.com. Especially taking into account the margin of error, those states concievably could go to Bush.



I don't think there is much chance Bush will win Oregon. and i live here.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:22:36 AM EDT
someone needs to tell me to snap the f@ck out of it...but lately I've been thinking that if Kerry gets elected I'll take a medical. I've been on a profile for a while anyway, since a spinal injury about 2 months ago. I'm just coming off of it, and I'm READY to do SUMTIN.
Lately I figure that if that many people vote for him, then nobody cares about the military or what we are fighting for. so why should i keep busting my ass?
I know this is wrong, and i'll most likely keep doing what i do, b/c i think the world of the guys i work with. But if he gets elected, i won't re-enlist. well i might, but GOD DAMNIT. Fuckit. I'll re-enlist...but if he passes the big ban i'm gone.

Someone post somthing to make me feel better.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:26:52 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:30:00 AM EDT

I think Bush will loose ohio and the election.

He hasn't even tried here in over a month.

Ad in massive fraud & I will be very surprised if he wins.



Read my above post with the link to the Horse Race Blog and then come back and tell me if you still think Bush will lose Ohio
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:34:16 AM EDT
FOUR MORE YEARS!!!

I think that it's gonna' be close. And it's gonna' be challenged again. There will be protests and possibly civil unrest when GWB wins. But I truly believe that we will get...

FOUR MORE YEARS!!!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:34:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 10:44:01 AM EDT by chrome1]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By chrome1:
I think HOPE that Bush will pull it off , but it's going to be close .

Historically , Incumbents with less then a 50% approval rating will
lose 1 out of 3 times . Bush is at 48% .



Jesus Christ, several polls have him above 50%. Depends on who you are looking at.



48% is the Average of all the approval rating polls . I never trust a single poll .

Unless you have info that I haven’t seen ?

ETA

The last 2 incumbents to lose , Bush Sr and Carter had approval ratings in the mid 30's
in late Oct .
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:36:55 AM EDT
I'm in Ohio..... voting for Bush. I have to say I'm down in the SW corner which is pretty conservative. Factoring in Northern Ohio where Kerry support is very strong I think Kerry has the edge right now. Bush is going to need something to happen in order to win Ohio at this point.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:39:44 AM EDT
There sure are alot of people on this board that I would bever want to have at a political rally.


Some of you guys might as well shoot yourself with your negative attitudes.


45 states motha fuckas.

SGtar15
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:41:05 AM EDT
I love you, sgtAR15.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:42:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By 30calTBLkid:
I love you, sgtAR15.



Careful kid, he will take you seriously.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:45:56 AM EDT

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
There sure are alot of people on this board that I would bever want to have at a political rally.
SGtar15



bever? anyhow, this isn't a political rally. I voted over a week ago, for bush, just for the record. I think bush will win 310-330.

but i still have strong doubts that my state will be for him.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:47:50 AM EDT

Originally Posted By danonly:
I think bush will win 310-330.



Am I missing something here?
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:48:10 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:49:59 AM EDT
Yes.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:29:05 AM EDT


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted By 30calTBLkid:
I love you, sgtAR15.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Careful kid, he will take you seriously.




Hey, I met the guy at the first gunstock...I am well aware of the...Awww shit, so he plays with dolls?
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Top Top