Here are the choices:
1) Complete victory, democracy, liberty, and eternal happiness as we dreamed
2) We decide it isn't worth it and just quit. Endless civil war and chaos between the factions
3) We leave and another Saddam takes over, same way as last time
4) We establish democracy and leave and they voluntarily elect some ayatollah or someone just as bad as Saddam.
5) Some other result. Explain the other result.
The reason I ask is because 1) if you look at the possibilities, not many of them are in our favor; and 2) I haven't heard anyone give a convincing explanation yet for how we get people to get along who have hated each other for the last thousand years or so and still continually fight about stuff that (to me, anyway) is completely irrational bullshit. Hell, they can't even agree on a constitution that they all think is fair.
Moreover, whenever I ask someone to explain how we locate and kill all the bad guys, and keep Iraq safe forever, all I get is dead silence. I can see a convincing case for eternal chaos or another Saddam/ayatollah, myself. Does anyone have a convincing case for a good result?
Is this going to work out any better than our experience with the Shah of Iran? If so, how?