Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
Posted: 9/27/2011 10:47:25 PM EST
I'm doing some research for my thesis, and all EE search results from August to mid November 2003 showed no results. They appear to resume mid November. Is this an archive glitch or did Arfcom shut down the EE? This sucks.
Link Posted: 9/27/2011 10:57:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/27/2011 10:57:36 PM EST by JBlitzen]
I've gotta know, wtf is your thesis on? Also, be careful, you're just about at 20k posts.
Link Posted: 9/27/2011 11:10:36 PM EST

Originally Posted By JBlitzen:
I've gotta know, wtf is your thesis on? Also, be careful, you're just about at 20k posts.

Main goal is to determine the impact of the obama election on the demand for AR15 rifles.

It's really hard to get a good sample size. And God damn going though ten years of EE ads is tedious.

Expect lots of posts about my senior thesis. There are lots of of things I "know" about the gun market from being a long time participant, but can't quantify it. For this I may try some online surveys.
Link Posted: 9/27/2011 11:14:51 PM EST
Gotcha. Also look into quarterly reports for publicly traded gun companies, like S&W and Ruger.
Link Posted: 9/27/2011 11:45:09 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:00:07 AM EST

Originally Posted By osprey21:
I don't recall it being down.

hmm. I'll try a search for something other than bushmaster. It seems odd that there was a healthy supply of bushmasters until August 31st and then nothing until late November 2003.

On a different note, this sure brings back memories of a terrible time (just finished averaging the prices for pre AWB expiration bushmasters).
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:08:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By Couch-Commando:

Originally Posted By JBlitzen:
I've gotta know, wtf is your thesis on? Also, be careful, you're just about at 20k posts.

Main goal is to determine the impact of the obama election on the demand for AR15 rifles.

It's really hard to get a good sample size. And God damn going though ten years of EE ads is tedious.

Expect lots of posts about my senior thesis. There are lots of of things I "know" about the gun market from being a long time participant, but can't quantify it. For this I may try some online surveys.

I posted a thread some time ago asking when people bought their first AR. http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1105538_When_did_you_acquire_your_first_AR_.html

The poll doesn't show up in the archives for some reason.

My dates were 70's, 80's, 1990-Sept 1993, Sept 1993 - Sept 2003, Sept 2003 to 2008, 2008 to present.

If my memory serves me right, the largest population was in the 2008 to present.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:12:46 AM EST

Originally Posted By Ironmaker:

Originally Posted By Couch-Commando:

Originally Posted By JBlitzen:
I've gotta know, wtf is your thesis on? Also, be careful, you're just about at 20k posts.

Main goal is to determine the impact of the obama election on the demand for AR15 rifles.

It's really hard to get a good sample size. And God damn going though ten years of EE ads is tedious.

Expect lots of posts about my senior thesis. There are lots of of things I "know" about the gun market from being a long time participant, but can't quantify it. For this I may try some online surveys.

I posted a thread some time ago asking when people bought their first AR. http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1105538_When_did_you_acquire_your_first_AR_.html

The poll doesn't show up in the archives for some reason.

My dates were 70's, 80's, 1990-Sept 1993, Sept 1993 - Sept 2003, Sept 2003 to 2008, 2008 to present.

If my memory serves me right, the largest population was in the 2008 to present.

Once I finish up with Bushmaster, I might do a practice run of the model and post graphs. So far the results are pretty cool. Definite price explosion in late September 2004. 2008 will be the real test.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:12:46 AM EST
Originally Posted By Ironmaker:
I posted a thread some time ago asking when people bought their first AR. http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1105538_When_did_you_acquire_your_first_AR_.html

The poll doesn't show up in the archives for some reason.

My dates were 70's, 80's, 1990-Sept 1993, Sept 1993 - Sept 2003, Sept 2003 to 2008, 2008 to present.

If my memory serves me right, the largest population was in the 2008 to present.

Sampling bias.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:28:55 AM EST
Thought I remembered this.. changing to different format or something?

Or should I lay off the drugs?...
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:42:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By tivoli410:
Thought I remembered this.. changing to different format or something?

Or should I lay off the drugs?...
Yeah, I was going to use shotgun news, but then in my last thread a member suggested I just use the EE instead.

It is proving to be an excellent strategy.

Link Posted: 9/28/2011 12:51:40 AM EST
A thesis, focusing on a single brand?

What if the manufacturer had issues, like a down production line?
Or what if they went full retard and pissed people off for a while?

I think to have any scientific merit, you should have at least three different brands.
Two brands would need a referee in the event of a significant difference between just the two.

Link Posted: 9/28/2011 2:19:05 AM EST

Originally Posted By JBlitzen:
Originally Posted By Ironmaker:
I posted a thread some time ago asking when people bought their first AR. http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1105538_When_did_you_acquire_your_first_AR_.html

The poll doesn't show up in the archives for some reason.

My dates were 70's, 80's, 1990-Sept 1993, Sept 1993 - Sept 2003, Sept 2003 to 2008, 2008 to present.

If my memory serves me right, the largest population was in the 2008 to present.

Sampling bias.

Yeah, I know. I wasn't writing a thesis, I was just playing around.

Link Posted: 9/28/2011 2:32:24 AM EST
I was buying a lot from the EE during that time. There is no way it was down.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 6:02:28 AM EST
I'll try that time frame later today. I may have been entering something wrong.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 6:08:48 AM EST
I think in that time frame their was a huge influx of new companies offering lower receivers. Bushmaster may have gone on the wayside.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 6:09:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
A thesis, focusing on a single brand?

What if the manufacturer had issues, like a down production line?
Or what if they went full retard and pissed people off for a while?

I think to have any scientific merit, you should have at least three different brands.
Two brands would need a referee in the event of a significant difference between just the two.


No, I'm going to use at least 6. Maybe more. Haven't decided yet.

Right now the list is Colt, Bushmaster, Armalite, Rock River, DPMS and Olympic.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 6:12:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By alexanderredhook:
I think in that time frame their was a huge influx of new companies offering lower receivers. Bushmaster may have gone on the wayside.

No, I think there is an archive problem. I also tried it with Colt and got no results.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 6:17:12 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 7:25:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/28/2011 7:25:27 AM EST by Bubbatheredneck]
I never recall EE being down.


The only real 'interruption' I can ever recall was the move from the old board to the new one in 2000/2001.

Link Posted: 9/28/2011 7:32:05 AM EST
Originally Posted By Couch-Commando:


Expect lots of posts about my senior thesis. There are lots of of things I "know" about the gun market from being a long time participant, but can't quantify it. For this I may try some online surveys.



A bit off topic, but be careful not to introduce bias into your study. It sounds like you already are.

If the data doesn't show what you expect, report it as it is and try to determine why it doesn't look like you expect, but don't keep sampling and tweaking until it says what you want. There may be a problem in your experimental design, in your data collection methodology, in the sample(s) you've chosen, etc.

Good luck, and congratulations on nearing the end of your studies.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 9:49:35 AM EST

Originally Posted By red_on_black:
Originally Posted By Couch-Commando:


Expect lots of posts about my senior thesis. There are lots of of things I "know" about the gun market from being a long time participant, but can't quantify it. For this I may try some online surveys.



A bit off topic, but be careful not to introduce bias into your study. It sounds like you already are.

If the data doesn't show what you expect, report it as it is and try to determine why it doesn't look like you expect, but don't keep sampling and tweaking until it says what you want. There may be a problem in your experimental design, in your data collection methodology, in the sample(s) you've chosen, etc.

Good luck, and congratulations on nearing the end of your studies.

I've gone over data collection with my professors. They already know that bias may be a problem, so they know to correct me if I do something stupid.

So far I'm differentiating between NIB and like new to see what happens. I'm only counting stock rifles for simplicity, am only counting rifles that have "SOLD" or "SPF" in the ad and rifles with less than 1000 rounds down the pipe. I was going to keep it at rifles under 100 rounds, but there simply aren't enough ads to get a good average that way unfortunately.

ARFCOM is a great source since it fully captures the shocks in the market.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 9:54:09 AM EST
Originally Posted By JBlitzen:
I've gotta know, wtf is your thesis on? Also, be careful, you're just about at 20k posts.


Pshhh overrated. I passed 20k posts and never realized it until 20 posts later.
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 9:56:40 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/28/2011 10:11:29 AM EST
What program are you using to run your data? Don't use SPSS, it is a pain in the ass.
Link Posted: 9/30/2011 6:55:06 PM EST
graphical illustrations of what I have so far.

Total quantity of background checks conducted since 2002.



AR15.com EE bushmaster prices for standard configuration factory rifles, counting only post ban before september 13th 2004 and only no bans afterwards.

Link Posted: 9/30/2011 8:52:34 PM EST
What is wrong with the ATF data?
Link Posted: 9/30/2011 9:06:11 PM EST
Back in 2003 I was more into AKs than ARs.
Link Posted: 9/30/2011 9:23:37 PM EST
Wasn't there a good bit of data lost around that time?
Link Posted: 10/1/2011 4:30:54 AM EST
So I assume the spikes in NICS every years are Christmas and tax return time?
Link Posted: 10/1/2011 4:38:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By Ironmaker:
So I assume the spikes in NICS every years are Christmas and tax return time?

I like to think the big spikes are for election day.
Link Posted: 10/1/2011 4:43:01 AM EST
I don't recall it being closed down.
Top Top