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9/22/2017 12:11:25 AM
Posted: 8/30/2005 1:26:51 AM EDT

severe weather threat areas


Tornado risk areas


...CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PER NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANT KATRINA
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SW OF BNA INTO CNTRL KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND JUST TO THE W OF OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO ERN
PA. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WILL
MAINTAIN BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1
KM SRH OF 200-500 M2/S2/ FROM LOW TRACK EWD INTO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AND
ATLANTIC COAST...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED
WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.

OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...SUPERPOSITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE ON
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND
STABILIZES. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS
ALONG AND E OF LOW TRACK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.



www.spc.noaa.gov/products/
Link Posted: 8/30/2005 3:27:14 AM EDT
Public Severe Weather Outlook


ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 301010
MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-301815-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 301010Z - 301815Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MARYLAND PANHANDLE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC.

AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING ONCE THE SUN RISES AND HEATS THE SURFACE. AS
FURTHER HEATING AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NORTHEAST OF
THERE...WE EXPECT TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THOUGH THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SMALL...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF AFFECTING SEVERAL COUNTIES GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS. THE
MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
EXTEND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS.. 08/30/2005

$$
Link Posted: 8/30/2005 3:34:26 AM EDT
Great, replay of Ivan from last year. I think Ivan spawned something along the lines of 25 tornados here in Virginia. Two of them crossed in front of my parents house.
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