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Posted: 10/7/2004 6:05:17 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:09:03 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:09:11 AM EST
Given modern health care, I doubt the 1918 strain would have the same lethality today that it did then.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:10:45 AM EST
My Grandfather survived it. His brother didn't.


I hope I got alot of his genes.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:12:45 AM EST
nothing to see here, move along.........
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:20:50 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 6:24:17 AM EST by The_Macallan]

Originally Posted By shotar:
Why is it that every time I hear about one of these things I start seeing John Kerry's face and hearing Sympathy for the devil in my head?

Sympathy

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:21:45 AM EST

Originally Posted By 1shott:
nothing to see here, move along.........



You can disregard this man's post, since he is having to "cowboy up" in order to deal with OU's defeat in a few days.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:23:23 AM EST

Originally Posted By shotar:
Why is it that every time I hear about one of these things I start seeing John Kerry's face and hearing Sympathy for the devil in my head?



Beware of the Walking Man
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:29:55 AM EST
Yeah, I thought the same thing. Two thoughts came to mind: the Stand, which I just read about a month ago, and the microfilmed copy of my great-grandmother's death notice during the Spanish Flu epidemic. My grandfather was made an orphan by that epidemic, as he was born in 1918.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:29:56 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:47:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

Originally Posted By 1shott:
nothing to see here, move along.........



You can disregard this man's post, since he is having to "cowboy up" in order to deal with OU's defeat in a few days.




, you are a funny man, BUT then again, having your ass handed to you for the last 4 years, I guess you have to have a sense of humor....
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:54:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By shotar:
Why is it that every time I hear about one of these things I start seeing John Kerry's face and hearing Sympathy for the devil in my head?



Help me out here, what does this story have to do with John Kerry?
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:54:52 AM EST
The thing is the Spanish Flu would not travel like it did in 1918 in the US.

No large military camps
No public transportation to speek of
Cleaner cities
Very little tennement housing.
Better access to hospitals and medical care
Better clenliness in hospitals themselves- its possilbe that that particular flu, and flu being a virus not a bacteria, was not entirely killed off by steam sterilization in use then, but today every medical impliment is disposable, and sterilized by radiation.

You would need something that was airborne AND had a long period of contagous latency (so it would be impossible to tell who was infected except by those who they had contact with)
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:56:47 AM EST
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 6:58:30 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:01:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.



That is a severe exaggeration.

1918 was the last BAD international disease outbreak. But it was scarecely the Black Death, especially in the US. In war ravaged Europe, and ESPECALLY in Russia it was much worse.

Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:03:13 AM EST
Gee, and 50% of the flu vaccine for this year is gone.....
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:07:00 AM EST
That's like playing with fire isn't it? Why would they want to re-create one of the deadliest virus of the 20th century.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:07:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By phatmax:
Gee, and 50% of the flu vaccine for this year is gone.....



Since the Flu strain from 1918 has never been identified, odds are any flu vaccene available would not work...
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:09:41 AM EST
What was that quote from Jurassic Park? Dr Malcomb said it...

'The were too obsessed with whether they COULD, they didn't stop to think whether they SHOULD'

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:10:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By badeffect10:
That's like playing with fire isn't it? Why would they want to re-create one of the deadliest virus of the 20th century.



In order to make a vaccene.

It could appear again, and it has never been identified. There are no samples, it is only "known" from its effects, not its biology. No way existed in 1918/19 to take its "snapshot".

Trying to reverse engineer it is also a long shot, you would make a flue virus but you could never be sure you made the RIGHT flu virus.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:10:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.



That is a severe exaggeration.

1918 was the last BAD international disease outbreak. But it was scarecely the Black Death, especially in the US. In war ravaged Europe, and ESPECALLY in Russia it was much worse.

Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Stanford disagrees with your assessment. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million people died from this disease. Remember, there were only 90 million people in the US at the time, so it would be the equivalent of wiping out approx 1/2 the US population. Read here: www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ for a more detailed look.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:13:58 AM EST

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.



That is a severe exaggeration.

1918 was the last BAD international disease outbreak. But it was scarecely the Black Death, especially in the US. In war ravaged Europe, and ESPECALLY in Russia it was much worse.

Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Stanford disagrees with your assessment. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million people died from this disease. Remember, there were only 90 million people in the US at the time, so it would be the equivalent of wiping out approx 1/2 the US population. Read here: www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ for a more detailed look.



I don't care who put their name on it that statment is a JOAK. Between 20 and 40 million people WORLD WIDE died from the virus and the US had well over 120 million people in the country at the 1920 Census.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:22:44 AM EST
An outbreak of Avian flu would be a severe Pandemic and if a strain arose which is easily transmissmable in humans many would die. Further, it might spread over the world rapidly if not quickly contained(doubtful). Most would survive though and modern antivirals would be helpful if available in sufficient number.

I don't think it has been back due to my understanding of various strains and what has been typed from old specimens. If someone knows different I'd sure like to know.

They talk alot about how the Great Flu Pandemic killed more of the young and healthy than the old, as is typical, and I have a couple of hypotheses about this:

--First, I would expect that GI's in crowded conditions would have a very high infectious dose when exposed. An absolute disaster. There are still occassional outbreaks of Meningitis in Recruit Depots and if SARS ever gets going, watch out. I expect it will. Viruses are incredible little bundles of chemical mischief and cannot really be called living.

--Second, it would make sense given the scenario that unfolded that many of the elderly were probably infected with a close strain, matching perhaps in the Hemagglutinin protein, at some point in their life.

Always remember with any ifectious disease that infectious dose is important. If small enough you will not even become ill. If great enough your immune system can be rapidly overwhelmed.

I studied Virology extensively in my undergrad microbiology training and worked most of my time at Mayo in their Virology lab. Fascinating little buggers.

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:23:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:
Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Stanford disagrees with your assessment. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million people died from this disease. Remember, there were only 90 million people in the US at the time, so it would be the equivalent of wiping out approx 1/2 the US population. Read here: www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ for a more detailed look.



I don't care who put their name on it that statment is a JOAK. Between 20 and 40 million people WORLD WIDE died from the virus and the US had well over 120 million people in the country at the 1920 Census.



You seem to think this was an extended event... it wasn't. It was 20 to 40 million in ONE YEAR. All from the same disease. That made it more deadly than the Black Death, which lasted 4 years, as the 1918 pandemic killed more people overall in 1/4th the time. An event like that today would cause mass panic, and some governments would fall. If you haven't noticed, there are alot more people today, living in close proximity to each other, esp. in the cities. And we haven't had much success in 'curing' viruses. Other than a hit or miss vaccine, the only treatments for influenza are supportive, vice active. Not very encouraging, is it?
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:30:20 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 7:36:50 AM EST by ArmdLbrl]

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:
Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Stanford disagrees with your assessment. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million people died from this disease. Remember, there were only 90 million people in the US at the time, so it would be the equivalent of wiping out approx 1/2 the US population. Read here: www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ for a more detailed look.



I don't care who put their name on it that statment is a JOAK. Between 20 and 40 million people WORLD WIDE died from the virus and the US had well over 120 million people in the country at the 1920 Census.



You seem to think this was an extended event... it wasn't. It was 20 to 40 million in ONE YEAR. All from the same disease. That made it more deadly than the Black Death, which lasted 4 years, as the 1918 pandemic killed more people overall in 1/4th the time. An event like that today would cause mass panic, and some governments would fall. If you haven't noticed, there are alot more people today, living in close proximity to each other, esp. in the cities. And we haven't had much success in 'curing' viruses. Other than a hit or miss vaccine, the only treatments for influenza are supportive, vice active. Not very encouraging, is it?



40 MILLION PEOPLE DID NOT DIE IN THE US!!!

That would have been a THIRD of the countries population then, IT WAS NOT THAT BAD here.

The official death toll was LESS than 3 quarters of a million, but it was almost 4 times the number of Americans killed in combat in that war.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:34:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
And we haven't had much success in 'curing' viruses. Other than a hit or miss vaccine, the only treatments for influenza are supportive, vice active. Not very encouraging, is it?



Actually there are several antiflu drugs available now.
As with any antiviral agent, early treatment is essential.

I would imagine that, as noted, the reason for doing this is to be able to create a vaccine. I'd say we better get working on it. We did a good job last year of stopping the flu outbreak which was shaping up to be pretty bad.

The rec this year is to vaccinate all kids between 6mos and 2 years of age, the elderly, and those with cardiopulmonary diseases.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:36:41 AM EST
Funny, this is only a day or so after they tell us we have to ration flu shots. And before that they all but said that if you don't get a flu shot you will DIE!!!!

Someone's driving up the price of something. Hmmmm, what could it be?
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:37:00 AM EST
I wrote that it would be the EQUIVALENT of 1/2 the US population at the time dying from the same disease. Do you have comprehension problems? I cannot make it any clerarer. You are completely mistaken in your understanding of that pandemic.

Doctors are fearful of a return of that virus strain. All of their information suggests that this 'bug' made the transition from avian to swine to human, with the attendent mutations along the way. In the SE Asia region right now, Thai officials are monitoring an avian strain that has made the transition to human. It may have started as swine flu. It always seeems to come from Asia.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:40:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:
Funny, this is only a day or so after they tell us we have to ration flu shots. And before that they all but said that if you don't get a flu shot you will DIE!!!!

Someone's driving up the price of something. Hmmmm, what could it be?



That is one way to look at it I suppose. Unfortunately, none of the current vaccines will protect you from the Avian Flu. I can also quite assure you that to have the Avian flu would be really bad.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:42:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
I wrote that it would be the EQUIVALENT of 1/2 the US population at the time dying from the same disease. Do you have comprehension problems? I cannot make it any clerarer. You are completely mistaken in your understanding of that pandemic.

Doctors are fearful of a return of that virus strain. All of their information suggests that this 'bug' made the transition from avian to swine to human, with the attendent mutations along the way. In the SE Asia region right now, Thai officials are monitoring an avian strain that has made the transition to human. It may have started as swine flu. It always seeems to come from Asia.



No you are being deceptive.

We live in the US, the WORLD death toll does not matter. Only the effects in the US matters. The US came off far and away the BEST of any urbanized country in that epidemic (Canada and Austrailia were even less afflicted but they were even more rural than we were back then, and raised fewer troops as a percentage of their population).

Without the military camps and the Refugee camps in Europe the virus could never have spread like it did.

The virus is a concern because it will kill people, but it is not going to have a rampage like it did in 1918 and while it might have a easier time hopping from country to country because of air travel it will have a harder time spreading once it gets off the plane.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:42:39 AM EST

Originally Posted By drjarhead:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:
Funny, this is only a day or so after they tell us we have to ration flu shots. And before that they all but said that if you don't get a flu shot you will DIE!!!!

Someone's driving up the price of something. Hmmmm, what could it be?



That is one way to look at it I suppose. Unfortunately, none of the current vaccines will protect you from the Avian Flu. I can also quite assure you that to have the Avian flu would be really bad.



If we could get people in third world countries to quit wiping their ass with their bare hand and then eating a monkey brain sandwich without washing we may not have to worry about it.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:43:14 AM EST

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
I wrote that it would be the EQUIVALENT of 1/2 the US population at the time dying from the same disease. Do you have comprehension problems? I cannot make it any clerarer. You are completely mistaken in your understanding of that pandemic.

Doctors are fearful of a return of that virus strain. All of their information suggests that this 'bug' made the transition from avian to swine to human, with the attendent mutations along the way. In the SE Asia region right now, Thai officials are monitoring an avian strain that has made the transition to human. It may have started as swine flu. It always seeems to come from Asia.



True. A family recently died from Avian Flu -- in Thailand I think.
They live with their animals in crowded conditions. Bad idea. When any zoonotic infection jumps to humans it is usually VERY bad.
In fact, I suspect that many of the biblical references to swine being unclean are in relation to such episodes.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:44:41 AM EST
Airborne Ebola anyone? That WOULD take out 90% of the word's population. I read The Hot Zone years ago with some considerable interest...at the time of the event, I was working for what was then Virginia Power, and had actually been in those buildings not too long before the sh** happened. Some very bad juju going on in those buildings...we could see the monkeys strapped into the little chairs, with God knows what being done to them. Very strange vibes from that place.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:45:14 AM EST

Originally Posted By drjarhead:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
And we haven't had much success in 'curing' viruses. Other than a hit or miss vaccine, the only treatments for influenza are supportive, vice active. Not very encouraging, is it?



Actually there are several antiflu drugs available now.
As with any antiviral agent, early treatment is essential.

I would imagine that, as noted, the reason for doing this is to be able to create a vaccine. I'd say we better get working on it. We did a good job last year of stopping the flu outbreak which was shaping up to be pretty bad.

The rec this year is to vaccinate all kids between 6mos and 2 years of age, the elderly, and those with cardiopulmonary diseases.



+1 on vaccinating the kids and elderly.

Has the AIDS research turned up anything that can be used against other viruses? I would imagine some of those drugs designed for a rapidly adapting virus would have uses elsewhere.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:46:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By drjarhead:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:
Funny, this is only a day or so after they tell us we have to ration flu shots. And before that they all but said that if you don't get a flu shot you will DIE!!!!

Someone's driving up the price of something. Hmmmm, what could it be?



That is one way to look at it I suppose. Unfortunately, none of the current vaccines will protect you from the Avian Flu. I can also quite assure you that to have the Avian flu would be really bad.



If we could get people in third world countries to quit wiping their ass with their bare hand and then eating a monkey brain sandwich without washing we may not have to worry about it.



Good luck.
I can't even get alot of americans to pay any attention to basic hygeine and sanitation. I tried to tell some imbecile with an IQ of maybe 75 not to shave his face with the same shaver he used on his dog. He kept getting impetigo on his face. He told me I didn't know what I was talking about.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:49:39 AM EST

Originally Posted By Fenian:
Airborne Ebola anyone? That WOULD take out 90% of the word's population. I read The Hot Zone years ago with some considerable interest...at the time of the event, I was working for what was then Virginia Power, and had actually been in those buildings not too long before the sh** happened. Some very bad juju going on in those buildings...we could see the monkeys strapped into the little chairs, with God knows what being done to them. Very strange vibes from that place.



Avian flu would be as close as you are likely to see.

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 7:50:58 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 7:52:40 AM EST by AZ_Hi_Desert]

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
I wrote that it would be the EQUIVALENT of 1/2 the US population at the time dying from the same disease. Do you have comprehension problems? I cannot make it any clerarer. You are completely mistaken in your understanding of that pandemic.

Doctors are fearful of a return of that virus strain. All of their information suggests that this 'bug' made the transition from avian to swine to human, with the attendent mutations along the way. In the SE Asia region right now, Thai officials are monitoring an avian strain that has made the transition to human. It may have started as swine flu. It always seeems to come from Asia.



No you are being deceptive.

We live in the US, the WORLD death toll does not matter. Only the effects in the US matters. The US came off far and away the BEST of any urbanized country in that epidemic (Canada and Austrailia were even less afflicted but they were even more rural than we were back then, and raised fewer troops as a percentage of their population).

Without the military camps and the Refugee camps in Europe the virus could never have spread like it did.

The virus is a concern because it will kill people, but it is not going to have a rampage like it did in 1918 and while it might have a easier time hopping from country to country because of air travel it will have a harder time spreading once it gets off the plane.



Sorry, but the US was still an agrarian nation during WW I. Fifty percent of all jobs were on farms. We were most assuredly NOT urbanized. We are now definitely urbanized.

BTW, what 'deception' was in my posts, pray tell? You were wrong, and calling me deceptive ain't gonna make you right.

ETA: Ebola isn't a very hardy virus. Not very likely it could make any large inroads over here, or anywhere for that matter. Outbreaks are always localized.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 8:07:45 AM EST
Same 1920's influenza research is being done here at UW. They are going to extract and revive the virus from grave corpses of the era known to have died from the virus. The flu virus that is estimated to have killed what, only 100M in the past 100 years. What's a 100M or so between scientist friends. Concerned? You betcha.

As far as the folks here saying that modern medicine owns old diseases, check out San Francisco's rising TB rate. How about SARS (its a flu variant). Avian Flu? Measles - oh yeah, up too. Lassa Fever, here's a old one new to North America (Pre-Owned Certified?).

I don't wear a tinfoil hat, the sky is not falling, but there is cause for extreme prudence where biologicals are reactivated, and I am not so sure these researchers are going to exercise the caution necessary to protect everyone else (like voluntary precautionary quarantine) especially when doing this research in a populated area.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 8:13:11 AM EST
Just wondering if the bombers would be flying if a third world country did this reasearch...

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 11:58:53 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 11:59:42 AM EST by The_Macallan]

Wash your hands regularly.
Don't touch your mouth, nose or eyes after touching public doorhandles, handrails etc.
Stay away from crowds.
Avoid sick people like the plague.
Take lots of vitamin C.
Avoid commercial flying if at all possible.

Stay away from big cities.

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 12:29:49 PM EST
If I am wrong here, drjarhead please step in & correct me. I was under the impression that all of the flu virii that we've had since 1918 was a mutant version of the original 1918 virus. That is why WHO shit the proverbial brick over SARS was that it could have been the next major new flu virius since the 1918 strain.

There are a couple of things working against us that they didn't have in 1918. Air travel will make the containment of the virus almost impossible. A large immunocompromised(HIV & HepC) population that would be highly susceptible to it. In some areas of the US, such as the projects in New Orleans, the HIV+ rate is the same as in the subSahara regions which is ~30%.

wganz

Link Posted: 10/7/2004 12:31:28 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 12:40:04 PM EST by paenutz]

Originally Posted By KBaker:
Given modern health care, I doubt the 1918 strain would have the same lethality today that it did then.



Dont you listen? Kerry sais you dont HAVE Health care anymore....
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 12:39:37 PM EST

Originally Posted By wganz:
If I am wrong here, drjarhead please step in & correct me. I was under the impression that all of the flu virii that we've had since 1918 was a mutant version of the original 1918 virus.



That is incorrect.


That is why WHO shit the proverbial brick over SARS was that it could have been the next major new flu virius since the 1918 strain.


This was a concern very early on. It is actually a Coronavirus, one of the causes of the common cold.


There are a couple of things working against us that they didn't have in 1918. Air travel will make the containment of the virus almost impossible. A large immunocompromised(HIV & HepC) population that would be highly susceptible to it. In some areas of the US, such as the projects in New Orleans, the HIV+ rate is the same as in the subSahara regions which is ~30%.

wganz




Air travel would hasten it's spread by a fair bit. Incubation period is 6-24hours, and I suspect that the variation is due to differences in infectious dose.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 12:39:50 PM EST

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.



That is a severe exaggeration.

1918 was the last BAD international disease outbreak. But it was scarecely the Black Death, especially in the US. In war ravaged Europe, and ESPECALLY in Russia it was much worse.

Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Didn't it kill 20,000,000 people? I'd consider it serious.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 12:56:58 PM EST

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By AZ_Hi_Desert:
Captain Tripps, anyone? Thats the first thing that popped into my head when I read that yesterday. The 1918 outbreak killed people so quickly that many never even had time to see a doctor. Why in the hell would they recreate such a beast? It was an anomoly, and likely wouldn't be repeated. A different strain, but not likely the same virus.



That is a severe exaggeration.

1918 was the last BAD international disease outbreak. But it was scarecely the Black Death, especially in the US. In war ravaged Europe, and ESPECALLY in Russia it was much worse.

Only a little over 2 percent of the people who caught it died. It was 100 times more fatal than a NORMAL flu year, but it was not going to depopulate the world.

And it probably HAS been back, but we would not of been able to tell till the last decade or so, and it simply is not going to spread with out the large military and displaced persons camps to incubate it, or the close conditions found in early 20th century cities.



Didn't it kill 20,000,000 people? I'd consider it serious.



Probably closer to 40 Million Globally

Less than three quarters of a million Americans died, the majority being GIs living in shitty conditions in Camps both here and in France.

Thus most of the deaths were preventable even with the technology of the time. You cant even say they didn't know better, but the wartime economy led to cuts and the bending of rules about sanitation.

Once the death toll became high enough for everyone in the US to realize there was a problem, the epidemic came to very SUDDEN end as extreme measures to ensure clenliness and quarenteen suspected cases were brought to bear.

To bring the same kind of situation that the Spanish Flu caused in 1918 would requrie a enitrely new bug, a return of the SAME virus that came in 1918/1919 would not be very damaging HERE.

But it could still kill a few MILLIONS in places like Africa and India and Latin America.

I, however, do not LIVE in Africa or India or Latin America.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 1:04:28 PM EST
For the most part, the participants of this Forum tend to be well-read and certainly more historically attentive than the educated sector of the American population. We have an interest in weaponry, warfare, and social change as it relates to the rise and fall of nations and governments. War is politics taken to the extreme. We gunnut/historians are well-aware of the deadly nature of the weapons we possess and study. If they weren't so deadly, they wouldn't be so interesting.

However, warfare (minus its frequent companion genocide) has long taken a back seat to the greatest destroyer -- pestilence.

There have been news reports of late regarding strains of avian flu and the possible transmission from birds to humans and human to human. At the time, I didn't see the news worthiness of six persons dying in Vietnam of some flu. I see things differently now.

In the midst of WWI, influenza ravaged the world. It appears that no place on earth was safe.

In a single month 12,162 persons died in Philadelphia alone. About that same number died in Kansas during the pandemic. More than 33,000 died in New York City alone. "In the closing week of October 1918, 2,700 American soldiers died on the battlefields of Europe. That week, 21,000 Americans died at home of the Spanish influenza." (1)

Worldwide, the estimated deathtoll was somewhere between 21 and 40 million. In the United States, approximately 675,000 Americans died during a 10 month period, outnumbering all of America's war dead for the entirety of the 20th century.

By conservative estimate, 450,000 Russians, 375,000 Italians, 228,000 Britons, and 225,000 Germans died of this particular flu.

Unlike other influenzas, this particular strain killed mostly the young and the healthy. Soldiers and sailors paid a particularly high price in crowded ships and encampments. The death rate in some military hospitals well exceeded 60% of those who were admitted with symptoms. Statistically, the front was safer than a hospital.

Not until 1996 were dead remnants of the virus isolated and identified. One source was lung tissue from a young Army private who died in the US. Another was from the frozen remains of an Inuit woman who died the same year.

The Spanish Flu really had nothing to do with Spain. It appears to have started in Kansas with a bird virus, likely from a migrating duck, which somehow evolved with a swine virus and made the leap to some unsuspecting residents of the Sunflower State.

As quickly as it came, the flu mysteriously departed. While serious outbreaks continued into 1920, the worst of the flu was in the winter of 1918-19. It ran its course unabated by all the efforts that "modern medicine" offered at the time. Many who survived the disease never fully recovered. Often survivors suffered from profound personality changes. President Wilson arrived in Europe to be welcomed as mankind's savior from the ravages of war. He wanted a humane peace. While on his mission, he was stricken with the flu. When he regained his strength, the Wilson who had sailed to the Old World with humanity in his heart agreed to a brutal peace that sowed the seeds of WWII and its eventual harvest of 50 million lives.

The deadliest flu's all seem to have some sort of avian origination in Asia. Researchers tell us that when people die from an avian-sourced flu, the scientists get worried. Very few Americans know anything about the 1918 Influenza; epidemiologists know all about it and they dread its resurection.

(1) "Influenza 1918; The Worst Epidemic in American History" by Lynette Iezzoni. Foreword by David McCullough.TV Books, LLC, 1999. ISBN1-57500-108-X.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 1:23:28 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 1:26:55 PM EST by ArmdLbrl]
It killed the young and supposedly healthy because they were living and working in sqalid conditions brought on by the war, they were spending too many hours crammed too close togeather in military camps and troop ships or in war factories, overcrowded mass transit and overcrowded apartments.

Most of these young people were living on farms or in small towns that serviced farm communities untill the war and then then either were called into the Army or flocked to the city to get high paying (for the time) defense jobs. There was not adaquate housing or transportation for them all in the cities, and in the Military camps the Armies over recruited and crammed people into ill prepared camps where men were crammed togeather and generallly overexposed to the elements for months at a time.

Without those conditions the flu of 1918 could NOT have spread to so many people, or the people infected exposed to such a high dose of the virus in a short time, with a resulting increase in severe and fatal cases.

Epidimiologists worry about it because they are doctors and beleve that if even one person dies from a virus its a disaster, instead of looking at it in historical context which would tell them how and why it was not WORSE than it was.

That is assuming that a flu like this is REALLY the epidimiologists worse fear as the above author implies, and they are not really far more worried about something far more virulent like a return of the airborne pnumonic plague of the 1340's that spread as rapidly as the flu (without the aid of steamships, trains, and aircraft) but killed half the people infected with it instead of just a couple percent of those infected.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 1:24:49 PM EST

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:


To bring the same kind of situation that the Spanish Flu caused in 1918 would requrie a enitrely new bug, a return of the SAME virus that came in 1918/1919 would not be very damaging HERE.




That remains to be seen as it is likely an incorrect assumption. How many in the US do you suppose ahave any immunity to that strain of the flu?

It will matter little in the long run, of course. From time to time a strain will arise that will be extremely deadly. Fortunately, modern medicine will substantailly reduce the number of deaths vs what might have occurred.
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 1:25:02 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/7/2004 1:33:04 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/7/2004 1:33:56 PM EST by ArmdLbrl]

Originally Posted By drjarhead:

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:


To bring the same kind of situation that the Spanish Flu caused in 1918 would requrie a enitrely new bug, a return of the SAME virus that came in 1918/1919 would not be very damaging HERE.




That remains to be seen as it is likely an incorrect assumption. How many in the US do you suppose ahave any immunity to that strain of the flu?

It will matter little in the long run, of course. From time to time a strain will arise that will be extremely deadly. Fortunately, modern medicine will substantailly reduce the number of deaths vs what might have occurred.



The same number that were immune to it in 1918.

Immunity is not the issue, life support for those severely infected AND the lack of systems to permit spred in such a wildfire fashon are what would make a return of the same bug today not a major deal.

You need a bug today that is not only easily spread by person to person contact but also is both asymptomatic AND still contagious in the host for a few days at least. People showing signs of disease would very quickly be detected and stopped, but asymptomatic hosts could infect many before anyone knew there was a problem.
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