Posted: 8/13/2005 1:51:38 PM EDT
Report warns of a million addictsCRAIG BROWN Sat 13 Aug 2005 news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=1773592005BRITAIN is in danger of becoming overwhelmed by a drug culture that would see a society where drug dealers hold political influence, the streets are teeming with "the walking dead", and "gated communities" are created to protect their residents.
This is the vision in a new government report compiled by a team of academics headed by Professor Neil MacKeganey, the director of the influential Centre of Drug Misuse Research at Glasgow University.
Compiled for the Department of Trade and Industry's Foresight, a body set up to look at possible future developments, Sociology and Substance Use paints a bleak picture for the UK in the next 20 years if the current scale of drug misuse continues unabated.
Presenting several scenarios based on existing trends, the report predicts the potential for a million addicts, compared with the current estimated level of 350,000 registered heroin users.
The number of drug addicts would be so massive that it would see the economy and social order inextricably tied to class A narcotics.
Prof MacKeganey said: "For many people some of those scenarios are very challenging because they ask the question 'how much drug use can society accommodate?' and the conclusion we arrived at is that it can't actually contain very much without having a serious impact way beyond what we're seeing at the moment.
"Largely [this is] because we're seeing 1 per cent of the population addicted to illegal drugs, and that costs the government something in the region of £12.5 billion, because the impact of that small number is way beyond their small numbers. And if this group were to increase even beyond a small extent, expenditure could rise to something in the order of £35 billion," he said.
"Over the past 20 years, it's had a quite remarkable upward spiral over the number of users. And if that was to continue, then I think we would be into a pretty challenging scenario."
Prof MacKeganey spoke of the creation of drug dealers who held sway over local communities, similar to war lords in Afghanistan.
He explained: "There will be drug dealers in Scotland now who have enormous influence in their communities; people who others rely on for employment and income. If the number of drug addicts were to steadily increase in the way it has over the last 20 years, then that influence would extend into those local communities, to the point where in parts, they would become hugely influential figures."
The figure of a million users was arrived at through the study of areas where drug use is expanding beyond those with the most common profile of heroin users - males in their twenties. It predicts a rise in drug use among young people, aged 12 to 15, women and people in rural communities.
The professor said that this potential future already existed in Vancouver, Canada, where in certain areas of the city addicts who resembled "zombies" wandered the streets - a sight he warned could become common in Scotland.
Prof MacKeganey said that the report had been looked upon by the DTI as extremely controversial, but he defended the report's findings, saying they were "well within the realms of possibility".
But Alistair Ramsay, the chief executive of Scotland Against Drugs, said the academic was being overly pessimistic: "He certainly has his own interpretations of his data and they can be controversial, but they are not mine. We carried out the Scottish Adolescent Lifestyle Substance Abuse Survey among 13- to 15-year-olds over the periods 1998, 2000 and 2002, and we recorded a 2 per cent drop in use. The message is getting through to young people, and they no longer see drugs as an attractive option."
The DTI was also keen to stress that the report was "a worst-case scenario".
A spokeswoman said: "The leading figures in their respective fields and they were asked to look to the future and potential scenarios. We stress that these will not form the basis for any policy, but will form part of the substance of discussions when it comes to considerations and discussions for future policies."
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