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Posted: 10/27/2004 3:41:28 AM EST
Link

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began.

Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.

<snip>

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.

At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not


comment : looks good for Bush
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 3:42:02 AM EST


45 states.
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:00:02 AM EST




CMOS
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:03:40 AM EST

This is great news, but I still can't imagine how someone could have possibly been 'undecided' in this election... Such a clear case of good vs. bad, I just don't get it...



Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:07:27 AM EST
i hope for 45 states
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:09:18 AM EST
they shoe the overall 47.8 to 47.8 right now. But the good news is it looks like ohio may go bush. Bad news is, bush is losing numbers in FL. the way I see it if he can take FL and OH, the race is over.
Despite the numbers in FL, I still think he'll take that state. plus WI is starting to lean bush.

IF he loses Fl, can he still do it? if he gets OH and WI thats 37 votes, plus NV makes 42. wheres the other 6 coming from?
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:13:02 AM EST
nevermind, 10/24 numbers show Iowa at 48% bush, 46% kerry. that would make 49.

if thats the way it goes, bush will win with 1 vote to spare!

So, he can lose EITHER Fl, OR Oh. But NOT BOTH.
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:16:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By davidp14:
they shoe the overall 47.8 to 47.8 right now. But the good news is it looks like ohio may go bush. Bad news is, bush is losing numbers in FL. the way I see it if he can take FL and OH, the race is over.
Despite the numbers in FL, I still think he'll take that state. plus WI is starting to lean bush.

IF he loses Fl, can he still do it? if he gets OH and WI thats 37 votes, plus NV makes 42. wheres the other 6 coming from?



The Rasmussen 3 day tracking Poll had a corrupt sample on Saturday which put Kerry up by 2 on Monday (first time in months). Yesterday the Ras poll had Bush and Kerry even because the rogue sample is being weighted by the normal data of Sun and Mon. Expect Bush by +2 today as the rogue Sat sample rolls off.


Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:24:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By renotse:
The Rasmussen 3 day tracking Poll had a corrupt sample on Saturday which put Kerry up by 2 on Monday (first time in months). Yesterday the Ras poll had Bush and Kerry even because the rogue sample is being weighted by the normal data of Sun and Mon. Expect Bush by +2 today as the rogue Sat sample rolls off.



Well thats comforting.
What about the Fl numbers? I would think with all those retired New yorkers down there, they'd be motivated by Koch's stumping down there.
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:25:47 AM EST
Please, please, please, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE Dear Lord!
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:35:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By DarkStar:
This is great news, but I still can't imagine how someone could have possibly been 'undecided' in this election... Such a clear case of good vs. bad, I just don't get it...






The late deciders are smart people on average who like for things to play out before making a commitment. They, on average, will be more informed.
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:39:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By davidp14:

Well thats comforting.
What about the Fl numbers? I would think with all those retired New yorkers down there, they'd be motivated by Koch's stumping down there.



I heard Ed Koch on Hannity yesterday. Ed said that many of the Florida Jewish community (Rep and Dem) are leaning Bush. He cited Bush's record on Israel. Ed was committed to making a difference in Florida and was Stumping through Friday. When you have a heavy weight Democrat like Ed Koch stumping for a Republican incumbent President there is plenty to be upbeat about!

Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:40:12 AM EST

Originally Posted By DarkStar:
This is great news, but I still can't imagine how someone could have possibly been 'undecided' in this election... Such a clear case of good vs. bad, I just don't get it...



I'm sure that this is exactly what they are saying too
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:42:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By kindstranger:

The late deciders are smart people on average who like for things to play out before making a commitment. They, on average, will be more informed.



They, on average, will be more informed?? Or maybe just less Principled
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 4:53:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/27/2004 4:53:57 AM EST by renotse]
Bush Leads Kerry in Hawaii

RCP link

Please note from the link that Kerry recently led there by as much as 10% on RCP.

This truly illustrates an errosion of Kerry strongholds
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 5:47:14 AM EST
Needs a... BUMP.
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