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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:58:49 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/27/2004 6:59:09 AM EST by renotse]
Rasmussen Reports

Six days to go and President Bush has regained a slim lead in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.0%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Bush 49.5% Kerry 48.1. Other Candidates attract 0.5% and 1.9% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote). More...

Link Posted: 10/27/2004 7:02:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By renotse:
Rasmussen Reports

Six days to go and President Bush has regained a slim lead in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.0%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

When leaners are included, it's Bush 49.5% Kerry 48.1. Other Candidates attract 0.5% and 1.9% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote). More...




not 1 minute ago, FNC said Rasmussen had it at sKerry 49, W 47
Link Posted: 10/27/2004 7:07:01 AM EST

Originally Posted By thecleaner:

not 1 minute ago, FNC said Rasmussen had it at sKerry 49, W 47



FNC got it wrong.

here's why

previous thread


Originally Posted By renotse:

Well, it was reported yesterday that on Saturday Rassmussen had included the question, "Do you support a return to the draft," in their poll, which turns their poll into a push poll. It skewed the raw data to Kerry. see below....By Monday the data had already moved back strongly to Bush. Look for that trend to continue and move Bush from the current 48-48 tie (3-day tracking poll) to at least +2 today. Rasmussen posts updates at noon Eastern so you can see if my prediction is on track.


Saturday raw data
Bush 43.7
Kerry 48.1

Sun
Bush 48.3
Kerry 47.8

Mond
Bush 51.4
Kerry 47.5


A quick average of the Bush data (43.7+48.3+51.4) / 3 = 47.8
and Kerry data (48.1+47.8+47.5) = 47.8

shows the basis for Tuesdays 48 - 48 tie

if you roll off Saturday raw data and use a conservative number like Sun B48.3 K47.8 Today's 3 day tracking number can be predicted like this:

Bush (48.3+51.4+48.3) / 3 = 49.3
Kerry (47.8+47.5+47.8) / 3 = 47.7

But I expect a better number today for Bush. That is why I predict as I do. Cross your fingers!

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