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9/22/2017 12:11:25 AM
Posted: 9/10/2010 7:40:55 AM EDT
What the hell is the deal with Rasmussen? Yesterday Zero is at a 58% total disapproval and today he goes back to 56%. Do they just call up all the Zero dick suckers when his numbers start looking bad or are people really just that fickle? How can anyone change their mind so much about this President? He consistently spouts the same bullshit and nothing he's done has had a desirable effect on anything. So what's the deal here, what am I missing?
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 7:43:00 AM EDT
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:
What the hell is the deal with Rasmussen? Yesterday Zero is at a 58% total disapproval and today he goes back to 56%. Do they just call up all the Zero dick suckers when his numbers start looking bad or are people really just that fickle? How can anyone change their mind so much about this President? He consistently spouts the same bullshit and nothing he's done has had a desirable effect on anything. So what's the deal here, what am I missing?

People are just that fickle.

Also, they don't sample the exact same people every time. That's why they mention there's a small variance from what it may actually be. I wouldn't really question Rasmussen's methods, though, he does a shitload better job than any of his competition thus far.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 7:45:12 AM EDT
A statistics course would go a long way in explaining this. There are all sort of (reasonable) approximations that are part of polling, which is why they have confidence intervals and sampling error. A difference of 2% is often negligible.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 7:45:18 AM EDT
"Margin of error."

Link Posted: 9/10/2010 7:46:17 AM EDT
Margin of Error is +/- 3%
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 9:07:09 AM EDT
I have no problem with this- Rasmussen (and in my area Quinnipiac) polls I believe are one of the few unbiased polling firms. They let the data fall where it may and they dont give one hoot who is pissed off at the data.

As stated above the +/- margin of error can easily explain this. Now if the poll went from 58% dissaprove to say 48% disapprove in 1 week then my eyebrows would go up.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 10:51:38 AM EDT
Originally Posted By orangelo:
Margin of Error is +/- 3%


OP, did you not see this part or do you not understand what it means?

Statistical analysis with a decent sample can be pretty accurate. Rasmussen does a better job than anyone else, IMO.

Link Posted: 9/10/2010 12:18:57 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Frost7:
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:
What the hell is the deal with Rasmussen? Yesterday Zero is at a 58% total disapproval and today he goes back to 56%. Do they just call up all the Zero dick suckers when his numbers start looking bad or are people really just that fickle? How can anyone change their mind so much about this President? He consistently spouts the same bullshit and nothing he's done has had a desirable effect on anything. So what's the deal here, what am I missing?

People are just that fickle.

Also, they don't sample the exact same people every time. That's why they mention there's a small variance from what it may actually be. I wouldn't really question Rasmussen's methods, though, he does a shitload better job than any of his competition thus far.

I was afraid someone would say that. Figures it would be the first post.

I keep thinking the jumps in the Rasmussen index are just normal variance and then I see something like the 6 point jump yesterday or the 5 point jump on the 3rd. I keep trying to tell myself the general public really isn't that stupid. I'm generally an optimist but this administration is really turning me into a cynic.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 12:32:27 PM EDT
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:

Originally Posted By Frost7:
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:
What the hell is the deal with Rasmussen? Yesterday Zero is at a 58% total disapproval and today he goes back to 56%. Do they just call up all the Zero dick suckers when his numbers start looking bad or are people really just that fickle? How can anyone change their mind so much about this President? He consistently spouts the same bullshit and nothing he's done has had a desirable effect on anything. So what's the deal here, what am I missing?

People are just that fickle.

Also, they don't sample the exact same people every time. That's why they mention there's a small variance from what it may actually be. I wouldn't really question Rasmussen's methods, though, he does a shitload better job than any of his competition thus far.

I was afraid someone would say that. Figures it would be the first post.

I keep thinking the jumps in the Rasmussen index are just normal variance and then I see something like the 6 point jump yesterday or the 5 point jump on the 3rd. I keep trying to tell myself the general public really isn't that stupid. I'm generally an optimist but this administration is really turning me into a cynic.


You get that +/- 3% = a possible 6 point variance, right?

Link Posted: 9/10/2010 12:36:56 PM EDT
Confidence intervals, how do they work?
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 3:30:08 PM EDT

Originally Posted By THR-Thumper:
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:

Originally Posted By Frost7:
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:
What the hell is the deal with Rasmussen? Yesterday Zero is at a 58% total disapproval and today he goes back to 56%. Do they just call up all the Zero dick suckers when his numbers start looking bad or are people really just that fickle? How can anyone change their mind so much about this President? He consistently spouts the same bullshit and nothing he's done has had a desirable effect on anything. So what's the deal here, what am I missing?

People are just that fickle.

Also, they don't sample the exact same people every time. That's why they mention there's a small variance from what it may actually be. I wouldn't really question Rasmussen's methods, though, he does a shitload better job than any of his competition thus far.

I was afraid someone would say that. Figures it would be the first post.

I keep thinking the jumps in the Rasmussen index are just normal variance and then I see something like the 6 point jump yesterday or the 5 point jump on the 3rd. I keep trying to tell myself the general public really isn't that stupid. I'm generally an optimist but this administration is really turning me into a cynic.


You get that +/- 3% = a possible 6 point variance, right?


Yeah, I have no problem with that. Its the frequency of the large swings that scares me. It says a tremendous amount about the thought process or lack of one that people use when they think about this president. There are people that actually believe the bullshit that comes out of his mouth and think he's doing a great job. It makes me think we're not just on the slippery slope but tobogganing down in afterburner.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 3:41:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/10/2010 3:44:35 PM EDT by Frost7]
Originally Posted By XD_Fan:
Yeah, I have no problem with that. Its the frequency of the large swings that scares me. It says a tremendous amount about the thought process or lack of one that people use when they think about this president. There are people that actually believe the bullshit that comes out of his mouth and think he's doing a great job. It makes me think we're not just on the slippery slope but tobogganing down in afterburner.

It makes more sense when you consider it something like this:

If they get a near-perfect cross-section of modern America, ~40% of that 100% pie are conservatives who are like, "Fuck Obama" every time without fail.

~20% are liberals who will never admit Obama is wrong even if he were to set up concentration camps.

The remaining ~40% are fickle independents who can't decide if socialism is good or not and can be swayed by corny speeches and campaign ads. About 10% of them decided Obama sucks dick within the first year. 10-15% lean liberal and it's gonna take disasters they can actually feel or being taken off their MSM pablem to sway them. The remaining 15-20% just can't decide and that's where almost all of the constant fluctuation takes place. Some days they don't mind Obama, some days they think he's not so hot.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 3:45:34 PM EDT
If the swing is within the margin of error it's not large.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 3:47:03 PM EDT
Originally Posted By fatalerror113:
Confidence intervals, how do they work?


Pretty sure they use special magnets. But not all the time. It's cool when they do though.


That's how you get a confidence interval.
Link Posted: 9/10/2010 3:51:54 PM EDT
Trends are what's important. Not individual days.

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