Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
12/6/2019 7:27:02 PM
Posted: 1/20/2008 4:40:09 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/20/2008 4:41:12 PM EST by greenranger]
1) What happens when/if a bear market meets a solvency and banking crisis at the same point in time?

2) When else in history has it happened?

3) what were the results?


Thanks for helping me.

GR

Link Posted: 1/21/2008 7:11:39 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/21/2008 7:11:54 AM EST by ar-jedi]

Originally Posted By greenranger:
1) What happens when/if a bear market meets a solvency and banking crisis at the same point in time?


people go on with their lives.


Originally Posted By greenranger:
2) When else in history has it happened?


less than 10 years ago.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_East_Asian_financial_crisis
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTCM
and on a much bigger scale in the mid 1970's, culminating with Business Week's landmark cover story "The Death of Equities" in August 1979. every economist and talking head on TV was talking about how bad things were and how much worse it was going to get.


Originally Posted By greenranger:
3) what were the results?


temporary disruption of global markets due to asymmetric currency and stock positions. long term, these were seen as necessary corrections to extraordinary conditions. to wit, since the doldrums of the prolonged 1973-1974 bear market, the DJIA has risen about 1500%. (click)


Originally Posted By greenranger:
Thanks for helping me.


knowing your stand on things economic, i hope this is not a troll thread.

there are hundreds of reasons that our economic world could have ended by now. killer plagues, two world wars, at least four other wars, a missile crisis, a dead president, hyperinflation, stagflation, two buildings in the world's financial capital toppled by terrorists, and finally, sold out britney spears concerts. through all that, the global financial system is still mostly functional. perfect? no. unpleasant at times? yes. too exciting occasionally? yes. but if there is a vacuum, it will be filled. if there is a cancer, it will be cut off. if there is harmony, there will be an upsetting event. there is a lot of emotion driven financial decision making, and this leads to excess in good times (remember the go-go 1990's) and decimation in bad times (2001, 2008, etc). it's a cyclic environment, and don't try to fool yourself that you can somehow either foresee the next step or fight the rotation. many people try to do both and lose.

ar-jedi
Link Posted: 1/21/2008 8:46:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By ar-jedi:

Originally Posted By greenranger:
1) What happens when/if a bear market meets a solvency and banking crisis at the same point in time?


people go on with their lives.


Originally Posted By greenranger:
2) When else in history has it happened?


less than 10 years ago.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_East_Asian_financial_crisis
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTCM
and on a much bigger scale in the mid 1970's, culminating with Business Week's landmark cover story "The Death of Equities" in August 1979. every economist and talking head on TV was talking about how bad things were and how much worse it was going to get.


Originally Posted By greenranger:
3) what were the results?


temporary disruption of global markets due to asymmetric currency and stock positions. long term, these were seen as necessary corrections to extraordinary conditions. to wit, since the doldrums of the prolonged 1973-1974 bear market, the DJIA has risen about 1500%. (click)


Originally Posted By greenranger:
Thanks for helping me.


knowing your stand on things economic, i hope this is not a troll thread.

there are hundreds of reasons that our economic world could have ended by now. killer plagues, two world wars, at least four other wars, a missile crisis, a dead president, hyperinflation, stagflation, two buildings in the world's financial capital toppled by terrorists, and finally, sold out britney spears concerts. through all that, the global financial system is still mostly functional. perfect? no. unpleasant at times? yes. too exciting occasionally? yes. but if there is a vacuum, it will be filled. if there is a cancer, it will be cut off. if there is harmony, there will be an upsetting event. there is a lot of emotion driven financial decision making, and this leads to excess in good times (remember the go-go 1990's) and decimation in bad times (2001, 2008, etc). it's a cyclic environment, and don't try to fool yourself that you can somehow either foresee the next step or fight the rotation. many people try to do both and lose.

ar-jedi



Did we have $350 trillion of derivatives back then, did we have everything leveraged to kingdom come?
Link Posted: 1/21/2008 5:10:53 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/21/2008 5:11:20 PM EST by ar-jedi]

Originally Posted By CVO:
Did we have $350 trillion of derivatives back then?


(1) where does that number come from?

(2) you do know that futures contracts (like on wheat and oil and pork bellies) are technically "derivatives" and are included in such all-encompassing calculations?

(3) it's ok to not quote the entirety of someone's prior post, since folks already read it.

ar-jedi
Top Top