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Posted: 11/6/2002 10:25:05 AM EDT
[#1]
Election year. I wouldn't count on it.
A few things need to happen for the Republicans to maintain or extend their current leads in 2004. The economy needs to improve significantly. If the economy remains stagnant or declines again, the Dems will have a strong drum to beat and it will be telling. The conflict with Iraq needs to go well. If it doesn't go well, it'll reflect badly on GWB and the Republicans...say bye, bye. The war on terrorism needs to go well, preferably with OSama's head on a pike or rotting in prison somewhere and Al Queda dismantled decisively. This is UNLIKELY. The war on terrorism is forever, so if we take additional serious hits or make no discernable progress, it'll be hard (politically) to explain with all the money being put into it. On the negative side, increased terrorist attacks in CONUS will actually help the AWB to sunset as people will WANT smallarms to protect themselves and their families, especially if we start to suffer suicide bombers or other small scale, palestinian type attacks. I hope it doesn't happen. If things go well under the republicans, and more conservative judges are appointed, we could find the AWB declared unconstitutional since the 2nd specifically protects military style arms. But that's a long shot in my opinion. This is not a slam dunk, even with the republicans in control. Remember, the republicans were in control in the middle nineties and were unable or unwilling to turn back the AWB. We need to be more active than ever to get our politicians voting pro-2nd amendment and pro-BOR or we will be defeated in our complacency. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 10:35:30 AM EDT
[#2]
What reason would the Republicans have to pass a new bill? How would that benefit them? They owe nothing to the soccer mom vote, they did this electoral victory in spite of a large gender gap.
It would be nice if they repealed it in advance, but its not required. And the Republicans did try, three times, to repeal the AW ban in the 90's, but they never had a veto proof majority in the Senate. The last two years Dashell would have never let such a bill out of comittee to come to a vote. Without a presidential veto to worry about a one vote majority in both houses is sufficient. Its not even required for all the RINOs to vote for repeal since there are always 2-3 Democrats who are pro gun and willing to vote for it. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 12:38:18 PM EDT
[#3]
I think it will be renewed if only because the Republicans don't want to give the media something they can wring their hands over.
I remember watching the nightly news when it was reported that mandatory records of every box of ammo sold, was being lifted. Ted Koppel (Howdy Doody) was substituting for the regular anchor and when he finished reading the story, he dropped his head and started slowly shaking it back and forth. When he looked back up, he had a look of infinite sadness. I almost dove through the screen, in an effort to strangle the son of a bitch.[pissed] |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 12:49:33 PM EDT
[#4]
Not all the media are going to wring their hands about it.
The media are no longer a monolith, nor does the media have the kind of power they did ten years ago. People KNOW the media are not unbiased now. And then there is the internet. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 1:45:19 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted: I remember watching the nightly news when it was reported that mandatory records of every box of ammo sold, was being lifted. Ted Koppel (Howdy Doody) was substituting for the regular anchor and when he finished reading the story, he dropped his head and started slowly shaking it back and forth. When he looked back up, he had a look of infinite sadness. I almost dove through the screen, in an effort to strangle the son of a bitch.[pissed] was that when the firearms owners protection act passed? back in 86 or was it a local thing? |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 1:52:34 PM EDT
[#6]
There will not be a new AWB, instead asscroft and company willl pass Patriot II to protect the people of the US from terrorists.....write it down and remember that I told ya. It only gets worse.
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Posted: 11/6/2002 1:58:02 PM EDT
[#7]
There are many other threads addressing this.
The AWB [b]will[/b] sunset, because [b]it passed with a ten year timer[/b] built in. Get this into your head people: the AWB will sunset. To renew it requires a new bill to go through a completely republican government--committees, both houses, and the president. There is no way that the republicans will support such a bill. Last time it passed by only one vote, despite the fact that the democrats controlled the whole government. You people are nuts if you think the AWB will be replaced in 2004. Read the other threads, I'm sick of writing about this. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:05:42 PM EDT
[#8]
Yes, lets talk about something else.
Like getting rid of the cap on new Machine Gun sales and the import ban on assault rifles. That is a real possibility now-who would have thought that a week ago? |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:12:00 PM EDT
[#9]
Quoted: There are many other threads addressing this. The AWB [b]will[/b] sunset, because [b]it passed with a ten year timer[/b] built in. Get this into your head people: the AWB will sunset. To renew it requires a new bill to go through a completely republican government--committees, both houses, and the president. There is no way that the republicans will support such a bill. Last time it passed by only one vote, despite the fact that the democrats controlled the whole government. You people are nuts if you think the AWB will be replaced in 2004. Read the other threads, I'm sick of writing about this. I completely agree with you. The democrats took a major hit when the next election after the ban came around and i'm sure the republicans don't want to repeat their mistake. Even the first time it didn't pass by much and that was with a democratic controlled congress and whitehouse. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:12:11 PM EDT
[#10]
when was the last time you saw congress actually get rid of a law? It will sunset but make no mistake there will be a new one.
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:15:11 PM EDT
[#11]
Quoted: when was the last time you saw congress actually get rid of a law? It will sunset but make no mistake there will be a new one. Ever hear of the 18th Amendment? You know, its just possible that Gun Control might be just as much a passing fad as Alcohol Control was in the first half of the 20th. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:21:33 PM EDT
[#12]
It is defintely going to sunset, but I don't doubt a new AWB will pass at some point. BUT I see no way that will possibly happen while the entire government is controlled by Republicans or the Democrat majority is very small. So the question is how long before a new AWB?
I forsee at least a year or two of assault weapon goodness. Even if the Democrats take the government back in '04, they're going to be weary of the gun issue. They have no doubt it cost them after the 94 ban, and they're will be afraid of the issue. They already are. I think the Congress will continue to flip flop back in forth between who has control in the next couple elections, but the Majority will be by the slightest of margins. It will be extremely difficult to get another AWB through due to this. The first just barely passed to start with... This vote was the key though, there is now nearly no doubt the law will sunset and nothing will be chasing right along behind it immediately. As a result the chances of repassing another ban before too long afterwards are going downhill as well. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:41:17 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted: Quoted: There are many other threads addressing this. The AWB [b]will[/b] sunset, because [b]it passed with a ten year timer[/b] built in. Get this into your head people: the AWB will sunset. To renew it requires a new bill to go through a completely republican government--committees, both houses, and the president. There is no way that the republicans will support such a bill. Last time it passed by only one vote, despite the fact that the democrats controlled the whole government. You people are nuts if you think the AWB will be replaced in 2004. Read the other threads, I'm sick of writing about this. I completely agree with you. The democrats took a major hit when the next election after the ban came around and i'm sure the republicans don't want to repeat their mistake. Even the first time it didn't pass by much and that was with a democratic controlled congress and whitehouse. The Democrats taking a big hit in 96 had nothing to do with the AW Ban. Rarely does the party in power do well in the off-presidential elections. In fact yesterdays election was a freak occurance for the Republicans given their history. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:51:14 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted: It will sunset but make no mistake there will be a new one. And how is it going to pass, [b]The_Beer_Slayer[/b]? Last time it passed by only one vote when the whole government was controlled by democrats. AR-15Fan has it right: There is not much to worry about for a renewal in 2004. The problem is, that it will likely come up in the future if the democrats ever get control again. One more optimistic thing: For both this election and the one in 2002, more republican incuments were up for reelection in the senate than democrats. [b]In 2004, the democrats have more seats at stake in the senate than the republicans do.[/b] Republicans should hopefully control the senate until 2006 at least, unless something awful happens. Edit: [b]Atencio[/b], 96 was a presidential election. If I remember correctly, many democrats blamed their poor performance at least partially on their support for the AWB. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:51:28 PM EDT
[#15]
Quoted: Yes, lets talk about something else. Like getting rid of the cap on new Machine Gun sales and the import ban on assault rifles. That is a real possibility now-who would have thought that a week ago? not possible |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:52:40 PM EDT
[#16]
No Atencio
The Democrats lost the Congress in 94'- TWO MONTHS after the AW measure passed. Even they admit that their position cost them. And they admit that it was a factor in Al Gores loss as well. |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:53:46 PM EDT
[#17]
i think the 94 awb is gone
the repubs wouldn't risk their slim advantage by pissing off the "gun lobby" |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:56:34 PM EDT
[#18]
[b][red][size=6]
WRITE YOUR SENATORS!!!!! WRITE YOUR CONGRESSMAN!!!!! WRITE BUSH!!!!! WRITE CHENEY!!!!! WRITE ASHCROFT!!!!! HELL, WRITE YOUR GOVERNOR!!!!! REPEAL THE UNCONSTITUTIONAL AWB NOW!!!!! [/size=6][/red][/b] Scott |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:56:38 PM EDT
[#19]
Quoted: Quoted: Yes, lets talk about something else. Like getting rid of the cap on new Machine Gun sales and the import ban on assault rifles. That is a real possibility now-who would have thought that a week ago? not possible Why? Give what state you are from, where nothing but anti-gun democrats got elected, I can understand your skepticism. But looking at the results across the Nation, can you actually say that it has no chance? |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 2:56:56 PM EDT
[#20]
Bill freakin' Clinton himself blamed the gun lobby and the anger over the AWB for the MAJOR democrat defeat that election. They most definitely are aware that they are taking a beating in key races because of gun control.
The Governor race in Maryland this election is just one more log on the fire. KKT comes out almost a sure-winner and goes on a huge anti-gun spree to the public and gets TROUNCED in the election. That has got to hammer it home for even the thickest headed Brady-bunch freak... |
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Posted: 11/6/2002 3:54:24 PM EDT
[#21]
I think the real question is, will another one be introduced in Jan. of 2005? Although I'd like to believe the Rep. will not introduce another one in 2004, I can see it happening. And if that doesn't happen, then we better hope that the Rep. maintian control of both the House and Senate and "W" gets re-elected.
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Posted: 11/7/2002 9:11:20 AM EDT
[#22]
This Urban Legend of the AWB passing by one vote is getting old. On paper it is true that this is what happened but as is the reality of much in our existence appearances are deceiving.
The Democrats were well aware that anti-gun votes are a death-knell for many in their party in certain areas of the country and when they knew stastically that the AWB was going to pass, they tried to salvage as many in their party from repraisal from the gunowner block as they could. I assure it was nowhere near the split vote it is presented as and yes I did watch the whole thing on CSPAN. BTW, GWB is very much for the current AWB. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 9:30:49 AM EDT
[#23]
Does the import ban of foreign AW's sunset with the 1994 bill as well?
How about the high cap mag ban? |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 10:59:12 AM EDT
[#24]
Christ people, we didnt win the war yet. we just won a battle, start writing your congressman and you senators remind them the reason there in there is because of your vote, this thing isnt over, we have many battles yet to fight, don't think the liberal scumbags are going to give up... Bluemax
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Posted: 11/7/2002 11:12:59 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted: Quoted: when was the last time you saw congress actually get rid of a law? It will sunset but make no mistake there will be a new one. Ever hear of the 18th Amendment? You know, its just possible that Gun Control might be just as much a passing fad as Alcohol Control was in the first half of the 20th. ArmdLbrl, I think you are correct. The trend is not only related to gun control, either. I think it applys to Liberalism as a whole. Views are always rolling back and forth, now it may be conservatives turn, but who knows in 20 years? That is why I never do get to huffy about this stuff. I write my letters, keep people informed, etc. I never take a "this is the end of the world" attitude. If I am wrong, however, and it is the end of the world, I am sure I will drag some of the bastards with me! |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 3:36:14 PM EDT
[#26]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Yes, lets talk about something else. Like getting rid of the cap on new Machine Gun sales and the import ban on assault rifles. That is a real possibility now-who would have thought that a week ago? not possible Why? Give what state you are from, where nothing but anti-gun democrats got elected, I can understand your skepticism. But looking at the results across the Nation, can you actually say that it has no chance? Not enough people want it to happen for them to be willing to risk their very small edge in the vote counts. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 3:58:00 PM EDT
[#27]
Quoted: No Atencio The Democrats lost the Congress in 94'- TWO MONTHS after the AW measure passed. Even they admit that their position cost them. And they admit that it was a factor in Al Gores loss as well. Yeah and i cant get one of those bastards on the DU to agree that it cost them this year too. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 6:52:00 PM EDT
[#28]
Hmmm, I think it will go something like this,
1. The bill will sunset as we all know. 2. There will NOT be another bill BEFORE the sunset. 3. the liberal/marxist media will PUNISH (report it as their top news story every day for a year) the Repubs for letting it sunset. 4. That (and if the economy does not improve) might be enough for the Dems (marxists) to regain power. 5. They then will pass another ban. 6. If none of this happens you will still see the States, one by one, pass laws banning them. After about 2 or 3 years, AW will be banned in around 30 or 35 states. And I think this last point the most important. I think the main reason more States have not yet passed their OWN ban is because of the Federal ban. Once that is gone look for the Dems in State legislatures to start crying about how they need to enact a State ban now that the evil Repubs put Mom and Dad and litte Billy at risk of their very lives by allowing tens of thousands of "assault weapons" on America's streets. So, the ban will die, THIS congress will not pass another, but it WILL come down the pike again some other way, either with a new Dem. congress in 2004 or 2006 or State by State. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 7:06:04 PM EDT
[#29]
Quoted: Quoted: No Atencio The Democrats lost the Congress in 94'- TWO MONTHS after the AW measure passed. Even they admit that their position cost them. And they admit that it was a factor in Al Gores loss as well. Yeah and i cant get one of those bastards on the DU to agree that it cost them this year too. Something to remember. The America of 1994 is NOT the America of 2002. Even that show on the "Comedy Channel", "The Man Show" (motto "American men are obese brain dead infantile jackasses") is anti-gun. Even after 9-11, I doubt anyone could deny that MORE Americans would vote for an AW ban today than would have in 1994. And in a couple of years it will be more still. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 7:35:28 PM EDT
[#30]
Something to remember. The NRA of 1994 is NOT the NRA of 2002. The AWB was passed by one measly vote in a Democrat controlled Congress. Republicans have all three power bases. You pessimists are starting to annoy me.
If we don't let up on the pressure THE AWB WILL SUNSET!!!!!!! The media will move on to how faggots are still mistreated. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 7:38:24 PM EDT
[#31]
Quoted: Something to remember. The America of 1994 is NOT the America of 2002. Even that show on the "Comedy Channel", "The Man Show" (motto "American men are obese brain dead infantile jackasses") is anti-gun. Even after 9-11, I doubt anyone could deny that MORE Americans would vote for an AW ban today than would have in 1994. And in a couple of years it will be more still. How did you come up with that idea? More states have right to carry laws now. Gun sales are up since 94 for the most part, and gun ownership is up as a whole. There are more semi-auto rifles on the market now. The Democrats are hiding from the gun issue. I just don't se how you think the AWB would have better odds today then 10 years ago?. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 7:46:34 PM EDT
[#32]
Is there a provision that it has to come to a vote.If not no chance will it pass.After the sweep they would be crazy to even think about bringing it up.
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Posted: 11/7/2002 7:58:12 PM EDT
[#33]
Quoted: Remember, the republicans were in control in the middle nineties and were unable or unwilling to turn back the AWB. Unable. They tried in 1996 to repeal it, but the effort failed. Of course, GWB is no Bill Clinton, so... |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 8:00:00 PM EDT
[#34]
Belloc: Interesting that you bring the state legislatures into the process. That is surely something to consider. No worries here in TX,
but still... DanM |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 8:41:51 PM EDT
[#35]
Quoted: Quoted: Something to remember. The America of 1994 is NOT the America of 2002. Even that show on the "Comedy Channel", "The Man Show" (motto "American men are obese brain dead infantile jackasses") is anti-gun. Even after 9-11, I doubt anyone could deny that MORE Americans would vote for an AW ban today than would have in 1994. And in a couple of years it will be more still. How did you come up with that idea? More states have right to carry laws now. Gun sales are up since 94 for the most part, and gun ownership is up as a whole. There are more semi-auto rifles on the market now. The Democrats are hiding from the gun issue. I just don't se how you think the AWB would have better odds today then 10 years ago?. Your correct observations about more states having a right to carry in no way refutes what I think might happen. You see, while what you said is true, it is also true that many other states have passed even more gun control laws. Cali, New York, and MD come to mind first. So I think you will see some 10 or 15 states protect the 2nd and even pass gun owner friendly laws like the right to carry, others will go in quite the other direction. And I think that when the AW ban sunsets, if another is not passed, most of those States locked in the liberal vice will pass their own AW ban so fast your head will spin. Heck, I will even go on record right now and say that if no new federal AW ban is enacted in 2004, within 2 years you will have at least 10 States enact their own version of a ban. I would be surprised if you at least did not think this a decent possibility. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 9:10:38 PM EDT
[#36]
Belloc,
I can see it. Excellent issue for liberal media to push and get the general population all worked up about to place further restrictions on our rights. It's the perfect Soccer Mom issue. Kalifornistan is supposed to be the bleeding edge of the nation in trends and we saw what they've already done. I see you position as highly plausible. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 9:52:25 PM EDT
[#37]
Quoted: Does the import ban of foreign AW's sunset with the 1994 bill as well? No, that is an executive order. Only the president can reverse it. Fortunately, there are well documented ways around that (installing US parts, etc), although it would be nice to have it gone (so AK, G3, etc... prices would drop, etc)... How about the high cap mag ban? Yes, that is part of the AW ban. Dead in 2004, unless the congressional GOP goes stark raving mad (Bush said he would not oppose renewal, however with the GOP in control of congress (just like it was when he made the statement), he does not have to oppose it - congress will do it for him)... |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 9:59:57 PM EDT
[#38]
Quoted: Is there a provision that it has to come to a vote.If not no chance will it pass.After the sweep they would be crazy to even think about bringing it up. The provision in question says that the current law EXPIRES in 2004. So it's more than a vote, they have to pass a WHOLE NEW LAW (or pass a law repealing the sunset clause). I doubt the GOP will do this. Too much of the leadership comes from 'safe' areas where gun control is a big turn off. Trent Lott and Dick Armey's constituents will not 'punish' them for blocking an AWB renewal, just like Gephardt's wouldn't turn on him for passing it. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 10:46:49 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted: 3. the liberal/marxist media will PUNISH (report it as their top news story every day for a year) the Repubs for letting it sunset. I can't believe what I'm seeing from you people. Maybe it's because I was too young in 1994, but I don't ever remember the media focusing on the AWB. It's amazing that you people think every American cares about guns (either pro or against). I would say a large majority are completely indifferent. I think the guy who said gun control is a dying fad (like prohibition) is correct. Even a few years ago there was so much more pressure from anti-gun folks than there is now. People don't care any more. They're finding other issues to give their lives purpose. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 10:49:23 PM EDT
[#40]
Quoted: Something to remember. The America of 1994 is NOT the America of 2002. Even that show on the "Comedy Channel", "The Man Show" (motto "American men are obese brain dead infantile jackasses") is anti-gun. Even after 9-11, I doubt anyone could deny that MORE Americans would vote for an AW ban today than would have in 1994. And in a couple of years it will be more still. I believe you have it backwards. Maybe things are different in your area, but I hail from what is supposedly one of the most liberal states of the union. Most people don't give a rip about the AWB. Republicans just [b]swept[/b] minnesota. Senator, a very pro-gun governor, HUGE majority in the state house (80 some seats republican, 50 some democrat), etc. Gun control is a dying fad. |
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Posted: 11/7/2002 11:23:47 PM EDT
[#41]
Quoted: No Atencio The Democrats lost the Congress in 94'- TWO MONTHS after the AW measure passed. Even they admit that their position cost them. And they admit that it was a factor in Al Gores loss as well. Even if I agreed with your remark why then did Clinton win in 1996. Did all the gun owners decide to vote for him? Issues I believe contributed to the fall of the Democrats in 1994. 1. In October, 1994, Newsweek ran a survey that 59% of the population considered the country to still be in a recession. 2.The Rube-Goldberg universal health care bill. Most people who voted were probably satisfied with their healthcare. 3.Clinton was extremely unpopular at the time. 4.The issue of gays in the military. This and other minority issues turned main street/middle-town America away from Clinton and the Democratic Party. 5.Religio-cultural strains. Not counting the standard Protestant right, Clinton had poor relations with the Catholic Church and the military establishment. 6.Surgeon-General Joycelyn Elders comment, when asked if masturbation might be taught as a way to prevent AIDS?" she replied, "Masturbation is something that is a part of human sexuality, and is a part of something that perhaps should be taught". 7.Not since the time of McGovern had the Democratic image of being in favor of all sorts of minorities and social-activist interest groups against not only the cultural, but also the economic, interests of the white middle- class male population. This group had the largest demographic swing in the 94 election. 8.Rotting of society. Examples such as Smith and O.J. Simpson with the lavish media attention given showing the decline of society. 9.Old fashion partisan election. The Republicans ran a nationalized election. They bridged the gap between ideological conservatism and operational liberalism. Ten of the last twenty-one previous off-year elections have had the president’s party loose at least 40 seats. |
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Posted: 11/8/2002 4:24:11 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted: Quoted: Does the import ban of foreign AW's sunset with the 1994 bill as well? No, that is an executive order. Only the president can reverse it. Fortunately, there are well documented ways around that (installing US parts, etc), although it would be nice to have it gone (so AK, G3, etc... prices would drop, etc)... is this true? so with the stroke of his pen boosh could remove a few gun laws for us huh? why doesn't he do it? the same reason no gun law will ever be repealed. |
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Posted: 11/8/2002 6:31:02 PM EDT
[#43]
see.....
[url]http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=4&f=64&t=53253[/url] |
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Posted: 11/8/2002 7:14:38 PM EDT
[#44]
Its not a DYING fad, just a fad. At some points in history, usually after some psyco takes out a bunch of school children, it has and will in the future come back. It has since the 1930s with machineguns.
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