Prediction Electorate Map Updated NEW MAP

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Prediction Electorate Map Updated NEW MAP (Page 1 of 2)

Posted: 8/30/2008 12:30:52 AM EDT

This is something I was playing with. Do you guys think it will have any chance of being the results? This is what I think it will end up as with McCain possibly winning over VA. I also REALLY hope McCain can get PA although it went to Gore , Kerry , and Klinton in the previous 3 so I doubt it.

You can play with your own map here if you want: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:07:21 AM EDT

[#1]

I played with it too. I will tell you this: Virginia and North Carolina will NOT go blue. I'm thinking Michigan might be a tossup.

Depending on how the debates go, I could see Iowa, even Maine, Washington and Oregon being in play.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:09:56 AM EDT

[#2]

Wishful thinking on PA.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:16:15 AM EDT

[#3]

Virginia will probably break for McCain, but it will certainly send Mark Warner to the senate.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:21:21 AM EDT

[#4]

Change NM and PA to blue, NC and VA to red. That's my prediction. NH is really freaking close so they MAY go red too.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:30:06 AM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
Change NM and PA to blue, NC and VA to red. That's my prediction. NH is really freaking close so they MAY go red too.

I don't know how much it's going to help but new mexico Governor and the VA Governor endorsed Obama and wasn't sure on NC because I thinkit has a pretty big african american population. The reason I made PA red was because Obama said PA people are bitter gun and religion clingers

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:31:55 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Change NM and PA to blue, NC and VA to red. That's my prediction. NH is really freaking close so they MAY go red too.

I don't know how much it's going to help but new mexico Governor and the VA Governor endorsed Obama and wasn't sure on NC because I thinkit has a pretty big african american population. The reason I made PA red was because Obama said PA people are bitter gun and religion clingers

Yeah, I agree on PA. I wouldn't count it out yet.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:32:39 AM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Change NM and PA to blue, NC and VA to red. That's my prediction. NH is really freaking close so they MAY go red too.

I don't know how much it's going to help but new mexico Governor and the VA Governor endorsed Obama and wasn't sure on NC because I thinkit has a pretty big african american population. The reason I made PA red was because Obama said PA people are bitter gun and religion clingers

Yeah, I agree on PA. I wouldn't count it out yet.

The only problem wtih PA is Philly pretty much decides for them it seems. I guess I should have made NC red considering the guy who said he wanted to kill Obama is from there

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:35:14 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Change NM and PA to blue, NC and VA to red. That's my prediction. NH is really freaking close so they MAY go red too.

I don't know how much it's going to help but new mexico Governor and the VA Governor endorsed Obama and wasn't sure on NC because I thinkit has a pretty big african american population. The reason I made PA red was because Obama said PA people are bitter gun and religion clingers

Unless Obama bin Biden really fucks up the debates and McCain outright savages him PA is not going Republican this election. Reverse with NC, where McCain is consistently handing Obama his ass.

VA is close, but I'm 90% positive McCain will lock it up in the end.

New Mexico is just not in the cards, spread is even bigger than PA.

NH I would really watch... McCain has shot up there like crazy lately. If he beats Osama up badly in the debates (which he will) a McCain victory there would not at all be difficult.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:36:40 AM EDT

[#9]

I'm from NC and let me tell you, we're not going blue.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:39:14 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:
I'm from NC and let me tell you, we're not going blue.

Good, Thanks for the assurance. I've only passed through there a few times but the few places I stopped where VERY African American so i wasn't sure. I'll fix the picture later cause i've been up all night and dont feel like it now lol but, do you think NV will surely go red?

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:40:16 AM EDT

[#11]

After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:43:30 AM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

I'm not so sure I feel bad about the racism. I mean I do but shit if they're allowed to be racist and vote for him on the sole issue that being black auto qualifies you ....then I think we should be able to vote because we think being black un-qualifies him. Not saying I would ever do such I think but I find it hard to feel bad about. IMO Whites aren't the one keeping the race issue alive. It's pathetic that race has to play a factor at all.

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:51:36 AM EDT

[#13]

map updated. Do you guys think CO will swing blue? Also vermont is in play for us isn't it?

Posted: 8/30/2008 3:51:42 AM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Honestly, the racism part doesn't bother me, mostly because I think BHO is pulling in a lot of votes by pulling the guilt by racism card. A lot of the comments he makes are essentially racist towards white people. Unfortunately by popular culture, racism can only go one way.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:29:16 AM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Honestly, the racism part doesn't bother me, mostly because I think BHO is pulling in a lot of votes by pulling the guilt by racism card. A lot of the comments he makes are essentially racist towards white people. Unfortunately by popular culture, racism can only go one way.

Thats my opinion also. The reverse "Wilder effect". I think alot of people in MI, OH and PA are going to say out loud, "yeah, I'm union and so I'm voting for Obama", but when they close that voting booth curtain, say "~~Hope~~ Nope"

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:32:02 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Honestly, the racism part doesn't bother me, mostly because I think BHO is pulling in a lot of votes by pulling the guilt by racism card. A lot of the comments he makes are essentially racist towards white people. Unfortunately by popular culture, racism can only go one way.

Thats my opinion also. The reverse "Wilder effect". I think alot of people in MI, OH and PA are going to say out loud, "yeah, I'm union and so I'm voting for Obama", but when they close that voting booth curtain, say "~~Hope~~ Nope"

man do I hope you know what you're talking about. I really do.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:54:44 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Honestly, the racism part doesn't bother me, mostly because I think BHO is pulling in a lot of votes by pulling the guilt by racism card. A lot of the comments he makes are essentially racist towards white people. Unfortunately by popular culture, racism can only go one way.

Thats my opinion also. The reverse "Wilder effect". I think alot of people in MI, OH and PA are going to say out loud, "yeah, I'm union and so I'm voting for Obama", but when they close that voting booth curtain, say "~~Hope~~ Nope"

man do I hope you know what you're talking about. I really do.

So do I.

Note to yankees- DO NOT GET OFFENDED. Its been my experince with dealing with people from "up North" that they actually tend to be a bit more errr..."distrustful" of Blacks-through lack of contact. I think that the South gets the racist rap, and deservedly so, but the South is a whole lot more integrated than the North is- I think people in the south, except for the rural rednecks, have more experience with Blacks in everyday life. They're just co-workers or people on the street, good or bad.

When there is lack of everyday dealing with Blacks, I think the stereotypes get more traction.

While Republicans will get them blame for being racist, it just might be voting Democrats who don't want to elect a black man. Hence my voting booth comment above.

Just one anectdotal example: When I went on my honeymoon in Maine, and people found out we were from a large Southern urban city, all they could ask were: "Are there really a lot of blacks in the south?", "How to they act?", etc...They thought it was fascinating- we got a real kick out of it.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:58:34 AM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
NH I would really watch... McCain has shot up there like crazy lately. If he beats Osama up badly in the debates (which he will) a McCain victory there would not at all be difficult.

Palin is a very popular choice up here from what I have read on local newspapers and heard from neighbors. I expect McCain will get a nice boost from the next NH polling.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:00:38 AM EDT

[#19]

All that being said on a recent visit to Virgina I had a conversation with a relative of my wife's and he said "I have never voted anything but democrat in my life and Obama isn't getting my vote".

I think this will happen more than people realize.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:00:58 AM EDT

[#20]

Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:12:00 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Oh I've never thought minorities would vote anything but Obama. There is one thing the media pundits are right about, The One cannot win without white males.

You can't use that map as an indicator. Minorities have historically voted Dem and that hasn't stopped those Southern states from going Red for a while. But look at Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:14:44 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Oh I've never thought minorities would vote anything but Obama. The there is one thing the media pundits are right about, The One cannot win without white males.

You can't use that map as an indicator. Minorities have historically voted Dem and that hasn't stopped those Southern states from going Red for a while. But look at Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

When's the last time they had a minority candidate to vote for in the general election? There will be a massive turnout of minority voters in the south compared to what normally occurs. At least one state in the south will go (D) and possibly more than one. The states with the largest minority populations most likely.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:17:33 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Oh I've never thought minorities would vote anything but Obama. The there is one thing the media pundits are right about, The One cannot win without white males.

You can't use that map as an indicator. Minorities have historically voted Dem and that hasn't stopped those Southern states from going Red for a while. But look at Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

When's the last time they had a minority candidate to vote for in the general election? There will be a massive turnout of minority voters in the south compared to what normally occurs. At least one state in the south will go (D) and possibly more than one. The states with the largest minority populations most likely.

I was thinking so as well which is why I originally had NC blue. At the same time we may be able to pick up some states that we usually don't get due to white men who wont vote for Obama and Hillary supporters that want someone with Experience which isALOT more of them then you might think.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:25:00 AM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Oh I've never thought minorities would vote anything but Obama. The there is one thing the media pundits are right about, The One cannot win without white males.

You can't use that map as an indicator. Minorities have historically voted Dem and that hasn't stopped those Southern states from going Red for a while. But look at Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

When's the last time they had a minority candidate to vote for in the general election? There will be a massive turnout of minority voters in the south compared to what normally occurs. At least one state in the south will go (D) and possibly more than one. The states with the largest minority populations most likely.

But they are still minorities in those states. I don't think its enough to swing the entire state. Look at the two most heavily covered- Mississippi (home of Trent Lott) and South Carolina (home of Strom Thurman). Both also currently have Rep Governors.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:31:09 AM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

Oh I've never thought minorities would vote anything but Obama. The there is one thing the media pundits are right about, The One cannot win without white males.

You can't use that map as an indicator. Minorities have historically voted Dem and that hasn't stopped those Southern states from going Red for a while. But look at Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

When's the last time they had a minority candidate to vote for in the general election? There will be a massive turnout of minority voters in the south compared to what normally occurs. At least one state in the south will go (D) and possibly more than one. The states with the largest minority populations most likely.

But they are still minorities in those states. I don't think its enough to swing the entire state.

In several states they make up over a third of the population. Considering how apathetic young white voters are they probably make up about half of the actual voting population, or at least in this election. When some states are only split by narrow margins anyway, it doesn't take a lot to tip the scales. Percentages are here.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:19:32 PM EDT

[#26]

State..........Elect votes.. Obama.. McCain ..Difference ..2004 ..2000

Georgia .....(15) ............43.7 ....50.0 ...McCain +6.3 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
Mississippi .(6) .............42.0 ....53.7 ...McCain +11.7 Solid Bush +19.6 Bush +16.9
Louisiana ...(9) ............38.0 ....54.3 ...McCain +16.3 Solid Bush +14.5 Bush +7.7
Alabama ....(9)........... 34.7 .....56.3 ...McCain +21.6 Solid Bush +25.7 Bush +14.9

RCP also has SC as solid McCain, but I could not find any stats.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:33:03 PM EDT

[#27]

height=8

Quoted:
height=8

Quoted:
After living in Michigan for 6 years, I think Palin might turn it to McCain. Many of the folks I ran into there voted democrat. Why? Because of the union and their parents had always been democrats. Most them had a couple of things in commen. They owned property up north. They liked to hunt. And they where racist. I think Palin and Obama might turn them to cross the union line. I think it is wise for them to cross to vote for Palin to protect their hunting and gun rights, but I find it disheartening that their racism will factor into it, but I cannot deny that it is part of the equation with many of those people I met.

Honestly, the racism part doesn't bother me, mostly because I think BHO is pulling in a lot of votes by pulling the guilt by racism card. A lot of the comments he makes are essentially racist towards white people. Unfortunately by popular culture, racism can only go one way.

Thats my opinion also. The reverse "Wilder effect". I think alot of people in MI, OH and PA are going to say out loud, "yeah, I'm union and so I'm voting for Obama", but when they close that voting booth curtain, say "~~Hope~~ Nope"

man do I hope you know what you're talking about. I really do.

So do I. h
When there is lack of everyday dealing with Blacks, I think the stereotypes get more traction.

While Republicans will get them blame for being racist, it just might be voting Democrats who don't want to elect a black man. Hence my voting booth comment above.

Just one anectdotal example: When I went on my honeymoon in Maine, and people found out we were from a large Southern urban city, all they could ask were: "Are there really a lot of blacks in the south?", "How to they act?", etc...They thought it was fascinating- we got a real kick out of it.

I totally agree. I escaped from a Connecticut a few years ago to the South. Honestly I was surprised to encounter black middle class families. I have to say that up North most of the blacks I encountered lived in the city areas.

With Palin on the ticket I can't see North Carolina going Obama.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:38:16 PM EDT

[#28]

Good lord Michigan sucks

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:38:41 PM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:
I played with it too. I will tell you this: Virginia and North Carolina will NOT go blue. I'm thinking Michigan might be a tossup.

Depending on how the debates go, I could see Iowa, even Maine, Washington and Oregon being in play.

I think there is a possibility (probability? not sure...) that ME, NH, and VT could all become a bit of a toss-up. There are many residents there who will NOT vote for a black person (don't tell me it's not true, I grew up in ME), they tend to have a maverick streak of their own, 2A rights are important, and Gov. Palin's rural background may appeal to many. Those three don't represent a huge percentage of the electoral votes (2% of total, 4% of the 270 needed to win), but every little bit makes a difference.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:44:16 PM EDT

[#30]

I'm from California and we're definitely going red. As in communist.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:47:31 PM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

img401.imageshack.us/img401/3749/94192684gq3.jpg

scary though. birth rates what they are.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:47:40 PM EDT

[#32]

Palin could get CO for McCain, the state is still in play.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:47:42 PM EDT

[#33]

Hilldog beat Obanger in PA 55 to 45%, MUCH higher turnout for Dhimmicrats than R in a hotly contested race. I expect both candidates will spend a ton of time here. Philly and inner city Pgh are in the bag for Obanger, maybe parts of NE PA also. The rest of the state will LOVE Palin.

Definite battleground.

Posted: 8/30/2008 4:53:19 PM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

img401.imageshack.us/img401/3749/94192684gq3.jpg

That's because non-whites are allowed to and, in some cases, even encouraged to think and act in racial terms. Whites, on the other hand, are brow-beaten into endorsing their own mistreatment.

Quoted:
scary though. birth rates what they are.

Diversity is a strength! That's why Mexico, South Africa and Zimbabwe are such lovely places to live.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:20:34 PM EDT

[#35]

Y'all are forgetting one very important fact. This estimate, and FTR is is a good one, neglects the looming IMPACT of Sarah Palin.

I believe that some of the states listed are in play.

We'll see...

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:22:37 PM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:
I'm from California and we're definitely going red. As in communist.

same for MD!

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:26:32 PM EDT

[#37]

Really Depends on the popular vote this year.

Many states have entered into an agreement to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:36:33 PM EDT

[#38]

Quoted:
Really Depends on the popular vote this year.

Many states have entered into an agreement to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

I know for MD it's only if every other state also does this. I assume the others are probably the same.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:41:41 PM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:
I played with it too. I will tell you this: Virginia and North Carolina will NOT go blue. I'm thinking Michigan might be a tossup.

Depending on how the debates go, I could see Iowa, even Maine, Washington and Oregon being in play.

Sorry to say it, but Maine will almost certainly go to Obama. The Northern and Eastern sections of the state is pretty conservative, but the highly populated south is pretty much part of Massachusetts as far as Ideology. Its the south that gave us that turd-wad Tom Allen. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:42:56 PM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Really Depends on the popular vote this year.

Many states have entered into an agreement to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

I know for MD it's only if every other state also does this. I assume the others are probably the same.

Is that legal?

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:48:50 PM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Really Depends on the popular vote this year.

Many states have entered into an agreement to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

I know for MD it's only if every other state also does this. I assume the others are probably the same.

Is that legal?

Distribution of state electoral vote is determined by the state legislature.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:50:36 PM EDT

[#42]

Too many fucking Californians moving to Colorado...

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:54:55 PM EDT

[#43]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

img401.imageshack.us/img401/3749/94192684gq3.jpg

scary though. birth rates what they are.

Bah, don't forget to factor in felons.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:55:58 PM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:
Distribution of state electoral vote is determined by the state legislature.

In that case, what's stopping the state legislatures from requiring that their electoral votes go candidates from a specific party?

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:57:57 PM EDT

[#45]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Really Depends on the popular vote this year.

Many states have entered into an agreement to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.

I know for MD it's only if every other state also does this. I assume the others are probably the same.

Is that legal?

Distribution of state electoral vote is determined by the state legislature.

Its been awhile since I've read the applicable part of the Constitution, but I don't think the States have the power to instruct their electoral delegates how to vote.

For that reason, I think these "faithless elector" laws are probably unconstitutional.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:58:29 PM EDT

[#46]

I think Colorado will go to McCain - but not by a huge margin.

McCain was/is steadily catching up to the annointed one until the DNC. Once the hubbub from that dies down, it'll go back to McCain.

Don't forget, the last time Colorado voted for a Dem was when Ross Perot was in the picture.

This state isn't solidly Republican, but tends to lean to the right out of the two choices.

Posted: 8/30/2008 5:58:31 PM EDT

[#47]

NH will go for McCain, he ALWAYS does well there... he won the 2000 primary there in convincing fashion, and the same for this cycle as well. I know it's an R primary I'm talking about, but for some reason they come out of the woodwork in NH for McCain, and the state has been red the past few presidential elections as well.

"Live free or die" doesn't lend itself to Obama's flavor of liberalism.

CO will be a tossup, MI, PA, and IA are also in play.

Posted: 8/30/2008 6:00:21 PM EDT

[#48]

Quoted:
Some of you people are in for a real shock in November. You're going to find out just how important race is to non-whites.

img401.imageshack.us/img401/3749/94192684gq3.jpg

....and they already vote overwhelmingly democratic. Hard to exceede 100% saturation.

The reverse will also be true.

Posted: 8/30/2008 6:00:57 PM EDT

[#49]

Quoted:
Virginia will probably break for McCain, but it will certainly send Mark Warner to the senate.

Virginia will go to McCain and not by a slim margin.

Posted: 8/30/2008 6:01:23 PM EDT

[#50]

Quoted:
Its been awhile since I've read the applicable part of the Constitution, but I don't think the States have the power to instruct their electoral delegates how to vote.

For that reason, I think these "faithless elector" laws are probably unconstitutional.

This. It's basically telling the people of the respective states that who they vote for is irrelevant, as their electoral votes will be going to whichever candidate the rest of the country votes for.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Prediction Electorate Map Updated NEW MAP (Page 1 of 2)

General » General Discussion

Warning

Confirm Action

About AR15.COM

Stay Connected

Newsletter

Contact Us