He essentially vanished from sight a few years back - no tapes, no videos, nothing...

Is he dead/retired, or do you think he's still 'bad guy #1'?

Personally, I think that Al-Zwahiria (sp) is really #1, and Bin Laden is dead (either of natural or un-natural causes), but the only reason no one will call AZ the #1 is that they can still poke at the Admin for not catching the prior dumbfuck....

i think he is dead. i've said this for years. there was a report of a convoy leaving tora bora that fit the profile that was hit with 2000lb bombs. basically desintegrated.

there have been, execpt for one case i think, tapes of his voice. the one exception was really bizare, came out right before bush got reelected. was osama standing in front of a podium offering some sort of cease fire. completely out of character. personally i think perhaps that was some sort of collaboration between israeli intelligence and pixar..

look at it this way.. zawahiri is at least as big a target. more militant, more outspoken, more aggressive. he was supposedly osama's sort of spiritual idealogue and much of the energy behind al quaida.. he puts outs videos of himself all the time. he is surely wanted as much as osama.. he soes this and osama doesn't...

i think the biggest question extant is.. do the big guys know. does bush know. obviously bush would like to talk about getting him. but make him a martyr? or keep quiet..

the only wild exception that i would accept is that he is in iran under house arrest and well hidden. with the iranians, who looked at the taliban as an enemey keeping him on ice as a sort of two edged sword.. trade him to the west for something big.. or let him go at the right time...

Yes.
And Ayma AL zwahiri is actically planning a new attack as well as gaining support and money.
Azzam the AMerican embarrassed the US horribly by being able to go on his own to Pakistan and within weeks appear on film with the number 2 man in AQ.
I love my country, and I think what we did in Iraq is what was needed, but I dont have faith in the fact that my government has the balls to send to the dogs of war to get those that did 9-11.
They will run free untill they die of old age, creating more of their ilk the whole time..


I have books telling you who was goig to be in control of the Kavkaz/chechen movement in ten years, that they didnt care about, even when chechens were using thier war as a training ground for fighters world wide..
No one listened, and in ten years, something will happen and it  will be the rage to go after these guys as well, but that will pass when a new reality shows comes on, or a new SUV comes out...
People dont want OBL any more, well at least the public. Us gun crowd and political watchers do, but we dont really count...
Ive studied this for years, written some books, lived in Europe, and Turkey, and traveld through the ME, and I just dont think our country has the stomach to combat what is needed with militant Islam, out military sure as hell does, but those that sign their checks dont have any fears personally other than re election druthers, and remaining scandal free to hamper their happy thoughts...

This war will go for another thousand years...

Quoted: Yes. Usam lives. And Ayman AL zwahiri is actically planning a new attack as well as gaining support and money. He was always the leader anyway, the spiritual leader and money man was Laden, he wasnt a tactician. Azzam the American embarrassed the US horribly by being able to go on his own to Pakistan and within weeks appear on film with the number 2 man in AQ. I love my country, and I think what we did in Iraq is what was needed, but I dont have faith in the fact that my government has the balls to send to the dogs of war to get those that did 9-11. They will run free untill they die of old age, creating more of their ilk the whole time.. I have books telling you who was goig to be in control of the Kavkaz/chechen movement in ten years, that they didnt care about, even when chechens were using thier war as a training ground for fighters world wide.. No one listened, and in ten years, something will happen and it  will be the rage to go after these guys as well, but that will pass when a new reality shows comes on, or a new SUV comes out... People dont want OBL any more, well at least the public. Us gun crowd and political watchers do, but we dont really count... Ive studied this for years, written some books, lived in Europe, and Turkey, and traveld through the ME, and I just dont think our country has the stomach to combat what is needed with militant Islam, out military sure as hell does, but those that sighn their checks dont have any fears personally other than re election druthers to hamper their happy thoughts...

AMEN BROTHER - That is exactly what I believe.

Scary future for us ........

I will hopefully be here for another 30 yrs  but man I worry every day about the world my children are going to live in.

Hard to say.  I think he's still alive but I also think Zawahiri's the centerpiece now.

HH

Odds are pretty good he’s dead. He’s nearly 50 I believe and probably wasn’t in the best of health to begin with. In those conditions people in their late 40s would have a fairly high mortality rate. (I’m 40 now and some days I think I’ll be real lucky to make 50, and I’m not living in a hole in the ground covered in my own feces.)

A strict chain of command is great for regular military but it’s suicide for terrorist groups. They have to have a much more open command structure. That means one hand probably doesn’t have a clue that the other hand even exists.

And I doubt Al Qaeda really has a leader. I think it’s more likely that every wannabe terrorist just claims to be a member. Some jackass starts claiming that he’s got a direct line to Bin Laden and uses that as a recruiting tool. If he gets a name for himself then other groups contact him and actually does start working for “Al Qaeda.” (even though that particular “Al Qaeda” might not have anything to do with Bin Laden’s original group.) That means it’s going to be virtually impossible to wipe them out since they just regenerate themselves.

Quoted: Odds are pretty good he’s dead. He’s nearly 50 I believe and probably wasn’t in the best of health to begin with. In those conditions people in their late 40s would have a fairly high mortality rate. (I’m 40 now and some days I think I’ll be real lucky to make 50, and I’m not living in a hole in the ground covered in my own feces.)

Im not flaming my friend, just wondering.
I see so many who are un informed due to the horrible media coverage we see day in and day out.
But why would you think Mr Laden is still in a cave living in his own feces?

We know for a fact that Ayman Al Zwahiri, Al wasi, Azzam the American, and two or three other top leaders are all living in cities in Pakistan.
The last three movies released said they were.
If you look at the timeline of Usama's life, you see the amount of time is less than 5% of his lifetime, although not known to live in upscale areas, he has always had a nice little humble compund to live in.
So I would think it no different now, I would almost say for sure Waziristan, and tribal areas of Pakistan, wheres the Paki goverment publicly said 6 mos ago that they are calling off the search in these areas, is where he is.
Im sure with power, running water, and excellent medical care.
Also it has been proven that many of the reports given to the west on his health were false, he does not use dialisis as was once said.
I do admit he is getting up there in years, I just rufuse to not pay these guys the attention and respect they deserve at remaining alive.

Study up on the mujahadeen in that area and you will see how well their medical outposts are for the top guys.
I do think he and #2 are seperated for their own safety, and they do not travel.
But still in Tora bora living in a cave just doesnt register with those that follow this religiously.
I still wouldnt rule out a larger city in Pakistan.
His medical attention, proper if not excellent living conditions, and his safety is important to him and his movement, and they do not come cheap, but he has and never will be broke.
And from the miltant islamic webpages, he is still active in planning and inspiring.
Untill I see his head on a post attop a hummer coming out of the tribal areas of Pakistan, I will not stop listening and keep studying the man...
But again, my two cents, take it or leave it.