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Posted: 10/10/2005 5:15:34 PM EDT
Or at least a link to my possible dupe of a question.

Is this like sars and west nile where it is a big worry, but most people can beat it or what.  I tried google, but everything I clicked on just beat around the bush.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:28:34 PM EDT
Its just a flu that people do not have natural immunity towards.  Its not some killer disease like ebola.

Think about the people that have it now.  Poor chinese and vietnamese peasants who got it from close (unsanitary) contact with chickens.

You think they are in the best of health to begin with?

Immune Dificient People and Children are at risk, and even more so than normal flu but its not bad.

That said they fear it could mutate into something more risky, but again flu strains are not lethal to healthy people.

Its not worth busting out the tinfoil for.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:30:37 PM EDT
Supposedly the 1918 epidemic flu virus was especially lethal for people in the 20-40 age category. In other words, healthy people. I'm not really sure what you can do to prepare for this though. Wash your hands is the best advice, I guess.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:40:47 PM EDT
The 1918 flu killed 50 million people.  It was very similar to the Avian flu that is in Asia right now.  
if it comes here, and if it can transmit from person to person it will be a very big deal.  The CDC scientists are fairly concerned.  We would be foolish not to be aware and prepared.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:43:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/10/2005 6:48:22 PM EDT by gardenWeasel]
Influenza A virus has 15 haemagglutinin subtypes (H1–H15) and nine neuraminidase subtypes (N1–

N9) which allows for a whole crap load of possible HN subtypes.  H1, H2, and H3 are the only three H-

types that affect humans.  N1 and N2 are the only N subtypes that affect humans. That means that we

don’t have to worry about all 256 combinations, however tt is possible for a new H or N to show up

because of a process known as antigenic shift (as opposed to the point mutations AKA antigenic drift

that cause the new strains every year).

The process is facilitated when a human H is transmitted to a bird and combines with a bird N.  This

novel virus may then be transmitted back to humans, or in some cases to pigs.  Pigs are a problem

because they can be infected by both human and bird flu viruses.  This makes it possible for them to

be co-infected with a human and a bird virus at the same time and therefore pigs are considered a

possible source of new flu types. Genetic shift causes most of the worst flu epidemics and since

the flu will be of a new type, there will be no effective vaccine.

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:44:42 PM EDT

Originally Posted By LonePathfinder:
Its just a flu that people do not have natural immunity towards.  Its not some killer disease like ebola.

Think about the people that have it now.  Poor chinese and vietnamese peasants who got it from close (unsanitary) contact with chickens.

You think they are in the best of health to begin with?

Immune Dificient People and Children are at risk, and even more so than normal flu but its not bad.

That said they fear it could mutate into something more risky, but again flu strains are not lethal to healthy people.

Its not worth busting out the tinfoil for.



You might want to educate yourself a biut before turning on the faucet.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:49:23 PM EDT
So if you get this flu then you have what percent chance of survival???
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:51:48 PM EDT
If it hits hard, at least there will be less traffic during rush hour.

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:52:55 PM EDT
It destroys lung tissue, as did the 1918 flu.  IT is very different that the flu you are familiar with.  You get it, and start coughing up blood, and your lungs start to fill with blood.  
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:58:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By enigma2y0u:
So if you get this flu then you have what percent chance of survival???



No hard data, estimates have ranged from a robust 90% chance of survival to a less then optimistic 50% chance of survival.
Its hard to get a good estimate as so far those areas infected have been very close lipped about exactly whats going on.

Now, what worries me even more then the bird flu is the fact I read an article which stated the Chinese military was invovled, possibly to investigate the useof bird flu as a biological weapon. Which may explain Chinas reluctance to let WHO and other agencies in to really see whats going on.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:58:44 PM EDT
Read up lads; www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:59:01 PM EDT
Consider those 20-40 year olds who died in 1918.  Many were in Army Camps for the war.  Not the best of conditions to combat such viruses.  I suspect thats where a lot of the statistics for prime of life victims come from.

Also consider the standard of living in 1918 versus today.  While people may have been hardy, many did not live in what we would consider sanitary conditions.  Lots of people were sickly to some degree just owing to the nature of living and standards of health back then.  Sure they would be on their death bed with a major illness.  Many of those that died were refugees from WWI, again living in crappy conditions and also probably not in the best of diet.

Measles?  Life threatning back then.  Childhood disease today.

SARS?  Nothing happened.
West Nile?  Not much.

Yes there is the possibility it can mutate, but this is 2005, and people in developed nations are far healthier from a biological or virological standpoint than they were in 1918.

I swear, everytime I turn on the TV there is some sky is falling news story.  You people think we would have never made the first billion years
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 6:59:18 PM EDT
My wife is freaking about this. Living in a border town presents unique circumstances in situations like this. And, as a teacher, she feels especially vulnerable. I guess the only thing we have going for us is our preparedness to bug out if the situation calls for it.

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:01:22 PM EDT
If true, that would make for some interesting reading right now.


Originally Posted By Specop_007:

Originally Posted By enigma2y0u:
So if you get this flu then you have what percent chance of survival???



No hard data, estimates have ranged from a robust 90% chance of survival to a less then optimistic 50% chance of survival.
Its hard to get a good estimate as so far those areas infected have been very close lipped about exactly whats going on.

Now, what worries me even more then the bird flu is the fact I read an article which stated the Chinese military was invovled, possibly to investigate the useof bird flu as a biological weapon. Which may explain Chinas reluctance to let WHO and other agencies in to really see whats going on.

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:03:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By toddlerp:
If true, that would make for some interesting reading right now.


Originally Posted By Specop_007:

Originally Posted By enigma2y0u:
So if you get this flu then you have what percent chance of survival???



No hard data, estimates have ranged from a robust 90% chance of survival to a less then optimistic 50% chance of survival.
Its hard to get a good estimate as so far those areas infected have been very close lipped about exactly whats going on.

Now, what worries me even more then the bird flu is the fact I read an article which stated the Chinese military was invovled, possibly to investigate the useof bird flu as a biological weapon. Which may explain Chinas reluctance to let WHO and other agencies in to really see whats going on.




I wish I could find it. I cant even remember where I saw it, and it was months ago.
I'll see if I cant dig it up though.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:03:07 PM EDT
Actually if you are healthy and have medical care you will most likely survive.  But thats only in a first class medical system like we have.  If this thing busts out in China or India, thousands or millions will die.  Also as more people get it more will die.  

The DENSE population of those countries with the poor sanitation and poor hygiene make it a most advantageous situation for the viruses to mutate and infect people.

Now its not advantageous for the virus to kill.  The common cold used to kill but with time it has lost its virulence.  The virus cannot continue and will die off if all the hosts are dead.  So it wants to multiply but eventually it will get toned down so it will not kill.  They are hoping for a similar situation with the HIV virus.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:04:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By libertyforall:
Supposedly the 1918 epidemic flu virus was especially lethal for people in the 20-40 age category. In other words, healthy people. I'm not really sure what you can do to prepare for this though. Wash your hands is the best advice, I guess.



From what I understand, it actually turns the immune system against the body.  That is why the strongest and healthiest are most at risk - they have the strongest immune systems.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:08:35 PM EDT
Heres a good thread with a ton of links and articles. While a very long read, its also very much worth it.
Click

The thing that scares me about it is, this is the thing thats scaring the shit out of the medical world as a whole. Those guys generally arent tinfoil hat types. If the medical community is saying it could be really bad, that makes me take note.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:08:51 PM EDT
Wouldn't this be a good thing from the earth's standpoint. Kind of like managing the deer population on a hunting property so they thrive. It would suck to lose loved ones or my own life but it wouldn't be terrible as far as overpopulation is concerned. Africa would get hit the hardest. It would probably wipe out a good portion of the continent with their high AIDS rate and lack of resources.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:10:13 PM EDT
The fact Bush is talking about military quarantines gives me the willies.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:12:12 PM EDT

Originally Posted By LANCEMAN:
Wouldn't this be a good thing from the earth's standpoint. Kind of like managing the deer population on a hunting property so they thrive. It would suck to lose loved ones or my own life but it wouldn't be terrible as far as overpopulation is concerned. Africa would get hit the hardest. It would probably wipe out a good portion of the continent with their high AIDS rate and lack of resources.



we're not overpopulated


Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:12:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/10/2005 7:17:47 PM EDT by toddlerp]




Some pics I took when I was in China and Hong Kong last year.
What I found wild was that when entering Hong Kong they took my picture at customs. I thought it was for some communist purpose but evidently it was because they were looking for a heat signature that could be a sign of SARS.

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:15:10 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
Actually if you are healthy and have medical care you will most likely survive.  But thats only in a first class medical system like we have.  If this thing busts out in China or India, thousands or millions will die.  Also as more people get it more will die....



It's true we have a first class medical system in the U.S., but it's not setup to handle pandemics.  How long would it take before there is a shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, IV needles, saline, etc ... ?

Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:15:55 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:19:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By mattja:
The fact Bush is talking about military quarantines gives me the willies.



With speed people move around nowadays I just don't see how a quarantine is going to be very effective unless it was caught very early, like isolated to a small town. We don't have enough military or police to securely quarantine a couple of large major cities and that is where it is likely to hit and spread the fastest.  Look at how many days it took to secure New Orleans and it is an ideal location due to very limited routes into and out of the area. If it gets in the airlines to start off forget about it. Travel would be restricted, we might even get some kind of papers to show out of the deal.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:25:20 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Red_Beard:

Originally Posted By LANCEMAN:
Wouldn't this be a good thing from the earth's standpoint. Kind of like managing the deer population on a hunting property so they thrive. It would suck to lose loved ones or my own life but it wouldn't be terrible as far as overpopulation is concerned. Africa would get hit the hardest. It would probably wipe out a good portion of the continent with their high AIDS rate and lack of resources.



we're not overpopulated





I didn't say we were overpopulated, but it would delay us reaching the point when we would be. I know there are too many damn people in Florida now as it is
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:27:45 PM EDT
One thing I haven't heard the experts talk about is how easy it is to travel these days as compaired to 1918.

While we could shut down all air and port  traffic into the country, many countries in Asia and Europe w/ high population densities would have a hard time closing down their borders. If it spreads at a pandemic level, it could happen in a very short period of time.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:28:18 PM EDT
Monday, a sick man gets on a plane with three legs - Boston to Chicago to LA, sneezing the whole trip in a confined space.  Each business person within 25-40 feet get exposed to virus in the droplets.  Thursday, as each one of these exposed people gets on planes to head back home, they too are sneezing.

We are overconfident.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:30:15 PM EDT
There really isn't anything we can do about it, aside from the same precautions that one would take during flu season, like staying away from the guy in the corner sweating bullets, shivering, and puking his guts out.  In the end, it is up to our god-given immune system should we become exposed.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 7:30:23 PM EDT
You'll be fine unless you're one of those Sissified-Americans who had so much medication growing up that your body in unprepared to fight Turd World diseases. Get a flu shot if you're worried, and start eating pork.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 8:12:41 PM EDT

Originally Posted By GotGuns:
There really isn't anything we can do about it, aside from the same precautions that one would take during flu season, like staying away from the guy in the corner sweating bullets, shivering, and puking his guts out.  In the end, it is up to our god-given immune system should we become exposed.



How do you get away from someone sitting next to you on a full plane?
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 8:29:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/10/2005 8:30:11 PM EDT by Chaingun]
The Avian or Bird flu is similar to the 1908 flu pandemic.  It's been here before.
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 8:40:38 PM EDT
I'll still go to the range
Link Posted: 10/10/2005 8:44:17 PM EDT

Originally Posted By KlubMarcus:
You'll be fine unless you're one of those Sissified-Americans who had so much medication growing up that your body in unprepared to fight Turd World diseases. Get a flu shot if you're worried, and start eating pork.




Riiiight
Link Posted: 10/11/2005 4:45:52 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Monday, a sick man gets on a plane with three legs - Boston to Chicago to LA, sneezing the whole trip in a confined space.  Each business person within 25-40 feet get exposed to virus in the droplets.  Thursday, as each one of these exposed people gets on planes to head back home, they too are sneezing.

We are overconfident.



Wait wait wait.  There are people with three legs????

Oh now i get it, you have to read the whole sentence.
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