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Posted: 10/28/2004 6:55:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/29/2004 3:33:37 PM EST by -Absolut-]
Just 5 short days until the elections!
Let's see who can predict the outcome the closest.
The winner gets.........the ability to say he was right! and that he was smarter than all the professional pollsters!

Prize for closest guess! free Kalashnikitty t-shirt from Greywolf2112



My prediction:
President Bush- 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
john kerry- 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:56:43 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/28/2004 6:57:54 AM EST by Zaphod]
sKerry with 110% of the popular vote and 3,596 EV's.

Edited to reflect reality!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:56:44 AM EST
bush with 100% of the popular vote
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:57:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/29/2004 2:43:09 PM EST by paenutz]
I predict Lawsuits Lots of them.

Edit for spelling... Law Suites? Doh! Thats gonna leave a mark
Where is brain fart icon?

Bush 294 EC votes
48% of popular vote
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:58:12 AM EST

Originally Posted By paenutz:
I predict Law Suites Lots of them.



Is that a new hotel chain?
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:59:23 AM EST
Bush 49.7% popular vote. Kerry 48.9% Popular vote.

Electoral Votes: Bush 290, Kerry 248.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:59:58 AM EST
Btw,


what does

Officia Election Prediction Thread!!

mean?




HA!! my first grammer nazi!!!!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:02:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By mtechgunman:
Btw,


what does

Officia Election Prediction Thread!!

mean?




HA!! my first grammer nazi!!!!



It's Latin. It makes him sound smart.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:02:37 AM EST
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:03:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes


Pfffft !!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:04:35 AM EST
Bush by 7 EV's.

Now get out there and VOTE. Bring friends. Lots of Friends.

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:06:06 AM EST
45 states.

50.4% popular vote.

No clue on EV's....but, well, way more than 270.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:09:44 AM EST
Cats and dogs, living together...MASS HYSTERIA!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:10:06 AM EST

When a friend and I talked about the election many months ago, I predicted that President Bush would win without fail.

I will stand by that.

But, I am getting a bit worried now.



Zen

"This is my rifle, there are many like it, but this one is mine"
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:11:26 AM EST
TheRedHorseman: 75% of the popular vote 320 electoral votes

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:20:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



-1 for sheer gall.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:22:44 AM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



I hope when Kerry barely loses you go home, turn off the lights, crawl into bed, and quietly cry yourself to sleep.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:24:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



I hope when Kerry barely loses you go home, turn off the lights, crawl into bed, and quietly cry yourself to sleep.



Barely? It'll be close... but it won't be THAT close. Bush will have enough margin to make the Dims retension of all those thousands of lawyers just another waste of cash on the liberals part.

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:31:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By RevDeadCorpse:

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



I hope when Kerry barely loses you go home, turn off the lights, crawl into bed, and quietly cry yourself to sleep.



Barely? It'll be close... but it won't be THAT close. Bush will have enough margin to make the Dims retension of all those thousands of lawyers just another waste of cash on the liberals part.




+1
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:31:54 AM EST
Bush will win both the electoral AND popular vote!

MICHIGAN will go for Bush!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:39:11 AM EST
Well, I guessed optimistic; but I'll stand by my earlier prediction on THR...

Bush 51%
Kerry 48%

Senate Republicans: +2/+3
House Republicans: +5/+6

Bush takes Ohio and Florida and at least two states Gore won in 2000. Voter turnout right around 111 million.

No estimate on electoral votes since there are just too many possible outcomes; but very few of those possibilities look good for Kerry and they are all long odds.

As for cyanide's 300 EV prediction for Kerry, Kerry can only top 300 votes by winning every RCP contested state except NH. So the chances of cyanide's prediction coming true depend on one of two things:

1) Every single pollster in the United States horribly underestimating the Dem turnout for this election

2) Kerry winning a 50/50 coin-toss six times in a row.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:44:39 AM EST
Bush %32

sKerry %32

Nader %32

other %4


EV split accordingly.


The decision on the tie will end up in the courts and eventually they will choose.......

<­BR>

2whiskeyP for king!!!!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:45:03 AM EST
I say Bush with about 285 EV and 50% of the vote.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:52:36 AM EST
"We are the DU.........resistance is futile.......you will be assimilated."
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:54:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/28/2004 11:20:16 AM EST by guns762]
Bush 53%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%

310ish for Bush Kerry around 220ish

I'm thinking positive.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 7:57:32 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/28/2004 7:59:28 AM EST by avengeusa]
i think absolut has is about right for the numbers

followed by a herd of frivolous lawsuits, accusations of voter fraud, voter intimidation ect


heck, i should scream voter intimidation

bush stickers on vehicles equal flat tires, key jobs, and broken windows
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:05:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/28/2004 8:07:00 AM EST by thompsondd]
zombie victims carrying sign of disenfranchisement in the streets

sharks in the courtroom

sniveling weasels on ALL the major broadcast stations

<­BR>and a rejoiceful nation of patriotic freedom loving Republicans carry the White House and Senate


it'll be close

Bush by 7-20 EV


EDITED to add: originally I thought we wouldn't know until we saw who walked out to get inuagurated in JAN.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:09:09 AM EST
Bush 49%

kerry 55%
(Less the 8% of dead. fictitous, and duplicate votes)


so kerry really 47%

Nader 2%
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:10:47 AM EST

Originally Posted By motown_steve:
Bush will win both the electoral AND popular vote!

MICHIGAN will go for Bush!



i'll gladly give you a mag if that happens.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:13:03 AM EST
Initially, Bush 53% popular vote and 325 electoral votes.


After the law suits, sKerry 67% popular vote and 361 electoral votes
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:19:02 AM EST
it will be a tie and the house of representatives will have to decide.........
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:23:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
Just 5 short days until the elections!
Let's see who can predict the outcome the closest.
The winner gets.........the ability to say he was right! and that he was smarter than all the professional pollsters!


My prediction:
President Bush- 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
john kerry- 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



Bush with 300 EVs, +-5%

Thanks to loonie candidates like the LP, GP, etc, neither side will get 50% of the popular vote.

A run-off system in the future would be nice, to keep 3rd parties out of Presidential politics untill they can demonstrate enough support...
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:24:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By thecleaner:

Originally Posted By motown_steve:
Bush will win both the electoral AND popular vote!

MICHIGAN will go for Bush!



i'll gladly give you a mag if that happens.



Go find a spare one...

MI is within the MOE, and some concider it TIED...

Even more interesting, HI may be up for grabs...
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:27:10 AM EST
My prediction:


OWNED
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:29:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By sonofbp:
My prediction:
www.coxandforkum.com/archives/BRANDEDart450X.gif

OWNED




My new desktop image!!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:30:22 AM EST
With all of the cheating that is going on I don’t think Bush has a chance.

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:32:31 AM EST
Bush 52% Kerry 47% 300 electorals

Bank it.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:34:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



I hope when Kerry barely loses you go home, turn off the lights, crawl into bed, and quietly cry yourself to sleep.



or at least just go

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 8:49:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Duke-Nukem-:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
Mark it down absolut

President Kerry - 50% popular vote, 300 electoral votes
Bush - 48% popular vote, 238 electoral votes



I hope when Kerry barely loses you go home, turn off the lights, crawl into bed, and quietly cry yourself to sleep.


that doesn't suprise me at all cyanide, you are just confirming what many of us have been saying all along

duke, he'll dissapear for awhile after the election and hope everyone forgets about how he was always bashing Bush. but we'll still be here
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 9:30:39 AM EST

Originally Posted By arowneragain:
45 states.

50.4% popular vote.

No clue on EV's....but, well, way more than 270.


a sgtar follower i see
if President Bush were to take 45 states, it would also mean he took around 65% of the popular vote
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 9:36:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By arowneragain:
45 states.

50.4% popular vote.

No clue on EV's....but, well, way more than 270.


a sgtar follower i see
if President Bush were to take 45 states, it would also mean he took around 65% of the popular vote



He can take 50% +1 vote in 45 states, and only get a single vote in the other 5 states, and win.

But seriously, I really tink he'll get 45 states.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 9:38:46 AM EST

Originally Posted By arowneragain:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By arowneragain:
45 states.

50.4% popular vote.

No clue on EV's....but, well, way more than 270.


a sgtar follower i see
if President Bush were to take 45 states, it would also mean he took around 65% of the popular vote



He can take 50% +1 vote in 45 states, and only get a single vote in the other 5 states, and win.

But seriously, I really tink he'll get 45 states.


If indeed he does, I vow to personally get in my car, go to the grocery store, buy a case of your favorite beer, and deliver it to you in person on Nov. 6th
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 9:53:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By arowneragain:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By arowneragain:
45 states.

50.4% popular vote.

No clue on EV's....but, well, way more than 270.


a sgtar follower i see
if President Bush were to take 45 states, it would also mean he took around 65% of the popular vote



He can take 50% +1 vote in 45 states, and only get a single vote in the other 5 states, and win.

But seriously, I really tink he'll get 45 states.


If indeed he does, I vow to personally get in my car, go to the grocery store, buy a case of your favorite beer, and deliver it to you in person on Nov. 6th



1) I don't drink

2) between a Bush victory and Arafat kicking the bucket, we'll both be too busy directing traffic around the massive nationwide street-dances.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 10:48:13 AM EST
Dick Morris said last nite that Kerry taking the so called missing explosives story and running with it will be the mistake of the campaign. This is blowing up in Kerrys face. He will regret the day he ever made a big deal out of this story. Morris also said GW will win because of this story. We will see.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 10:52:32 AM EST
Bush: 52% PV, 300+ EV

Kerry: Supporters either committing suicide or rioting in the streets. Lock and load, smoke 'em if ya got 'em.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 10:53:32 AM EST
Mondale and Minnesota.

GO BUSH!

L-a-N-d-S-l-I-d-E
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 10:57:53 AM EST
Bush = 54 States!!!!
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 11:10:14 AM EST

Originally Posted By copenhagen:
Dick Morris said last nite that Kerry taking the so called missing explosives story and running with it will be the mistake of the campaign. This is blowing up in Kerrys face. He will regret the day he ever made a big deal out of this story. Morris also said GW will win because of this story. We will see.



I kind of doubt it. I'm getting the impression no one is listening. It looks like most people have already made up their mind, that Kerry already was a c**ksmoker and planned on voting for him anyway.

My prediction is neither get 270 electoral votes, congress hands it to Bush, and we get 4 more years of the most bitter partisanship we'll see in our lifetimes. I don't care if CCW's are impossible to get in Kali, I'm strapping Nov 3 - ?
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 11:19:49 AM EST
I've got $35 bet on Kerry. I'm voting for President Bush. When it comes to betting, my "looser" kharma is so strong that Kerry has no chance.

Regards,
Mild Bill
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 11:40:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
Well, I guessed optimistic; but I'll stand by my earlier prediction on THR...

Bush 51%
Kerry 48%

Senate Republicans: +2/+3
House Republicans: +5/+6

Bush takes Ohio and Florida and at least two states Gore won in 2000. Voter turnout right around 111 million.

No estimate on electoral votes since there are just too many possible outcomes; but very few of those possibilities look good for Kerry and they are all long odds.

As for cyanide's 300 EV prediction for Kerry, Kerry can only top 300 votes by winning every RCP contested state except NH. So the chances of cyanide's prediction coming true depend on one of two things:

1) Every single pollster in the United States horribly underestimating the Dem turnout for this election

2) Kerry winning a 50/50 coin-toss six times in a row.



+1
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 1:39:32 PM EST
Bush 49.296% of Popular vote with 296 EC votes.

If he wraps up Ohio, Florida, Wisconcin and Iowa and its called early I think he will win Oregon and washington bringing his total to

50.259% of popular vote with 314 EC votes. Hawii could take it to 318

Thats my prediction and I'm sticking to it.
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