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Posted: 10/6/2004 3:10:04 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:11:21 AM EST
Was yesterday just a fluke?
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:12:16 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:13:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Fluke in what way? This map changes daily as new polls are added.



Ah ok, I forgot about that.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:17:15 AM EST
Nice map!
Hope it's true.
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry. At this point, it's close to being a lock, in my humble opinion.

FWIW, I hope all you guys are laughing at me after the election.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:29:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By Coolio:
Nice map!
Hope it's true.
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry. At this point, it's close to being a lock, in my humble opinion.

FWIW, I hope all you guys are laughing at me after the election.



Being a former PA resident I agree w/you.

Rendell will deliver the Union vote in Filthydelphia and Arm-Pittsburgh and PA will go Kerry.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:42:32 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:44:27 AM EST
I hope this map isn't an indication of how Cheney is perceived to have done last night. 321 to 285? YUK!
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:51:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/6/2004 3:52:44 AM EST by mjohn3006]
What the heck NM?? Get back here.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:54:50 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/6/2004 3:58:00 AM EST by Aardvark]
I have found this site at the L.A. Times to be pretty good. It still favors Bush but is not as agressive in assigning the toss up states. It is interactive and you can change the white states to whatever color you wish.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 4:48:48 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 4:51:47 AM EST
I doubt Ohio's status as shown, is correct.

The local news constantly reports that Bush is 5 to 7 points ahead in this state.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 4:54:54 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:26:34 AM EST
The caliban is now light blue
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:29:39 AM EST
Ohio, please pull your head out of your ass. Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:39:31 AM EST
Pretty unrealistic to forecast this far, but the projected final map still says Kerry 178 - Bush 350
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:48:29 AM EST
look how nicely pale blue Kalifornia is getting!
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:49:34 AM EST
What bugs me is that his summary of media polls show people thinking that Edwards won last night...

Now, I can see the 'Kerry won the first debate' line, but Edwards? Come on...
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:54:52 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:19:16 AM EST
This is where this slid to. What happened to the 300+ electoral votes?
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:21:02 AM EST
I'm not going to get excited about anything until Nov. 3.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:23:10 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:27:26 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
JESUS CHRIST PEOPLE THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF POLLS. FOR THE LAST FUCKING TIME, GO TO www.electoral-vote.com AND MOVE YOUR MOUSE OVER THE STATES TO SEE WHEN THE POLLING DATA IS FROM! THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY THIS IS IN ANY WAY REPRESENTATIVE OF HOW ANYBODY DID LAST NIGHT. THESE POLLS FLUCTUTATE. CAN ANYBODY SHOW ME THE LAST TIME WE WERE BELOW 270?



Goto your happy place.....


BTW thanks for posting the map...I'm lazy...and this way by coming here I can surf the .com and get the updated map...
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:29:58 AM EST
Damn Minnesota is still the wrong color
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:30:50 AM EST
just to show how liberal leaning the guy who runs the site is:



John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users.



does the moron actually believe 885 thousand people voted in an MSNBC poll!?!?
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:36:32 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/6/2004 7:45:07 AM EST by renotse]

Originally Posted By Cypher214:
Was yesterday just a fluke?




Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Fluke in what way? This map changes daily as new polls are added.



www.electoral-college.com changed methods of calculating. They changed it to a tracking poll. They started a rolling average of the last 7 days polls from each pole group. That is why there seemed to be a a sudden jump. Yesterdays map included averages from previous 7 days when Bush was higher. Now those higher days are rolling off. It will go down for a few days and then trend up because of the VP debate. The map will be less volitile but will lag by a couple of days from now on.


www.electoral-vote.com

Not a lot of change in the state polls right now. I installed new software yesterday to average recent polls per state going back 30 days. There was a create hue and cry that this was a bad thing because the race is in such a state a flux that polls that old are meaningless. In the middle of the day I changed the look-back parameter to 7 days, so now only polls within the past week are used. I agree with many readers that 30 days is too much. If I were a Republican, I would have said "I am going to stay the course, even though I am wrong." Fortunately, I am a Democrat so I can flip-flop all I want. Let's see how a 7-day look-back window works. The idea was to prevent the map from changing wildly every day. Averaging introduces some stability, but also introduces lag in responding to current events. Finding the right parameter might be tricky.


from www.electoral-vote.com
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:40:21 AM EST
If Kerry is elected I don't know what I'll do. I can't stand the thought of the laws and tax increases I will see. I'm already taking a 10% cut in pay to save the company, thats what the company says, plus paying more for my company insurance. This is bad if we loose this election.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:42:31 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:43:38 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/6/2004 7:45:41 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]

Originally Posted By CAMPYBOB:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!



I am sooooo! concerned about Ohio.
If the state isn't 5% for Bush, I believe the Unions/Dems/crooks (same thing) will deliver it to Kerry with fraudulent votes in Franklin(Columbus), Cuyahoga(Cleveland), Delaware(northern Columbus), city of Akron, and probably Mahoning(Youngstown/Ausitntown) counties. The stories about fake registrations, and record registrations are treasonous, if I am interpretting them correctly.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 7:46:01 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 8:17:57 AM EST
Although Pa has had the blue ring around it, I feel better when I see it leaning toward Bush. It makes me half ashamed that my home state will possibly go democrat!
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:00:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By Leisure_Shoot:

Originally Posted By CAMPYBOB:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!



I am sooooo! concerned about Ohio.
If the state isn't 5% for Bush, I believe the Unions/Dems/crooks (same thing) will deliver it to Kerry with fraudulent votes in Franklin(Columbus), Cuyahoga(Cleveland), Delaware(northern Columbus), city of Akron, and probably Mahoning(Youngstown/Ausitntown) counties. The stories about fake registrations, and record registrations are treasonous, if I am interpretting them correctly.



Hmmm. WTF is Nader still doing on the poll? He's not on the ballot in Ohio, yet shows 2.5%.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:02:38 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:14:35 AM EST

John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users.

The effect of the first presidential debate is starting to kick in. Kerry is surging and Bush is dropping. Kerry has retaken the lead in all-important Ohio by 49% to 48%, New Mexico by 46% to 43%, and Iowa by 48% to 47%. While all of these are within the margin of error, previous polls had Bush ahead in these states by more than the margin of error. Clearly the forward motion Kerry has been experiencing in the national polls this week is starting to show up in the state polls as well. On the other hand, Bush has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by a margin of 48% to 47%.



The DU is on top of the polls, while the Bush supporters don't seem to care. Because of this, I'm not happy with the trend. There are two more debates. Plenty of time left to seduce the swing voters.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:45:21 AM EST
From 10/03/04

Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:47:20 AM EST

Originally Posted By Coolio:
But the part about PA leaning towards Bush is a crock.
PA will go to Kerry.



I agree. In fact you could have called that one on Nov 12, 2000.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:50:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr



as long as there is a UAW, Prison union, unionized big box/ grocery workers, farmers, and the welfare dregs in Lansing, flint, detroit, and grand rapids, michigan will vote Democrat. Short of publicly taking a dump on the hood of a new Lansing made Grand Am, Kerry will win Michigan.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 9:51:55 AM EST
WOAH! CA isn't DARK blue?

KEEP THE CHANGE COMING, BOYS!
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 10:24:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 10:32:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/6/2004 10:35:31 AM EST by renotse]
Update to earlier explaination


Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
The Kerry surge is a fabrication of the sympathetic media... they tinkered with the polls post convention to create a bump... they then swing the demographics of the polls the other way and low and behold... the lead is gone, Kerry the come back kid is surging! Kerry has big mo!

Once again, national polls mean spit... how many electoral votes do you win at the end of the day, that's ALL that matters!



here is what I found out on the surge and fall-back on www.electoral-vote.com


FreeRepublic

Electoral-Vote.com is a site run by an ardent democrat which nonetheless does a pretty good job of summarizing recent polling data from reasonably reliable pollsters. Recently he switched from always using the most recent poll to using the numerical average of the last 3 polls within 7 days, citing that this would be more accurate.

However, his map turned much redder under this scheme, pushing W well over 300 electoral votes, and the people who view his website, being mostly democrats, screamed bloody murder. He promptly went back to the less accurate method of always using only the most recent poll.

One can only guess that if the new method had turned the map more blue, he would have retained it. Thus he is clearly showing his bias by tuning his methodology to get the result he wants to see.

Even so, Bush still shows 285 electoral votes as of today.



Read the 3rd paragraph from News from the Votemaster

conclusion : I'm with HiramRanger. I think www.electoral-vote.com is a manipulated site to pander to the left....

Link Posted: 10/6/2004 10:48:33 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Ramjet, aren't they in court arguing over Nader on the ballot? Plus Nader voters know they aren't going to win, they are protest voters... the kind who will likely not vote or do a write in... they are voting Nader because they hate both Bush and Kerry and are doing so even if it means Bush beats Kerry. I doubt that they will break for Kerry, or they would be there already.



I agree but was confused about Nadar even being a factor. Try here.

www.onnnews.com/Global/story.asp?S=2360970&nav=LrzsRPbe
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 11:00:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By AR15fan:

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
Michigan, last chance to not be named "Massachussetts North".

GunLvr



as long as there is a UAW, Prison union, unionized big box/ grocery workers, farmers, and the welfare dregs in Lansing, flint, detroit, and grand rapids, michigan will vote Democrat.



Exactly right... my entire family and most people I work with are sKerry morons and no amount of facts will change their minds. The unions told them how to vote and that's how they'll vote... they're all dead from the neck up!



Short of publicly taking a dump on the hood of a new Lansing made Grand Am, Kerry will win Michigan.



Even then they'll still vote for him... it's a damn entitlement mentality here in 'Massachusetts North'...

Michigan makes me sick, I swear I'm moving to Texas... just picking up my guns and loading the truck and moving...

Link Posted: 10/6/2004 11:04:21 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 11:53:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
The Kerry surge is a fabrication of the sympathetic media...

agreed.
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:24:36 PM EST

Originally Posted By CAMPYBOB:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!




Has a republican ever won without OHIO?
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 3:42:50 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 4:57:48 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By 1776:

Originally Posted By CAMPYBOB:
damn! ohio is back to blue! idiots!!!




Has a republican ever won without OHIO?



Nope... but that doesn't mean that margins were such that losing Ohio would have changed the outcome... case in point Reagan killed Mondale... he took Ohio... did he NEED Ohio?



Now that was an election night map!
Link Posted: 10/6/2004 5:00:57 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
We need republican volunteers in every polling place INSISTING that first time voters provide ID... the sad bullshit is you can present a utility bill as identification... oh boy... if I steal utility bills between now and election day and show up at the polls, can I pretend to be Shaniqwa Jones?



In our state it is ILLEGAL to rrquire ID unless you are registering...

Democrat-written election law is SOOO much fun, eh?
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