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Posted: 10/20/2004 3:23:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 4:49:19 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:25:45 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:25:45 AM EST
OH GOD!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

ALL THE POLLS SHOW KERRY AHEAD!!!

I'M GONNA GO BURY MY GUNS!!!!!111oneone
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:26:47 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:27:49 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 3:28:14 AM EST by cyanide]
Thing is undecided voters are not into the election ---
hence they do not vote in polls.

Man this is gonna be a close one................
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:31:32 AM EST
I thought I just heard that two polls are showing that Bush is opening up the margin on Kerry.

God Damnit I just wish this election was over. Of course, 1996 was the last year that we will ever know the day after the election who the President was going to be. I am afraid from now on its going ot be nothing but challenges and court cases.

I think its a good time to become an attorney who specializes in Constitutional and Election Law
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:32:20 AM EST
Electoral-Vote.com is total BS. All the polls have been showing Bush pulling ahead of Kerry.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:34:05 AM EST
These polls are all a crock of shit. How can New Mexico be weak Bush, just 3 days ago and now be solid Kerry?

I am not going to sweat Florida, from what I hear, Bush has some good numbers coming out of NJ and PA. Add winning in WI and IA and you have an easy win for Bush. Also look at these numbers as if we were voting for Kerry. Would you be feeling good right now? I think not! The only thing to worry about is all of the questions about voter fruad going on in OH and other close states.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:39:33 AM EST
Looking at those maps, the boundaries for the new republic after the next civil war are becoming evident. I always envisioned two seperate nations, but it looks as though the socialists will be split.

WOLVERINES!
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:40:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 3:41:11 AM EST by ANGST]
Kerry is gonna win


FL, PA , OH we need 2
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:42:58 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:44:23 AM EST



Come on guys keep the faith....electoral-vote.com isn't showing the trends.....
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:45:20 AM EST
OK serious question ....


While the poll numbers show an uptrend for Bush. Doesn't that only reflect the popular vote ?

Seems going by the state by state type polls is a better predictor.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:45:37 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:46:24 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Thanks Hokie, please provide links... great map, but people need to know where it came from.


No prob.
online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an1019.html
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:48:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By ANGST:
OK serious question ....


While the poll numbers show an uptrend for Bush. Doesn't that only reflect the popular vote ?

Seems going by the state by state type polls is a better predictor.



Yes it dows reflect the popular vote, however, the larger the lead in the popular vote, the better the chances that Bush will take the electoral college.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:52:49 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 3:53:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Guys, hello, we go through this every day... ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM IS COMPLETE AND UTTER BULLSHIT! We use it not because of his projections, but because it does have the latest state polling data, even if some of it is dubious at best. It is a baseline for discussion.,. which is why I included all the other data that points to it being BS... Do any of the people that respond with incredulousness read past the electoral-vote map? I think I lay out the case pretty well as to why its bullshit. I also show all the latest poll numbers which DO indicate an upward trend for Bush. I provide an alternate electoral map which is much more reasonable as well as market indicators which show where people who are putting there money where there moths are think this race is going.




Very well
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:05:04 AM EST
I so hope Kerry's base continues to crumble.

Butt the Dems I know are fired up to take out GWB.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:09:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Guys, hello, we go through this every day... ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM IS COMPLETE AND UTTER BULLSHIT!



And yet we flock to the site every day to consume that bullshit?! Every day a thread goes up headlined by the bullshit site.

Why?

Did you know: This guy operates in complete anonymity. His registration of his domain has no street address and has no real name. He uses a Yahoo e-mail address. Someone told me that the phone number he's got listed does not ring to a real line (though I've not tried it myself).
No one knows who he is, and its possible he's a Kerry campain employee at this point.

I'd never look to Feinstein's website as to news on how we're doing on the battle for the 2nd amendment, that's for sure.

Every day we see that these threads about that site are taking the wind out of the sails of guys on this board, and every day we all post about what utter bullshit that website is. But every day it goes right back up again. And every day we have at least one new person we have to worry about staying home and not voting because he's now convinced Kerry will win by propoganda ARFCOM is willingly peddling from an unreconstructed Kerry partisan.

I know you grow tired of these criticisms, but so far as I'm concerned the stakes are as high as they'll ever be. If even one voter among us stays home, or does less than he would have otherwise done in regard to energizing family and friends, that would be a damn shame. It will be even worse if its because this message board carried the water for a bullshit spin website that's probably operated by a ranking Dem. party operative.

Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:18:00 AM EST
I'm beginning to think the dude at e-v.com is from Ohio & part of the Crack for Votes Team.

While I don't share Sarge's 45 states optimism, I think this election is going to be more like Klinton/Dole of '96. I do not believe AMERICA has the stomach for a Massitwoshits effete liberal elitist.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:38:33 AM EST
This guy is amazing........

He ignores the polls that show the PotUS ahead by 3 in Florida and instead goes with the one that shows Kerry leading by 1 point, just to spin.

He goes on to outline a a new criteria for the map where undecidedes break for Kerry 2:1 AND those "voters" (notice not likely nor registered, just voters, whatever that means according to his data) will vote for the guy they're tilted to.

Fact is that 75% of Republicans like George W. Bush, 35% of Demorates like John Kerry. An energized base is important! Why is it that GWB's support in the Black community HAS DOUBLED??? Isn't that a factor?

This guy is too partisan. He's really spinning like a nut job and I won't hitting the page anymore.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:38:57 AM EST
The three states that will likely decide this election are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Whichever candidate wins two of those three has most likely won the election.

If you are a gunowner in one of those states, all of our futures are pretty much resting on your shoulders for this election. Look at Bill Clinton - he had a good NRA rating as Arkansas governor. Likewise, Al Gore was once an NRA A-rated Senator before he started proposing gun bans and registration.

John Kerry has never once turned his back on more gun control in 20 years of Senate votes. If the two Democrats named above can go from good NRA grades to being some of the most anti-RKBA presidents to ever hold office, what do you think someone who has already voted to ban .30-30 ammo, kill CMP, tax guns and ammo, and ban all semi-autos is going to do if they get elected?
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:41:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:

John Kerry has never once turned his back on more gun control in 20 years of Senate votes. If the two Democrats named above can go from good NRA grades to being some of the most anti-RKBA presidents to ever hold office, what do you think someone who has already voted to ban .30-30 ammo, kill CMP, tax guns and ammo, and ban all semi-autos is going to do if they get elected?



But, but, but, but Kerry is a hunter! I saw him with a shotgun! Besides he gonna find me a job.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:46:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By hepcat85:
.

Fact is that 75% of Republicans like George W. Bush, 35% of Demorates like John Kerry.



Not sure where you got that figure, but ...

For Kerry, It's not about liking Kerry as much as hating Bush. He's counting on the "Anybody but Bush" Thats why he doesn;t have to tell us what his plan is, because it doesn't matter. His platform is "I'm the guy that's not Bush"
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 4:50:08 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:01:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 5:03:33 AM EST by Alien]
*COUGH* Bullshit!

Wasn't it looking the complete opposite a week ago? Yeah, right, the tables turn just like that. That guy's full of shit. Combining a whole bunch of little polls that may or may not be accurate/scientific is stupid.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:04:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 5:14:15 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:07:23 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 5:08:26 AM EST by HardShell]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Gonzo... I put this to a poll the other day, your argument lost.



Did electoral-vote.com tally those votes?...



(Just kidding, HR... I enjoy these threads every day!)
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:12:23 AM EST
They are flat wrong about Florida.


Virginia? If you counted all the Kerry/Edwards stickers I saw driving in to work this morning, you too would tent to believe it.

-LS
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:12:41 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:15:03 AM EST
45 states


Sgtar15
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:15:19 AM EST
If Kerry wins Virginia, start looking for REALLY bright star in the east, and follow it.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:18:44 AM EST
If Kerry wins Virginia, start looking for REALLY bright star in the east, and follow it.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:19:53 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:26:29 AM EST
www.electoral-vote.com is just giving the DUhs a reason to riot when W wins.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:30:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:31:16 AM EST
Flordia, Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to be the keys to this election. Bush is going to have to go 2 for 3 in those states.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:32:04 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:32:07 AM EST
I just want to remind everyone that you still have time to donate to the RNC Get Out The Vote campaign. This helps get's Republicans too the polls on election day. All the polls in the world don't matter if the Republicans fail to show up in number.

www.gop.com/membership2004
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:34:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 5:35:20 AM EST by longshot_va]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By longshot_va:

Virginia? If you counted all the Kerry/Edwards stickers I saw driving in to work this morning, you too would tent to believe it.

-LS



...I'm attacking the theory LS, not you specifically..




I speculate.

I'm a real estate investor and _one_ indicator I use is the street corner. I count FOR SALE signs, SOLD signs, RENT.... etc. I trust my system as it has done well by me.

In addition to bumper stickers, I see many Kerry yard signs. Approximately 4 to 1 vs. Bush signs.

I know this is NoVA, and it is considerably more liberal that the heartland, but I was out in the Shenandoah valley this past weekend and saw many more Kerry signs (and not the ones put out on public roads but those on private property) than I had hoped to see.

I acknowledge that it is not a foolproof method, but again, it works for me and as such, YES, I think Virginia is in play. NoVA is very liberal and a key reason we now have a Democrat Governor

-LS

Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:48:33 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 5:57:52 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/20/2004 6:01:08 AM EST by philipk]
We are getting screwed in a hurry.

Remember in 2000, at mid October it looked like a Bush Electoral Vote landslide with about 320+. Then the last three weeks Bush lost his advantage and almost lost the race.

Today Bush barely had the Electoral lead last week. He is losing it fast.

Two weeks ago I said Bush will win.

Last week I said Kerry will win with a slim majority.

I now predict a Kerry landslide (Electoral) with 300+.

WE ARE SCREWED!!!!

PS
My god, Virginia is up for graps?
The beginning of the end.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:00:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:07:46 AM EST
phillipk

You better fucking go out and vote no matter what you think.

Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:10:02 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:13:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By longshot_va:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By longshot_va:

Virginia? If you counted all the Kerry/Edwards stickers I saw driving in to work this morning, you too would tent to believe it.

-LS



...I'm attacking the theory LS, not you specifically..




I speculate.

I'm a real estate investor and _one_ indicator I use is the street corner. I count FOR SALE signs, SOLD signs, RENT.... etc. I trust my system as it has done well by me.

In addition to bumper stickers, I see many Kerry yard signs. Approximately 4 to 1 vs. Bush signs.

I know this is NoVA, and it is considerably more liberal that the heartland, but I was out in the Shenandoah valley this past weekend and saw many more Kerry signs (and not the ones put out on public roads but those on private property) than I had hoped to see.

I acknowledge that it is not a foolproof method, but again, it works for me and as such, YES, I think Virginia is in play. NoVA is very liberal and a key reason we now have a Democrat Governor

-LS




My wife has been arguing this point with me as well. IMHO, I think it's because of two things:

1) The left is SERIOUSLY fired up and vocal this year. Traditionally, they have always had a better grassroots, activist core that will "sticker and sign" for their own causes and a willingness to "do what it takes" (vandalize and steal) against their opponent.

2) A lot of Republicans are honest to God afraid of getting cars vandalized and a LOT of lawn signs are being stolen.

I am not completely uniformed in coming to this theory. I was a Democratic campaign manager in the late 80s-early 90s on several national campaigns. I am VERY well acquainted with the "winked at" tactics of that party.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:15:51 AM EST
Here's an interesting site on polling.

whyfiles.org/009poll/index.html
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:19:43 AM EST
see sigline.
Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:30:23 AM EST

Originally Posted By GonzoAR15-1:
phillipk

You better fucking go out and vote no matter what you think.




I already voted absentee. Of course I voted Bush!

I haven't missed an election of any kind since May 1975. I have voted in every primary, general, and special election. I live in a town where the Democrats win every office and the local races are decided in the primarys. So in the odd years, when I go vote at the primaries, I often have no candidates to vote for - just issues. Still I ALWAYS vote.

Link Posted: 10/20/2004 6:31:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By GonzoAR15-1:
phillipk

You better fucking go out and vote no matter what you think.




Brother, I don't agree with you often... but A-Fuckin-Men!



H.R.

For what it's worth, we agree on a lot more than you think.

I'm just super concerned about the effect of turnout on election day.

Its decided all the "biggies" in the last decade or so.

GB1st was polling right there with Clinton right until the end when the politicized Iran-Contra prosecutor announced at the last moment he was going to indict members of the administration.

GWB was ahead of Gore by 5 points until the Democrats pulled an October surprise with the DUI ticket.

As far as the polls go, I think they're all a crock at this point. They're working on assumptions that have no place in reality. Stephen Green (vodkapundit.com) wrote this, and I think he's exactly right:


Say it with me now: It's all a bunch of crap.

The polls all suck, for reasons gone into by people way smarter than I am. The predictions all suck, because everybody is working from the same assumptions, based on voting patterns from the last election. In 2000, the world was as at peace as it ever is, the economy was still in the final giddy stages of a really good drunk (and I should know), and an untried George W. Bush was challenging a not-quite-human, not-quite-incumbent Al Gore for the White House.

All that has really very quite seriously changed.

We're still suffering a post-bubble hangover (and I should know), the world is more at war than it has been since at least Vietnam, and a battle-weary Bush is facing off against Debate Machine John Kerry.

And yet everyone - myself included - still bases all their predictions on a tight race? I don't know how this thing is going to pan out. Neither do you. But right now, I feel as though the electorate is going to play all of us pundits - amateur and professional - for fools.




And I'll tell you something else: The swing states are going to go in a block. That is, it will either be Bush or Kerry by 300+ electoral votes in the end. If Bush breaks 300+ electoral votes, I think it is very realistic to think he'll pick up NJ and Minn. Frankly, judging by the 2002 half-time elections, which the pollsters got very wrong (with the exception of Mason_Dixon which got almost every race right), the electorate has changed post-911 in ways people still don't fully understand.

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