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VA, USA
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Posted: 9/24/2023 9:48:21 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: MTG is one of the most idiotic politicians I have ever seen and is a total asset to the Democratic party. Her lunacy severely discredits conservative causes.  Her lunacy is literally jaw-dropping, as I catch myself with my jaw dropped. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 9:53:57 PM EST
[#2]
Kherson direction: formation of a Marine strike group to attack Crimea
September 24, 2023  🔻The situation in the occupied part of the Kherson region is becoming more and more interesting. The AFU by forces of the tactical group "Omaha" continues to gain a foothold on Kazatsky Island, despite losses. Yesterday, an observation post of the 131 reconnaissance battalion of the AFU was destroyed by an artillery strike of the RF Armed Forces. However, by the evening in the southwestern part of the island Ukrainian units began to equip positions again. The activity of enemy reconnaissance groups is covered by artillerymen and mortars, shelling the front line from all means. Russian fighters respond with artillery and aviation strikes. 🔻At the same time, the redeployment of units of the Marine Corps Command of the Ukrainian Navy continues in the Kherson region. To date, 6,870 people, 46 tanks, 223 armored vehicles and eight artillery guns have been transferred to the direction. And that's not all. So far, only the formations of 35, 36 and 37 brigades of marines have arrived. Also expected to arrive are 38 Ormp and seven artillery divisions. All these formations have been withdrawn from the Vremievsky section, which is why there is a lull there now. ❗️ Judging by the concentration of forces, the Ukrainian armed forces have prioritized an offensive across the Dnieper to reach Crimea. Therefore, attempts to occupy the island zone of the Dnieper to secure a bridgehead continue. Novaya Kakhovka should be considered the most probable direction. But the realization of the plan is possible only with a simultaneous strike in the Orekhovsky section, as well as from the Black Sea. Taking into account the increasing activity of the Ukrainian landing force near the coast of the peninsula, the preparation is in full swing. Moreover, at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line, the Ukrainian armed forces are once again preparing for an assault.
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Posted: 9/24/2023 9:55:29 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#3]
Civilians protest Russian occupation near Sevastopol this morning by destroying air defence system with molotov coctails
VIDEO  It is dark and fuzz y so not sure what system that is. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 9:58:32 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Kherson direction: formation of a Marine strike group to attack Crimea September 24, 2023 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6zYXPhWMAA32cv?format=jpg&name=large 🔻The situation in the occupied part of the Kherson region is becoming more and more interesting. The AFU by forces of the tactical group "Omaha" continues to gain a foothold on Kazatsky Island, despite losses. Yesterday, an observation post of the 131 reconnaissance battalion of the AFU was destroyed by an artillery strike of the RF Armed Forces. However, by the evening in the southwestern part of the island Ukrainian units began to equip positions again. The activity of enemy reconnaissance groups is covered by artillerymen and mortars, shelling the front line from all means. Russian fighters respond with artillery and aviation strikes. 🔻At the same time, the redeployment of units of the Marine Corps Command of the Ukrainian Navy continues in the Kherson region. To date, 6,870 people, 46 tanks, 223 armored vehicles and eight artillery guns have been transferred to the direction. And that's not all. So far, only the formations of 35, 36 and 37 brigades of marines have arrived. Also expected to arrive are 38 Ormp and seven artillery divisions. All these formations have been withdrawn from the Vremievsky section, which is why there is a lull there now. ❗️ Judging by the concentration of forces, the Ukrainian armed forces have prioritized an offensive across the Dnieper to reach Crimea. Therefore, attempts to occupy the island zone of the Dnieper to secure a bridgehead continue. Novaya Kakhovka should be considered the most probable direction. But the realization of the plan is possible only with a simultaneous strike in the Orekhovsky section, as well as from the Black Sea. Taking into account the increasing activity of the Ukrainian landing force near the coast of the peninsula, the preparation is in full swing. Moreover, at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line, the Ukrainian armed forces are once again preparing for an assault.
Wow, that would be big news if UA expands that toe hold into another breach assault. 46 tanks and more on the way. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:11:17 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: I would love to see a blanket policy. Any model of anything designed and fielded before 1990 gets sent as outdated and to be replaced with new gear. Dear Z-man we are cleaning out our Cold War tech and sending you the following outdated crap (exact quantities to follow): B-52 Uh-1 AH-1 C-130 Abrams Ma Deuce U-2 F-16 F-15 M113 Humvee Shit tons of napalm, nerve gas, nukes, all that Cold War explodey M4 1911 (yes we found some) As we uncover more old stuff I’ll forward it on under Misc. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another stand up senator!
Send all the cold war munitions we have been stockpiling. New designs are always in the works I would love to see a blanket policy. Any model of anything designed and fielded before 1990 gets sent as outdated and to be replaced with new gear. Dear Z-man we are cleaning out our Cold War tech and sending you the following outdated crap (exact quantities to follow): B-52 Uh-1 AH-1 C-130 Abrams Ma Deuce U-2 F-16 F-15 M113 Humvee Shit tons of napalm, nerve gas, nukes, all that Cold War explodey M4 1911 (yes we found some) As we uncover more old stuff I’ll forward it on under Misc.  Most of that stuff is still in front line use for the US. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Reagan era was the last time we had strong, comprehensive investment in conventional war assets. We had huge cuts in the Clinton era, the GWOT era saw investment in specialized stuff like MRAPs while we rode the wheels and the wings off of all kinds of vehicles, and that was followed by the Obama era sequestration cuts. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:13:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: Fltot]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: MTG is one of the most idiotic politicians I have ever seen and is a total asset to the Democratic party. Her lunacy severely discredits conservative causes. I’m not saying that they are related, but damn!  
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:16:48 PM EST
[#7]
It was a productive week. Very. We have many good defensive and other solutions.
Defense packages. From the United States, it is artillery, required shells, missiles for "highmars", missiles for air defense, additional air defense systems, tactical vehicles and some other types of weapons that will make themselves known on the battlefield. From Canada, we have a decision on long-term defense support. The amount is half a billion US dollars. In particular, these are "medevaks" - evacuation vehicles, which are very necessary at the front. They agreed on production and supply. There is a historic American decision on the joint production of weapons and defense systems, including air defense. This is something that was an absolute fantasy until recently. But it will become a reality. We will make it a reality. Everyone who works for the state. Separately, I want to thank the Canadian government for its willingness to allocate funding for the Holodomor-genocide museum, for the completion of this museum. It is symbolic that Canada will support Ukraine in the protection of historical memory. Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/7968 |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:19:32 PM EST
[Last Edit: Veccio]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: They are not just rotting, we are fixing them up as radio controlled and shooting them down as target drones. It's fucking sickening. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By RockNwood: We have something like 128 confirmed surplus F16 that are still usable but not wanted by our AF. That is not counting the hundreds that are near scrap status. I assume we sell Vietnam new export models, not the surplus. We could donate or sell at minimal "we ain't going to use it" cost all the surplus ones to Ukraine. The issue I am livid about is that it is financially doable without interfering with anyone else, may actually save us storage, upkeep or scrapping costs. Yet the administration simply won't. It easily can but won't. The second outrage is that ESCALATION is another excuse given. Yet we are selling to Vietnam which BORDERS China and is an historical enemy of China and we know it will piss off China. So finances and are lame excuses for withholding US F-16. FJB and FJS and FMM Thank you. I knew we had a bunch rotting somewhere. It is beyond despicable not to send what we can. They are not just rotting, we are fixing them up as radio controlled and shooting them down as target drones. It's fucking sickening. Between the EU and the US there are more airframes available than Ukraine has pilots ready to fly them. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:21:18 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Most of that stuff is still in front line use for the US. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Reagan era was the last time we had strong, comprehensive investment in conventional war assets. We had huge cuts in the Clinton era, the GWOT era saw investment in specialized stuff like MRAPs while we rode the wheels and the wings off of all kinds of vehicles, and that was followed by the Obama era sequestration cuts. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GenYRevolverGuy: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Another stand up senator!
Send all the cold war munitions we have been stockpiling. New designs are always in the works I would love to see a blanket policy. Any model of anything designed and fielded before 1990 gets sent as outdated and to be replaced with new gear. Dear Z-man we are cleaning out our Cold War tech and sending you the following outdated crap (exact quantities to follow): B-52 Uh-1 AH-1 C-130 Abrams Ma Deuce U-2 F-16 F-15 M113 Humvee Shit tons of napalm, nerve gas, nukes, all that Cold War explodey M4 1911 (yes we found some) As we uncover more old stuff I’ll forward it on under Misc. Most of that stuff is still in front line use for the US. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Reagan era was the last time we had strong, comprehensive investment in conventional war assets. We had huge cuts in the Clinton era, the GWOT era saw investment in specialized stuff like MRAPs while we rode the wheels and the wings off of all kinds of vehicles, and that was followed by the Obama era sequestration cuts. It was hyperbole for the purpose of humor.  I’ll type it slower next time. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:31:33 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F60OzIWXQAAWjWu?format=png&name=900x900 This photo is being circulated online - as they say, Girkin was beaten in a pre-trial detention center Versions of what happened to the Russian terrorist and the "angry patriot" differ. They even claim that it could have been decorated this way by a captive "Azov man", with whom Strelkov-Girkin was taken for a walk in the pre-trial detention center, or by a certain "right-wing radical". We are waiting for details and stocking up on popcorn. https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/79996 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F61rsRBWMAAKaBn?format=jpg&name=small
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:41:48 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That black car sure noped outa there in a hurry. 
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:42:03 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By j_hooker: I wonder how the “Z” fervor is in Russia now that it’s 20 months. Perhaps, not so patriotically cool to have Z plastered all over your Lada? Still in full force as far as I can tell. Maybe worse because their losses are making them even more stubborn than usual. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:43:25 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: The Iraqis rigged a business jet to launch Exocets and nearly sunk the USN frigate Stark with it in 1987, is it impossible for Ukraine to rig cruise missile platforms with this and that? I assume Ukrainians can out redneck engineer Iraqis. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/93CC69D3-0437-4E99-BDBA-BB336830C18D_jpe-2965452.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/CA9059BE-DB56-48F0-B2AB-D669D4E55AF6_jpe-2965453.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/33F475D4-F443-4115-BFF7-EF715D53B77C_jpe-2965455.JPG I think it’s highly likely they already have HARPOONS on their Migs. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:45:14 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. Any pilot good enough and educated enough (English fluency needed) to complete an F16 course(s) are going to be worth more to Ukraine than the jet. They would have to be silly to put their best pilots in disposable airframes just wishing them the best on surviving/ejecting when they need those pilots to survive and stick around to build a cadre. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:50:00 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Civilians protest Russian occupation near Sevastopol this morning by destroying air defence system with molotov coctails VIDEO https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3922-2965476.jpg It is dark and fuzz y so not sure what system that is. No way to know if its old footage. It isn’t winter, but it could be from any other time. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:51:20 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: The ones our guard retired were block 30's mid 80's birds. The migs are ancient but possibly also sturdier airframes that weren't flown nearly as much. I do think a lot of it is optics and or red lines from the kremlin. Missiles are one thing. American planes dropping bombs on the Russian army is arguably a step above. But launching himars and storm shadowing headquarters make pretty tough video for the russian powers that be. Shit is going to crack soon. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: The ones our guard retired were block 30's mid 80's birds. The migs are ancient but possibly also sturdier airframes that weren't flown nearly as much. I do think a lot of it is optics and or red lines from the kremlin. Missiles are one thing. American planes dropping bombs on the Russian army is arguably a step above. But launching himars and storm shadowing headquarters make pretty tough video for the russian powers that be. Shit is going to crack soon. Are you VT ANG? I remember the angst from the marxists in Burlington over them being stationed there  Originally Posted By thehun06: Because our real fight will be with China ... supporting Ukraine needs to be led by the majority of the EU ... that is THEIR fight 100% ... that said ... instead of giving F16s to Ukraine ... Ukraine has funds to spare ... sell it to them vs giving it to them ... but I think older Grippens will be the ticket for the Ukies ... Why not do both? |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:53:24 PM EST
[#17]
GMLRS hit at #5
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Posted: 9/24/2023 10:56:40 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That’s terrifying. Amazing how people can’t see what a game changer that is. Not just for them, but for us too. We should be putting everything we have into making sure we have domestic capability to make Millions of those. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 11:17:31 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: That's terrifying. Amazing how people can't see what a game changer that is. Not just for them, but for us too. We should be putting everything we have into making sure we have domestic capability to make Millions of those. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 11:21:13 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Veccio: Flying one isn't like hopping in your car and driving to the store to pickup some smokes or even training a tank crew. Not only does the pilot have to be proficient and capable in the clapped out 70s special, all of the maintainers have to be really proficient on it as well because it's a clapped out 70s airframe. Any pilot good enough and educated enough (English fluency needed) to complete an F16 course(s) are going to be worth more to Ukraine than the jet. They would have to be silly to put their best pilots in disposable airframes just wishing them the best on surviving/ejecting when they need those pilots to survive and stick around to build a cadre. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Veccio: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. Any pilot good enough and educated enough (English fluency needed) to complete an F16 course(s) are going to be worth more to Ukraine than the jet. They would have to be silly to put their best pilots in disposable airframes just wishing them the best on surviving/ejecting when they need those pilots to survive and stick around to build a cadre. If you missed it, for the last month pilots and mechanics have been in training, due to complete in the spring. They are already sending pilots up in clapped out airframes. It would be nice for the US to send them newer aircraft. But older flyable ones are better than ZERO from us. Use the beaters for in-country training or limited engagements and put the top pilots in the Euro supplied F-16. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 11:49:05 PM EST
[#21]
Roundup of Russian Telegram chatter. The chat is unverified, I read and translate the gobshite so you don’t have to. I do not endorse the views expressed, do not take them to mean factual. Always Do Your Own Research. 👉 The authorities have stopped compensating businesses in border regions for damage caused by shelling. As the Cheka-OGPU learned, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, which is entrusted with coordinating the restoration of damaged or destroyed enterprises in the Belgorod region that were hit, has stopped accepting applications for restoration grants since August. This is explained by the lack of money in the budget, although the amount of grants did not exceed 40-50% of the damage. 👉 Since the beginning of the year, wages in the Russian Federation have increased by 46% - HH. The salaries of service personnel were raised the most to almost 100 thousand rubles. For administrative personnel the increase was 82%, for specialists in the transport and logistics fields - 61%. (Herr Putin still insists inflation is below 5%) 👉 After the ban on the export of fuel abroad, a gasoline shortage will begin in Russia, experts believe. According to them, the refinery has one to two weeks before its storage facilities are filled with diesel fuel. After this, they will be forced to reduce fuel production, which, in turn, will lead to a shortage of gasoline. 👉 "I had coffee with Traber, went to Kaliningrad and died". Continuing the topic of relations between Putin and Sobchak, the Cheka-OGPU spoke with a person who knows a lot about the circumstances of the latter’s death. Sobchak died in the arms of two people - Andrei Burlakov and Shabtai Kalmanovich. Both of them were later killed and will no longer be able to talk about what happened. But Anna Etkina, a close friend of Burlakov, who was with him at the time of the murder and was seriously injured, can shed a little light on the death of Putin’s “teacher.” According to Etkina, Burlakov told her that Sobchak flew to the Kaliningrad region after meeting with Ilya Traber (Antikvar), with whom he had coffee. He sat down in his room to read a newspaper and suddenly died. The body was immediately taken away by FSB officers. The investigation was personally supervised by the deputy head of the FSB Directorate for St. Petersburg, Alexander Bortnikov, who recommended that the witnesses “keep silent.” There are no witnesses alive, but Bortnikov’s career has taken off and he has been director of the FSB since 2008. |
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Posted: 9/24/2023 11:53:28 PM EST
[#22]
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Posted: 9/24/2023 11:59:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#23]
“Something needs to be written about Khalino. It's difficult to write anything here. My condolences brothers... We will live!" |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:02:29 AM EST
[#24]
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:11:04 AM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. To me this war is proving the importance of ground launched, surface to surface missiles with a variety of seekers and warheads. Systems that are mobile, easily programmable, serviceable and require little training. I'm all for F-16s to Ukraine, but keeping them going will consume a lot of resources. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:12:50 AM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#26]
As we were discussing yesterday about Russia trying to counterattack in front of their defensive lines rather than fall back to those prepared positions.
 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023 |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:19:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: To me this war is proving the importance of ground launched, surface to surface missiles with a variety of seekers and warheads. Systems that are mobile, easily programmable, serviceable and require little training. I'm all for F-16s to Ukraine, but keeping them going will consume a lot of resources. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. To me this war is proving the importance of ground launched, surface to surface missiles with a variety of seekers and warheads. Systems that are mobile, easily programmable, serviceable and require little training. I'm all for F-16s to Ukraine, but keeping them going will consume a lot of resources. Yes it would be nice if we can do two things at once. Or conceive of Ukraine doing two things at once that already are doing. They already have a few jets. They are getting a few dozen F-16 from Europe. I am not proposing some alien technology transfer. Ukraine is flying and maintaining ancient MiG-29 and Su24s. By spring they will be trained and operating and maintaining 40+ European supplied F-16. The US has more surplus F-16 than any European country yet we provide ZERO. There is no rational excuse. Ukraine has more pilots ready to fly than they have aircraft. Ready room chairs have proven ineffective launch platforms. All the while Ukraine ALSO launches missile attacks some air launched and others land launched (S-200, Neptun). And they are building new missiles and long range drones. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:22:03 AM EST
[#28]
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:27:36 AM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: New before/after satellite photos of BSF HQ. We might be looking at 4 hits instead of 3. That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture 
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:30:22 AM EST
[#30]
 Germany will also supply Ukraine with Gepard SPAAGs, IRIS-T medium-range missiles, thousands of shells and mines, 200 MRAP armored vehicles and other weapons and military equipment. - 30,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition - 3,800 rounds of smoke ammunition for 155mm artillery - 105,000 rounds of explosive, smoke and flare mortar ammunition in 120mm caliber - 480 AT-2 mines |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:35:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#31]
Anyone wanna volunteer? 😂. Might be a method best left to the past.
[This is not a remake of Hatari!] 
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:38:10 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Anyone wanna volunteer? 😂. Might be a method best left to the past. [This not a remake of Hatari!] https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3928-2965548.jpg
If I’m going to do that, they will need to add a drink-holder and a fully stocked bar. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:38:11 AM EST
[#33]
The command of the Sevastopol Nakhimov Military School is evicting cadets from the barracks at night. We are looking for places in all hostels and hotels. This happens in many military units. But they can’t hide, because we have eyes and ears all over the peninsula. The occupiers will either run away or be destroyed. We urge Sevastopol residents to report locations of Russian occupiers. Send information to @Crimean_coordinator |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:41:46 AM EST
[#34]
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Posted: 9/25/2023 12:47:20 AM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#35]
Good weekly summary from Umerov on meetings with partner countries. Especially noteworthy is the Capability Coalition for the future defense forces.
Significant changes are expected by all: Ukrainian society, foreign partners. And most important - our soldiers at the front need them, as this is the key to our victory. - Next - Ramstein meeting. Had a number of substantive meetings with colleagues. As a result, we will receive more support from partners from dozens of countries, which will soon be tangible for our warriors on the battlefield. 1. More weapons, more ammunition, active preparation for winter with partner countries, strengthening of air defense, training of our pilots for F-16. 2. Estonia and Luxembourg - a coalition in the field of IT, communication and cyber security, which will make our offensive more coordinated and effective. 3. Together with colleagues, we agreed the initiative to establish Capability Coalition. Our goal is to prepare the Ukraine's Future Defense Forces. The Ministry has identified five clusters that will receive priority attention: air defense, artillery, aviation, the Navy and armored vehicles. I am grateful to our partners for their efforts that allow us to move forward. - Joined the Ukrainian delegation led by the President during the visit to the USA. Held important meetings in Congress, the Senate, the Pentagon and the White House. The new package of military aid from American allies, in particular air defense equipment, is so well-timed before the winter and possible attacks by the aggressor on the energy infrastructure. - An efficient visit to Canada with the President of Ukraine. I had a meeting with Defense Minister Bill Blair and Chief of Defense Staff General Wayne Eyre. Since the beginning of the russian invasion, Canada has already given us 1.8 billion CAD in military aid. And now Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced the allocation of another 650 million CAD for the purchase of armored and evacuation vehicles over three years. Thanks to this friendly country, which is so familiar to us." facebook.com/rustemumerov.u… |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 1:49:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3926-2965546.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: New before/after satellite photos of BSF HQ. We might be looking at 4 hits instead of 3. That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3926-2965546.jpg Yeah, the lower wing looks like only one hit because only half the roof is gone. The upper left wing (which we saw hit on camera) is gutted. On the upper right wing, the whole roof looks gone. That’s what makes me think they used two SS on that wing, and one on each of the others. I’ve been looking on and off all day, there is still no clarification about Sokolov or casualties in general. The whole thing does smack of unbelievable negligence or inertia. And that will cost them. Solid professional info on Black Sea maritime (grain) traffic. Good signs ahead. Traffic on Ukraine's unilaterally-organized sea route to and from Odesa is beginning to pick up in earnest. The second ship to enter and leave Chornomorsk without Russian permission has arrived at Istanbul, demonstrating the potential of a new near-coastal grain route created and defended by Ukrainian forces. The small Palau-flagged bulker Aroyat transited down the western edge of the Black Sea over the weekend, reaching the Bosporus in the early hours of Sunday morning. The vessel hugged the coast of NATO member states along the way, rarely straying out of their 12-nautical mile territorial sea limits. In a sign of apparent success for Ukrainian security measures, AIS data shows that the ship used the charted deepwater approaches to Odesa. This route took it away from the shoals of Ukraine's coast and closer to the Boyko Towers, a set of oil and gas rigs which had been occupied by the Russian Navy - until their recent recapture by Ukrainian special forces. The route's activity appears to be picking up. On Friday, the bulkers Azara and Ying Hao 01 arrived at the Ukrainian port of Yuzniy to load. The bulker Eneida arrived at Chornomorsk. Shipowner interest in the trade appears well-distributed, with participation by Turkish, Chinese and Panama-domiciled vessel holding companies. Vessel size has also increased: Ying Hao 01 is a 75,000 dwt Panamax, the vessel class used to ship Ukrainian grain to Asia in economical volumes. The first ship to make a trial transit, Resilient Africa (ex name Dafne H), was a 3,000 dwt coastal freighter. To open and maintain this route, Ukraine's military has stepped up pressure on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On Friday, a Ukrainian missile strike hit the fleet's headquarters building in Sevastopol, causing an unknown degree of damage to Russian command and control functions. Last week, Ukraine used UK-built Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a backup command center outside of the city. Earlier this month, missile strikes on the port of Sevastopol destroyed a tank landing ship and a Kilo-class attack submarine in drydock, depriving the Russian Navy of a premier platform for maintaining a naval blockade. Repeated drone boat attacks on Russian patrol vessels in the western and northern Black Sea have had an unknown degree of success, but have succeeded in holding Russian naval vessels at risk far out at sea. No Russian boarding attempts or patrol-vessel sightings have been reported by Ukraine-bound ships since mid-August. The apparent success of the campaign may begin to bring down the cost of insurance for this high-war-risk corridor. A consortium led by Marsh is said to be preparing a package of insurance options to restore a degree of affordability for Ukrainian grain shipping.” Russian naval activity on the Black Sea might be paralyzed right now due to the (possible) near-decapitation of its leadership in Sevastopol. I think we can now safely speculate that this was part of Ukraine’s operational design - to paralyze the BSF at the exact time it needed to act decisively to maintain the de facto blockade. Russia has to act now to maintain their grip on the Black Sea. If maritime traffic stops fearing them (report indicates this is so) then they might as well just retire to the eastern Black Sea and focus on resupplying Crimea. If they don’t decide soon it will be decided for them. I think Putin and whatever is left of the BSF command understand this, and my speculation is that we’ll see an attempt soon to reassert power in the western Black Sea. Question is, do they want to keep it soft (i.e. boarding via helicopter) or are they ready to go hard? Subs are probably their most effective hard power play, but they will need to catch a merchant ship outside of NATO territorial waters. So, probably the northwestern black sea when ships have to leave Romanian waters. Ukraine has some options even against subs. Pick the most likely flank avenue of approach to ships leaving Romanian waters and mine it. Put Brimstones on the Boyko towers. Move a Patriot to Odessa to brush back Russian CAP, then run a fighter sweep against Russian helos. Lots of possibilities. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:09:04 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Yeah, the lower wing looks like only one hit because only half the roof is gone. The upper left wing (which we saw hit on camera) is gutted. On the upper right wing, the whole roof looks gone. That’s what makes me think they used two SS on that wing, and one on each of the others. I’ve been looking on and off all day, there is still no clarification about Sokolov or casualties in general. The whole thing does smack of unbelievable negligence or inertia. And that will cost them. Solid professional info on Black Sea maritime (grain) traffic. Good signs ahead. Russian naval activity on the Black Sea might be paralyzed right now due to the (possible) near-decapitation of its leadership in Sevastopol. I think we can now safely speculate that this was part of Ukraine’s operational design - to paralyze the BSF at the exact time it needed to act decisively to maintain the de facto blockade. Russia has to act now to maintain their grip on the Black Sea. If maritime traffic stops fearing them (report indicates this is so) then they might as well just retire to the eastern Black Sea and focus on resupplying Crimea. If they don’t decide soon it will be decided for them. I think Putin and whatever is left of the BSF command understand this, and my speculation is that we’ll see an attempt soon to reassert power in the western Black Sea. Question is, do they want to keep it soft (i.e. boarding via helicopter) or are they ready to go hard? Subs are probably their most effective hard power play, but they will need to catch a merchant ship outside of NATO territorial waters. So, probably the northwestern black sea when ships have to leave Romanian waters. Ukraine has some options even against subs. Pick the most likely flank avenue of approach to ships leaving Romanian waters and mine it. Put Brimstones on the Boyko towers. Move a Patriot to Odessa to brush back Russian CAP, then run a fighter sweep against Russian helos. Lots of possibilities. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: New before/after satellite photos of BSF HQ. We might be looking at 4 hits instead of 3. That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3926-2965546.jpg Yeah, the lower wing looks like only one hit because only half the roof is gone. The upper left wing (which we saw hit on camera) is gutted. On the upper right wing, the whole roof looks gone. That’s what makes me think they used two SS on that wing, and one on each of the others. I’ve been looking on and off all day, there is still no clarification about Sokolov or casualties in general. The whole thing does smack of unbelievable negligence or inertia. And that will cost them. Solid professional info on Black Sea maritime (grain) traffic. Good signs ahead. Traffic on Ukraine's unilaterally-organized sea route to and from Odesa is beginning to pick up in earnest. The second ship to enter and leave Chornomorsk without Russian permission has arrived at Istanbul, demonstrating the potential of a new near-coastal grain route created and defended by Ukrainian forces. The small Palau-flagged bulker Aroyat transited down the western edge of the Black Sea over the weekend, reaching the Bosporus in the early hours of Sunday morning. The vessel hugged the coast of NATO member states along the way, rarely straying out of their 12-nautical mile territorial sea limits. In a sign of apparent success for Ukrainian security measures, AIS data shows that the ship used the charted deepwater approaches to Odesa. This route took it away from the shoals of Ukraine's coast and closer to the Boyko Towers, a set of oil and gas rigs which had been occupied by the Russian Navy - until their recent recapture by Ukrainian special forces. The route's activity appears to be picking up. On Friday, the bulkers Azara and Ying Hao 01 arrived at the Ukrainian port of Yuzniy to load. The bulker Eneida arrived at Chornomorsk. Shipowner interest in the trade appears well-distributed, with participation by Turkish, Chinese and Panama-domiciled vessel holding companies. Vessel size has also increased: Ying Hao 01 is a 75,000 dwt Panamax, the vessel class used to ship Ukrainian grain to Asia in economical volumes. The first ship to make a trial transit, Resilient Africa (ex name Dafne H), was a 3,000 dwt coastal freighter. To open and maintain this route, Ukraine's military has stepped up pressure on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On Friday, a Ukrainian missile strike hit the fleet's headquarters building in Sevastopol, causing an unknown degree of damage to Russian command and control functions. Last week, Ukraine used UK-built Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a backup command center outside of the city. Earlier this month, missile strikes on the port of Sevastopol destroyed a tank landing ship and a Kilo-class attack submarine in drydock, depriving the Russian Navy of a premier platform for maintaining a naval blockade. Repeated drone boat attacks on Russian patrol vessels in the western and northern Black Sea have had an unknown degree of success, but have succeeded in holding Russian naval vessels at risk far out at sea. No Russian boarding attempts or patrol-vessel sightings have been reported by Ukraine-bound ships since mid-August. The apparent success of the campaign may begin to bring down the cost of insurance for this high-war-risk corridor. A consortium led by Marsh is said to be preparing a package of insurance options to restore a degree of affordability for Ukrainian grain shipping.” Russian naval activity on the Black Sea might be paralyzed right now due to the (possible) near-decapitation of its leadership in Sevastopol. I think we can now safely speculate that this was part of Ukraine’s operational design - to paralyze the BSF at the exact time it needed to act decisively to maintain the de facto blockade. Russia has to act now to maintain their grip on the Black Sea. If maritime traffic stops fearing them (report indicates this is so) then they might as well just retire to the eastern Black Sea and focus on resupplying Crimea. If they don’t decide soon it will be decided for them. I think Putin and whatever is left of the BSF command understand this, and my speculation is that we’ll see an attempt soon to reassert power in the western Black Sea. Question is, do they want to keep it soft (i.e. boarding via helicopter) or are they ready to go hard? Subs are probably their most effective hard power play, but they will need to catch a merchant ship outside of NATO territorial waters. So, probably the northwestern black sea when ships have to leave Romanian waters. Ukraine has some options even against subs. Pick the most likely flank avenue of approach to ships leaving Romanian waters and mine it. Put Brimstones on the Boyko towers. Move a Patriot to Odessa to brush back Russian CAP, then run a fighter sweep against Russian helos. Lots of possibilities. Nice update. I didn’t realize that recently liberated oil platform Boyko Towers played a role in monitoring it even threatening grain shipments. That was a significant recapture. I wonder if Russia’s tyranny over the BS is over? The Montreau treaty was heavily favorable to Soviet Union while the US was being isolationist. I’m sure Turkey is not happy with Russia bullying commerce. And finally I think NATO is on the cusp of intervening if attacks are made in member nation waters. Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea have exposed the West’s ludicrous fear of ESCALATION ☢️ and Russia’s vacuous threats. Soon would be a good time for all parties to form a new treaty excluding Russia for the free navigation of the Sea in accord with international laws like most other oceans and seas. With NATO and the seaboard members taking active enforcement roles. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:10:07 AM EST
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#38]
Resilient Africa, Ex Dafne. 3000T. Made the trip. Tiny tramp steamer by modern standards.
Aroyat. 18000T. Made the trip, unloading in Egypt. Azara. 14000T. Loading in Ukraine. Ying Hao 01. 75000T. Loading in Ukraine. Not mentioned in the article but now showing up on VesselFinder as destination Ukraine. Impossible to say if their ETAs will hold up of if they decide to risk it. But quite a number of ships are heading for Ukrainian ports. Some are anchored at the edge of Romanian territorial waters fairly close to Snake island. To Chornomorsk: Ida To Reni: Mavka Servia FJ Elena Bakan To Izmail: all these are NOMINALLY due in Ukraine the next 4 days Lucky Oris Sofi NS Thor Sahin 4 Artey Emken NYT article on the same subject |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:13:56 AM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Yes it would be nice if we can do two things at once. Or conceive of Ukraine doing two things at once that already are doing. They already have a few jets. They are getting a few dozen F-16 from Europe. I am not proposing some alien technology transfer. Ukraine is flying and maintaining ancient MiG-29 and Su24s. By spring they will be trained and operating and maintaining 40+ European supplied F-16. The US has more surplus F-16 than any European country yet we provide ZERO. There is no rational excuse. Ukraine has more pilots ready to fly than they have aircraft. Ready room chairs have proven ineffective launch platforms. All the while Ukraine ALSO launches missile attacks some air launched and others land launched (S-200, Neptun). And they are building new missiles and long range drones. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. To me this war is proving the importance of ground launched, surface to surface missiles with a variety of seekers and warheads. Systems that are mobile, easily programmable, serviceable and require little training. I'm all for F-16s to Ukraine, but keeping them going will consume a lot of resources. Yes it would be nice if we can do two things at once. Or conceive of Ukraine doing two things at once that already are doing. They already have a few jets. They are getting a few dozen F-16 from Europe. I am not proposing some alien technology transfer. Ukraine is flying and maintaining ancient MiG-29 and Su24s. By spring they will be trained and operating and maintaining 40+ European supplied F-16. The US has more surplus F-16 than any European country yet we provide ZERO. There is no rational excuse. Ukraine has more pilots ready to fly than they have aircraft. Ready room chairs have proven ineffective launch platforms. All the while Ukraine ALSO launches missile attacks some air launched and others land launched (S-200, Neptun). And they are building new missiles and long range drones. Agree but it's clear this administration and NATO at large see the F-16s as a post war project when you consider the continued delays. I admire Ukraine's home grown effort on the missile front but they need our excess Tomahawks to continue to target behind the frontlines and pressure Russian forces from the rear. Ukraine should be delivering twice the missiles back a night than Russia. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:16:59 AM EST
[#40]
Oh boy! October is going to be National Meat Cube Month. Unbelievable disassociation with reality. Shoigu may not be long for this world.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, citing an insider source in the Kremlin, claim that the Russian President gave Shoigu a month to improve the situation on the front line, stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive and return the initiative to Russian troops. The report suggests that Russian military commanders may order continuous counterattacks to force the Ukrainian counteroffensive to reach a climax, even at high cost to Russian military capabilities. “Putin and the Kremlin view Russian defensive operations as a major victory on the battlefield, and constant Russian counterattacks allow the Kremlin to call these operations individual victories against the backdrop of a general lack of Russian success on the battlefield elsewhere,” ISW details. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:23:59 AM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: Agree but it's clear this administration and NATO at large see the F-16s as a post war project when you consider the continued delays. I admire Ukraine's home grown effort on the missile front but they need our excess Tomahawks to continue to target behind the frontlines and pressure Russian forces from the rear. Ukraine should be delivering twice the missiles back a night than Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: They only have a very few Su-24 that can launch Storm Shadow/SCALP/Taurus. Even a few 4th Gen jets would double their capability. It would be nice for them to get 100 to really keep Russians on their toes and more easily attack suddenly anywhere along the 900 mile front. But even 6 would a big boost. I don't understand the hand wringing over how old they are. The MiG-29s and handful of Su-24 they currently are ancient as well. I wager in worse condition than any operable F16 we have. For fuck sake let them get the last 100 hours out of them. It's like with the tanks. No. Our pretty tanks and jets likely won't last very long. A year at most. Maybe a month. It is a damn dogfight with high losses. THAT is exactly why we should send 100 or 200. Not 31 or 0. Gee thx for the tip. It does: - Allows more than two aircraft to launch missiles at a time (four total missiles) - Allows aircraft and missiles to be more widely distributed and launch with less warning than flying the one or two Su-24 several hundred miles. - provides replacements for those two Su-24 as they are likely to wear out soon. If you were Ukraine with 100 cruise missiles left would you be happy with 2 launch aircraft or want more? Would you want a fighter capable of carrying AiM-120s? I am amazed at the variety of excuses people come up with why we should not give one F16 to Ukraine. Too old. Not old enough. Don't have hundreds to spare. It won't win the war anyway. It takes a long time to train. They don't have runways fit for this delicate jewel. It isn't rocket surgery. Any number of almost ANY jet is better than ZERO. To me this war is proving the importance of ground launched, surface to surface missiles with a variety of seekers and warheads. Systems that are mobile, easily programmable, serviceable and require little training. I'm all for F-16s to Ukraine, but keeping them going will consume a lot of resources. Yes it would be nice if we can do two things at once. Or conceive of Ukraine doing two things at once that already are doing. They already have a few jets. They are getting a few dozen F-16 from Europe. I am not proposing some alien technology transfer. Ukraine is flying and maintaining ancient MiG-29 and Su24s. By spring they will be trained and operating and maintaining 40+ European supplied F-16. The US has more surplus F-16 than any European country yet we provide ZERO. There is no rational excuse. Ukraine has more pilots ready to fly than they have aircraft. Ready room chairs have proven ineffective launch platforms. All the while Ukraine ALSO launches missile attacks some air launched and others land launched (S-200, Neptun). And they are building new missiles and long range drones. Agree but it's clear this administration and NATO at large see the F-16s as a post war project when you consider the continued delays. I admire Ukraine's home grown effort on the missile front but they need our excess Tomahawks to continue to target behind the frontlines and pressure Russian forces from the rear. Ukraine should be delivering twice the missiles back a night than Russia. Totally agree on Tomahawks! Biden seems tunnel visioned on air defense. Very passive. Ukraine was the space program for Russia. I hope they fully revive their ballistic and cruise missile manufacturing and become self sufficient for long range fires. |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:27:49 AM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:29:08 AM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Nice update. I didn’t realize that recently liberated oil platform Boyko Towers played a role in monitoring it even threatening grain shipments. That was a significant recapture. I wonder if Russia’s tyranny over the BS is over? The Montreau treaty was heavily favorable to Soviet Union while the US was being isolationist. I’m sure Turkey is not happy with Russia bullying commerce. And finally I think NATO is on the cusp of intervening if attacks are made in member nation waters. Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea have exposed the West’s ludicrous fear of ESCALATION ☢️ and Russia’s vacuous threats. Soon would be a good time for all parties to form a new treaty excluding Russia for the free navigation of the Sea in accord with international laws like most other oceans and seas. With NATO and the seaboard members taking active enforcement roles. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: New before/after satellite photos of BSF HQ. We might be looking at 4 hits instead of 3. That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3926-2965546.jpg Yeah, the lower wing looks like only one hit because only half the roof is gone. The upper left wing (which we saw hit on camera) is gutted. On the upper right wing, the whole roof looks gone. That’s what makes me think they used two SS on that wing, and one on each of the others. I’ve been looking on and off all day, there is still no clarification about Sokolov or casualties in general. The whole thing does smack of unbelievable negligence or inertia. And that will cost them. Solid professional info on Black Sea maritime (grain) traffic. Good signs ahead. Traffic on Ukraine's unilaterally-organized sea route to and from Odesa is beginning to pick up in earnest. The second ship to enter and leave Chornomorsk without Russian permission has arrived at Istanbul, demonstrating the potential of a new near-coastal grain route created and defended by Ukrainian forces. The small Palau-flagged bulker Aroyat transited down the western edge of the Black Sea over the weekend, reaching the Bosporus in the early hours of Sunday morning. The vessel hugged the coast of NATO member states along the way, rarely straying out of their 12-nautical mile territorial sea limits. In a sign of apparent success for Ukrainian security measures, AIS data shows that the ship used the charted deepwater approaches to Odesa. This route took it away from the shoals of Ukraine's coast and closer to the Boyko Towers, a set of oil and gas rigs which had been occupied by the Russian Navy - until their recent recapture by Ukrainian special forces. The route's activity appears to be picking up. On Friday, the bulkers Azara and Ying Hao 01 arrived at the Ukrainian port of Yuzniy to load. The bulker Eneida arrived at Chornomorsk. Shipowner interest in the trade appears well-distributed, with participation by Turkish, Chinese and Panama-domiciled vessel holding companies. Vessel size has also increased: Ying Hao 01 is a 75,000 dwt Panamax, the vessel class used to ship Ukrainian grain to Asia in economical volumes. The first ship to make a trial transit, Resilient Africa (ex name Dafne H), was a 3,000 dwt coastal freighter. To open and maintain this route, Ukraine's military has stepped up pressure on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On Friday, a Ukrainian missile strike hit the fleet's headquarters building in Sevastopol, causing an unknown degree of damage to Russian command and control functions. Last week, Ukraine used UK-built Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a backup command center outside of the city. Earlier this month, missile strikes on the port of Sevastopol destroyed a tank landing ship and a Kilo-class attack submarine in drydock, depriving the Russian Navy of a premier platform for maintaining a naval blockade. Repeated drone boat attacks on Russian patrol vessels in the western and northern Black Sea have had an unknown degree of success, but have succeeded in holding Russian naval vessels at risk far out at sea. No Russian boarding attempts or patrol-vessel sightings have been reported by Ukraine-bound ships since mid-August. The apparent success of the campaign may begin to bring down the cost of insurance for this high-war-risk corridor. A consortium led by Marsh is said to be preparing a package of insurance options to restore a degree of affordability for Ukrainian grain shipping.” Russian naval activity on the Black Sea might be paralyzed right now due to the (possible) near-decapitation of its leadership in Sevastopol. I think we can now safely speculate that this was part of Ukraine’s operational design - to paralyze the BSF at the exact time it needed to act decisively to maintain the de facto blockade. Russia has to act now to maintain their grip on the Black Sea. If maritime traffic stops fearing them (report indicates this is so) then they might as well just retire to the eastern Black Sea and focus on resupplying Crimea. If they don’t decide soon it will be decided for them. I think Putin and whatever is left of the BSF command understand this, and my speculation is that we’ll see an attempt soon to reassert power in the western Black Sea. Question is, do they want to keep it soft (i.e. boarding via helicopter) or are they ready to go hard? Subs are probably their most effective hard power play, but they will need to catch a merchant ship outside of NATO territorial waters. So, probably the northwestern black sea when ships have to leave Romanian waters. Ukraine has some options even against subs. Pick the most likely flank avenue of approach to ships leaving Romanian waters and mine it. Put Brimstones on the Boyko towers. Move a Patriot to Odessa to brush back Russian CAP, then run a fighter sweep against Russian helos. Lots of possibilities. Nice update. I didn’t realize that recently liberated oil platform Boyko Towers played a role in monitoring it even threatening grain shipments. That was a significant recapture. I wonder if Russia’s tyranny over the BS is over? The Montreau treaty was heavily favorable to Soviet Union while the US was being isolationist. I’m sure Turkey is not happy with Russia bullying commerce. And finally I think NATO is on the cusp of intervening if attacks are made in member nation waters. Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea have exposed the West’s ludicrous fear of ESCALATION ☢️ and Russia’s vacuous threats. Soon would be a good time for all parties to form a new treaty excluding Russia for the free navigation of the Sea in accord with international laws like most other oceans and seas. With NATO and the seaboard members taking active enforcement roles. I posted an article a while back, basically that NATO nations have already reached the conclusion that they allowed Russia too free a hand on the Black Sea for too long, and that was going to change. Some reading below: https://cepa.org/article/ending-russias-black-sea-stranglehold/ https://centerformaritimestrategy.org/publications/reflecting-on-one-year-of-war-the-decisive-element-of-black-sea-strategy/ https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/russias-militarization-of-the-black-sea-implications-for-the-united-states-and-nato/ |
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:31:36 AM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#44]
Over 18 hours flight delays on commercial airlines due to the shutdown of Moscow area airports day after day and in this case lack of spare parts. Do you really need all those parts on a plane? Really? 😂
18 hours of Russian customer service and hospitality!!! 😂😂😂. VIDEO but instead of relaxing at the resort, they spent about 18 hours in the waiting room. Russians in Thailand, by the way, are also waiting for this plane to return home. According to Russian Telegram channels, during the entire waiting period passengers were not provided with food and water, children slept on tables and the floor. After the flight was postponed, passengers were asked to find hotels themselves and their luggage was unloaded. There will be more similar situations in Russia, since due to sanctions , foreign aircraft are not serviced by certified specialists. And to repair the sides, they use non-original or worn-out spare parts. 
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Posted: 9/25/2023 2:32:36 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I posted an article a while back, basically that NATO nations have already reached the conclusion that they allowed Russia too free a hand on the Black Sea for too long, and that was going to change. Some reading below: https://cepa.org/article/ending-russias-black-sea-stranglehold/ https://centerformaritimestrategy.org/publications/reflecting-on-one-year-of-war-the-decisive-element-of-black-sea-strategy/ https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/russias-militarization-of-the-black-sea-implications-for-the-united-states-and-nato/ Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Capta: New before/after satellite photos of BSF HQ. We might be looking at 4 hits instead of 3. That is the clearest imagery yet released. Entire U shaped building looks gutted. My phone capture https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_3926-2965546.jpg Yeah, the lower wing looks like only one hit because only half the roof is gone. The upper left wing (which we saw hit on camera) is gutted. On the upper right wing, the whole roof looks gone. That’s what makes me think they used two SS on that wing, and one on each of the others. I’ve been looking on and off all day, there is still no clarification about Sokolov or casualties in general. The whole thing does smack of unbelievable negligence or inertia. And that will cost them. Solid professional info on Black Sea maritime (grain) traffic. Good signs ahead. Traffic on Ukraine's unilaterally-organized sea route to and from Odesa is beginning to pick up in earnest. The second ship to enter and leave Chornomorsk without Russian permission has arrived at Istanbul, demonstrating the potential of a new near-coastal grain route created and defended by Ukrainian forces. The small Palau-flagged bulker Aroyat transited down the western edge of the Black Sea over the weekend, reaching the Bosporus in the early hours of Sunday morning. The vessel hugged the coast of NATO member states along the way, rarely straying out of their 12-nautical mile terri |
