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Posted: 10/8/2004 3:53:43 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 3:57:11 AM EST
This stuff can be interesting, but with the wide variety of poll results, I avoid getting into a tizzy.

The 2 November poll is the one that counts.
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 3:57:44 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 4:02:56 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 4:13:04 AM EST
Hiram, I owe you a beer.

You may have seen my thread this morning. I'm still fuming....
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 4:17:32 AM EST
Hiram-

I didn't mean to sound like I was critical of these posts. Sorry if it came out like that.

The criticism was aimed at the polls.

Regards...
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 4:20:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm.



How many of those states (ECV-wise) are leaning Bush, even if by less than 4%?
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 6:00:26 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm



It seems to me from wathching this guys site that it takes a day for him to figure in all of the polls. I think you might see Rasmussen show up tomorrow. If not then the guy is crunching numbers to appease DU. I know that DU is sending him a ton of email beating him up cuz the map has shown Bush ahead for so long.

Some of the polls I have seen have Bush up by 9 in Ohio, 7-9 in Florida and 7 in Wisconcin.
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 6:05:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By Zaphod:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Rassmussens count is Bush 240 Kerry 169 with a whole lot of toss-ups. Rasmussed doesn't assign a state to a candidate without a 4-5 point lead, so I'll take those as better numbers, as well as consistant as they are coming out of one firm.



How many of those states (ECV-wise) are leaning Bush, even if by less than 4%?



According to Rasmussen, of the 11 states he has as toss ups, Bush is leading in 5, Kerry in 2, and 4 are dead even. These 5 states in which Bush has a lead are worth 51 electoral vote, which would put him at 291.

You should always keep in mind that Rasmussen has a know tendency to underestimate the Republican share by a view percentage points.

The political futures markets have Bush still maintaining a decent lead. Iowa Electronic Market has Bush futures at $.56, and Intrade has them at $.59.
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 6:09:54 AM EST
i'm getting very nervous.

...somebody hold me
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 6:12:44 AM EST
Crap! Even my magic eight ball isn't helping.

Link Posted: 10/8/2004 6:15:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.png

Kerry 280 Bush 239

Considering Rasmussen just released his latest electoral chart yesterday, first in a week, and showed a Bush surge... I'm going to shake my head at this latest map that ignored several major polls out yesterday that put Ohio in the Bush column, and Wisconsin is now identified at Kerry by a polling firm called Lake Snell Perry which has a (D) after its name... Every major poll I've seen puts Wisconsin in the Bush column... Arkansas... tied? Well only if you trust Zogby.

Make of it what you will... but this left-leaning website has finally showed its true colors and buckled to pressure from Dems who cried the map was too red.



KILL THE MESSENGER!...KILL THE MESSENGER!
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 7:19:20 AM EST
I see he's pushing the "Bush had a radio receiver taped to his back" theory... does anyone know whether or not he gave equal treatment to Kerry's "mystery object being pulled out of pocket?"

--Mike
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 9:31:07 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 9:49:20 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/8/2004 9:50:47 AM EST by AClay47]
Zogby is an Arab, so his polling is in question, so far as I'm concerned. I think he missed the 2000 Presidential election by 2-3%?

I know that sounds prejudiced, by all the 911 hijackers were Arab, Usama is one, as are all the major players in the Terror movement (outside Chechnya, and there are Arabs there, too).
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 10:12:02 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 10:31:00 AM EST

Originally Posted By mcaswell:
I see he's pushing the "Bush had a radio receiver taped to his back" theory... does anyone know whether or not he gave equal treatment to Kerry's "mystery object being pulled out of pocket?"

--Mike



I sent the guy an explanation of the body armor with a big pic of the president and his "bulge". Hopefully he'll figure it out now.
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 11:12:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 12:27:50 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Looks like Electoral Vote fixed their hacked projections... looks like the numbers are in line with what I've predicted as the final shake-out.

Kerry 203 Bush 320



??? Still looks like they're showing Kerry ahead.

--Mike
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 1:06:53 PM EST
Those new polls in the battleground states and others are from no-name polling groups. And yet, on MSNBC, www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6090776/

they have him AHEAD in many state polls. Make up your own mind as to the validity of this asshat's electoral map.
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 2:36:58 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 2:55:51 PM EST

Originally Posted By Brohawk:
The 2 November poll is the one that counts.



I don't think this election will be over on the 2nd...if Skerry loses, I don't think he will condede right away...
Link Posted: 10/8/2004 3:33:19 PM EST

Originally Posted By mcaswell:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Looks like Electoral Vote fixed their hacked projections... looks like the numbers are in line with what I've predicted as the final shake-out.

Kerry 203 Bush 320



??? Still looks like they're showing Kerry ahead.

--Mike



320 is greater than 230.
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