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Posted: 10/16/2004 5:06:21 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:09:58 AM EST
GWB is trending upwards....


45 my friend...45


SGatr15
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:15:11 AM EST
In this scenario, Bush won't have enough electoral votes to win, so the election will go to Congress. And Then Bush will dominate. This scenario would be cool because the liberals would be so upset to find out their votes don't count once again.

Look up the Massachussets margin and compare it to Gore's in 2000. Talk about a vote of no-confidence. More Massachussets people voted for Gore than plan to vote for sKerry.

Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:16:31 AM EST
Ya sure could detect the glee in the hostweenies post today. Reads as though he's looking forward to a court fight in the aftermath.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:17:41 AM EST
I'm not worried. Florida will go for Bush I am sure of that.

I think you will see big movement in the polls the last ten days before the election. Let Stolen Honor sink in for a few days.

When do you suppose Rove is going to come out with his one or two surprises??

I think Stolen Honor was one, so what could be the other??

It's going to be a long two and a half weeks.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:18:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
45 my friend...45


SGatr15






yeah right
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:37:43 AM EST
Come on Iowa, didn't you hear Kerry hates corn?

And a message for New Hampshire--Kerry doesn't eat maple syrup. He thinks it's too "ethnic".

GunLvr
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:38:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/16/2004 5:40:08 AM EST by Dog1]

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
GWB is trending upwards....


45 my friend...45


SGatr15




Ha ha ha...you off the meds again....?

I'll bet you $100 bucks that he will not take 45..he will not even get to 38.......
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:38:12 AM EST
I don't know if this has been posted before but it's kind of a fun little tool. It's the electoral Calculator. I come up with two scenarios

Bush 299 Kerry 239 or
Bush 290 Kerry 248

It would be interesting to see what SGatr15 comes up with when giving 45 states to Bush.


Electoral Calculator
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:39:11 AM EST
Kerry is in serious self distruct mode
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:44:59 AM EST
Most of the polls showing Kerry ahead in states that you ask "WTF?" are by Strategic Vision and American Research Group - these are NOT good polling groups and some are a bit liberal leaning.

Note, however, that states where Kerry is tied or barely ahead that he SHOULD be very much ahead are by Zogby and Gallup.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 5:56:18 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:04:39 AM EST
I grew up in Iowa and now I live in Mn. I'm so ashamed.

Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:09:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By spm681:
I don't know if this has been posted before but it's kind of a fun little tool. It's the electoral Calculator. I come up with two scenarios

Bush 299 Kerry 239 or
Bush 290 Kerry 248

It would be interesting to see what SGatr15 comes up with when giving 45 states to Bush.


Electoral Calculator



I got 283 to 255. I gues you gave Iowa to Bush. I wanted to be a spoil-sport, so I threw it to Kerry.
Bush will win Florida. If he can win EITHER PA or OH, we win.

Kerry has to take Florida. Even if he wins BOTH PA and OH (which isn't very likely since Bush is up in OH), Kerry would still need IA to win. I just don't see us losing this one.
tony
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:10:25 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:21:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By 0351-ROCKETS:
I grew up in Iowa and now I live in Mn. I'm so ashamed.



Don't be so hard on yourself man, go get a MN CCW licence and you'll feel better.
While your at it pick up a new pistol to boot. If the wife give you any crap about the Pistol,
just tell her the guys on the internet said it was ok. She will understand, I promise.

Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:32:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By SS109:
In this scenario, Bush won't have enough electoral votes to win, so the election will go to Congress. And Then Bush will dominate. This scenario would be cool because the liberals would be so upset to find out their votes don't count once again.


Not necessarily... the 257 – 243 score doesn't appear to include EVs of states that are considered "tied." In other words, SOMEONE is going to win Florida and Iowa (ignoring for a moment that if it's close, lawsuits will pour in contesting the results).

Anyway, the scenario in which the decision would go to Congress is if it is an exact tie. An article yesterday brought up the possibility of us having a Bush/Edwards or Kerry/Cheney administration, depending on what the election does to the makeup of Congress (since the president would be chosen by the House, and the VP would be chosen by the Senate).

--Mike
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:50:06 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:54:19 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:55:56 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 6:59:23 AM EST
I hope the new Swift Boat ads do to those lines the same thing they did the first time around...
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:07:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By dpmmn:
Kerry is in serious self distruct mode



Not to bust your chops, but we've been saying that since forever, and he's still threatening.

Am I missing something?
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:13:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By spm681:
I don't know if this has been posted before but it's kind of a fun little tool. It's the electoral Calculator. I come up with two scenarios

Bush 299 Kerry 239 or
Bush 290 Kerry 248

It would be interesting to see what SGatr15 comes up with when giving 45 states to Bush.


Electoral Calculator




NY,VT,MA,RI and maybe cal will go to Kerry for 105 electorial votes.

GWB gets the rest.


SGtar15
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:15:48 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/16/2004 7:21:27 AM EST by Zaphod]
Never mind.....

Read the friggin' POST, stupid!
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:15:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:17:59 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/16/2004 7:22:58 AM EST by Zaphod]
Now THIS is encouraging!

Polls

Take a look at Newsweek! If both their polls are accurate, talk about a SWING!

It's probably not that big, but the TREND is!


ETA: Wow. Look at the trend of who won polls vs. who lost. Bush is cleaning house. If that holds or improves (as it should as the debate glow dies down and the Swifties resume fire), then maybe, just maybe, Sgt will be right!

ETAA: I'm just not with it today. This cold is killing me. The data I posted is the data that generated HeavyMetal's graphs. Duh....
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:25:45 AM EST

Originally Posted By SS109:
In this scenario, Bush won't have enough electoral votes to win, so the election will go to Congress. And Then Bush will dominate. This scenario would be cool because the liberals would be so upset to find out their votes don't count once again.

Look up the Massachussets margin and compare it to Gore's in 2000. Talk about a vote of no-confidence. More Massachussets people voted for Gore than plan to vote for sKerry.


that scenario shows ties though, someone will win the electoral college. and that person will be President George W Bush with at least 300 EVs
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 8:15:12 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:

Originally Posted By spm681:
I don't know if this has been posted before but it's kind of a fun little tool. It's the electoral Calculator. I come up with two scenarios

Bush 299 Kerry 239 or
Bush 290 Kerry 248

It would be interesting to see what SGatr15 comes up with when giving 45 states to Bush.


Electoral Calculator




NY,VT,MA,RI and maybe cal will go to Kerry for 105 electorial votes.

GWB gets the rest.


SGtar15



Ha ha ha ha ha...maybe in SGtar15's action figure world....not in the real one...

You really should double check your medication doseage and up it a tad...
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 8:19:30 AM EST
... I'm certain Bush will win this election

... It's the hoards of Kerry lawyers that will fuck up the legitimate concession afterward
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 8:23:44 AM EST
DE turning light blue?

Also whats up with CA and NJ?

Funny that the states that Kerry takes for grant doesn't look like "granted" anymore.


But then also we are losing in states where R is supposed to be getting more support...
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 8:48:38 AM EST
polling means shit

Voter turnout is the key

if the minorities get out and vote Bush could be in trouble.
Answering ur phone and being polled or any other way they poll is
alot easier than actually getting out to vote.

If there is not a big turnout in Fl, Mi, Pa, Oh Bush wins in a land slide
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 9:33:43 AM EST
The only change I would make is switch Illinois with Cal.


Sgtar15


PS Either way...this WILL be a landslide.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 9:36:51 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 12:12:40 PM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
The only change I would make is switch Illinois with Cal.


Sgtar15


PS Either way...this WILL be a landslide.



Again...I'll bet you $100 that Bush will not take 45 states.....and it will not be a landslide...not even close to a landslide..

Link Posted: 10/16/2004 12:19:12 PM EST
"Kerry did not energize his base."
That is what I want to hear on November 3rd.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 12:32:18 PM EST
Didn't that eloectoral vote site used to have a function that tracked the trends and then projected the outcome, as opposed to simply showing the most recent polling data? I remember clicking it, and it always had Bush over 300. But the guy who ran the site said b/c of the methodology, it really wouldn't men much until October. Well, now its October, and I guess he took it off the site.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 12:41:43 PM EST
what's up with Nevada?
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 12:47:12 PM EST

Originally Posted By leelaw:
what's up with Nevada?



No shit! I hate to see this state tainted with blue. It's the Kalifornication factor. 75% of the state's population is in Clark County (Las Vegas) and the majority of those people are recent immigrants (or is it escapees?) from the PRK.

Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:01:44 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:21:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By GLOCKshooter:
Didn't that eloectoral vote site used to have a function that tracked the trends and then projected the outcome, as opposed to simply showing the most recent polling data? I remember clicking it, and it always had Bush over 300. But the guy who ran the site said b/c of the methodology, it really wouldn't men much until October. Well, now its October, and I guess he took it off the site.



Yeah it did. I'm wondering why he took that info off his site.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:28:39 PM EST
Go Bush.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:44:45 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:49:13 PM EST
Woo Hoo! Ohio has finaly gone pink! errr... Light Red!
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 1:52:40 PM EST
Bush will take Michigan
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 2:19:16 PM EST

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
The graph isn't static and when the site updates, it updates to. Bush has gained overy a point amd a half just today alone since I first posted it.



Holy cow!

KEWL!
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 2:21:40 PM EST
Come on Florida, YOU CAN DO IT!
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 2:45:06 PM EST
What is truly amazing is that CA is light blue at all and not deep dark blue.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 3:09:34 PM EST
More Bush in 2005
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 3:13:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By pighelmet:
Bush will take Michigan



Not if the inner city blacks, rural white trash, Farmers, UAW, Prison Gaurds, and Kroger/Meir employees can hlep it.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 4:40:46 PM EST
Newsweek has released a poll that has Bush up 50% to 44% over Kerry.

I think the comments on Cheneys daughter are starting to erode kerry support.

I think we might see some developments early next week on the Rove suprises.
Link Posted: 10/16/2004 7:21:21 PM EST
Bush will get at least 300 Electoral Votes...GO W!!!
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