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Posted: 8/27/2004 1:57:02 PM EST
I saw a poll a bit earlier on CNN and there has been a dramatic turn-around in the state of Ohio. I saw a poll not more than 1-2 weeks ago where Kerry was ahead by as much as 10 points in Ohio. Now Bush is back ahead by I believe 4-5 points! That's a pretty big swing!

Also, he appeared to be ahead in Missouri by I believe a 46% to 44% margin. Bush won Mizzou in 2000. Therefore it's important to hang on to it.

Also, Bush is ahead in Wisconsin. I can't remember the exact number but I'm pretty sure it's in the 3-5 point range. This was a Gore state in 2000! Getting Wisconsin would be big.

In each of those 3 states, Bush is getting ever so close to that 50% mark that would allow him to breath somewhat easier. If Bush can keep Missouri and Ohio, then add Wisconsin, and get one more battleground state such as Florida, is it likely he will win? I would think so. Plus, from what everyone is saying, Kerry doesn't yet have California in his hip pocket by any means. Arnie will be a speaker at the convention and I'm sure he might be able to drum up a bit of extra support for Bush.

I just hope we can keep the pressure on Kerry and hold in all states that are currently for Bush and make gains in those he that aren't. But things certainly look better now than they did 1-2 weeks ago. I suppose the swiftboat ads have worked. That and Kerry's whining about it all that is. LOL. Man, I hope the convention goes well and it gives us a bit of a boost.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 1:59:54 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:00:16 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 2:04:37 PM EST by Lightning_P38]
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:01:35 PM EST
Looks like it's swingin

www.electoral-vote.com/
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:43:27 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 2:44:45 PM EST by Greenhorn]

Originally Posted By Diss_ipator:
Looks like it's swingin

www.electoral-vote.com/



Interesting. According to that site, the one state that is "exactly tied", Colorado, would make Bush win by 7 votes if it went to him.

EDITED: Oops, for some strange reason I assumed that they were Kerry votes. Bush would be behind by 2 if he won Colorado.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:44:06 PM EST
I hope it swings just enough that I will be able to breath come election day. I can't go through what I went through in 2000 again. LOL. That took 5 years off my life. If it's too close to call, I'm not even gonna watch the coverage that evening.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:51:12 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 2:57:21 PM EST by Greenhorn]

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
I hope it swings just enough that I will be able to breath come election day. I can't go through what I went through in 2000 again. LOL. That took 5 years off my life. If it's too close to call, I'm not even gonna watch the coverage that evening.



If Kerry loses and demands a recount and involves the supreme court . . .
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 2:56:44 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 3:00:58 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 3:14:54 PM EST
Unfortunately, I find those polls a bit hard to believe and a couple hours ago saw them report this on CNN, when I was flipping channels. The thing about the polls, is that all three have results that appear to be pretty consistent, so who knows?
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 3:33:16 PM EST
It won't be over till they drive stake through cry babies heart.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 5:26:57 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 5:27:59 PM EST by raven]
This site lists multiple polls and takes averages, as well as state-by-state polls. Bush is leading in every single one, EXCEPT for FoxNews's national poll.

www.realclearpolitics.com

DU is not pleased

lancdem (1000+ posts) Fri Aug-27-04 12:55 PM
Original message
Now I'm really depressed about Kerry's chances



For days, I've been figuring he had a strategy that was working, but I've been checking the state polls today, and they are not good. Look at http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

Bush is now ahead in electoral votes for the first time in months, and some of the up-for-grabs states are now leaning his way, including blue states such as Wisconsin and Iowa. He's even gaining ground in Pennsylvania, where Kerry was leading by a decent margin for a couple months. And Bush is entering his convention, so it's only going to get worse. I'm sure the Kerry internal polls are showing it, too.

I'm probably overreacting, but I'm so pissed the Swift Boat smear worked I could scream. Kerry had momentum, and now it's gone, all because of a Rove-engineered lie. I don't mean to bring everybody down, but I haven't felt this pessimistic and angry for a long time. I know Kerry's a good man with experienced campaign people, but it seems like we Dems get played by Rove over and over. Why can't we ever beat them at their game?

All I can say is, if people fall for such lies and vote for Bush, they get what they deserve.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x678712


Link Posted: 8/27/2004 5:30:22 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 5:31:32 PM EST by BostonTeaParty]
The "poll" I trust most is the one where people put their money where their mouth is: www.tradesports.com.

They show Bush with a 72% chance of winning Colorado, 56% chance of winning Florida, 42% Iowa, 61% Missouri, 59% Nevada, 59% Ohio, 58% West Virginia, and 51% Wisconsin. Overall, they give Bush a 55% chance of winning the election.

I quote percentage chances above, but that's not technically correct. They are actually the current market price for a contract on whether Bush will win that state or not. If Bush wins, the contract pays $100; if Bush loses, the contract pays nothing. So, for example, the current price for Colorado is $72 for the chance at getting $100 if Bush wins that state.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 5:31:36 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 5:41:24 PM EST by imposter]
Another electoral college site worth looking at: www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html. But it has not been updated since the 22nd.

Others:
www.tripias.com/state/
www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

It looks like it is going to be close.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 5:34:39 PM EST
Dear God,
all I ask is, four more years.
Thank you.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 5:56:45 PM EST
Bush more or less needs to win all the states he won last time. Ohio is absolutely critical. Very hard to win without Ohio. However, because of reapportionment electoral votes have been added to states like AZ and GA and NC, so Bush would not need NH or WV this time.

I think he has a good shot at Wisconsin, mostly because the state is being run by a really terrible Democrat governor. New Mexico is in play enough that Kerry is spending a lot of time there, and I noticed Kerry was campaigning in Kalifornistan today. Why?????

GunLvr
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 6:05:09 PM EST

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
I hope it swings just enough that I will be able to breath come election day. I can't go through what I went through in 2000 again. LOL. That took 5 years off my life. If it's too close to call, I'm not even gonna watch the coverage that evening.



I'm with you on that one. That was pure hell. Although I did enjoy the "Sore/Looserman" signs that cropped up on Freeper. They even had Word documents that would print out large versions on 8.5" x 11" paper and you could paste them together to make a larger sign. Those were heady days.

Bob

Link Posted: 8/27/2004 6:05:49 PM EST
You know I thought I moved to a state that would vote rationally unlike my previous (Kali) state. I figured I could rest easy on election day.

It don't look like I can rest easy. Fortunatly, I will be here and voting on election day. Hell, if they let me I'll vote often.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 6:09:00 PM EST
Caught CNN again at 10:30 and they are now also showing Pennsylvania swinging around to Bush! I thought Pennsylvania was solidly for Kerry only weeks ago? Was this not also a Gore state in 2000?

Man, I hope this continues. If Bush can win Ohio and Pennsylvania, I'll feel pretty darn good about his chances. That's lots of electoral votes. Now we just gotta wrap up Florida.

Maybe whoever that is here who keeps saying Bush will take 45 states and possibly California has been correct all along? LOL. At least he's been consistent. And if wishful thinking is worth anything, I hope it works out that way. But I'll take whatever I can get.

And for Kerry? For him I wish the rest of his campaign resembles that of Michael Dukakis's in 1988! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 6:55:27 PM EST
All you hear all freeking day in and day out from the media is how the job market is depressed, and that poverty levels are higher accross the board. You'd think unemployment is at 15 1/2 % instead of the 5 1/2% that it is. Never mind the constant negative reporting that they tie to Bush daily with the Iraqi war. It's amazing that President Bush can win any swing states at all under this constant bombardment of the media slant.

DOES ANYBODY REMEMBER WHAT THE POLLS WERE INDICATING BEFORE ELECTION DAY OF 2000? DO I REMEMBER CORRECTLY THAT BUSH WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE HANDILLY BEAT GORE??? MAN, IF ACCORDING TO THE POLLS BUSH WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN BIG BACK IN 2000, THEN NOW I'M GOING TO BE SHITTEN BRICKS WAITING TO SEE HOW A PREDICTED CLOSE RACE WILL TURN OUT!!!! Buy yer stuff quick Sept 14th!
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:15:49 PM EST

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
Maybe whoever that is here who keeps saying Bush will take 45 states and possibly California has been correct all along?



That's Sgtar15.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:16:14 PM EST
Let's face it guys, the media LOVES to make you think it is going to be close - why? Because then more people watch the news, they get more advertising dollars and campaign commercials, etc.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:23:03 PM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:12:22 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 8:15:55 PM EST by imposter]
CNN is now showing Bush with a lead in the EC:

Article

New Mexico sure sticks out. Unfortunately, NV, AZ and TX will be turning blue if we do not get things down there under control.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:28:28 PM EST

Originally Posted By Greenhorn:

Originally Posted By Diss_ipator:
Looks like it's swingin

www.electoral-vote.com/



Interesting. According to that site, the one state that is "exactly tied", Colorado, would make Bush win by 7 votes if it went to him.

EDITED: Oops, for some strange reason I assumed that they were Kerry votes. Bush would be behind by 2 if he won Colorado.



Nuke Boulder. I'll provide the coordinates.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:31:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By ARDunstan:
Dear God,
all I ask is, four more years.
Thank you.




He already told me the numbers....


Sgtar15
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