http://www.thestar.com/business/recession/article/1038310––the-undies-index-economic-forecasting-remains-more-art-than-science"In an age that devised such wonders as credit default swaps on tranches of subprime-backed collateralized debt obligations, one might fairly ask if humanity has perhaps become too clever for its own good.
Economics, alas, has become far more complicated than in the days when a handful of beads could get you Manhattan.
As Michael Lewis detailed in his bestselling The Big Short, not even the deluded wonder boys of Wall Street seemed to understand what they’d wrought in devising and flogging the aforementioned financial instruments, which helped trigger the worldwide economic crisis.
In one of the better of the many sentences written about the calamity, Lewis observed that the chap responsible for the largest single loss was "smart enough to be cynical about his market, but not smart enough to realize how cynical he needed to be.”
Little wonder, then, that laymen and women are ever on the lookout for simpler omens and portents about what manner of economic times lies ahead.
Macroeconomics being beyond the ken of most folk, the small stuff — briefs, if you like — is sometimes a more fruitful field of study in trying to discern what "the invisible hand” is up to."