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Posted: 4/17/2006 10:59:05 AM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 11:22:17 AM EST by StrkAliteN]
I am speculating that the price has just about peaked ( could rise another 10% throughout the summer months ).

Just like buying stocks at the 'low end' - I am throttling back on nearly all .223 / 5.56 purchases for the foreseeable future.

I don't really expect prices to come back to the $125 per 1K rounds for quality 5.56 ( ie: Q3131 or A ), but I do expect them to be 25% below what they are right now approx 12-24 months from now.

The potential scaling back of our war effort / troop reduction levels coupled with the additional ammunition suppliers running at full production and still failing to meet the demand hopefully equals ammo surplus in the near future.

I have stocked up on approx 12-15 thousand rounds of 5.56 / .223 and will be using that stash up for the remainder of this year. I only shoot about 5K rounds in an average summer so I am not really depleting my stock pile to critical levels I don't think.

I think the current ammo prices are just getting alittle out of hand and I will be doing my part to lessen the demand in hopes that the price will drop significantly in the future.

If retailers / suppliers / manufacturers / importers see the demand for their product drop. They may be inclined to pull the reigns back on this out of control price hike we have witnessed in the past 12-16 months.

I could be right .... I could be wrong. I just know what my personal spending discipline will be.

The 1-2 thousand dollars I would have spent on .223 ammo will most likely be spent on SA .308 because I don't see the supply of that lasting forever and it's doubtful that it ever drops much lower than it's current ( very reasonable ) price levels.

That's all I have to offer today
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:01:43 AM EST


stolen from the ammo forum....

and just for good measure....

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:03:28 AM EST
I feel the same way about 7.62 x 39. Hopefully fuel prices will drop soon to help in the price decrease.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:03:36 AM EST
Don't count on it. China is buying up raw materials like crazy as they continue to develop at ever increasing rates.

Talking to a few Chinese factory owners at SHOT show, they told me that things like copper, aluminum, iron, etc., etc. are continuing to rise in price as China continues to grow. I don't see the price coming back down anytime soon. If anything, it's only going higher.

Just MHO.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:05:16 AM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:07:38 AM EST
wolf is all i've been able to afford to shoot on a regular basis right now. lucky for me, their quality has been increasing steadily
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:07:43 AM EST
I've pretty much stopped buying large amounts of ammo of late.

I wouldn't mind another 400 rounds of Portuguese .208 though.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:18:40 AM EST
Tell me the last time anything ever went down
You are going to look back in 5 years and kicking yourself at how cheap you could have purchased cases of surplus.
buy it cheap, stack it deep
Inflation is just beginning to ramp up.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:20:35 AM EST
I'm done buying ammo anyway. Time to start reloading.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:50:00 AM EST
What's ammo?
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:51:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down




Uhh....

The price of computers
The price of televisions
The price of monitors
The price of broadband
The price of almost all consumer electronics.

etc
etc
etc
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:55:16 AM EST

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down




Uhh....

The price of computers
The price of televisions
The price of monitors
The price of broadband
The price of almost all consumer electronics.

etc
etc
etc




Lets see


made in China
made in China
Made in China
made in China


hmmm correlation?
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:56:46 AM EST

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down




Uhh....

The price of computers
The price of televisions
The price of monitors
The price of broadband
The price of almost all consumer electronics.

etc
etc
etc



electronics are not commodities. oil, metal, gunpowder, etc. are.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:59:04 AM EST
I am cutting back too. At the rate I am shooting I have enough for a couple years. Now it is time to buy more guns and magazines.

I see a Democratic President & Congress in our future. New AWB?
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 11:59:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By Cleatus:

Originally Posted By bastiat:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down




Uhh....

The price of computers
The price of televisions
The price of monitors
The price of broadband
The price of almost all consumer electronics.

etc
etc
etc




Lets see


made in China
made in China
Made in China
made in China


hmmm correlation?



broadband isn't made in china.
The price of many food products have either dropped outright or when compared to inflation (holding steady for several years). Just about all of it is made here in the USA.

The thing is when efficiency increases, production rises, and as long as demand doesn't go up, prices will tend to drop.

Right now you're seeing an extended period of increased demand for ammo. Eventually production will catch up, or demand will ease. Then the price will adjust itself.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:02:18 PM EST
Copper prices have increased by 25% since January 2005. If a product has copper in it then it will not
be going down in price any time soon. The only possible exception to this rule is mil surplus.

I'll continue to buy quality ammo...I don't own any trash guns so no Wolf in my toys.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:02:58 PM EST

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:04:19 PM EST

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip


Eww yuck! Guns are scary!!!
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:04:50 PM EST

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down
You are going to look back in 5 years and kicking yourself at how cheap you could have purchased cases of surplus.
buy it cheap, stack it deep
Inflation is just beginning to ramp up.


If inflation is just beginning to ramp up we could be in for some hard times. Inflation is one of the most insidious things that can happen to an economy. Its currently around 3-4%.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:05:12 PM EST
Just reload. It is cheaper in the long run. All the brass I get for free from range pick-ups.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:11:47 PM EST

Originally Posted By sWs2:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down
You are going to look back in 5 years and kicking yourself at how cheap you could have purchased cases of surplus.
buy it cheap, stack it deep
Inflation is just beginning to ramp up.


If inflation is just beginning to ramp up we could be in for some hard times. Inflation is one of the most insidious things that can happen to an economy. Its currently around 3-4%.



At least.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:14:25 PM EST

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip



What's a "clip?"

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:17:51 PM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip



What's a "clip?"




Those things that hold ammo that we use to load magazines.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:18:32 PM EST

Originally Posted By NewbHunter:

Originally Posted By sWs2:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down
You are going to look back in 5 years and kicking yourself at how cheap you could have purchased cases of surplus.
buy it cheap, stack it deep
Inflation is just beginning to ramp up.


If inflation is just beginning to ramp up we could be in for some hard times. Inflation is one of the most insidious things that can happen to an economy. Its currently around 3-4%.



At least.


I think you're confusing inflation with price increase... Inflation as measured by the CPI has been around 4% (give or take a % or 2) for the last 20 years or so.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:21:04 PM EST

Originally Posted By sWs2:

Originally Posted By NewbHunter:

Originally Posted By sWs2:

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down
You are going to look back in 5 years and kicking yourself at how cheap you could have purchased cases of surplus.
buy it cheap, stack it deep
Inflation is just beginning to ramp up.


If inflation is just beginning to ramp up we could be in for some hard times. Inflation is one of the most insidious things that can happen to an economy. Its currently around 3-4%.



At least.


I think you're confusing inflation with price increase... Inflation as measured by the CPI has been around 4% (give or take a % or 2) for the last 20 years or so.



I guess I should have clarified. I meant real inflation. CPI has only stayed around 4% because they have changed the way it has been calculated to keep it that low IMHO.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 12:28:41 PM EST

Originally Posted By thelastgunslinger:

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip



What's a "clip?"




Those things that hold ammo that we use to load magazines.



I call those "fingers."

Well, and a thumb.

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:00:21 PM EST

Originally Posted By SS109:
I am cutting back too. At the rate I am shooting I have enough for a couple years. Now it is time to buy more guns and magazines.
I see a Democratic President & Congress in our future. New AWB?



+1

I passed on a case ( 100 ) of USGI 30 rounders @ $7.50 - $8.00 per mag about a week ago.

Alittle more thought and I just may change my mind.

When it comes to mags ..... these are "the good ole' days"
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:02:50 PM EST
I make my own for about $100 per thousand...


I just bought 2000 rounds worth of powder, primers, and bullets...

Things like this mean nothing to me...

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:05:18 PM EST
tag for later
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:09:06 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:13:32 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/17/2006 2:15:30 PM EST by ODA_564]

Originally Posted By StrkAliteN:
I am speculating that the price has just about peaked ( could rise another 10% throughout the summer months ).

Just like buying stocks at the 'low end' - I am throttling back on nearly all .223 / 5.56 purchases for the foreseeable future.

I don't really expect prices to come back to the $125 per 1K rounds for quality 5.56 ( ie: Q3131 or A ), but I do expect them to be 25% below what they are right now approx 12-24 months from now.

The potential scaling back of our war effort / troop reduction levels coupled with the additional ammunition suppliers running at full production and still failing to meet the demand hopefully equals ammo surplus in the near future. rest snipped



The 5.56mm ammunition being produced for the US Armed Forces is M855 (and its sidekicks M856 tracer, XM996 'dim' tracer, and M995 AP), not M193.

"The potential scaling back of our war effort / troop reduction levels ..." While we may troops out of Iraq, neither peace will break out in the GWOT nor are we going to reduce the size of the military (we are rearranging the deck chairs, but not reducing).

Neither would cause a surplus of unpurchased M193-type 5.56mm ("quality 5.56 ( ie: Q3131 or A )," flooding the civilian shooting market.

And am I the only person that finds this July 2000 ArmaLite Technicla Bulletin ironic?


July 3, 2000

Technical Bulletin 6, Poor Performance of Winchester Q3131 Ammunition

ArmaLite has recently received complaints of poor extraction and ejection with some rifles, disfigured cases, and "blown" primer failures with some lots of Winchester Q3131 5.56mm ammunition. Close inspection of the rifles involved discloses no defect.

Review of Internet sites related to our rifles discloses that Q3131 is problematic in all brands of AR-15-type rifles. We conclude that the ammunition is suspect.

We therefore recommend against sustained use of Q3131. If you have any on hand, we recommend that you return it at the first sign of failure.

We absolutely recommend against using Q3131 in Law Enforcement or other applications requiring absolute confidence in ammunition.

We will provide more information as we get it.



No matter what the ammunition, some people say its shit.

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:22:22 PM EST

Originally Posted By StrkAliteN:

Originally Posted By SS109:
I am cutting back too. At the rate I am shooting I have enough for a couple years. Now it is time to buy more guns and magazines.
I see a Democratic President & Congress in our future. New AWB?



+1

I passed on a case ( 100 ) of USGI 30 rounders @ $7.50 - $8.00 per mag about a week ago.

Alittle more thought and I just may change my mind.

When it comes to mags ..... these are "the good ole' days"



Well... New, teflon coated 30rd'ers are in the EE for $8.29ea in packs of 10.
I just ordered 40 of 'em on Friday.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:28:59 PM EST

Originally Posted By ODA_564:
And am I the only person that finds this July 2000 ArmaLite Technicla Bulletin ironic?


July 3, 2000
....
Review of Internet sites related to our rifles discloses that Q3131 is problematic in all brands of AR-15-type rifles. We conclude that the ammunition is suspect.
....





No, because Q3131 and Q3131A are not the same thing.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 2:40:11 PM EST
Tomorrow I will add .223 to my reloading setup. Powder Valley shipment due to arrive with Varget and CCI 41s. Other than South African for my FAL, I hope to wean myself away from the high price spread.

AIM may have to get along without me for awhile. My ammo budget is temporarily tapped out. I know there are folks here who will take up the slack.

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:19:31 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:28:47 PM EST

Originally Posted By Ponyboy:

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By thelastgunslinger:

Those things that hold ammo that we use to load magazines.



I call those "fingers."

Well, and a thumb.




You've got weird fingers

us.st11.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/yhst-65152387619988_1893_3051449



Especially from User: "Garandman"
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:33:14 PM EST
I use dollar cost averaging
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:36:41 PM EST

Originally Posted By OFFascist:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Ammo

ROFL




Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:38:13 PM EST

I'm not buying ammo because I can't freakin' FIND any!

Who the heck has 75 gr black hills in stock (by the case)? Anyone? Why is everyone backordered on it (expected in two months)? Is the military using it? Is everyone buying up 75gr for some odd reason? I can understanding the XM193 and stuff becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy because people buy it up because they think there's going to be a shortage, thus causing the shortage. But I wouldn't imagine that would apply to 75gr.

Or is this normal with Black Hills? Do they run batches of ammo, so that everyone eventually runs out until the next batch?

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:39:27 PM EST

Originally Posted By Bob243:

Originally Posted By OFFascist:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Ammo

ROFL








That's fantastic.

TRH is famous!!


Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:43:31 PM EST

Originally Posted By BozemanMT:
Tell me the last time anything ever went down...



Magazines, this month in our own EE.

New with gen II magpul followers now cost less than used with black followers did.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:44:19 PM EST
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:46:48 PM EST


This chart shows the pricing of 1000rds as valued in Gold Ounces(same thing from page 1 except adjusted for inflation)
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:47:03 PM EST
I've got 35K put away and I'm done buying it myself. Going back to stocking up on AR mags for a while, then............I need nothing.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:48:22 PM EST
The sky is falling oh noes!!!!
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 3:53:27 PM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By MuRDoC:

Originally Posted By tripledouble:
What's ammo?



I think it's those shiny pointed thing we put into a clip



What's a "clip?"





Those things that hold the ammo so it's easier to load 8 rounds into my Garand.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 4:11:23 PM EST

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By Bob243:

Originally Posted By OFFascist:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Ammo

ROFL








That's fantastic.

TRH is famous!!





I linked to it in the 7.62X39 page
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 4:54:47 PM EST

Originally Posted By macman37:
I wouldn't mind another 400 rounds of Portuguese .208 though.




Wheres can I'se finds me sums of dat .208?????

Link Posted: 4/17/2006 5:11:32 PM EST
One of the drawbacks of war: ammo shortages.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 5:18:12 PM EST
WTF peak ammo got deleted, thats lame.
Link Posted: 4/17/2006 5:24:38 PM EST
Ammo isn't increasing in price, your FRN's (dollars) are beciming worthless.

GR
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