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Posted: 11/21/2008 1:22:56 AM EDT
Hope not, life will get much too interesting if it does…




From The Times
November 21, 2008
National Intelligence Council report: sun setting on the American century


The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources
Tim Reid in Washington

Read the report in full  LINK

The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.

“The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons,” said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.

The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obama’s entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.

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“The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes,” the 121-page assessment said.

The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. “Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons,” the report Global Trends 2025 said. “This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region,” it said.

The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. “If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists.”

The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. “Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions,” it said.

“The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength – even in the military realm – will decline and US leverage will become more strained.”

Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.

The US dollar’s role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a “first among equals”.

“Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries.” The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about America’s global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. “The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks,” it said.

The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..

The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaeda’s “terrorist wave” might be breaking up. “AlQaeda’s inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think,” it said.

On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5202497.ece
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 1:34:14 AM EDT
Originally Posted By vito113:
Hope not, life will get much too interesting if it does…


Any report that assumes man-made global warming is real, and predicts socio-economic actions based on the same as a factor is suspect, to say the least...

The sooner we get over this 'green' crap, and realize that it's as likely as the 1970s 'New Ice Age'....

The better....
Link Posted: 11/21/2008 1:40:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/21/2008 1:43:28 AM EDT by Frost7]
I've heard this song at least twice before, and I'm not even into my thirties. Remember when the whole US was going to be owned by Japan by 2005? The fact that it's resting on belief in that silly global warming scam only makes it worse.

America's gonna experience problems, yes, but I think short of a civil war erupting here, you'll see us roaring back before long. Far as the US dollar... it's falling, but, remind me, whose currencies are falling further, faster? That's right, everyone else's.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:19:04 AM EDT
The problem with that assessment is that it assumes everyone else will be doing better than us.

"When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold."  There is noone else that can pick up our slack.  We will bounce back faster and higher than anyone assuming politicians don't screw it up.

Who - The EU, China, or Russia will take our place?  riiiiight.  

So arms races in the middle east is a cause of our problem?  SS,DD.

A small bright spot might be that alternative energy to oil might be in place?  THAT alone would put us far a head of everyone else.

Sounds like a report writtern for a specific audience.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:21:02 AM EDT
Push the button, get it over with. It's almost time we start from scratch.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:23:55 AM EDT
Yep, and according to what I was taught in the 3rd grade, we should have run out of oil by now.  The media loves this chicken little shit.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:32:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/22/2008 10:33:03 AM EDT by mstennes]
The problem I have with global warming is, hell my whole problem with global climate change is, wtf brought on the ice age that killed the dinos?  Then what the f**k brought on the global warming that ended the ice age?  There sure as hell wasnt any nations back then to cause a climate change...........  Why is it so hard to look back at the earths history and see that climate changes happen due to nature and not blame everything on man????????  Honestly.................
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:35:34 AM EDT
Oh for FUCK's sake!
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:50:41 AM EDT
I'm not too worried, frankly.

I haven't really bothered to read this NIE, but usually, NIEs cover a range of possible outcomes. Journos then take the worst possible outcomes, and string them into two paragraph story.

That was the real backstory behind the recent Iraq NIE and Iran Nuclearization NIE.  Neither said "Iraq is a failure" or "Iran isn't reprocessing."  Both of those statements were included as possibilities, but not as the central thrust or Intelligence Community consensus.

All of the countries postulated as near peer advarsaries/competitors (China, Russia, India) have their own significant issues, and the only one of the three that is actively trying to fix them is India.

Russia and China have SIGNIFICANT structural issues, and managing Russian or Chinese WEAKNESS is actually a greater concern to me, than either country's strength.
Russia's potential issues with its near Abroad pale in comparision with our battles with Islamist extremism.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 10:53:18 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/22/2008 10:54:57 AM EDT by IAMLEGEND]
Originally Posted By Dave_A:
Originally Posted By vito113:
Hope not, life will get much too interesting if it does…


Any report that assumes man-made global warming is real, and predicts socio-economic actions based on the same as a factor is suspect, to say the least...

The sooner we get over this 'green' crap, and realize that it's as likely as the 1970s 'New Ice Age'....

The better....



+1

Immediately drops it into the category of stuff based on astrology, psychics and religion.


ETA: Not to say that some of this might not end up coming true or partially true.  But in that case this source will be coincidentally correct, that's all.

Link Posted: 11/22/2008 11:07:47 AM EDT
I've said that to my friends for a while.  The Twentieth Century was Anglo-American with the British reigning supreme until about 1939 and then America assuming the role after 1948.  Of course, America didn't really rule it as we faced off with the Soviet Union, but as soon as that collapsed, we were on top.  Now we're tettering and are about to fall over and the new powerhouse will be China.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 11:16:46 AM EDT
no the new powerhouse will not be china. China is too tightly linked to the US. China and America are partners to the end. It will be the EU.
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 11:22:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/22/2008 11:24:22 AM EDT by galogger]
Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:
Originally Posted By Dave_A:
Originally Posted By vito113:
Hope not, life will get much too interesting if it does…


Any report that assumes man-made global warming is real, and predicts socio-economic actions based on the same as a factor is suspect, to say the least...

The sooner we get over this 'green' crap, and realize that it's as likely as the 1970s 'New Ice Age'....

The better....



+1

Immediately drops it into the category of stuff based on astrology, psychics and religion.


ETA: Not to say that some of this might not end up coming true or partially true.  But in that case this source will be coincidentally correct, that's all.

Agree, 100%

Damn, did I just agree with DaveA?

Link Posted: 11/22/2008 12:11:28 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/22/2008 1:02:50 PM EDT
Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:
Originally Posted By Dave_A:
Originally Posted By vito113:
Hope not, life will get much too interesting if it does…


Any report that assumes man-made global warming is real, and predicts socio-economic actions based on the same as a factor is suspect, to say the least...

The sooner we get over this 'green' crap, and realize that it's as likely as the 1970s 'New Ice Age'....

The better....



+1

Immediately drops it into the category of stuff based on astrology, psychics and religion.


ETA: Not to say that some of this might not end up coming true or partially true.  But in that case this source will be coincidentally correct, that's all.



Its not that the report assumes such, its that people actually believe this tripe and act accordingly.
It's gonna suck really bad when we fully realize the masses are going to take us down with them and there is nothing we can do about it.
All over socio-political bullshit.
And we think we are so smart...
HA!
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