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11/22/2017 10:05:29 PM
Posted: 9/17/2004 3:27:36 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 3:42:03 AM EST
With the exception of Iowa, those are the same states that GWB won in 2000
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 3:49:43 AM EST
Why the hell to the republicans get the color red? Democrats are the commie ones!!
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 3:53:39 AM EST
That one goes against some others I've seen...
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 4:28:04 AM EST
Turn Wisconsin red please.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 4:59:51 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 5:00:31 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 5:03:21 AM EST
The polls sure seem to be erratic this year. States are swinging from "strong Bush" to "exactly tied" in a couple days.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 5:03:37 AM EST
Too many pink states... they need to be strengthened,,,


We need PA and Florida solid... dernit


- BG


(Yeah, i know the total count puts Bush way ahead but look at the swingin states!)
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 6:02:20 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 6:04:26 AM EST
What about this CNN poll that showed they were back in a dead heat? Have other polls come out debunking it?
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:24:58 AM EST

Originally Posted By motown_steve:
What about this CNN poll that showed they were back in a dead heat? Have other polls come out debunking it?



That is the PEW poll. I am not a big fan of the Pew Foundation which is pretty far-left.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:40:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:42:07 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:55:59 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 8:01:37 AM EST by imposter]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Which state went from strong Bush to tied in a day? I've seen weak Bush (leads were within margin of error) go to tied... but nothing that was strongly. I have however seen strong Kerry states go Bush.


It was the map from yesterday: www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep16p.html. Yesterday Ohio was strong Bush, today it is tied.

Karl Rove is undoubtedly just messing with our heads. Either that, or there is a lot of sloppy polling going on.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:03:18 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:08:10 AM EST
What happened to Ohio? I thought that was strong Bush a few days ago?
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:13:31 AM EST

Originally Posted By imposter:
The polls sure seem to be erratic this year. States are swinging from "strong Bush" to "exactly tied" in a couple days.



That is because they use whatever poll was most recent in their estimation. Hit the button asking for an estimated outcome and it will give you a linear progression based on all polls that is probably a better guide to where the election might end up.

Also remember that GWB was polling 10 points behing Gore in 2000 and Reagan was polling 8 points behind Mondale in late October 1984 (this was before his landslide win over Mondale).

Polls are just a guide; but the most important thing is that you get out and vote. If you get discouraged by downbeat polls and stay home, then you make it a self-fufilling prophecy.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:21:22 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 8:22:10 AM EST by imposter]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
What would be interesting is to see what Rasmussen was calling it two weeks ago in Ohio... my guess would have been weak to strong Kerry.


I found this:

Ohio: Kerry 48% Bush 46%

State data from National Survey of 13,000 Likely Voters

August 1-26, 2004

Ohio 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Kerry 48%
Other 2%
Not Sure 3%
RasmussenReports.com


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
August 28, 2004--Many pundits think Ohio may be the decisive state in the Election 2004 Presidential race. If the race remains close it is certainly one of the four biggest states in play for the Electoral College competition (along with Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).

If either Presidential candidate wins three of those four states, he is likely to win the election.

Neither candidate, however, can feel confident about Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows the state remains too close to call--Senator Kerry earns 48% of the vote while President Bush attracts 46%.

A month ago, Kerry was up by a single point in the Rasmussen Reports poll, 46% to 45%. The month before, Bush held a four-point lead in the state, 46% to 42%.

Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:23:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By AR15fan:
www.electionprojection.com/images/EVMap.gif



I knew it...I live in a pink state...
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:33:30 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 9:15:05 AM EST by Fred-in-PA]
The news is that none of these current polls are correct...because they are not polling cell phones. Hence they are not collecting any data from the younger voters. Land line polls may be obsolete..or at the very least, inaccurate.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:37:40 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:39:07 AM EST

Originally Posted By Fred-in-PA:
The news is that none of these current polls are correct...because they are not polling cells phones. Hence they are not collecting any data from the younger voters. Land line polls may be obsolete..or at the very least, inaccurate.



You are right! Everyone I know has axed the landline and gone to cell phones
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:43:04 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:03:56 AM EST
Polling, especially media polling, is most often nothing more than a well-crafted lie masquerading as news -- a lie intended to influence public opinion. In political cycles, media polls lead public opinion, particularly the opinion of those who are "undecided," rather than reflect public opinion and are, ultimately, self-fulfilling.

To explain better the process of polling as propaganda, consider three definitions from The Patriot's editorial-shop dictionary:

Pollaganda -- Outcome-based polling; instruments designed to generate a preferential outcome, which can be used to manipulate public opinion by advancing the perception that a particular issue or candidate has majority support.

Pollagandize -- To utilize instruments of pollaganda, or selective poll reporting (reporting mostly favorable polls), to advance a particular bias.

Pollaganda Cycle -- The intentional propagation of a particular bias by Leftmedia mainstream television and print outlets to manipulate public opinion by first saturating viewers with "reporting" that reflects a particular bias; second, conducting public opinion polls in concert with like-minded organizations or campaigns, which will reflect that bias; third, further proselytizing viewers by treating these poll results as "news"; and fourth, using pollaganda to induce "bandwagon psychology" (the human tendency of those who do not have a strong ideological foundation to aspire to the side perceived to be in the majority), thus driving public opinion toward the original media bias.

ABC's George Stephanopoulos, a key strategist in Bill Clinton's campaigns and one of many Leftists who have repeatedly passed through the looking glass between political camps and their news fronts, noted that political scientists "talk about the bandwagon effect, that once a candidate gets in the zone, all of the coverage is good, almost no matter what happens...."

Indeed, Leftmedia pollagandizing of the electorate is an intentional undermining of the democratic process. Pollaganda not only creates a targeted constituency; at the same time it can discourage voter turnout, turning the electoral process into a spectator sport.

17 September 2004
Federalist Patriot No. 04-37
Friday Digest
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:08:47 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:
Originally Posted By Fred-in-PA:

That's sarcasm right? I know a handful of people that have, but most people I know have a regular phone and a cell-phone.



... Not around here they don't. I haven't had a land-line in four-years, neither have a majority of many folks I know
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:42:12 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 9:42:58 AM EST by Spade]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
www.electoral-vote.com

updated daily based on a number of polls as they are released.

www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep17.png




I like electoral vote. Updated a fair amount, really shows where a state is, well done graphs.

I'm pretty sure it's run by a left leaning guy, but he seems to want to do a genuinly good job at reporting what's going on with the polls, so thumbs up to him.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:17:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:
Originally Posted By Fred-in-PA:

That's sarcasm right? I know a handful of people that have, but most people I know have a regular phone and a cell-phone.



... Not around here they don't. I haven't had a land-line in four-years, neither have a majority of many folks I know


+1 Cut the cord 9 years ago.

CW
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:22:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:
Originally Posted By Fred-in-PA:

That's sarcasm right? I know a handful of people that have, but most people I know have a regular phone and a cell-phone.



... Not around here they don't. I haven't had a land-line in four-years, neither have a majority of many folks I know



No land line here for nearly three years. With a cable modem and a cell phone and most of the family in-state who needs a land line? Planerench out.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:27:02 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:32:53 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 10:35:36 AM EST by leelaw]
Swing CA!

ETA: Have you seen the electoral-vote.com "political humor" page?
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 6:11:46 PM EST

Originally Posted By leelaw:
Swing CA!

ETA: Have you seen the electoral-vote.com "political humor" page?


If CA goes red, then all the other "swing states are irrelevant.

CW
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 7:35:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By Planerench:

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:
Originally Posted By Fred-in-PA:

That's sarcasm right? I know a handful of people that have, but most people I know have a regular phone and a cell-phone.



... Not around here they don't. I haven't had a land-line in four-years, neither have a majority of many folks I know



No land line here for nearly three years. With a cable modem and a cell phone and most of the family in-state who needs a land line? Planerench out.



Only people who mind someone crusing the streets with a scanner listening in to your conversations and copying their data....
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 7:44:07 AM EST
Take them with a boulder of salt. The unwashed masses are not being polled.

It's anecdotal, but consider this- the drummer in my band was a BIG TIME Clinton supporter during the 90's.

He's voting for Bush.



It's the Al Qeada thing.

Your average democrat is not entirely stupid. I believe there are many, many more people who have come to the same conclusion.
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