If what he says has any relevance;some say yes,some say no,then why would anyone buy any insurance or invest in the stock market?
Why would you buy any gold,diamonds or anything like comodities?
Wouldn't you sink everything into guns,ammo,food and water?
If terrorists have the capability to explode one nuke,of any type,wouldn't they wait until they could detonate 15 or 20 devices?
If nuke explosions hit NYC,DC,Chi,Dallas,SF and LA on the same day,or just within days of each other,what good would having insurance do?
Lots of question I know,but I would like to read more responses than what have already been posted,to the earlier post,on this.
Thanks,I enjoy thinking about what you are thinking about.
SF,AA,BAYCB!!

Actually gold, diamonds, etc., are what people tend to invest in during times of uncertainity.  
In my opinion, about $500 + dollars in the smallest denomination gold coins you can find is a good investment to go into a proper SHTF bag.

If the terrorists goal is maximum 'destruction' of people and infrastructure probably they should and would wait.

However, if the terrorists goal is maximum 'disruption' (as was the case in the 9/11 attacks) then the better terrorists strategy is to set off one bomb at the time.

I cannot even begin to fathom the impact on our economy from one small, dirty nuke.

If they had a nuclear weapon I don't think they would wait to aquire more before using it.  The chance of them getting caught with said nuke would be too great.  There are plenty of things they could do short of using a nuke that would cause us serious problems.  I would rather not offer suggestions for other acts of terrorisism but I am sure you can think of some.

Precious metals and gems are a lousy idea.

First: its anarchy, rogue bands roam our cities and rural areas. One finds out that you have..GOLD!..Guess what comes next.

Second: what is it really worth. Nothing in a pinch. You can't eat it. You can't use it as a weapon to protect yourself. It can't give you shelter or provide warmth.

If SHTF what will be worth something?
1)nonperishable and some perishable food
2)water if its in short supply
3)weapons and ammunition
4)antibiotics and medicines
5)fuel
6)Services and supplies that people need. ie what do you do for a living? what are your skills? Are they marketable for barter?

Think about it.

Buffett owns a very profitable insurance company.

Insurance companies bet on certain things happening, and other things not happening.

They are very good at it.

They will not insure for or against things if they really think they will lose money on it.

This prediction scares me more than just a little.

Buy Berkshire Hathaway and a mountain home like this one:

[img]http://www.silohome.com/1e3db3b0.gif[/img]

[url]http://www.silohome.com/[/url]

Warren Buffet the new Nostradamus

Did you need Buffet to tell you this?  If the 2% drop in the dow today was because of Buffett's comments, then it's fear-based, irrational, stupid, and a reason to buy.

Except.....

I am really bearish anyway with the stock market right now.  If there's a reason to sell, it's because:

1.  P/E ratios are about the same as they were in boomtime late 90's

2.  The very high corporate earnings reported even then are now highly suspect

3. Earnings now suck complete ass, yet stock prices in the Dow are roughly were they were when earnings were rocking.  But as I said before, those earnings then were probably FRAUDULENT.  Prices therefore cannot possibly rise.  Dividends are low.  SO WHY IN GOD'S NAME WOULD YOU BUY STOCKS?!?!!

4.  Wall Street shennanigans and heavy losses are turning off Main Street from investing in stocks, which means fewer buyers, which means no one to sell your stock to in favor of selling at a better price.  

This is why I laugh at idiots like The_Macallan who average down buying as stocks fall.  They don't realize the rules and the macro view of the market have changed.  They will be eaten alive.

When they finally realize this and get out of the market, this will be the exact point where the market turns around.  

Hi guys. Interesting thread. I agree that if they had a nuke they would use it. Not just because they seem to have problems with impulse contriol, but because nukes tend to be tightly controlled and have a shelf life. With a nuke it is use it or lose it.
I have been in a real live SHTF situation in the 3rd world on several occasisions. There was murder, looting, I was homeless, and I didn't eat for about 6 days during one of them because I stupidly obeyed the foreign country'laws and had no weap. I was almost killed trying to get a bottle of clean water.
If you want all of the story I will be happy to post it.
That being said, drjarhead is dead on, but not because people will want to steal "precious" metals, etc. I had 2 decent sized rubies. I tried to exchange them for food, gasoline, and food. Nothing doing. Nobody wanted that crap, they wanted toilet paper, food, or a change of clothes. Some just wanted clean water for their kids. If you read reports from Bosnia there are reports of what people really wanted. It wasn't gold. It was toilet paper and matches so they could build a fire to stay warm. Gold is in case of economic collapse. Well after the tribulation point when commerece resumes it allows you to come back. Looters don't think that far ahead. They won't approach an armed man even if they are armed. They start out  looking for goods they never had because of economics, but the focus swiftly shifts to food, water, and shelter once they realize what has happened. Rather than stockpiling water, I would suggest a reverse osmosis filtration unit and filters. You can drink seawater with those things. You don't necessarily need pure water, but your children do. They are a bit more fragile. A weapon is a must. Trust me on this one. No, my tinfoil hat isn't out of alignment. Scumbags don't want conflict, they just want to steal what they can. Dried goods, especially beans and oatmeal and 2000 vitamins can go a very long way with a family of 4. Heck, your colon will thank you. Out loud. If you have a wood burning water heater you will have hot water. You don't need to hook it up until necessary. I have a multifuel one myself. If you get two, you will have a source of fuel for vehicles and generators in perpetuity. They make a dandy still, and you can make and distill alcohol with a minimum of ability. If I had to stock antibiotics I would go with 42 500mg tabs of Trimethoprim SXM, 20 500mg tabs of amoxicillin, 20 500 mg tabs of Flagyl, and 50 100mg tabs of doxycycline. Doxy is great stuff. Get extra for barter. If you cure someone's sick kid when there is a real chance of the little bugger dying, you may not have a friend you can count on, but chances are he won't try to hurt you.
Several case of toilet paper for individual roll barter, strike anywhere matches up the wazoo, (I will trade you one round of rifle ammo for each match), and a load of dial soap will all serve you in good stead for barter. Will work for food won't just be on signs carried by scam artists.
Just some random thoughts.

Why would you thimk that the audience here at AR15.com would be unarmed? Why would you think that the advice of "A weapon is a must" would be veiwed with a jaundiced eye?

This site has gone to the toilet and not flushed.

well, I have supplies, and guns, and one more important thing if the Sever does HTF. I have the skills and equipment to get my own gold. If things do go to hell in a handbasket, you can bet your ass that gold will be one of the only things used for "money".

If you are interested in learning about gold prospecting I suggest you go here [url]www.tomashworth.com[/url]

Aviator  [img]www.milpubs.com/aviator.gif[/img]

After the gun "stuff and nonsense" you offer helpful ideas that does not deserve scorn and ridicule.

I do leave my scorn and ridicule up so that in the future you realize that we don't apologize for firearms 'round these parts.

Sorry. That bit about the tinfoil hat originally followed the drinking seawater bit. It was improperly positioned after I edited it. But thanks for being a total ass in the fashion in which you pointed it out.

One nuke anywhere in the world will cause tremendous disruption to US economy.  One in America will cause things you can't even imagine on your worst drunk.

SHTF is not tinfoil time.  Used to be but not anymore.  We are way too complacent!  The morons behind 9/11 will try again, and again.  Public fear and confusion will go wild after the next attack.  

Wonder if things will calm down as quickly next time?

Interestingly a nuke attack may not affect the insurance industry at all.  No form of nuclear event is insured.  Read your policy; what you have is nada!  If next attack gets called what it is, an act of war, insurance disappears as well.

Warren Buffet didn't get to be worth billions by being stupid nor does he claim to be always right.  Makes his opinion worth some consideration.

I would enjoy reading about your 3rd world SHTF experience , and I'll relate my 3 day experience in a Turkish jail and its connection to having insurance or proof there of .

Hey Poikilotrm , I would enjoy reading about your 3rd world SHTF experience , and I'll relate my 3 day experience in a Turkish jail and its connection to having insurance or proof there of .

A personal attack like calling me "a total ass" is bad form and was once prohibited here.

I suppose that since you felt that you were offering info we did not know you should have told us about your uniquely total ass wipe techniques.

Perhaps you have some total ass wipe advice you could share? But do wash your hands and your mouth first. Thanks big guy.

Everybody needs to take a step back, doncha think?  

It's just the internet, ya know...


So, once again, toilet paper is worth it's weight in gold... is that literally or figuratively?

[:)]

Curiously enough, the "heavier" you make the TP, the less folks seem to want it.
In my line of work, emergency medicine,  I frequently meet crack whores. Perhaps TP whores in a post SHTF situation? "Yo baby! You gots a sheet? jus' one sheet! thas all I needs baby! I'll do anythin you wants fo some Charmin!"

Turkish jail? Insurance? Umm. OK. You do realize I was being truthful, right?

And last but not least, I didn't fire the first scatalogical shot here, so to speak.

poikilotrm is correct in his earlier analysis regarding the heirarchy of required supplies.  A TRUE SHTF scenario requires survival equipment and SKILLS.  Gold is one of the last things you need.  Some gold and cash could be useful under a limited scenario, that is, one not resulting in a complete breakdown.

One important thing to remember before putting all one's faith and assets into gold and waiting for mere economic collapse:  the government can always outlaw gold.  They (F.D. Roosevelt) did it in 1934.  

An economic collapse will result in some hysteria, but it won't be total doomsday.  Staying in the house with food supplies and a couple of good weapons - not a Rambo outfit - to protect from gangs will do.  

A nuke or bio attack necessitates longer period stays, barricading, and stronger defense against roving mobs looking to oust you from your home.  Weapons of course, but the best defense will be to be amongst like-minded people for a common defense.

My doctrine is based on sensibility. No wide swings. Keep a moderate to conservative portfolio. A little tobacco, ammunition or condoms would be just as valuable as gold if the SHTF.
Keep an ample supply of those items on hand that sheeple laugh at us for keeping [;-)].
Support your trusted web of close family, friends and neighbors. Learn all you can about surviving in a post apocalyptic society no matter how far fetched and unbelievable it may seem now. Hone your basic skills. Think about this: Could you keep your family alive one month without electricity and water to your house?

... and a prayer here and there couldn't hurt!

The word is scatological, big guy. And yes, you did fire the first personal shot.

Consider that maybe not everything is about you personally, all the time. The reference of the toilet was in fact not directed to you or at you. The mods here once would have jumped on your bad form with at least a warning. Lately anything goes here and I for one don't know why or where exactly the mods are taking this site.

poikilotherm:

A couple of questions (from a Student):



1.  Trimethoprim-- UTI treatment, right?
2.  Amoxicillin-- Why not Augmentin instead?
3.  Flagyl-- for Anaerobes, right?
4.  Doxy-- (choice for several dz--Lyme, Gonorrhea, anthrax, chlamydia).

I'm assuming the choices are for the most common things you might see in emergency med?  I was going to ask about either Levaquin or Keflex, but I looked up what they cost, and I would assume the Amox covers close to the same spectrum without the increased cost.

When you think antibiotics think kid's illnesses in a SHTF situation. The dirty little secret of medicine is that 90% of the adults we treat would probably get better all by themselves infectious diease-wise. There is a reason folks had 8-9 kids before antibiotics hit the scene. You could expect some of them to die before the age of 16. With that in mind...

Trimethoprim is good for UTI's (urinary tract infections) but you can also use it for whooping cough (Bordetella pertussis). Think UTIs in little girls. Also it is effective against strep A,B,C, and D, strep pneumoniae, staph, listeria monocytogenes (menigitis in newborns), gonorrhea, Neisseria menigitides (meningitis in young adults), morexella catarrhalis, heamophilus influenzae (earache and pneumonia in children mostly), aeromonas, E. coli (pneumonia and hemolytic uremic syndrome in children as well as UTI), Kleibsiella (URI (upper respiratory tract infection) in children), salmonella ( yeah it kills it, but so what? It won't effect the disease outcome or progression), shigella (same thing), serratia maracens, Yersinia enterocolitica (related to Yersinia pestis, the Black Death), F. tulerensis (rabbit fever, kids find a sick rabbit and they play with it), Brucella (brucellosis), Legionella, haemophilus ducreyi, Chlymidia ( not just a Vd/STD. There are species that cause pneumonia.

Sure you could go with augmentin, but the addition of clauvinic acid triples the price, and I just don't see the difference in efficacy on a day to day basis. If you give a patient 500mg BID (twice a day) for ten day, it will kick whatever is succeptable to it. I would just go with amoxicillan. $.50 a pill at the overpriced CVS means $10.00 for a normal treatment course. So get a RX for ten corses of treatment. They last 5 years at room temp in a cool dry place, probably twice that in a fridge. And if there is a cessation of services and your fridge doesn't work, then you know it is still good for several years after you take it out of the fridge and set it on the shelf. Amoxicillan covers things too numerous to list here, but it is excellent for human and animal bites, skin infections, as well as earaches/URIs.

Flagyl hits anaerobes and it also kills enteric parasites. If your kids get dosed with bad water they can die. Keep this stuff around for severe diarrhea. Diarrhea kills more 3rd world kids than anything. Also Giardia and histoplasma can eat through a kid's intestinal wall and wreak havoc, and Flagyl kills them.

Doxy is good for a whole host of things. It treats B. burgdorferi which is Lyme disease, syphillis, cat sctratch (Bartonella), anthrax, human bites, animal bites, and clostridium infections. So if you are a biowarfare terrorist who lives with agressive cats in a New England state in a wooded area surrounded by punjii stakes who likes hookers who bite, then doxycycline will have you covered.

Quinolone antibiotics are expensive and you can't give them to kids. They also don't have any greater efficacy or spectrum of coverage than the other antibiotics I mentioned. Why pay 3-4 times as much for a drug that might cripple or deform your kid. They can be crippled because quinolones can cause damage to the Achille's tendon as well as its tenon. They have been shown to cause premature closure of the epiphesial growth plates in animal models. Nobody was brave enough to try it on someone's kid. You can thank the 2nd amendment for that.

keflex can stress out a kid's liver, is expensive, and again isn't any better than the one's I have mentioned.

I hope this answers any questions and justifies my choices. Any further questions, please ask.

5.56, 9mm, .45ACP, 12 gauge, .22LR=$

This equasion is valid because it works both backward and forward.

Poi:

Thanks for the info.  I've been in on a couple of Achilles Tendon repairs, and it isn't something to take too lightly (a fairly straightforward surgery shortly after the rupture, gets a hell of a lot more complicated after several weeks--even at it's easiest, not something that would be done in a SHTF situation.

I see you addressed the shelf life of the Amox., but don't the others have much shorter shelf-lives (not a lot you can do about it, but it might be a concern several years after you buy them).

Thanks again.

AFARR

A while back, I read the following in someone's sig line, and found it to be dangerously true:

[b]Ammo will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no ammo.[/b]

Very interesting posts - plenty of food for thought here.

They do now, especially for strains of anthrax in current use by unfriendlies as a bioweapon.  Doxycycline was ineffective in at least one one of the recent anthrax cases - a fluoroquinolone cured the patient.

Reference:
[URL]http://www.wired.com/news/conflict/0,2100,47889,00.html[/URL]

Thanks, Poik, good info.  I too would be interested in your SHTF stories.

BTW, how would would someone get a prescription for Antibiotics?  (besides lying "doc, I get this burning sensation everytime I..."

Maybe, but when you need it, you need it.  I did.

Regarding doxycycline, remember that the shelf life is very limited.  Not something that you sock away for a decade.  The only place I could find a number suggests two years max.

Ditto on both comments.

AFARR-If you have had Achille's tendon repairs you should probably never take any quinolones and tell any doctor who attempts to prescribe them about your surgical history. I did my graduation thesis on Achille's tendonitis and tenonitis. It is an interesting bit of tissue, and very sensitive to many things, especially iodine.

As far as the shelf life of doxy, it can be extended by placing it in a refridgerator. It is also not terribly expensive, so replacing it every 2-3 years probably won't break you. Plus, if you or your kids get sick in the meantime, ask if the docor would be comfortable prescribing doxy. If he would have him do so, then use your older stash and replace the loss with the RX he gave you.

e8ght- As far as anthrax is concerned, don't be. It is non-contagious from human to human since we aren't fur bearing. Also the anthrax used was developed by USAMRIID, not foreign nationals. This has been acknowledged, sadly, by the US government. It is difficult to properly weaponize anthrax and even more difficult to disperse, so don't fear anthrax sent by Ihumpagoatistan. Smallpox is the real bugaboo. I suggest vaccines for everyone that has not been vaccinated at least twice. Also anthrax can be cured with regular penicillan.

If you want these antibiotics go to your family doctor and tell him that you want these things. Tell him that you want them as an insurance policy. If he is a decent guy he will give them to you. Explain that you are not interested in randomly self medicating and that you will go to him for proper health care, but that you want these things in case of a national Cincinatti/LA riot type of experience. He will know that it won't hurt a thing for you to have these things in your house, and will probably give peace of mind.

71 Hour Achmed- True, when you need it you need it. But this is about a good basic antibiotic toolkit, and normally noone needs augmentin, especially at $3-4.00 per pill. Especially when tandem antibiotic therapy can suffice for less money. That is when you give two antibiotics at once to prevent resistant bacteria from being able to survive. We do this frequently in older folks and AIDS patients. We will give a cephalosporin (sort of a modified penicillan-like drug) plus Azithromycin.

When I have time I will post my sordid little tale of third world strife, where I was forced to forage for food, water, and to break and enter for shelter.

Back to the nuke subject, I have a little conspicracy theory that could explain some of the activities of the white house.

What would the President do if there was a credible threat of a nuke against the US?

* Tell his closest aids - two just left. I never felt Karen Hughes' reason for leaving was believable.

* Make the suspected enemy countries aware of their status of retaliatory targets - Axis of Evil. This was strange foreign policy plus we have added some more countries to the list including Cuba and Syria.

* Have a credible person who is not in government predict it to ease your conscience since you aren't warning the target cities yourself.

* Continue to appear to work with Yassar Arafat even though it's obvious he is a pathological liar.

It's a long shot, but does make sense of some strange loose ends.