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Posted: 9/24/2004 8:59:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 8:59:41 AM EST by NewbHunter]
Looks like Bush took a big jump again...

www.electoral-vote.com

This sure is confusing trying to predict what will happen. I don't think we'll know for sure until November.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 9:23:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 9:23:56 AM EST by Torf]

Originally Posted By NewbHunter:
This sure is confusing trying to predict what will happen. I don't think we'll know for sure until November.





Sorry man, couldn't pass that up!
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 10:07:00 AM EST
Oregon is Red?!! Sweet! I never thought I'd see the day.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 10:51:26 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 10:59:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
There is a little button there to click for the final projection. It is based on the regression analysis of all the various state polls in all the states... While not fool-proof, its pretty tenable.



And it has Bush 336, Kerry 192 as the final prediction. Still far too early to put much stock in this, but it does look nice.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:01:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By _Ugly_:
Oregon is Red?!! Sweet! I never thought I'd see the day.



WooHoo!
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:05:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
There is a little button there to click for the final projection. It is based on the regression analysis of all the various state polls in all the states... While not fool-proof, its pretty tenable.



Yeah, I saw that, but I'm still not totally convinced of the lead that Bush has over Kerry. I guess I"m just not sure how accurate these polls really are. I know that historically some of them are very accurate, but I think things are a little different in today's world.

We'll see I guess...
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:17:04 AM EST
Checking in from a BLUE state, dammit!!!!
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:19:21 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 11:19:50 AM EST by Lockedon]
"Weak Bush", "Strong Bush"...hehehehe
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:36:53 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:48:44 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 1:53:25 PM EST by NevadaARshooter]
Lousy sticking Las Vegas (East Kalifornia).
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:55:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Its not how accurate any one poll is... the strength of that website is it uses many different polls that are updated continuously. If you click on say Florida you will see the results of all the polls conducted there over time. A computer is than used to conduct a regression analysis that projects out the final outcome based upon months of data from several sources. Its not fool-proof, but as somebody who does polling for campaigns, I can tell you that it is sound science. Now there is a lot of time for something amazing to happen that will throw everything off... but honestly, what else could they possibly throw at Bush that wouldn't smack of last minute desperation? Hell, they've already resorted to document fabrication and using the mainstream media as their tool.

Let me ask you this, even if something amazingly damaging came to light... how seriously would it be taken after this... Boy that cried wolf... boy that cried wolf...



Well, I see your point. I guess I just don't want to be too optimistic and then be let down if GWB loses.

The other thing I wonder about is I saw how a lot of the polls, such as Gallup, might only call 1000 different people to get their results for a state. Since 1000 is obviously only a small portion of the total number of people who will be voting, what's the process they use in determining who they are going to call in order to get an accurate sample of the whole state?
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:57:36 AM EST
Maryland is the only statistical tie. And I learned something.... D.C gets 3 electoral votes, same as Wyoming. That's despite having no Senators or voting Representatives.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 11:58:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 11:58:34 AM EST by NewbHunter]
One more thing...just out of curiosity, and of course for entertainment purposes only, what are the DUers saying about this website? What kinds of rational (or lacktherof) are they using to discredit it?

Post links please.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:02:17 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:04:04 PM EST
Goddamnit, we need PA to be solid Bush


- BG
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:10:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Actually they call far more than a 1,000 people. A good poll will spit out a list of names and numbers that are supposed to draw from various areas of the country proportionally to actual population distributions. A series of questions are asked, including those which are considered screening questions to identify likely political leaning, age, sex, occupation and likelihood of voting. This is done to ensure that the model does not have a disproportionate number of any particular demographic. The combination of random sampling coupled with "quotas" to ensure that the sample is representative of many defining characteristics results in a pool that can have a margin of error of +-3-4% depending upon sample size.

The problem comes when proper screening is not conducted, or questions are asked or ordered in such a way that it introduces a bias... something Zogby is notorious for, as is the American Research Group.



Thanks for the information.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:12:09 PM EST


That 'Master of the Obvious' pic almost made me whizz myself.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:18:31 PM EST
The guy that runs that site is pro skery, hope his map is right. Here's some of his b.s.


I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush). If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President's fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 12:25:58 PM EST
Didnt Reagan take EVERY state but minnesota against mondale?

Now that is an asskicking!
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 1:13:19 PM EST
AZ has Bush by only one point? BULLSHIT!
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 1:20:21 PM EST

Originally Posted By NevadaARshooter:
Lousy sticking Las Vegas (West kalifornia).


All your casinos belong to us.

CW
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 1:49:15 PM EST

Originally Posted By Greywolf2112:
AZ has Bush by only one point? BULLSHIT!



Yeah, especially after that crack smoking Teresa Heinz-Kerry b^&%$ spouted off "Oh well, who cares?" What a crack head.

The moan who wants to run the country for four years can't even get that b&!$# to keep her trap shut for 60 days.

Roll on George W.

Now, if we could just get California, New York and Illinois turned around.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 1:55:11 PM EST

Originally Posted By Lockedon:
"Weak Bush", "Strong Bush"...hehehehe



I like Bush!

BigDozer66
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 1:56:05 PM EST


BigDozer66
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:01:21 PM EST

This sure is confusing trying to predict what will happen. I don't think we'll know for sure until November.



Probably going to be another close one. Might not know until December.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:11:30 PM EST

Originally Posted By BigDozer66:

Originally Posted By Lockedon:
"Weak Bush", "Strong Bush"...hehehehe



I like Bush!

BigDozer66



yeah, but smell isn't everything...
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:14:25 PM EST

Originally Posted By nightstalker:
Maryland is the only statistical tie. And I learned something.... D.C gets 3 electoral votes, same as Wyoming. That's despite having no Senators or voting Representatives.



That's 3 free Kerry EC votes, from a city that if left to its own devices, would devolve into mayham, murder, and starvation.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:18:43 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/24/2004 2:19:09 PM EST by Fred-in-PA]
Here is another site devoted to the Electoral College. It isn't updated as frequently, but the numbers are close to Electoral-vote.com.

It is President Elect.org
The site also provides a break down on the election results all the way back to 1789. Very good stuff.

They are currently giving it to Bush with 305 to Kerry's 233.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:20:19 PM EST
If the election is close it will be the clusterfck of the century due to electronic voting madness. I read something like 30% of the electorate will be using machines (with no paper trail). Not even a recount will be possible.

I don't think the electoral-vote.com final prediction is very useful. It just follows a linear trend line for each state.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:20:22 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
The problem comes when proper screening is not conducted, or questions are asked or ordered in such a way that it introduces a bias... something Zogby is notorious for, as is the American Research Group.



I had heard that Zogby had been very accurate (way back when, listening to Rush). I also heard he was a Repub, but from what I've read lately he's been saying polls are skewed towards Repubs . . . something I doubt, productive people are less likely to get caught in a phone conversation at home, and are more likely to vote . . .
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:29:05 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 2:32:24 PM EST
Now that you mention it, I think I recall Zogby's CA recall predictions.
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 4:21:51 PM EST
Holy
PA... Get out there and tell everyone you know to vote BUSH (UMMMM BUSH)
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 5:20:42 PM EST

Originally Posted By 1776:
Didnt Reagan take EVERY state but minnesota against mondale?

Now that is an asskicking!



He even took Massachusetts......
Link Posted: 9/24/2004 9:43:31 PM EST
I read somewhere that Zogby is a Dem.
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