David Broder, THE WASHINGTON POST
Saturday, August 19, 2006

When The Columbus Dispatch's respected poll recently reported that Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was trailing Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland by 20 points in the race for governor of Ohio, there was dismay but no shock among his fellow Republicans. Those I interviewed during a recent visit said they had seen it coming for a long time.

But it is a political earthquake.


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Democrats have not been able to win a single statewide office in Ohio for most of the past decade — and are completely shut out of power in the capitol at this moment. Strickland has never run a statewide campaign and is trying to break a tradition that has kept any congressman from ever being elected as governor of Ohio. Blackwell has won election in Ohio and led the successful campaign that gave George Bush this state — and the presidency — over John Kerry in 2004.

And yet, when the Dispatch poll came out, the best that Blackwell could say was that his own internal surveys showed him trailing by only 11 points — as if that were a consolation. What I heard in Ohio — and in subsequent interviews at the National Governors Association convention in Charleston, S.C. — from one Republican after another signaled serious trouble for the GOP from Pennsylvania to Oklahoma in key midterm election contests for House, Senate and governor.

The impression these Republicans had is that support for GOP candidates had nose-dived this summer, in part because of the chaos conveyed by the daily televised scenes of destruction in Iraq and Lebanon, and in part because of the dismal reputation built by the Republican Congress that is home to many of the endangered GOP candidates.

It may be that the cease-fire in the Israel-Lebanon war and the shift of focus to the terrorist plot thwarted last week by the British will change the political environment. But Republicans were deeply worried as August began.

I had dinner one night with a group of Ohio Republicans, all with many years of experience in state politics and none directly engaged in this year's gubernatorial race. One of them said, "I'm afraid this could be another 1982," a year when recession pushed unemployment to 15 percent and cost the Republicans the governorship. Another said, "I'd settle right now for another 1982. I'm afraid it will be another 1974," the year of the Watergate election when Democrats swept everything in sight.

Ohio may be particularly vulnerable because the economy in parts of the state where the auto industry remains vital has been hurt by layoffs, and because a series of scandals have left retiring Gov. Bob Taft with approval ratings in the teens. But similar concerns are voiced across the Midwest.

A leading Minnesota Republican told me that polls there show "the bottom has dropped out" of Rep. Mark Kennedy's challenge to Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for an open Democratic Senate seat. Kennedy has company among the corps of Republican congressmen who thought this would be a good year to move up. In Wisconsin, Rep. Mark Green is lagging slightly behind Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle. In Oklahoma, Rep. Ernest Istook is far worse off in his challenge to Democratic Gov. Brad Henry. And in Iowa, Rep. Jim Nussle, the strong early favorite to capture the open governorship from the Democrats, now finds himself in a real battle with Democrat Chet Culver.

For all of them, service in this Congress has turned out to be a handicap, rather than a benefit, to their chances of advancement. The reason was explained in blunt terms by the Republican governor of one of the states where a congressman of his party is struggling for statewide office. "What has this Congress done that anyone should applaud?" he asked scornfully. "Nothing on immigration, nothing on health care, nothing on energy — and nothing on the war. They deserve a good kick in the pants, and that's what they're going to get."

That prediction is supported by the AP-Ipsos poll released last week. It showed a 33 percent job approval score for Bush and a 29 percent job approval score for the Republican Congress. On a test of voter preference for the midterm congressional election, Democrats had a staggering 18-point lead, 55 percent to 37 percent. You can see why Republicans are worried.

A leftist pundit claiming the leftists are going to win. Surprise, surprise.

The republicans have had most of the power for 6 years. That will change, it is a cycle. Plus we have showed too much weakness and made too many bad decisions, I think that will add to it. But with all the strife in the world, and democrats overt fear to take tough action, that will alleviate it some.JMO.

I"ve said it before, I'll say it again.
The republicans (aka the stupid party) are going to get CRUSHED in November
it's not even going to be close
and they brought it all on themselves

the conservative base is going to stay home and the democratic base is going to come out.
it won't be pretty and it won't be good for the country
but it is going to happen.

prepare now.

I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November.

Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November regardless of party. If a repub incumbent has a dem opponent, I'll vote for the dem.

SEE!!!!!!
what did I just say

the conservative base is going to stay home and the democratic base is going to come out.

more proof.

It's going to be ugly
and I don't disagree they deserve to lose.

Quoted: David Broder, THE WASHINGTON POST Saturday, August 19, 2006 When The Columbus Dispatch's respected poll recently reported that Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was trailing Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland by 20 points in the race for governor of Ohio, there was dismay but no shock among his fellow Republicans. Those I interviewed during a recent visit said they had seen it coming for a long time. But it is a political earthquake. MOST POPULAR STORIES McCoy looks entrenched as Texas' starting quarterback Longhorns send message: We can do it again Metro & State Briefing Texas football countdown to kickoff Gambling for leads Democrats have not been able to win a single statewide office in Ohio for most of the past decade — and are completely shut out of power in the capitol at this moment. Strickland has never run a statewide campaign and is trying to break a tradition that has kept any congressman from ever being elected as governor of Ohio. Blackwell has won election in Ohio and led the successful campaign that gave George Bush this state — and the presidency — over John Kerry in 2004. And yet, when the Dispatch poll came out, the best that Blackwell could say was that his own internal surveys showed him trailing by only 11 points — as if that were a consolation. What I heard in Ohio — and in subsequent interviews at the National Governors Association convention in Charleston, S.C. — from one Republican after another signaled serious trouble for the GOP from Pennsylvania to Oklahoma in key midterm election contests for House, Senate and governor. The impression these Republicans had is that support for GOP candidates had nose-dived this summer, in part because of the chaos conveyed by the daily televised scenes of destruction in Iraq and Lebanon, and in part because of the dismal reputation built by the Republican Congress that is home to many of the endangered GOP candidates. It may be that the cease-fire in the Israel-Lebanon war and the shift of focus to the terrorist plot thwarted last week by the British will change the political environment. But Republicans were deeply worried as August began. I had dinner one night with a group of Ohio Republicans, all with many years of experience in state politics and none directly engaged in this year's gubernatorial race. One of them said, "I'm afraid this could be another 1982," a year when recession pushed unemployment to 15 percent and cost the Republicans the governorship. Another said, "I'd settle right now for another 1982. I'm afraid it will be another 1974," the year of the Watergate election when Democrats swept everything in sight. Ohio may be particularly vulnerable because the economy in parts of the state where the auto industry remains vital has been hurt by layoffs, and because a series of scandals have left retiring Gov. Bob Taft with approval ratings in the teens. But similar concerns are voiced across the Midwest. A leading Minnesota Republican told me that polls there show "the bottom has dropped out" of Rep. Mark Kennedy's challenge to Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for an open Democratic Senate seat. Kennedy has company among the corps of Republican congressmen who thought this would be a good year to move up. In Wisconsin, Rep. Mark Green is lagging slightly behind Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle. In Oklahoma, Rep. Ernest Istook is far worse off in his challenge to Democratic Gov. Brad Henry. And in Iowa, Rep. Jim Nussle, the strong early favorite to capture the open governorship from the Democrats, now finds himself in a real battle with Democrat Chet Culver. For all of them, service in this Congress has turned out to be a handicap, rather than a benefit, to their chances of advancement. The reason was explained in blunt terms by the Republican governor of one of the states where a congressman of his party is struggling for statewide office. "What has this Congress done that anyone should applaud?" he asked scornfully. "Nothing on immigration, nothing on health care, nothing on energy — and nothing on the war. They deserve a good kick in the pants, and that's what they're going to get." That prediction is supported by the AP-Ipsos poll released last week. It showed a 33 percent job approval score for Bush and a 29 percent job approval score for the Republican Congress. On a test of voter preference for the midterm congressional election, Democrats had a staggering 18-point lead, 55 percent to 37 percent. You can see why Republicans are worried.

The Dispatch is a leftist rag and the 90% of the reporters there are illiterate liberal hacks.  I have no doubt that Blackwell is trailing in Columbus.  Columbus is a liberal dope smoking, Birkenstock wearing, hepmfest town.  The city is dying and the liberals are doing everything they can to kill it faster.  The only good thing is that there are no Republicans on the city council to blame for its failures.  The only thing keeping Columbus going is that most people that work there don't live there, they live in the suburbs.  Now unfortunately some of the suburbs have been annexed (like mine) but most of the residents of the city of Columbus are either firmly attached to the teet of Uncle Sugar or as liberal as the day is long and they were never going to even consider voting Republican because that might get them removed from the teet.

More PREDICTIONS about the future , what is going to happen, from the left. More like what they wish would happen. The last election was supposed to be a great upset.
They keep trying to steer the outcome by telling us whats going to happen, what we are going to do --since obvoulsly we are sitting around waiting for them to tell us, them being so smart and all.
"we polled 1000(democtratic ) voters and 90 percent of those are going to vote democratic"
WOW
Just Wow.

In the past years I have heard more BS from these idiots NONE of which has come true. Given thier track record I cant take anything that comes from the left seriously. They have made themselves into a gross carcature if a political party. It'd be funny if it werent so sad.

Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November.

So.

You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office?

Liberal Pundit says liberals are going to win this fall.  Who'd a thunk it.

Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office?

his point is that there is no point in eating the shit sandwich and convincing himself it's prime rib...

The Republicans, who have become the party of big government programs and la reconquista, need to spend a few years in the wilderness so they can learn to appreciate their base.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office? his point is that there is no point in eating the shit sandwich and convincing himself it's prime rib... The Republicans, who have become the party of big government programs and la reconquista, need to spend a few years in the wilderness so they can learn to appreciate their base.

Really really bad idea there.  You have no idea how bad it can get under the democrats.  And believe me, the current democratic party is batshit crazy liberal.  If you end up owning any firearms at all after they get in office, consider yourself lucky.

You have been warned.  Don't come whining back here if you get your way.

Realistically, the liberals and their news media allies are gunning for more political power, but in reality the sheepeople are really concerned about terrorism.  The libs are trying to negiotate with the other side, and they isn't going to fly too well with Mister and Misses America.  Ever since the 9-11-01 WTC/Pentagon Attack, the Dems haven't been able to get much traciton politically, and this year will be no different.  No matter how the news media spins the humanitarian, the poor etc aspects of the world, terrorism will be the watchword.

Witness the fact of the House voting on a non-binding resolution against the war in Iraq, only one Congressman voted for it and it was in a super-safe Democratic district.  The news media's ability to "spin" news events has been greatly diminished due to the internet.  The media can be outed in the matter of hours, whereas in the past it would take weeks or months.

Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office?

Doesn't sound like a good idea does it?

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office? his point is that there is no point in eating the shit sandwich and convincing himself it's prime rib... The Republicans, who have become the party of big government programs and la reconquista, need to spend a few years in the wilderness so they can learn to appreciate their base.

I understood his point.

His point is wrong.

I remember how it was under Democrats in office.  I remember the Assault Weapon Ban.  I remember the 10 round magazine limit.  I remember the continual, and almost successful, try to ban gun shows.  I remember much, much more.

My Dad used to call it, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face."

If we "get mad" at Republicans, and don't vote, and let the Democrats take office, we are the ones that are going to lose our Second Amendment Rights.

We'll show them!

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office? his point is that there is no point in eating the shit sandwich and convincing himself it's prime rib... The Republicans, who have become the party of big government programs and la reconquista, need to spend a few years in the wilderness so they can learn to appreciate their base. Really really bad idea there.  You have no idea how bad it can get under the democrats.  And believe me, the current democratic party is batshit crazy liberal.  If you end up owning any firearms at all after they get in office, consider yourself lucky. You have been warned.  Don't come whining back here if you get your way.

First, let me address Old_Painless. The answer to your question is yes. Repubilcans have had control of fed.gov for over 5 years now and NFA34, GCA68, Volkmer Amedment, and the property confiscation laws are still intact. Even the death tax is still intact.  Don't tell me the the repubs are my friends.

DigDug:
It will not be luck that ensures that my firearms are still in my possession when/if the dems get back in the majority. It will be due to my refusal to submit to tyranny. You can do as you see fit. I will do the same.
I have been an American for 40 years now. I now exactly what things are like when the dems control fed.gov.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. So. You're just going to let the liberal gun-grabbers take office? his point is that there is no point in eating the shit sandwich and convincing himself it's prime rib... The Republicans, who have become the party of big government programs and la reconquista, need to spend a few years in the wilderness so they can learn to appreciate their base. I understood his point. His point is wrong. I remember how it was under Democrats in office.  I remember the Assault Weapon Ban.  I remember the 10 round magazine limit.  I remember the continual, and almost successful, try to ban gun shows.  I remember much, much more. My Dad used to call it, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face." If we "get mad" at Republicans, and don't vote, and let the Democrats take office, we are the ones that are going to lose our Second Amendment Rights. We'll show them!

Seriously.......the place to show the incumbants is in the primaries.

Quoted: First, let me address Old_Painless. The answer to your question is yes. Repubilcans have had control of fed.gov for over 5 years now and NFA34, GCA68, Volkmer Amedment, and the property confiscation laws are still intact. Even the death tax is still intact.  Don't tell me the the repubs are my friends.

Let's be clear, HBR, we have no "friends" in Washington.

The question is:  Who will do us the most harm?

The answer is the Demoncrats.

There is simply not enough of a majority to pass the repeal of those laws you listed.  And many RINOs don't want to repeal them anyway.

The other question is: Are there worse laws that can be passed under Demoncrats?

Answer:  You bet.

DigDug: It will not be luck that ensures that my firearms are still in my possession when/if the dems get back in the majority. It will be due to my refusal to submit to tyranny. You can do as you see fit. I will do the same. I have been an American for 40 years now. I now exactly what things are like when the dems control fed.gov.

That's mighty tough talk on the internet.  But "I'll just break the law" isn't a reasonable policy, nor the best policy.

There would be no reason to break the law if we simply do not let more bad laws get passed.  The best way to prevent that is to vote for the "most conservative" candidates.

Not "perfect" candidates.  "Most conservative" candidates.

And, if you truly understand "what things are like when the dems control fed.gov.", you already ought to agree with me.

I don't see why we should support a party on a single issue.

With the Repubs, we don't lose (much) more 2nd Amendment ground, but we haven't gained much, either.  Woo-hoo, sunset of a ban that had no support, anyways.  In return, we get the Patriot Act, the Department of Fatherland, er, Homeland Security, warrantless wiretapping, complete loss of control of our southern border and the dumping of criminal trash from third-world countries, record national debt with the acompanying erosion of the dollar and an economy in the crapper, and criminally inept leadership that led to our being bogged down in an interminable insurgency that any kindergardener could have forseen.

With the Dems, we have to fight to hold ground on the 2nd Amendment issue, but from the way they make noise about the rest of the stuff I listed above, maybe they would have thought twice before implementing any of it.  Of course, we will have to suffer increased taxes to pay for social programs and even more social programming to "empower" gays, women and minorities.

Or, maybe, we can all get fed up with the two-party process that has turned our country into a socialist shitter-for-the-third-world and form another party that will take back our government and return it to the values that grew us into the only surviving superpower.

I don't see a present third party that could do that, but Americans have done it before.  Just not in the last 120 years or so.

Well . .

don't know about the elections on the national level, but here in Ohio the RINO's are gonna get HAMMERED  ! !  

Back-stabbing Bobby is a CONVICTED crook, kept his cronnies in office when they were stealing the state blind, and all the RION's have done is lie, lie lie  ! !

I like Blackwell, but really doubt at this point in the game that he has a snowball's chance in winning.    

The Senate can't even pass a reformed CCW bill here in Ohio -- and it passed the House by more than 70 percent  !   Back-stabbing Bobby says "NO ! ! " so right now the Bill is DEAD, just like the Party  ! !  And pi$$-off 80,000 CCW holders  !   Even the Dem running for office says "Pass the Bill  ! ! "

I live in central Ohio, in a very conservitive area, and most VOTERS are just plain fed-up with the RINO's "I'm just gonna stay home -- they'll lie to us anyway  ! "

If the Party had 'nads, they throw B-S Bobby out of office and show that they are SERIOUS ! !

Just ain't gonna happen . . . .

It was the Democrats in power that passed the Hughes Amendment in 1986.

The US Senate was Republican controlled then and they passed the version of FOPA 1986 that the NRA and gun owners wanted.

It was the Democrat controlled House that forced a watered  down bill to be passed with the Hughes Amendment (machine gun freeze).

CRC

Quoted: It was the Democrats in power that passed the Hughes Amendment in 1986. The US Senate was Republican controlled then and they passed the version of FOPA 1986 that the NRA and gun owners wanted. It was the Democrat controlled House that forced a watered  down bill to be passed with the Hughes Amendment (machine gun freeze). CRC

And, ahem, a Republican president who signed it...

I've been seeing a lot more than just the leftist pundits with studies showing that support for Republicans is trailing off.  Die hard fans dismiss it as liberal propaganda, but it doesn't sound good for them.  I suspect they will reinvigorate the immigration issue and pretend to take a hard stance until they are elected.  Then it's back to Medicare for the world!

Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November.

There we have it folks.. we are quitting because we don't like the game...

Don't expect us to love you for this if the Democrats should win..

Quoted: Quoted: It was the Democrats in power that passed the Hughes Amendment in 1986. The US Senate was Republican controlled then and they passed the version of FOPA 1986 that the NRA and gun owners wanted. It was the Democrat controlled House that forced a watered  down bill to be passed with the Hughes Amendment (machine gun freeze). CRC And, ahem, a Republican president who signed it...

And the Dems had the votes to override any veto....  

Quoted: Quoted: I have voted Repub since the second term of Ronald Reagan. I am no longer a party voter. I will not vote for an incumbent this November. There we have it folks.. we are quitting because we don't like the game... Don't expect us to love you for this if the Democrats should win..

Yep.

And don't forget people, we are at war.

Anyoner remember the democratic stance on terrorism during the 90's?

That's what got us where we are today.

Don't be fucking stupid and let it happen again.

I wonder if the GOP is going to lose as big as everyone said they would lose in 2000, 2002, and 2004? Or is 2006 going to be an even bigger loss?

The Dems are already whining the Republicans are suppressing the black vote by requiring some proof of US residency to vote.

I just read an article someplace the last few days that stated that the GOP is collecting election donations at a 3:1 ratio over the Democrats.