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Posted: 9/1/2005 11:06:38 PM EDT
Will we follow the storyline of the movie Oil Storm and have empty store shelves, riots, martial law and a depression, or will the oil shortage be short term, but the region the storm hit will have an economic downturn? Will people die when winter comes, because of fuel oil prices like in Oil Storm, or will the problems we are now seeing at the pumps amount to nothing more than a speed bump?
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:13:56 PM EDT
Home insurance rates and policies will be... interesting.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:19:37 PM EDT
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:19:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/1/2005 11:20:00 PM EDT by dpmmn]
I never knew there was a shortage of oil, just an overage of gouging and greed
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:24:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By dpmmn:
I never knew there was a shortage of oil, just an overage of gouging and greed



The pipelines are down, becaues the electrical power infrastructure in Mississippi has been destroyed. Tanker trunks carry a small fraction of what the pipelines carry. If the pipelines don't get operational within the next ten days, major cities will run completely out of gas. I don't see the pipelines getting back online within ten days. Gas will probably reach 6-9 dollars per gallon. Visits to the gas stations in many cities will get very ugly. Trucking will grind to a halt. The Labor Day weekend will not help the situation at all......... it is going to get very, very ugly in the next week and a half.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:25:29 PM EDT
Depression??
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:26:51 PM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

Originally Posted By dpmmn:
I never knew there was a shortage of oil, just an overage of gouging and greed



The pipelines are down, becaues the electrical power infrastructure in Mississippi has been destroyed. Tanker trunks carry a small fraction of what the pipelines carry. If the pipelines don't get operational within the next ten days, major cities will run completely out of gas. I don't see the pipelines getting back online within ten days. Gas will probably reach 6-9 dollars per gallon. Visits to the gas stations in many cities will get very ugly. Trucking will grind to a halt. The Labor Day weekend will not help the situation at all......... it is going to get very, very ugly in the next week and a half.





10% of refining capacity is down from what I heard on the news...........I am going sticking with gouging and greed from the oil companies and their executives
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:29:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/1/2005 11:32:10 PM EDT by jkstexas2001]
Yes. Empty store shelves, etc. Releasing the Strategic Oil Reserve is largely symbolic.. Why? EVEN IF ALL HE REFINERIES BECOME OPERATIONAL, they can't pump the gasoline to the cities, and trucking the gas will make very little difference. Riots in some places, higher prices on everything that is trucked (food, hardware, building supplies). Domino effect. Maybe even martial law in some cities. Food riots, etc. Looting, etc. DPMNN - the refineries won't be able to get the gasoline to the cities without the pipelines working.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:31:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/1/2005 11:32:03 PM EDT by EPOCH96]
My 5.56 ammo will increase 3 fold

Investing in a badass water filtrator/purifier. None of this $30-$40 stuff anymore

Will probably sell my Dakota R/T with the 5.9L V8 for a smaller SUV with V6

Picking up a few case of MRE's for the closet.

EPOCH


ETA: what's going to happen to the nation? No clue...
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:31:41 PM EDT
Some people will die.
While eating his weight in Ho-Hos and Twinkies, Michael Moore will blame Bush for not predicting it.
John Kerry will say he would have done it entirely differently, but won't say what he would have done.
We will pay more at the pump.
The ROPers will tell us that it was Allah's punishment.
People everywhere will start preparing for a disaster like this one, and many greedy businesses will rape them monetarily.
Each network will have a made for TV movie about the disaster. This will spawn 3 more disaster movies. They will all suck.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:32:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?



It will last however long it takes to get the rigs in the gulf working again, last I heard there were over 800 production platforms out of commission.

Plus the ports will have to be repaired and oil transfer facilities rebuilt, plus the refineries themselves that have been put out of commission.

All in all an awfull lot of work, I have not heard any real estimates from any DC officials as to how long all this will take, but whatever they do estimate I'd multiply it times two or three and that might get us in the ball park.

So if Bush says six months to get it all up and running, you better believe it will take 12 to 18 months in reality.....(Thats just my .02 cents, ymmv).....
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:33:57 PM EDT
Construction materials will be in short supply and over priced. Cost of new homes will rise. Cost of exisiting homes will rise.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:34:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By AZMAN-1:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?



It will last however long it takes to get the rigs in the gulf working again, last I heard there were over 800 production platforms out of commission.

Plus the ports will have to be repaired and oil transfer facilities rebuilt, plus the refineries themselves that have been put out of commission.

All in all an awfull lot of work, I have not heard any real estimates from any DC officials as to how long all this will take, but whatever they do estimate I'd multiply it times two or three and that might get us in the ball park.

So if Bush says six months to get it all up and running, you better believe it will take 12 to 18 months in reality.....(Thats just my .02 cents, ymmv).....



If it takes 6-12 months to get it all working again, and the pumps that pump the gas down the pipeline remain down because southern Mississippi no longer has an electrical infrastructure, and cities have on average a 10-day supply of gas ...... we are f*cked.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:34:38 PM EDT
Bush will be impeached for first creating the hurricane and then for doing NOTHING about it.

Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:39:54 PM EDT
I think if you let the market work people will conserve and demand will drop while at the same time other markets will try and fill the void (oil). The hurricane damage will be dealt with, it is already starting, tommorow there will be troops on the ground and order will start to be restored. We are all Americans and we will fix this problem we always have and always will.
Link Posted: 9/1/2005 11:42:54 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/1/2005 11:43:23 PM EDT by jkstexas2001]
I am all for letting the market run its course, but the market cannot magically create gasoline in cities when the pipelines are down. The physical reality is that Atlanta and other cities are going to run out of gas, and while they'll try to use tanker trucks to fill the gap, its like trying to fill a bucket with an eyedropper. We are in serious trouble.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:23:48 AM EDT
bump
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:24:56 AM EDT
Not a damn thing, it will simply be a number in 6 months.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:32:43 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:33:54 AM EDT
My prediction: the Texas economy will get stronger. CA screws up their power grid, TX makes money. Iraq screws up their 'gubment, TX makes more money. LA screws up disaster preparation, TX makes even more money. Texas, we're the Lone Star state so we make sure we can stand alone. That means lesser regions of the country and around the world can pay us to get 'er done when bad things happen.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:36:45 AM EDT
The water level in NO will go down, fires will start, NO will burn to the ground.

Refugees will become a local, state and national political problem with the FEMA head resigning, mayor of NO, La gov and Jesse Jackson calling for Bush's impeachment.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:37:06 AM EDT
you wont be able to give SUVs and large PUs away.

interest rates will go up.

prolly some inflation.

prolly bring the housing bubble to a pop sooner than later (this is good).

demos have just been handled a golden egg. can they run with it? donno.. most of their current players are kooks with a small but very vocal following. can the republicans hold the line.. dunno.. no star players.. the lineup of talking heads would put a crackhead to sleep.

pain is good.. there are lots of good lessons to be learned from this... will we learn?
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:39:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 5:41:55 AM EDT by NewbHunter]

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

Originally Posted By AZMAN-1:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?



It will last however long it takes to get the rigs in the gulf working again, last I heard there were over 800 production platforms out of commission.

Plus the ports will have to be repaired and oil transfer facilities rebuilt, plus the refineries themselves that have been put out of commission.

All in all an awfull lot of work, I have not heard any real estimates from any DC officials as to how long all this will take, but whatever they do estimate I'd multiply it times two or three and that might get us in the ball park.

So if Bush says six months to get it all up and running, you better believe it will take 12 to 18 months in reality.....(Thats just my .02 cents, ymmv).....



If it takes 6-12 months to get it all working again, and the pumps that pump the gas down the pipeline remain down because southern Mississippi no longer has an electrical infrastructure, and cities have on average a 10-day supply of gas ...... we are f*cked.



According to our local news here in WI, the upper midwest gets almost all of it's gas from refineries in the midwest and Canada. We apparantly do not rely that much on the oil pipelines in the south...or so they said on the news. I haven't verified that for myself.

However, I agree. This is going to get VERY ugly. I said it on Tuesday and I'll say it again. I don't think that the media or the average American has fully realized or grasped the enormity of the devistation and the lasting effects this storm has caused. The next few days and weeks are going to get interesting...
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:43:50 AM EDT
Massive overstocks of grain due to inability to transport out of Port of New Orleans. Empty rail cars will jam the ports of Portland, Seattle, Philadelphia, Tampa, etc...

Concrete and steel prices will continue to climb, while deliveries are extended - some indefinately.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:44:03 AM EDT
I think things are going to slow down a bit. Gas will spike, and there will be some localized, short-term disruptions of the supply lines.

.GOV will ease environmental restrictions, and under pressure, the legislature will start telling the envirowhackos that they don't care about the mating habits of the red caribou.

I think there will be some new refinery initiatives started, but I also think there will be a migration towards renewable energy. Expect new tax credit programs for geo-thermal and solar systems for water/heating.

US auto makers will take another competitive hit as they are not tooled up for economy car production.

You'll be able to buy SUVs and F-250s for pennies on the dollar.

I believe you're going to see a slight downswing in areas like fast food, restaurants, hospitality. People will start eating at home again -- packing lunches more often.

I think a major political battle will erupt over rebuilding efforts. Lawsuits will start to fly.

Yoiu may also see some subsidized TVA style rebuild effort programs to put refugees back into the economy again.

Gun control advocates will be shouted down. This has been good for gun rights. I haven't heard a single person advocate the removal of firearms -- but plenty of the opposite.

Katrina cost the Dems the next election. People will start to unravel the truths in the matter, and see that liberal social reform is at the root of the social disaster.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:44:08 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Yes. Empty store shelves, etc. Releasing the Strategic Oil Reserve is largely symbolic.. Why? EVEN IF ALL HE REFINERIES BECOME OPERATIONAL, they can't pump the gasoline to the cities, and trucking the gas will make very little difference. Riots in some places, higher prices on everything that is trucked (food, hardware, building supplies). Domino effect. Maybe even martial law in some cities. Food riots, etc. Looting, etc. DPMNN - the refineries won't be able to get the gasoline to the cities without the pipelines working.



You are mistaken here. There are two different types of pipelines. Ones that bring unrefined crude into the refineries and ones that pumps refined product to the tank farms for distribution. The refined pipelines are up and running. Do a google for Colonial Pipeline.

How do I know this? I used to be a pipeline scheduler.

What is down:
1. The LOOP which brings crude into refineries from oil platforms in the gulf. It also brings crude in from tankers that dock offshore.
2. Eight refieneries in the affected area.

As long as we can keep the current refineries running at peak capacity and stocked with crude, we should not see a major shortage. The price will go up. But it won't be a SHTF.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 5:54:02 AM EDT
A portion of the original population of New Orleans that are evacuated will end up finding work and settling in their "new hometowns" and N.O. will be alot smaller when eventually able to be resettled.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 6:04:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 6:05:04 AM EDT by Greywolf2112]

Originally Posted By SgtKiwi:
A portion of the original population of New Orleans that are evacuated will end up finding work welfare checks and settling in their "new hometowns" and N.O. will be alot smaller when eventually able to be resettled.



Fixed it for ya.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 6:15:17 AM EDT
Congress will start making plans to "compensate" refugees with billions of federal dollars.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 6:16:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 6:21:51 AM EDT by California_Kid]
The water won't be all pumped out until mid-December. There will be many fires. The gulf coast will be threatened by 3-5 more tropical systems before hurricane season is over. Each storm will be closely watched and some will cause panic.

Mardi Gras 2006 will be a blast in spite of the ruined state of the city. Women will flash their breasts. People will put on their beer goggles and burble on drunkenly about how the spirit of the city will never die, blah blah blah.

Whole neighborhoods will be bulldozed and covered over with several feet of fill before anyone even thinks about starting to rebuild.

Many of the displaced people will stay in other cities like Houston. The sudden demographic shift will threaten east Texas' way of life.

The US economy will take a beating from incresed fuel prices. If the federal and state governments can resist the temptation to mess with the market, things will balance out by next summer as people are forced to conserve. Supplies will improve, prices will drop.

The levy system will eventually be improved and some NO residents will rebuild. The smart ones will learn to prepare better for storms. The city will create a better system for evacuating elderly, disabled, and sick people who can't care for themselves.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 6:16:51 AM EDT
I am starting to see MORE AND MORE SUVs and large pickups on the road.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 7:11:27 AM EDT
There will be riots in NO and Houston in the next 10 days if the masses are not evac'd and put into clean shelters.

Politicians will play the blame game and form "blue ribbon commissions" full of partisans whose job it will be to blame the response fiasco all on the opposite political party.

They will send billions and billions of taxpayer dollars to the corrupt governments of LA and NO, where demolition and construction contracts will be awarded to cronies. Not much of anything will get demo'd or rebuilt, but cronies and local pols will have nice vacation homes, cars and the people and the city won't get shit.

The media and democrats will blame the federal govt - Bush specifically - for everything bad, and at the same time show their absolute ignorance and contempt of American federalism and how it works.

Gov Blanco will become the next Cindy Sheehan-screech-hag for the media and the democrats, deflecting criticism of her own incompetence and uselessness by claiming to be a victim, feeble woman, and oppressed person that is being attacked by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Another hurricane will hit the NO area.

Another strong hurricane will hit the US East coast sometime in the fall.

Gasoline at $3 a gallon will be considered "cheap" from here on out.

Democrats will scream for the .gov to put price controls on gas. Their .gov-school educated constituents and media will scream in agreement. Spinless republicans in congress will follow suit - fearing the elections.

There will be gas shortages from price controls, since the market was not allowed to work.

Recession and inflation loom. Jimmy Carter warms up for his return.

ANWR will be approved for drilling. Enviros will challenge every stage of construction/development in courts, making the approval useless. Spineless republicans in congress will not challenge the enviros - fearing the elections.

Al Qaeda will try and hit us while we're down. Probably energy infrastructure in east Texas.

Bush will push for refineries to be built around the country to mitigate energy risk. He will propose auctioning off old military base land to oil companies to build refineries. The enviros, media and NIMBYS will scream in opposition. Spineless republicans in congress will do nothing - fearing the elections. We will not have new refineries.

ARFCOM will raise an army, rescue the citizens of Wyoming, declare it "The Black Rifle Republic" (TBRR) and secede from the the United States of America (Socialist).

I'll fill you in on the rest after six months pass.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 7:15:17 AM EDT
More gun laws. More gun owners cheering on the use of the military against civilians in LE ventures. Are a few that come to mind.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 7:31:18 AM EDT

Originally Posted By qualityhardware:
There will be riots in NO and Houston in the next 10 days if the masses are not evac'd and put into clean shelters.

Politicians will play the blame game and form "blue ribbon commissions" full of partisans whose job it will be to blame the response fiasco all on the opposite political party.

They will send billions and billions of taxpayer dollars to the corrupt governments of LA and NO, where demolition and construction contracts will be awarded to cronies. Not much of anything will get demo'd or rebuilt, but cronies and local pols will have nice vacation homes, cars and the people and the city won't get shit.

The media and democrats will blame the federal govt - Bush specifically - for everything bad, and at the same time show their absolute ignorance and contempt of American federalism and how it works.

Gov Blanco will become the next Cindy Sheehan-screech-hag for the media and the democrats, deflecting criticism of her own incompetence and uselessness by claiming to be a victim, feeble woman, and oppressed person that is being attacked by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Another hurricane will hit the NO area.

Another strong hurricane will hit the US East coast sometime in the fall.

Gasoline at $3 a gallon will be considered "cheap" from here on out.

Democrats will scream for the .gov to put price controls on gas. Their .gov-school educated constituents and media will scream in agreement. Spinless republicans in congress will follow suit - fearing the elections.

There will be gas shortages from price controls, since the market was not allowed to work.

Recession and inflation loom. Jimmy Carter warms up for his return.

ANWR will be approved for drilling. Enviros will challenge every stage of construction/development in courts, making the approval useless. Spineless republicans in congress will not challenge the enviros - fearing the elections.

Al Qaeda will try and hit us while we're down. Probably energy infrastructure in east Texas.

Bush will push for refineries to be built around the country to mitigate energy risk. He will propose auctioning off old military base land to oil companies to build refineries. The enviros, media and NIMBYS will scream in opposition. Spineless republicans in congress will do nothing - fearing the elections. We will not have new refineries.

ARFCOM will raise an army, rescue the citizens of Wyoming, declare it "The Black Rifle Republic" (TBRR) and secede from the the United States of America (Socialist).

I'll fill you in on the rest after six months pass.



I think you are dead-on and the Republicans lacking spines WILL drop the ball. The Democrats will kick and scream at every suggestion because any thing good that can be done while the Repubs are in charge is bad for Democrats politically so they will obstruct the process. I vote for the new TBRR capitol to be in Jackson Hole and that government meetings be held at the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 7:31:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 7:35:43 AM EDT by The_Macallan]

1) New gun-laws will be proposed that mandate that all firearms stocked in gunstores be stored INOPERABLE and only one firearm at a time per working saleperson be allowed to be made "operable" to show to customers.

2) Condi Rice will lose a MAJOR part of the black vote in 2008 that she was supposed to have locked up. She blew it bigtime going to the Monty Python "Spamalot" show while New Orleans spiralled into anarchy and desperation. She should have been front and center arranging relief aide from our international allies in a very public way. Instead, now she'll be tagged (even moreso) as an "oreo" who's utterly detached from "her" people - especially when they needed her the most.

3) Congress will convene a special investigation into Hurricane Katrina and the Gov'ts response (much like the 9-11 hearings). Only this one will be stacked against the GWBush administration and Republicans and be VERY biased, extremely politicized and blatantly agendized and all timed to do maximum damage to both the 06 and 08 elections. Repubs will likely lose some southern Congressional seats and the Presidency.

4) The Dems, media & Hollywood will successfully use this as a wedge to break up the Republican domination of the Southern states in 2008.

5) The Kyoto Treaty will rise again.

Link Posted: 9/2/2005 7:55:14 AM EDT

Originally Posted By qualityhardware:
There will be riots in NO and Houston in the next 10 days if the masses are not evac'd and put into clean shelters.

Politicians will play the blame game and form "blue ribbon commissions" full of partisans whose job it will be to blame the response fiasco all on the opposite political party.

They will send billions and billions of taxpayer dollars to the corrupt governments of LA and NO, where demolition and construction contracts will be awarded to cronies. Not much of anything will get demo'd or rebuilt, but cronies and local pols will have nice vacation homes, cars and the people and the city won't get shit.

The media and democrats will blame the federal govt - Bush specifically - for everything bad, and at the same time show their absolute ignorance and contempt of American federalism and how it works.

Gov Blanco will become the next Cindy Sheehan-screech-hag for the media and the democrats, deflecting criticism of her own incompetence and uselessness by claiming to be a victim, feeble woman, and oppressed person that is being attacked by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Another hurricane will hit the NO area.

Another strong hurricane will hit the US East coast sometime in the fall.

Gasoline at $3 a gallon will be considered "cheap" from here on out.

Democrats will scream for the .gov to put price controls on gas. Their .gov-school educated constituents and media will scream in agreement. Spinless republicans in congress will follow suit - fearing the elections.

There will be gas shortages from price controls, since the market was not allowed to work.

Recession and inflation loom. Jimmy Carter warms up for his return.

ANWR will be approved for drilling. Enviros will challenge every stage of construction/development in courts, making the approval useless. Spineless republicans in congress will not challenge the enviros - fearing the elections.

Al Qaeda will try and hit us while we're down. Probably energy infrastructure in east Texas.

Bush will push for refineries to be built around the country to mitigate energy risk. He will propose auctioning off old military base land to oil companies to build refineries. The enviros, media and NIMBYS will scream in opposition. Spineless republicans in congress will do nothing - fearing the elections. We will not have new refineries.

ARFCOM will raise an army, rescue the citizens of Wyoming, declare it "The Black Rifle Republic" (TBRR) and secede from the the United States of America (Socialist).

I'll fill you in on the rest after six months pass.



Your prediction has the feel of being accurate -- I like that last part, where do I sign up?
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 8:06:42 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Your prediction has the feel of being accurate -- I like that last part, where do I sign up?



I'll see if GoatBoy will let me start an "ARFCOM Liberation Army" sign-up thread, and we'll get it rolling.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:40:02 AM EDT
Can anyone verify or confirm the status of the pipelines, and provide an ETA on when they'll be back operational. This is an area I know relatively little about, and I don't know where to find this information.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:41:33 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Can anyone verify or confirm the status of the pipelines, and provide an ETA on when they'll be back operational. This is an area I know relatively little about, and I don't know where to find this information.


Heard they are already running just not 100%
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:43:21 AM EDT

Originally Posted By olyarms:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Can anyone verify or confirm the status of the pipelines, and provide an ETA on when they'll be back operational. This is an area I know relatively little about, and I don't know where to find this information.


Heard they are already running just not 100%



Yep... heard they were running again at about 50%.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:43:40 AM EDT

Originally Posted By olyarms:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Can anyone verify or confirm the status of the pipelines, and provide an ETA on when they'll be back operational. This is an area I know relatively little about, and I don't know where to find this information.


Heard they are already running just not 100%



I also heard they were running at diminished capacity, using gas powered generators, but not able to provide enough gas to meet demands. I wish there was a resource I could check to find out the true situation about this.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:47:46 AM EDT

Gasoline at $3 a gallon will be considered "cheap" from here on out.

Democrats will scream for the .gov to put price controls on gas. Their .gov-school educated constituents and media will scream in agreement. Spinless republicans in congress will follow suit - fearing the elections.

There will be gas shortages from price controls, since the market was not allowed to work



After price control induced fuel shortages, white folks will begin to riot.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:51:04 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Q3131A:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
Yes. Empty store shelves, etc. Releasing the Strategic Oil Reserve is largely symbolic.. Why? EVEN IF ALL HE REFINERIES BECOME OPERATIONAL, they can't pump the gasoline to the cities, and trucking the gas will make very little difference. Riots in some places, higher prices on everything that is trucked (food, hardware, building supplies). Domino effect. Maybe even martial law in some cities. Food riots, etc. Looting, etc. DPMNN - the refineries won't be able to get the gasoline to the cities without the pipelines working.



You are mistaken here. There are two different types of pipelines. Ones that bring unrefined crude into the refineries and ones that pumps refined product to the tank farms for distribution. The refined pipelines are up and running. Do a google for Colonial Pipeline.

How do I know this? I used to be a pipeline scheduler.

What is down:
1. The LOOP which brings crude into refineries from oil platforms in the gulf. It also brings crude in from tankers that dock offshore.
2. Eight refieneries in the affected area.

As long as we can keep the current refineries running at peak capacity and stocked with crude, we should not see a major shortage. The price will go up. But it won't be a SHTF.



ARE YOU SURE -- This contradicts what you are saying:


www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3332630


This article tells about the pipeline problem that supplies fuel to the east coast areas.

Quote from another article.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners said its pipeline delivering gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from Louisiana to Washington remained shut because of a power outage at a pumping station in Mississippi. The company said it is trying to obtain generators to restore minimal service on the line.

Supplies to the Midwest, Northeast and other areas are similarly threatened or delayed by power outages, despite the return of a smattering of undamaged Gulf oil facilities to production yesterday.
Aug. 31, 2005, 2:59PM

KATRINA: THE AFTERMATH
Gasoline supply crimped
10 refineries closed or slowed; two big pipelines are out of action
By TOM FOWLER,, DAVID IVANOVICH and JOHN C. ROPER
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle
HURRICANE KATRINA

Flooded refineries and inoperable pipelines along the Gulf Coast are creating gasoline shortages in two states, driving energy prices to record levels and sending pump prices climbing toward the $3-a-gallon mark.

As many as 10 refineries, accounting for about 10 percent of the U.S. refining capacity, were either out of commission or running at reduced capacity Tuesday.

And power outages along the Gulf Coast shut down two huge pipelines that ship close to 3 million barrels a day of gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil and other products from Texas to New York.

Gasoline and diesel supplies ran out at some wholesale terminals in Arkansas and Tennessee on Tuesday, while rationing was seen in Ohio and South Carolina, said Dan Gilligan, president of the Petroleum Marketers Association of America.

In his seven years with the association, Gilligan said he had never seen supplies run out like this.

"When something like this happens, it's like a tourniquet on the entire country," he said.


With gasoline inventories running well below average, Katrina's squeeze led traders to bid futures prices up 20 percent to a record $2.47 a gallon.

But what may be more disturbing is that Tuesday's daily spot price for gasoline in the U.S. Gulf closed at $3.12. Traditionally, the average U.S. retail price is about 70 cents over the Gulf spot price, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service.

"I'm not prone to hyperbole, but this is a more serious problem than we've seen in distribution since the Iranian revolution," Kloza said.

Oil closed up $2.61 to $69.81 per barrel, and home heating oil was up 17 cents to $2.08 per gallon. Natural gas prices closed up 52 cents to $11.659 per million British thermal units.

Among major cities last week, Houston had the cheapest price, with fuel down 3.3 cents at $2.53.

More than a quarter of the country's energy comes through the Gulf Coast region. The hundreds of active oil and gas production platforms feed a massive circulatory system of pipelines that stretch to the farthest reaches of the U.S.

On Tuesday afternoon, 95 percent of the Gulf's oil production and 88 percent of its natural gas production remained off-line because of pre-storm evacuations from production platforms and drilling rigs.

Fallout from the production slowdown came swiftly.

The Pantry, which operates more than 1,400 convenience stores and gas stations in the Southeast, warned motorists Monday to avoid unnecessary driving until industry officials can assess the effect the hurricane will have on gasoline supplies.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tried to head off shortage concerns by temporarily easing green fuel regulations for Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi — among them allowing manufacturers to produce diesel with a higher sulfur content.

Assessing the damage
Companies slowly began to assess the damage in the Gulf on Tuesday, with as many as seven platforms reportedly floating free. At least one reportedly had sunk. Coast Guard officials reported sighting many submerged structures, but it will likely take days for complete damage assessments.

Outside New Orleans, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the country's largest oil import terminal, suffered "no apparent catastrophic damage" but it is still without power, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Nearby, Port Fourchon, a main hub and staging area for thousands of offshore workers, remained closed Tuesday as well.

"We've been hit very hard," said Henri Boulet, director of business development for the port, which sustained "significant damage" from a storm surge estimated at 20 feet and winds that reaching 117 mph.

Companies that operate the miles of undersea pipelines that serve the offshore platforms said they were still trying to get crews out to inspect the lines. Undersea landslides that accompanied Hurricane Ivan last summer severed nearly a dozen pipelines and slowed production recovery for months.

David Pursell, an analyst with Pickering Energy Partners, said one producer he spoke with said he may not be able to get a helicopter to fly out over the Gulf until Sunday. Another said he had a helicopter in Port Fourchon, but there was not enough fuel to fly out.

A refinery owned by Valero Energy Corp. of San Antonio had flooding and storm damage that could keep it off-line for up to two weeks.

ConocoPhillips was forced to do only an aerial inspection of its Alliance Refinery in Belle Chasse, La., some 25 miles south of New Orleans along the Mississippi River.

Power outages hurt
The two onshore pipelines shut down because of power outages could have the broadest impact.

The Colonial Pipeline, running from Houston to New York, accounts for upwards of 20 percent of gasoline supplies east of the Mississippi.

Colonial was forced to shut down a stretch of the line running from Houston to Greensboro, N.C., after a power blackout along the Louisiana-Mississippi border knocked out pumping stations.

The company said Tuesday it hoped to partially restore service on the line this weekend by adding temporary generators where the booster stations are inoperable.

The Plantation Pipeline running from Baton Rouge to Washington, D.C., has been down since Sunday evening because of power outages.

Officials with parent company Kinder Morgan hope to have the line back in operation Thursday.

Areas likely to be hit hardest by the reduced flow of gasoline are the Rockies, the Midwest and the Southwest, Kloza said. The West Coast energy infrastructure is somewhat disconnected from that of the rest of the country, while the Northeast relies on the New York Harbor for much of its imports.

Even though the Houston area likely has ample gasoline supplies and refining capacity that is up and running, prices here may rise as well.

Ten percent to 12 percent of U.S. gasoline is imported. Imports topped 1.2 million barrels a day for the week of Aug. 19, up from 992,000 barrels a day last year.

tom.fowler@chron.com, david.ivanovich@chron.com, john.roper@chron.com Reuters News Service contributed to this story.

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Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:52:11 AM EDT
It will be even more difficult for me to find a job.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:53:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 9:53:22 AM EDT by jkstexas2001]
To the folks calling some of us alarmist chicken littles - I know where you are coming from, and would normally agree with you, but in a very small number of cases, the sky actually IS FALLING (such as the Dustbowl situation in the 1930's), and this may be one of these cases.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:54:39 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?



I'm just not convinced still that there is a "crisis". Some parts of the country are low in stock because
of panic buying and a short term disruption in delivery.

The EPA will have to relax some rules, and this will shortly return to a more normal
situation. This country can produce a lot more oil and gas than is currently being
done, simply due to the fact that the EPA and treehuggers decided years ago that it
would be better to pay foreign countries for oil than mess up our own environment.

That will now have to change, and we'll see a second oil boom in the US. There is LOTS
of untapped oil here, just need some changes in environmental regulations to get to it.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:57:53 AM EDT

Originally Posted By TexasSIG:

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:
How long do you folks guess the oil crisis will last?



I'm just not convinced still that there is a "crisis". Some parts of the country are low in stock because
of panic buying and a short term disruption in delivery.

The EPA will have to relax some rules, and this will shortly return to a more normal
situation. This country can produce a lot more oil and gas than is currently being
done, simply due to the fact that the EPA and treehuggers decided years ago that it
would be better to pay foreign countries for oil than mess up our own environment.

That will now have to change, and we'll see a second oil boom in the US. There is LOTS
of untapped oil here, just need some changes in environmental regulations to get to it.



Do you think the Republican leadership has enough balls to steamroll over the Dem's who will protest the relaxation of EPA regulations? I have yet to see any proof they have the intestinal fortitude to do so. Every time the former Senate Minority Leader Daschell said jump, the Republican Senate Majority Leader Lott would ask "How high?"
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 9:58:11 AM EDT

That will now have to change, and we'll see a second oil boom in the US. There is LOTS
of untapped oil here, just need some changes in environmental regulations to get to it.

And possibly we will see some conservation of resources.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 10:00:07 AM EDT

Originally Posted By California_Kid:
The water won't be all pumped out until mid-December. There will be many fires. The gulf coast will be threatened by 3-5 more tropical systems before hurricane season is over. Each storm will be closely watched and some will cause panic.

Mardi Gras 2006 will be a blast in spite of the ruined state of the city. Women will flash their breasts. People will put on their beer goggles and burble on drunkenly about how the spirit of the city will never die, blah blah blah.

Whole neighborhoods will be bulldozed and covered over with several feet of fill before anyone even thinks about starting to rebuild.

Many of the displaced people will stay in other cities like Houston. The sudden demographic shift will threaten east Texas' way of life.

The US economy will take a beating from incresed fuel prices. If the federal and state governments can resist the temptation to mess with the market, things will balance out by next summer as people are forced to conserve. Supplies will improve, prices will drop.

The levy system will eventually be improved and some NO residents will rebuild. The smart ones will learn to prepare better for storms. The city will create a better system for evacuating elderly, disabled, and sick people who can't care for themselves.



And to top it all off:

CALIFORNIA WILL FALL INTO THE OCEAN
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 10:06:18 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 10:07:21 AM EDT by dsmjim]
I know of at least four refinerys that are shutdown, there are more. I just don't have first hand knowledge of them. Had meeting yesterday, one of the refinerys, Shell Norco will be shutdown till at least october, one is in Chalmette, forget about it anytime this year. The Exxon refinery in BR should be up soon, and as I passed Marathon in Garyville I saw that they had got their steam plant running. I would guess they would be up in a couple of weeks. If I hear anything else I'll let you know. I hadn't heard anything first hand about the pipelines yet.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 10:11:43 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Q3131A:

You are mistaken here. There are two different types of pipelines. Ones that bring unrefined crude into the refineries and ones that pumps refined product to the tank farms for distribution. The refined pipelines are up and running. Do a google for Colonial Pipeline.

How do I know this? I used to be a pipeline scheduler.

What is down:
1. The LOOP which brings crude into refineries from oil platforms in the gulf. It also brings crude in from tankers that dock offshore.
2. Eight refieneries in the affected area.

As long as we can keep the current refineries running at peak capacity and stocked with crude, we should not see a major shortage. The price will go up. But it won't be a SHTF.



This is my understanding as well.

The refined pipelines are already back up, but only 50% or so in volume.
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