Here is the deal... as of recess, Congress had passed something like two appropriations bills. The fiscal year ends October 1st.
Between the recommendations of the 9/11 committee, the appropriations bills and the fact that a large chunk of Congress desperately needs October to go home and campaign for their job, I don't see a lot of opportunity to pass a new ban.
According to the staff of my local Congressman, the House does not meet again until September 8th (not the 7th as shown on the calendar) and there is nothing concerning the assault weapons ban scheduled for any of those days. So even if the Senate did manage to submit a bill, vote on it and pass it in less than three days, the bill would still go nowhere because the House won't be acting on it.
Stay sharp until the 13th; but they are already rolling the credits on this one. Whether there will be a sequel (The Ban Strikes Back!) depends largely on November. There are a lot of F-rated Democrats retiring in the South, including four who voted for the ban in March. We have to replace some of those with some good pro-gun candidates.
The key Senate races for gun owners are:
Colorado (retiring Republican incumbent Campbell opposed ban renewal in March): Pete Salazar (R) - Has volunteered for an NRA ad campaign long before he had political ambitions. Mentions Second Amendment on his website.
Ken Salazar (D) - Colorado AG during Columbine,
signed MMM pledge in support of ban, also supports a host of
other gun control lawsRace is currently neck and neck with Coors leading Salazar by a single point in the polls (within the margin of error) as of 8/17/2004.
Florida (retiring Democrat incumbent Graham voted for ban renewal in March):There are a ton of candidates in this races - the primaries are TOMORROW. The main thing to know is the two leading Republican candidates (McCollum and Martinez) both oppose the ban. The two leading Democratic candidates (Castor and Deutsch) both support it.
Louisiana (retiring Democrat incumbent Breaux voted for ban renewal in March): Chris John (D) - GOA C rated, Co-sponsored legislation supporting an individual rights interpretation of the Second Amendment.
Other Dem candidates don't even mention Second Amendment.
David Vitter (R) - GOA A- rated.
Strongly supports Second Amendment.
North Carolina (retiring Democrat incumbernt Edwards voted for ban renewal in March):Erskine Bowles (D) - GOA F rated, former Clinton chief of staff. Bowles has so much charisma he lost to Liddy Dole in 2000 for a NC Senate seat.
Richard Burr (R) - GOA B- rated as a member of the U.S. House, currently trailing Bowles by 8 points as of 8/16/2004 - needs some help to win; but definitely doable.
South Carolina (retiring Democrat Hollings voted for ban renewal in March):Jim DeMint (R) - GOA A rated and we all know GOA doesn't hand out As to just anyone. DeMint was leading his competitor Tenebaum by 13 points as of 8/19/04 - and Tenebaum had more bad news today.
Inez Tenebaum (D) - No rating, steered clear of issue of guns entirely; but based on other views certainly not a conservative Democrat and likely to be anti-gun. Former Secretary of Education, news just came out today that SC SAT scores dropped to dead last in the U.S. under her tenure.
South Dakota (current Democrat incumbent Daschle voted for ban renewal in March):Tom Daschle (D) - Need I say more? GOA F rated. Actively worked to scuttle lawsuit protection and pass various bans in March. Agreed to sponsor S.1805 and then tried to stack the conference committee with Feinstein cronies. Most assuredly not our ally.
John Thune (R) - GOA B-rated. Came within 500 votes of winning in 2000 - had the LP candidate not picked up 3,000 votes, might even have one against Johnson. Now locked neck and neck in another tight race against Daschle. Both tied in the polls.
These are the races that will determine the makeup of the Senate until 2006 - whether it is pro-gun or not. We have to pick up at LEAST two seats AND re-elect Bush in order to have enough votes to stop any gun control bill in the Senate.
If Bush isn't re-elected, then we need at least three seats since the Vice-President (Edwards in that horrible alternative scenario) will cast the tie-breaking vote.
Best case scenario: We pick up five seats and utterly crush the antis. We still won't be able to overcome a filibuster; but we are safe from more gun control until January 2007. Hopefully, Dems learn after sticking hand in that particular fire for the seventh or eighth time that fire is indeed hot and downgrade it even more in their priorities.
Worst case scenario: We lose a vote on the March count (52-47 in favor of ban) and begin a slide towards more gun control laws - a new ban likely to be an issue as soon as Congress begins in January 2005.