Yesterday everybody was reporting a 3 point lead in Rasmussen, but it was actually 2.6% rounded up. Today is 3 points again, but is actually 3.2% rounded down... in other words, a half percent increase. Why does this matter? Because it is a three day rolling averag. So if the past three days are actually 1.4 point lead, 2.6 and 3.2 you have an actual current lead today that is HIGHER than 3.2% because the 3.2% is an average from previous days which were lower. This means that current numbers are pulling the average up and the only way to do that is if the lead widens. Tomorrow will likely be the highest day of the week and then it will start to dip again with weekend samples which find fewer republicans home to answer polls and thus depress numbers, only to go through this cycle again mid next week and beginning the weekend.
Today 49.1 45.9 Oct 21 48.8 46.2 Oct 20 48.3 46.9 Oct 19 48.2 46.6 Oct 18 47.5 47.3 Oct 17 48.5 46.4 Oct 16 48.3 46.2 Oct 15 49.0 45.5 Oct 14 48.1 45.9 Oct 13 47.6 46.2 Oct 12 47.4 45.8 Oct 11 49.0 45.4 Oct 10 49.5 45.5
|