New estimates on Iranian nukes
By ORLY HALPERN
Aug. 1, 2005 1:20  | Updated Aug. 1, 2005 17:01

www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1122776414371

Israel has adjusted its estimates of when it believes Iran will have nuclear bombs due to the belief that that Iran no longer runs independent military and civilian nuclear development programs. According to the new estimates, Iran will probably have a nuclear bomb by 2012, but could have the capability as early as 2008 "if all goes well for it," a high ranking IDF commander told The Jerusalem Post yesterday.

"We no longer think that a secret military track runs independent of the civilian one," said the officer in an interview at IDF Headquarters in Tel-Aviv. "If it were then they could acquire weapons in 2007... We have changed our estimation. Now we think the military track is dependent on the civilian one. However, from a certain point it will be able to run independently. But not earlier than 2008."

Iran has been developing nuclear capacity which, it says, is only for peaceful civilian purposes allowed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But many countries fear that Iran is secretly developing nuclear military capacity as well.

Last January IDF Intelligence Branch chief Maj.-Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash said in a lecture at the University of Haifa's National Security Studies Center that if Teheran did not stop its uranium enrichment activities, it would develop its first atomic weapon between 2007 and 2009. He also said that Iran was six months away from enriching uranium required to build a nuclear bomb, a step that has been described as the "point of no return."

That date passed last month and Israel does not believe that Iran has yet achieved the enrichment milestone. The source now believes the "point of no return" could occur within a few months to a year.

What most concerns Israel right now is the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran in 2008, especially given that the US is more concerned with the later possible date of 2012.

In November Iran voluntarily ceased its uranium enrichment program as as part of talks with France, Germany and Britain regarding its nuclear development program. Iran is threatening to renew its uranium enrichment process.

ETA: The Israelis are dumber than I thought if they think Iran doesnt have something cooking in the basement no one knows about

Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action?

Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action?

The only reason we would take action is if Israel pressured us into doing it, saying they were about to do it. This seems like they are lightening up the pressure.

Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action?

Well, they pushed the date further away, but you know how sneaky those damn Jews are.

Quoted: Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action? Well, they pushed the date further away, but you know how sneaky those damn Jews are.

According to the new estimates, Iran will probably have a nuclear bomb by 2012, but could have the capability as early as 2008 "if all goes well for it,"

...I'm a big fan of Israel so don't play me like that homey...  

I just read what I highlighted in red and wondered if they were angling for more assitance -- or for us to just do the dirty deed for them and knock the cyclotrons or whatever they're called out of action...

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action? Well, they pushed the date further away, but you know how sneaky those damn Jews are. According to the new estimates, Iran will probably have a nuclear bomb by 2012, but could have the capability as early as 2008 "if all goes well for it," ...I'm a big fan of Israel so don't play me like that homey...   I just read what I highlighted in red and wondered if they were angling for more assitance -- or for us to just do the dirty deed for them and knock the cyclotrons or whatever they're called out of action...

They pushed even the "possible" date to 2008 as opposed to an earlier estimate of 2007, so I don't see it as a push for us into some kind of action, at least not yet.

bump

Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action?

why spur us into action for?  They've got the equipment to do it themselves.......so let 'em.  

Good. This buys us more time to further test and develop those deep strike, bunker busting, 30,000 lb versions of the MOAB that could be used to send Iran's underground facilities straight to hell.  

Quoted: Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action? why spur us into action for?  They've got the equipment to do it themselves.......so let 'em.

But if you can get your big brother (who has always been there for you) to do it for you, more's the better.

That was where I was coming from on this one.

Quoted: Quoted: Is this Israel's way of spurring us into some kind of action? why spur us into action for?  They've got the equipment to do it themselves.......so let 'em.

i have this argument with a relative. somewhere i read that iran had something like 350 sites involved in their nuke. program. also take a look at the map. the size or iran. this aint iraq with a single place or too. this is an enormous country who's prolly paid attention to current history and knows it needs ot bury whatever it does really deep.. and have more than one key spot. somewhere i read about the difficulty of israel strking the sites.. the number.. the distance too.. overflys of other countries.. refueling..

my take is unless israel has a really really big rabit up its sleeve they don't have enough conventional stuff to do the job with assurance.. only the us does.. and iran isn't gonna give us the pretext to strke before they build the bomb..

and make no mistake.. sooner or later they will have nuclear weapons..

Quoted: Good. This buys us more time to further test and develop those deep strike, bunker busting, 30,000 lb versions of the MOAB that could be used to send Iran's underground facilities straight to hell.

or the israelis could be completely wrong and we could be losing time as we speak

Israel warns of Iran nuclear plans, calls for international pressure

www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-08-01-israel-iran_x.htm

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli officials expressed alarm Monday over Iran's decision to resume uranium processing, warning that unless the international community steps up pressure on the Islamic state, Iran will develop nuclear weapons.

However, Israeli experts said the world, led by the U.S., should deal with the problem. (Related story: Iran restarts nuclear activities)

Iran says its nuclear enrichment program is for peaceful purposes, but Israel and the United States believe Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

"If the Americans, Europeans and Russians will not take Iran to the (U.N.) Security Council and put real pressure on them, they will produce nuclear capabilities," said Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Israel has repeatedly warned that Iran, which already posses the Shahab-3 missile — a weapon capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and reaching Europe, Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East — is a threat to the Jewish state.

"There is a growing understanding in the international community that the Iranian nuclear program is not benign," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev.

Despite the mounting concern over the resumption of uranium processing and the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-liner, as Iran's president, officials said that Israel was relying on the international community, in particular the U.S., to stop Iran.

"Israel has already said that its policy today is to leave the stage to the international players, the United States and Europe," said Efraim Halevy, the former head of Israel's Mossad spy agency. "I think Israel is acting wisely."

Officials questioned Israel's ability to destroy Iran's nuclear installations. Israeli warplanes bombed the unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak near Baghdad in 1981. They said Iran's nuclear installations, unlike the Iraqi reactor, are dispersed throughout the country — many in populated areas, with sophisticated defense systems.

"I believe this is beyond our abilities," said Uzi Even, a former lawmaker and a Tel Aviv University expert on nuclear weapons.

Iran should fear the U.S., not Israel, Steinitz said. "The Americans have proven their ability to strike many sites simultaneously."

Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Well so much for the Isrealis taking on Iran before August 10th

disturbing

Quoted: disturbing

Especially in light of them restarting their program ...