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Posted: 3/26/2009 3:36:34 PM EDT
So what do you guys think? Are we almost out of this mess?
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:37:35 PM EDT
Originally Posted By RuskEnt:
So what do you guys think? Are we almost out of this mess?


What has changed?
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:37:45 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:38:20 PM EDT
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:39:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 3:40:18 PM EDT by elderboy02]
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


I agree with this.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:39:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 3:40:50 PM EDT by omega62]
Almost out of this mess?

They're passing laws that will put your children and grandchildren in debt for decades to come.

And wait until the inflation kicks in.

No, we are not almost out of this mess.

Now, we just have socialists in charge who will make it worse.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:40:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 3:43:23 PM EDT by flyfishnepa]


shit, i would have said yes if obama didn't spend over a trillion dollars already.


ETA: they should have just let it work itself out like a free market system does. now they've pretty much fucked us for decades.





Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:40:34 PM EDT
No, we'll probably come out just in time for the 2010 elections..

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:41:55 PM EDT
I was just asked to "voluntarily" cut my hours at work due to it being so slow. So, in my world, it's getting worse.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:42:46 PM EDT
Home sales and construction are up in the first Q'09 in Nevada....
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:43:26 PM EDT
Originally Posted By elderboy02:
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


I agree with this.


This is a suckers rally. The bottom should be in June sometime, low 4K to high 3K's.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:43:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 3:44:58 PM EDT by Essayons]
Originally Posted By omega62:

They're passing laws that will put your children and grandchildren in debt for decades to come.

And wait until the inflation kicks in.

No, we are not almost out of this mess.

Now, we just have socialists in charge who will make it worse.


Status quo for my adult life

In response to the OP, some of my clients are seeing business start to pick up. Others are still in the doldrums. The businesses that survive will be leaner and more efficient when things pick back up. A lot of the jobs lost won't be coming back. My $0.02. YMMV.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:54:15 PM EDT
As I was walking out of work today, I walked pass the little break area and they had Fox News on the tv talking about the stock market and I heard the bell ringing and optimism in their voices as I walked by and for some reason it just gave me a BAD feeling. Not that this means anything at all.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:55:32 PM EDT
Originally Posted By RuskEnt:
So what do you guys think? Are we almost out of this mess?


Take OUR Tax dollars out of the equation; What has changed that enables Failing Businesses to make a PROFIT?

Suckers rally....NO amount of Money can stop the inevitable

OUR Government is doing exactly what AIG did to FAIL; "Insuring/Guaranteeing" LOSES
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 3:55:39 PM EDT
No way.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:00:05 PM EDT
Originally Posted By NoHarmNoFAL:
Originally Posted By elderboy02:
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


I agree with this.


This is a suckers rally. The bottom should be in June sometime, low 4K to high 3K's.


I'm not so sure anymore.

Bears are good at fooling everyone into making bad bets though.

I think we've beat the deflation panic by flooding the economy with liquidity, bailing out the bankrupt counterparties that threatened to break the system and essentially committing to monetization. Really the deflation fears were based on the idea that TPTB wouldn't actually be stupid enough to pull the rug out from under the dollar by monetizating debts, which is an arguement I never completely bought.

However, the real problem is that we can't meet all our future obligations in real terms, so we really won't be out of the crisis until all the pensions and entitlements have been defaulted one way or another, and I'm betting on currency devaluation being the form default takes.

I'm still sticking by my call for a 10% dividend yield on the S&P for a bottom, I'm just not sure where it's going to land anymore, we're going to see more losses in some combination of stocks, bonds, and the dollar.

We've got two more years before the housing demand catches up with the oversupply even if things do pick up and we have a fairly normal two years, we could see some pretty substantial housing losses from here if the treasury situation gets away from us and rates rise, or if the employment situation continues to deteriorate.

Locally Boeing is looking pretty shaky and that's the primary driver of my states job market, if Boeing closes up in WA and moves to another state or more capacity offshore the housing market here would completely fall apart, we've been fairly insulated from the crashing values most of the coastal areas have experienced thus far.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:06:09 PM EDT
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:10:13 PM EDT
Originally Posted By K2QB3:
Originally Posted By NoHarmNoFAL:
Originally Posted By elderboy02:
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


I agree with this.


This is a suckers rally. The bottom should be in June sometime, low 4K to high 3K's.


I'm not so sure anymore.

Bears are good at fooling everyone into making bad bets though.

I think we've beat the deflation panic by flooding the economy with liquidity, bailing out the bankrupt counterparties that threatened to break the system and essentially committing to monetization. Really the deflation fears were based on the idea that TPTB wouldn't actually be stupid enough to pull the rug out from under the dollar by monetizating debts, which is an arguement I never completely bought.

However, the real problem is that we can't meet all our future obligations in real terms, so we really won't be out of the crisis until all the pensions and entitlements have been defaulted one way or another, and I'm betting on currency devaluation being the form default takes.

I'm still sticking by my call for a 10% dividend yield on the S&P for a bottom, I'm just not sure where it's going to land anymore, we're going to see more losses in some combination of stocks, bonds, and the dollar.

We've got two more years before the housing demand catches up with the oversupply even if things do pick up and we have a fairly normal two years, we could see some pretty substantial housing losses from here if the treasury situation gets away from us and rates rise, or if the employment situation continues to deteriorate.

Locally Boeing is looking pretty shaky and that's the primary driver of my states job market, if Boeing closes up in WA and moves to another state or more capacity offshore the housing market here would completely fall apart, we've been fairly insulated from the crashing values most of the coastal areas have experienced thus far.



I would be inclined to agree with you if I didn't think that BHO was not trying to drive the economy into the ground and possibly even get the dollar removed as a global currency.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:11:45 PM EDT
You guys are going to kick yourself in a few months when it's around 9000.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:16:47 PM EDT
My brother says it has, and he is an economist. He says you won't "really" hear about it for a few months because their primary indicator (unemployment) lags for at least 2months.


I just stare at him blankly and finally say "Dude are you gonna order that f***ing AR or what?"
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:19:57 PM EDT
I believe this is just them trying to get whoever has anything left to spend, to spend it. That way they can be sure there is nobody left standing except for the elite.

Yes, my tinfoil is wrapped tight.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:21:42 PM EDT
The stock market will recover way before the general public does
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:21:56 PM EDT
Originally Posted By omega62:
Almost out of this mess?

They're passing laws that will put your children and grandchildren in debt for decades to come.

And wait until the inflation kicks in.

No, we are not almost out of this mess.

Now, we just have socialists in charge who will make it worse.


+1
Normally I am an optomist,however, I can't see how this won't get worse. I hope I am wrong

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:24:25 PM EDT
No way. The signs would be an entire quarter, that is 3 months, of solid, 5% growth in GDP. Laffer Curve? The idiots are completely ignorant of it.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:26:32 PM EDT
It's starting to recover. But it'll be 40-60 years before recovery is complete.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:26:41 PM EDT
I'm not worried about the economy, it will recover, It's the Obama Administration and the Current Congress that I'm worried about
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:27:01 PM EDT
Originally Posted By RuskEnt:
So what do you guys think? Are we almost out of this mess?


NO

Market will go up to about 9000 pts based on LIES and then tank again down to 5500 to 6500 range or lower

Do not be fooled

It has only begun
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:28:06 PM EDT
Originally Posted By NoHarmNoFAL:
Originally Posted By elderboy02:
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


I agree with this.


This is a suckers rally. The bottom should be in June sometime, low 4K to high 3K's.


And this is exactly when they are expecting civil unrest and other problems..... going to be a hot summer indeed

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:29:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 4:31:28 PM EDT by raf]
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:30:30 PM EDT
So can i start charging stuff again?
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:32:33 PM EDT
It hasn't even started to get tough yet.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:35:48 PM EDT
No...........
see post.......... http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=850339
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:36:57 PM EDT
dont look now...

your in the back of the plane, up front the pilot and copilot have died of heart attacks, you're over the ocean, the stewardess who just loves animals has brought a pet chimp up from the luggage compartment to fly the plane, the first class area is filled with special olympians and midgets arguing about whether or not they should jump out or land in the water.. except for the chimp stewardess the rest are drunk in the back of the plane and someone has let their seeing eye pig loose to run up and down the aisle squealing..

the only thing thats saving you is you're asleep..

only god or a miracle will keep this sucker from a really hard landing... whats going on now is a mirage or a carefully constructed house of smoke and mirrors....

the pump dont work cause the vandals stole the handle...
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:51:46 PM EDT
This looks like a bottom. It might not go straight up without some sideways movement. DOW 9000 might be a level of resistance.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:53:59 PM EDT
Originally Posted By caseypj:
You guys are going to kick yourself in a few months when it's around 9000.


No I won't cause I'll be selling.


GR

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 4:58:31 PM EDT
Hey - just my opinion. I am in Michigan and work for a mucipality. I do foreclosure maintenance on the side. I have rentals on the side. The municipal job has remained stable, although contracts and wages are being negotiated. The rental market is good, there are lots of people with poor credit that aren't bad people. The rental market was difficult prior to the real estate fallout, because it was difficult to buy a house that would cash flow. All the good renters were buying the lower end houses, with the loose credit and downpayment programs. The foreclosure maintenance business has been crazy busy in addition tot he 40-hr job. The rentals are now going backwards because of low values compared to my loan, utilities, taxes, etc. So I'm busy at one thing, losing it out the back door on the others. But, still above water.

The economy in Michigan is bleak. Jobs aren't being replaced, and, in situations where they are, they are replaced with lower paying jobs and less of them. High unemployment rates, but, no new jobs on the horizon. Some people, mostly realtors, have said that the return is coming, but it can't. There are no jobs. I'll be surprised if construction really comes back in full force with all this stimulus/bailout money.

Give somebody that pays their mortgage on time $5000 and see what they do with it - lots of people would pay down debt with it.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:02:11 PM EDT
Our very own doom and gloomers have been predicting for years, a multi pronged financial meltdown. Subprime loans, followed by Commercial RE loans, Prime Residential RE loans, Credit Cards and Car loans, not necessarily in that order. They aren't making it up themselves, they are gleaning it from multiple sources, including some very well informed and brilliant men such as Warren Buffett and George Soros.

The unsettling thing, is that they seem to have been right so far.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:03:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 5:04:36 PM EDT by Dragracer_Art]
I think it's a false sense of security... to believe things are getting better.

The people who drive the economy (You and I) are STILL out of work and STILL not spending money.

The only reason the market is going up is because the people who still HAVE money, are trying to gobble up perceived "deals".

I don't think we are even close to getting better. I think we are in the eye of the hurricane right now.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:05:46 PM EDT
If I was running stuff I'd make everyone think it was the bottom, get them to pump money into 'safe' investments, tell them that they can expect the market to go back up 40-50% in the next two years, then jack up the capital gains tax. Oh, and you made more than $250K in reportable income that year? Hello 40% tax bracket!

Bastards.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:08:24 PM EDT
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


yes
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:09:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 5:10:03 PM EDT by N1Rampage]
Originally Posted By Dragracer_Art:
I think it's a false sense of security... to believe things are getting better.

The people who drive the economy (You and I) are STILL out of work and STILL not spending money.

The only reason the market is going up is because the people who still HAVE money, are trying to gobble up perceived "deals".

I don't think we are even close to getting better. I think we are in the eye of the hurricane right now.


Yep, turned 5K into 10K in the last two weeks with the Stock Market!

Buyers market for the short term and long!
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:10:15 PM EDT
Is there a bond market bubble to burst?
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:10:36 PM EDT
Originally Posted By capnrob97:
Still bottoming out, 3rd qtr 2009 will see sunshine again, IMHO...


If we spend like Obama wants to this sunshine wil only last for a couple of years. Then we will spend DECADES in hell, at the very least, trying to pay off the National Debt and China will do its utmost to keep us from doing so. They need a source of hard currency and if we pay them off, they stop getting free money.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:13:37 PM EDT
Originally Posted By RuskEnt:
So what do you guys think? Are we almost out of this mess?


We are picking up speed to jump the Snake River Canyon.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:15:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 5:22:20 PM EDT by mongo001]
The US had a troublesome bond auction yesterday. They had to raise the rate a bit to entice buyers in. That wasn't the expected result of quantitative easing.

The UK had a failed auction yesterday. It was an odd and unusual 40yr bond (called a gilt in the UK), so that may have added to it. The end result was that they only had $0.93 bid for every $1.00 of bonds they offered.

Both of these events may hint that the world may be tiring of funding irresponsible spending by retarded governments.

If Obama can't fund his plans with borrowed money, things will get bad. The options are to have the Fed print money to buy the debt, or Obama fails miserably on every promise he made or both. I like the miserable failure option myself.

My point being that a treasury bond bubble burst could be the financial end of this country. Bottom? Not so sure here.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:17:56 PM EDT
This thread sums it up.

http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=850339

To sum it up....we have so much debt, we can't pay it back, other countries are having second thoughts about buying our treasury bonds. Total collapse may be in the near future.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:21:32 PM EDT
Originally Posted By mongo001:
The US had a troublesome bond auction yesterday. They had to raise the rate a bit to entice buyers in. That wasn't the expected result of quantitative easing.

The UK had a failed auction yesterday. It was an odd and unusual 40yr bond (called a gilt in the UK), so that may have added to it. The end result was that they only had $0.93 bid for every $1.00 of bonds they offered.

Both of these events may hint that the world may be tiring of funding irresponsible spending by retarded governments.

If Obama can't fund his plans with borrowed money, things will get bad. The options are to have the Fed print money to buy the debt, or Obama fails miserably on every promise he made or both. I like the miserable failure option myself.


The people holding the debt don't like it when we print money to pay it off.

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:29:12 PM EDT
Originally Posted By N1Rampage:
Originally Posted By Dragracer_Art:
I think it's a false sense of security... to believe things are getting better.

The people who drive the economy (You and I) are STILL out of work and STILL not spending money.

The only reason the market is going up is because the people who still HAVE money, are trying to gobble up perceived "deals".

I don't think we are even close to getting better. I think we are in the eye of the hurricane right now.


Yep, turned 5K into 10K in the last two weeks with the Stock Market!

Buyers market for the short term and long!


I have done 20 up percent in 15 days, have stops in place, agree with this man, there is money to be made if you have brains...

two things...
dont buy .50 cent 5.56 ammo, you should have already done this long ago when you could

don't buy stocks high and sell low, this is wrong
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:30:55 PM EDT
Although I think Soros is a retard, he does know a bit about business.

Commercial Real Estate Could Drop 30%

Add to this, Alt A and Option ARM loans are due for default waves this year and next. Add to this a looming credit card default wave coming. Add to this another percent or so of unemployed people out to mid 2010.

IMHO, nothing has really changed. There's still a ton of headwinds out there.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:36:49 PM EDT
An artificial economy borrowed from china. NO!!!
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 5:39:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 5:39:42 PM EDT by Chris_1522]
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