Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
1/22/2020 12:12:56 PM
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Posted: 10/2/2007 8:26:04 AM EST
I ask based on my speculation only and nothing else.
When Reagan, Bush Sr., Klinton, and Bush Jr. took office they all inherited lame economies.
When the new POTUS gets the keys to Pennsylvania Ave on Jan. 08' they will have a weak dollar, a trashed mortgaged/ RE market and rising energy costs.
These other Pres. did not have this when took office.
There could be some HUGE discounts on housing in 08-09' Any thoughts?
If not, may this thread have a swift death
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:36:11 AM EST
The economy is a wreck and the DOW is at 14,000.

Huh
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:38:12 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2007 8:39:08 AM EST by kill-9]
Yes, we are doomed.



(This gif is getting worn out this week )
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:38:45 AM EST
Love that gif.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:39:38 AM EST
the hilda-beast will fix all. Free medical will be a big boom.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:41:21 AM EST
IBTP.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:43:23 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:43:35 AM EST

Originally Posted By innocent_bystander:
The economy is a wreck and the DOW is at 14,000.

Huh


wasn't the stock market way up before the depression?

I'm just sayin...
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:45:20 AM EST
in
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:45:33 AM EST

Originally Posted By Partisan:
the hilda-beast will fix all. Free medical will be a big boom.


Sure. Why exert any effort whatsoever to take care of our own health any more?

Plus don't forget how the beast will give everyone a $5,000.00 gift for each new baby they can pop out, thus encouraging the indigent to reproduce even more.

Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:47:16 AM EST

Originally Posted By kill-9:
Yes, we are doomed.

vanfossen.org/onoz.gif

(This gif is getting worn out this week )


I was just looking for that .gif.



Oh, and yeah, we're pretty much fucked.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:52:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hawkeye:

Originally Posted By innocent_bystander:
The economy is a wreck and the DOW is at 14,000.

Huh



As long as the DOW soars, everything is ok.


Yep.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 8:53:36 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2007 8:54:17 AM EST by BangStick1]
Yep, if the Hildabeast wins and Dems get a few more seats, it's all over!

Coporate coffers will be raided because how dare they make a profit in the "New world economy". Taxes will be hiked dramatically for no logical reason and we will be ramrodded down the road of socialism while foreign invaders from all around the world are allowed to pick over the carcass.

Conform now or face re-education!!
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:31:58 AM EST
Don't forget the inevitable result of a weak dollar: inflation, especially on imported goods.

Our trade deficits, the plummeting value of the dollar, the credit crunch, the devaluation of the housing market, rising unemployment and the rising cost of energy are signs that we are heading into an economic downturn. The factor that will make the difference between economic downturn and economic disaster is the Fed/.gov response.

The fact that the Fed is lowering interest rates and printing more money is a bad sign. It will only increase the amount of borrowed money and decrease the value of the dollar further. Also, the definite trend in American politics is for Americans to vote with their pocketbooks. When consumers and employees start feeling the pinch they blame the president and in election years they vote for the opposite party. If this thing continues to worsen then it bodes very well for Hillary. If Hillary gets elected then you can rest assured that she will implement policies that will plunge is into a recession.

Economies expand and recede. That is the natural order of things. If we let it go then all of the different consumer markets would correct themselves naturally and we'd be through this in no time with a stronger economic base. My hopes of that happening are slim.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:34:01 AM EST
I would say, "no".
No major economic downfall in '08-'09.

The problem is more insidious.

The Dow will continue to look like things are fine, but they're not really.
This is because the Dow (and the other averages) represent the value of companies which are pretty much all multinational in their business operations. They no longer present an exclusive picture of the U.S. economy.
In other words, we could now see a rise in the unemployment figures here at home, a falling housing market, and an overall declining standard of living and the Dow will in all probability look great because it will include a lot of earnings originating largely overseas; not here.

Additionally, the recent increase in the Dow includes "increased" value in dollar terms only. This increase exists because the dollar has just dropped in value. In other words, part of the recent increase in value of the stock market is nothing more than the price being adjusted for inflation.

So, everybody gets to pretend that everything is fine. The dollar value of everybody's stock market portfolio continues to rise. But the actual puchasing power of that portfolio in dollars actually declines.

Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:42:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By Coolio:
I would say, "no".
No major economic downfall in '08-'09.

The problem is more insidious.

The Dow will continue to look like things are fine, but they're not really.
This is because the Dow (and the other averages) represent the value of companies which are pretty much all multinational in their business operations. They no longer present an exclusive picture of the U.S. economy.
In other words, we could now see a rise in the unemployment figures here at home, a falling housing market, and an overall declining standard of living and the Dow will in all probability look great because it will include a lot of earnings originating largely overseas; not here.

Additionally, the recent increase in the Dow includes "increased" value in dollar terms only. This increase exists because the dollar has just dropped in value. In other words, part of the recent increase in value of the stock market is nothing more than the price being adjusted for inflation.

So, everybody gets to pretend that everything is fine. The dollar value of everybody's stock market portfolio continues to rise. But the actual puchasing power of that portfolio in dollars actually declines.



Interesting. So basically we may be killing ourselves without even realizing it.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:45:58 AM EST
And for those who think that gold is the way to go, this is an interesting thread to read:

www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=10147&page=1
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:47:57 AM EST
I swear there are some real mental midgets around here. Barring an asteriod about the size of texas, the rise of the zombie horde or space aliens on the prowl. TEOTWAWKI will never happen, at least certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently on the planet. Economies are cyclical, things suck, then they get better, then they suck again.

The scarey thing is so many moonbats, many posting on ARFCOM who WANT it to happen so they can live out thier Walter Middy "Omega Man" fantasies. Those people fucking scare me pissless, alot more so than a weak dollar or soft housing market.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:49:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By LvFreeRDie:

Originally Posted By Hawkeye:

Originally Posted By innocent_bystander:
The economy is a wreck and the DOW is at 14,000.

Huh



As long as the DOW soars, everything is ok.


Yep.


Zimbabwe's stock market is always up too. Must be indicative of how their economy is doing so well.

Anyone got change for a 10 million dollar bill?
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:49:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
I swear there are some real mental midgets around here. Barring an asteriod about the size of texas, the rise of the zombie horde or space aliens on the prowl. TEOTWAWKI will never happen, at least certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently on the planet. Economies are cyclical, things suck, then they get better, then they suck again.

The scarey thing is so many moonbats, many posting on ARFCOM who WANT it to happen so they can live out thier Walter Middy "Omega Man" fantasies. Those people fucking scare me pissless, alot more so than a weak dollar or soft housing market.


I don't know if your head is in the sand or up your ass. The USA (as well as the world as a whole) is downward spiraling out of control.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:52:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By maddog_enigma:

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
I swear there are some real mental midgets around here. Barring an asteriod about the size of texas, the rise of the zombie horde or space aliens on the prowl. TEOTWAWKI will never happen, at least certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently on the planet. Economies are cyclical, things suck, then they get better, then they suck again.

The scarey thing is so many moonbats, many posting on ARFCOM who WANT it to happen so they can live out thier Walter Middy "Omega Man" fantasies. Those people fucking scare me pissless, alot more so than a weak dollar or soft housing market.


I don't know if your head is in the sand or up your ass. The USA (as well as the world as a whole) is downward spiraling out of control.


You're crazy to assume that something really bad could happen!!! Really bad stuff never happens, EVER.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:55:12 AM EST


Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:56:40 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2007 9:59:13 AM EST by Vermilion_Six]

Originally Posted By maddog_enigma:

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
I swear there are some real mental midgets around here. Barring an asteriod about the size of texas, the rise of the zombie horde or space aliens on the prowl. TEOTWAWKI will never happen, at least certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently on the planet. Economies are cyclical, things suck, then they get better, then they suck again.

The scarey thing is so many moonbats, many posting on ARFCOM who WANT it to happen so they can live out thier Walter Middy "Omega Man" fantasies. Those people fucking scare me pissless, alot more so than a weak dollar or soft housing market.


I don't know if your head is in the sand or up your ass. The USA (as well as the world as a whole) is downward spiraling out of control.


Prove it. Are things as bad now as they were in 1915? 1929, 1942? 1963? 1979? Not even close.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:57:26 AM EST

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
I swear there are some real mental midgets around here. Barring an asteriod about the size of texas, the rise of the zombie horde or space aliens on the prowl. TEOTWAWKI will never happen, at least certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently on the planet. Economies are cyclical, things suck, then they get better, then they suck again.

The scarey thing is so many moonbats, many posting on ARFCOM who WANT it to happen so they can live out thier Walter Middy "Omega Man" fantasies. Those people fucking scare me pissless, alot more so than a weak dollar or soft housing market.


Who said anything about The End Of The World? i don't see anything about the end of the world in this thread, other than your little rant. I see people discussing what seems to be an imminent economic downturn. They have happened before you know. The Great Depression wasn't a doomsday event, neither was the stagflation during the mid-late 70's. The were disastrous economic times though. It's looking like we are heading into a comparable time again. You can choose to ignore it, or you can get your house in order.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:57:46 AM EST
My stock and retirement portfolios are up 24% for the year. And I SUCK at picking good mutual funds. I got a 4% raise this year, wife got a 6% raise, and a $3500 bonus, all our debts are such that even if one of us lost a job we'd still be able to pay all our bills. We watch our spending but still have a decent amount left for toys, and we save 22% of our income to invest in our retirement.

So in answer to your question, yes - we are all doomed.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:58:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By LvFreeRDie:
And for those who think that gold is the way to go, this is an interesting thread to read:

www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=10147&page=1



The guy on that thread that says gold is going to drop is a known troll on that board. That is actually a buy recommendation for gold..
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 9:59:48 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2007 10:01:29 AM EST by LtDirector]

Originally Posted By JohnCrighton:
My stock and retirement portfolios are up 24% for the year. And I SUCK at picking good mutual funds. I got a 4% raise this year, wife got a 6% raise, and a $3500 bonus, all our debts are such that even if one of us lost a job we'd still be able to pay all our bills. We watch our spending but still have a decent amount left for toys, and we save 22% of our income to invest in our retirement.

So in answer to your question, yes - we are all doomed.


If the dollar loses all it's value then you're still screwed. If it hyper inflates god only knows.

edit: Things have been looking good for me as well. I assume this means something will destroy my savings as well haha
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:18:00 AM EST

Originally Posted By kill-9:
Yes, we are doomed.

vanfossen.org/onoz.gif

(This gif is getting worn out this week )



damn that's funny
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:20:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By JohnCrighton:
My stock and retirement portfolios are up 24% for the year. And I SUCK at picking good mutual funds. I got a 4% raise this year, wife got a 6% raise, and a $3500 bonus, all our debts are such that even if one of us lost a job we'd still be able to pay all our bills. We watch our spending but still have a decent amount left for toys, and we save 22% of our income to invest in our retirement.

So in answer to your question, yes - we are all doomed.


The dollar lost 5% of its value last month. Sorry to break it to you, but you didnt get a raise, you took a pay cut.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:21:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
Um, my mom and dad lived through the Great Depression as lower class kids in a North Carolina mill village. I personally lived through the Energy/Inflation/Unemployment Crisis of the Carter Administration as a middle class kid. Shit happens, then it gets better. You folks act like the bottom is going to fall out and then go down hill from there. My point is there is absolutely no historical evidence that this can or will happen in the first world. Some of you guys want it to happen so you can sit, holed up with your super dual laser. dual light, dual optic equiped mall ninja M4-clones and shoot people as they banzai charge your trailer to get your stuff. it's the same irrational moonbattery that we saw at Y2K.


Again, you're the only one talking about the end of the world, Y2K, M4s or anything else.

Did your parents enjoy the depression? Was that a good time for them? Did they enjoy the Carter Economy? Was that that a good time too? No, no one was running around with AR15s looting and pillaging over the economy (and I don't expect to see that if our economy goes into another big recession), but it wasn't exactly the roaring 20's either.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:23:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:
Um, my mom and dad lived through the Great Depression as lower class kids in a North Carolina mill village. I personally lived through the Energy/Inflation/Unemployment Crisis of the Carter Administration as a middle class kid. Shit happens, then it gets better. You folks act like the bottom is going to fall out and then go down hill from there. My point is there is absolutely no historical evidence that this can or will happen in the first world. Some of you guys want it to happen so you can sit, holed up with your super dual laser. dual light, dual optic equiped mall ninja M4-clones and shoot people as they banzai charge your trailer to get your stuff. it's the same irrational moonbattery that we saw at Y2K.


Don't see anyone saying anything like it. I just see you here pretending nothing bad can happen. Sure, stuff gets better. But the economy getting better doesn't do you much good if you starved to death when it was worse.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:24:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By igorthesmall:

Originally Posted By JohnCrighton:
My stock and retirement portfolios are up 24% for the year. And I SUCK at picking good mutual funds. I got a 4% raise this year, wife got a 6% raise, and a $3500 bonus, all our debts are such that even if one of us lost a job we'd still be able to pay all our bills. We watch our spending but still have a decent amount left for toys, and we save 22% of our income to invest in our retirement.

So in answer to your question, yes - we are all doomed.


The dollar lost 5% of its value last month. Sorry to break it to you, but you didnt get a raise, you took a pay cut.


It gained back 1% in the last two days.
The dollar selling of last week was overzealous hedge-funds buying like mad to balance their Q3 books.

The dollar has been in a decreasing wedge pattern for quite some time, this is often indicative of a major coming reversal.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:36:51 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2007 10:37:58 AM EST by Vermilion_Six]

Don't see anyone saying anything like it. I just see you here pretending nothing bad can happen. Sure, stuff gets better. But the economy getting better doesn't do you much good if you starved to death when it was worse.


I'm not saying nothing bad can happen, bad shit happens every day. My point is that the idea that the US Economy is going to go tits up because of the economic cycle we are, and have always been in is just as irrationally speculative as the "OMGZ ALL COMPUTERS IN THE WORLD ARE GONNA CRASH ON 1/1/2000 ALL OUR WEALTH IS ELECTRONIC WE ARE ALL RUINED/DOOMED, STOCKPILE AMMO, FOOD, WATER, MOVE TO MONTANA!" crap that we heard, mostly from these same people, from the mid 1990s till 1/2/2000.

And even if it did I don't see anyone who would not have starved to death otherwise starving to death before things even back out. People starved in the 1930s, sure, but that was the 1930s, with crappy roads, no FEMA, no organized relief infrastructure all ready in place.

Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely or even really plausable? No.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:49:07 AM EST

Originally Posted By Vermilion_Six:

Don't see anyone saying anything like it. I just see you here pretending nothing bad can happen. Sure, stuff gets better. But the economy getting better doesn't do you much good if you starved to death when it was worse.


I'm not saying nothing bad can happen, bad shit happens every day. My point is that the idea that the US Economy is going to go tits up because of the economic cycle we are, and have always been in is just as irrationally speculative as the "OMGZ ALL COMPUTERS IN THE WORLD ARE GONNA CRASH ON 1/1/2000 ALL OUR WEALTH IS ELECTRONIC WE ARE ALL RUINED/DOOMED, STOCKPILE AMMO, FOOD, WATER, MOVE TO MONTANA!" crap that we heard, mostly from these same people, from the mid 1990s till 1/2/2000.

And even if it did I don't see anyone who would not have starved to death otherwise starving to death before things even back out. People starved in the 1930s, sure, but that was the 1930s, with crappy roads, no FEMA, no organized relief infrastructure all ready in place.

Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely or even really plausable? No.


Look what happened during Katrina. And that will be small scale compared to an economic collapse. If you do not prepare for a depression/recession and it hits, you're screwed. Be it starving, becoming homeless, etc either way the economy doesn't always return to normal for everyone. That is why threads like this exist, not because it's the end of the world.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:54:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By innocent_bystander:
The economy is a wreck and the DOW is at 14,000.

Huh


The economy is far more complex than can be measured by any single indicator, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

One must take into account how bonds are selling to foreigners, the dollar index, the commodities markets, the stock markets, corporate earnings and sales, personal income and spending, and on and on.

Personally, I feel that Bernanke at the Fed merely postponed an inevitable recession with his rate cut a couple of weeks ago.

John

Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:55:13 AM EST

Originally Posted By motown_steve:
Don't forget the inevitable result of a weak dollar: inflation, especially on imported goods.


We already have massive inflation over the last 5 years in home prices, gasoline & ammo.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:55:38 AM EST
I predict a mild recession as we get to the end of the business cycle. There are going to be some adjustments in home prices, downward, but that will be good news for some people.

And I don't think a weak dollar is all that bad. Many of our industries will be better able to compete with Europe and other economies.

And I love the theory that the stock market is up because the dollar is down. D'oh! Aren't most of the businesses in the Dow American companies with their assets in dollars? Their stock value should be decreasing, right?

There will be flux, some people will win & some will lose but there will still be billions of foreign nationals who would imigrate to the US in a heartbeat.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 10:56:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By Coolio:
I would say, "no".
No major economic downfall in '08-'09.

The problem is more insidious.

The Dow will continue to look like things are fine, but they're not really.
This is because the Dow (and the other averages) represent the value of companies which are pretty much all multinational in their business operations. They no longer present an exclusive picture of the U.S. economy.
In other words, we could now see a rise in the unemployment figures here at home, a falling housing market, and an overall declining standard of living and the Dow will in all probability look great because it will include a lot of earnings originating largely overseas; not here.

Additionally, the recent increase in the Dow includes "increased" value in dollar terms only. This increase exists because the dollar has just dropped in value. In other words, part of the recent increase in value of the stock market is nothing more than the price being adjusted for inflation.

So, everybody gets to pretend that everything is fine. The dollar value of everybody's stock market portfolio continues to rise. But the actual puchasing power of that portfolio in dollars actually declines.



So, as long as you own stock in American companies, I guess there's no real issue here huh?
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 12:00:12 PM EST
height=8
Originally Posted By igorthesmall:
height=8
Originally Posted By JohnCrighton:
My stock and retirement portfolios are up 24% for the year. And I SUCK at picking good mutual funds. I got a 4% raise this year, wife got a 6% raise, and a $3500 bonus, all our debts are such that even if one of us lost a job we'd still be able to pay all our bills. We watch our spending but still have a decent amount left for toys, and we save 22% of our income to invest in our retirement.

So in answer to your question, yes - we are all doomed.


The dollar lost 5% of its value last month. Sorry to break it to you, but you didnt get a raise, you took a pay cut.


But my international investments shot through the roof. And if I don't buy any imported large ticket items for the next few years (have no plans to) then when the dollar rebounds (as it always does) then we'll be back to where we were a few years ago.

All you chicken-littles can go screaming that the sky is falling, but me? Instead of putting my money under a mattress, I'm going to buy some value stocks amd mutual funds, pay off debts, not live beyond my means, and not obsess about "what ifs" - it will shorten your life being paranoid and worried all the time. True, I'm not going to bury my head in the sand, but I'm not going to kill myself worrying about things I have little control over or assuming that everythig is about to hit the fan and go down the toilet.
Link Posted: 10/2/2007 12:07:05 PM EST
Dow up? I quess the Fed pumping near a 100 billion a few weeks ago always helps!
I am still paying more for bread, gas, milk and ammo. The Dow is not a good barometer of the general economy.
Link Posted: 10/8/2007 8:22:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By Coolio:
I would say, "no".
No major economic downfall in '08-'09.

The problem is more insidious.

The Dow will continue to look like things are fine, but they're not really.
This is because the Dow (and the other averages) represent the value of companies which are pretty much all multinational in their business operations. They no longer present an exclusive picture of the U.S. economy.
In other words, we could now see a rise in the unemployment figures here at home, a falling housing market, and an overall declining standard of living and the Dow will in all probability look great because it will include a lot of earnings originating largely overseas; not here.

Additionally, the recent increase in the Dow includes "increased" value in dollar terms only. This increase exists because the dollar has just dropped in value. In other words, part of the recent increase in value of the stock market is nothing more than the price being adjusted for inflation.

So, everybody gets to pretend that everything is fine. The dollar value of everybody's stock market portfolio continues to rise. But the actual puchasing power of that portfolio in dollars actually declines.

Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Top Top