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Posted: 8/9/2011 2:47:21 AM EDT
I'm just playing with some numbers.

A couple years ago, I determined that the averge value of a dollar had dropped 50% from the time I was born until I reached age 27. So let's assume that the dollar looses 50% of it's value every 30 years, which is an optimistic assumption. I was born in 1983. This gets us an annual inflation rate of approximately 2.26%. The claimed inflation rate from 1996 to 2010 averaged 2.43%, though if you look at inflation as the rate of change of GDP, it comes out to an average of 4.67%. Anyways, using the 2.26% number...

Now if you assume a cost of living of $40k/year at age 22 for our hypothetical college graduate, that inflation rate gives us a cost of living of $104.6k by age 65 and $163.6k by age 85.

Now let's assume that for every $1 spent, fifty cents is saved. So initially our 22 year old is making $60k a year and only spending $40k. Yes, I'm ignoring taxes. By age 65, that gets an income of $156.9k and living expenses of $104.6k. Very few people save a third of their income though, but let's just pretend our hypothetical person can save that much.

By age 30, that's a $197k nest egg. By age 55, that's just over a million in the bank. and by age 65 thats a $1.481 million nest egg.

Assuming a retirement of age 65, Mr. Hypothetic's nest egg is down to $921k by age 70 ($116.9k living expenses that year). By age 75 the nest egg is down to $295k thanks to an annual living expense of $130.8k. By age 77, living expenses are up to $133.7k, but at the end of that year our nest egg is down to $25k and Mr. Hypothetical will be broke within a few months of his 77th birthday. Assuming Mr. Hypothetical lives to be age 85, he'll die $1.2 million in debt.

Age______Cost of Living______Income______Annual Savings______Total Savings
22______$40,000 ______$60,000.0 ______$20,000.0 ______$20,000.0
23______$40,904.40 ______$61,356.6 ______$20,452.2 ______$40,452.2
24______$41,829.25 ______$62,743.9 ______$20,914.6 ______$61,366.8
25______$42,775.01 ______$64,162.5 ______$21,387.5 ______$82,754.3
26______$43,742.15 ______$65,613.2 ______$21,871.1 ______$104,625.4
27______$44,731.16 ______$67,096.7 ______$22,365.6 ______$126,991.0
28______$45,742.53 ______$68,613.8 ______$22,871.3 ______$149,862.3
29______$46,776.77 ______$70,165.2 ______$23,388.4 ______$173,250.6
30______$47,834.39 ______$71,751.6 ______$23,917.2 ______$197,167.8
31______$48,915.93 ______$73,373.9 ______$24,458.0 ______$221,625.8
32______$50,021.92 ______$75,032.9 ______$25,011.0 ______$246,636.8
33______$51,152.91 ______$76,729.4 ______$25,576.5 ______$272,213.2
34______$52,309.48 ______$78,464.2 ______$26,154.7 ______$298,368.0
35______$53,492.20 ______$80,238.3 ______$26,746.1 ______$325,114.1
36______$54,701.66 ______$82,052.5 ______$27,350.8 ______$352,464.9
37______$55,938.46 ______$83,907.7 ______$27,969.2 ______$380,434.1
38______$57,203.23 ______$85,804.8 ______$28,601.6 ______$409,035.7
39______$58,496.60 ______$87,744.9 ______$29,248.3 ______$438,284.0
40______$59,819.20 ______$89,728.8 ______$29,909.6 ______$468,193.6
41______$61,171.72 ______$91,757.6 ______$30,585.9 ______$498,779.5
42______$62,554.81 ______$93,832.2 ______$31,277.4 ______$530,056.9
43______$63,969.17 ______$95,953.8 ______$31,984.6 ______$562,041.5
44______$65,415.52 ______$98,123.3 ______$32,707.8 ______$594,749.2
45______$66,894.56 ______$100,341.8 ______$33,447.3 ______$628,196.5
46______$68,407.05 ______$102,610.6 ______$34,203.5 ______$662,400.0
47______$69,953.73 ______$104,930.6 ______$34,976.9 ______$697,376.9
48______$71,535.38 ______$107,303.1 ______$35,767.7 ______$733,144.6
49______$73,152.80 ______$109,729.2 ______$36,576.4 ______$769,721.0
50______$74,806.78 ______$112,210.2 ______$37,403.4 ______$807,124.4
51______$76,498.16 ______$114,747.2 ______$38,249.1 ______$845,373.5
52______$78,227.79 ______$117,341.7 ______$39,113.9 ______$884,487.4
53______$79,996.52 ______$119,994.8 ______$39,998.3 ______$924,485.6
54______$81,805.24 ______$122,707.9 ______$40,902.6 ______$965,388.2
55______$83,654.86 ______$125,482.3 ______$41,827.4 ______$1,007,215.7
56______$85,546.29 ______$128,319.4 ______$42,773.1 ______$1,049,988.8
57______$87,480.49 ______$131,220.7 ______$43,740.2 ______$1,093,729.1
58______$89,458.43 ______$134,187.6 ______$44,729.2 ______$1,138,458.3
59______$91,481.08 ______$137,221.6 ______$45,740.5 ______$1,184,198.8
60______$93,549.47 ______$140,324.2 ______$46,774.7 ______$1,230,973.6
61______$95,664.62 ______$143,496.9 ______$47,832.3 ______$1,278,805.9
62______$97,827.60 ______$146,741.4 ______$48,913.8 ______$1,327,719.7
63______$100,039.48 ______$150,059.2 ______$50,019.7 ______$1,377,739.4
64______$102,301.38 ______$153,452.1 ______$51,150.7 ______$1,428,890.1
65______$104,614.41 ______$156,921.6 ______$52,307.2 ______$1,481,197.3
66______$106,979.74 ______$0.0 ______($106,979.7)______$1,374,217.6
67______$109,398.55 ______$0.0 ______($109,398.6)______$1,264,819.0
68______$111,872.06 ______$0.0 ______($111,872.1)______$1,152,946.9
69______$114,401.48 ______$0.0 ______($114,401.5)______$1,038,545.5
70______$116,988.10 ______$0.0 ______($116,988.1)______$921,557.4
71______$119,633.20 ______$0.0 ______($119,633.2)______$801,924.2
72______$122,338.11 ______$0.0 ______($122,338.1)______$679,586.1
73______$125,104.17 ______$0.0 ______($125,104.2)______$554,481.9
74______$127,932.78 ______$0.0 ______($127,932.8)______$426,549.1
75______$130,825.34 ______$0.0 ______($130,825.3)______$295,723.8
76______$133,783.30 ______$0.0 ______($133,783.3)______$161,940.5
77______$136,808.14 ______$0.0 ______($136,808.1)______$25,132.3
78______$139,901.37 ______$0.0 ______($139,901.4)______($114,769.0)
79______$143,064.54 ______$0.0 ______($143,064.5)______($257,833.6)
80______$146,299.23 ______$0.0 ______($146,299.2)______($404,132.8)
81______$149,607.06 ______$0.0 ______($149,607.1)______($553,739.9)
82______$152,989.67 ______$0.0 ______($152,989.7)______($706,729.5)
83______$156,448.77 ______$0.0 ______($156,448.8)______($863,178.3)
84______$159,986.07 ______$0.0 ______($159,986.1)______($1,023,164.4)
85______$163,603.36 ______$0.0 ______($163,603.4)______($1,186,767.7)
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 2:58:06 AM EDT
[#1]
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.



Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:00:40 AM EDT
[#2]
I flushed my 401k and payed off some debt, because my 401k was tanking by 2008.  I am 34, about to be 35 and am pretty much planning on NOT getting anything out of SS.  I'll only be pissed because of all the $$ I've payed into it over my life.  It would be OK if I got that back, dollar for dollar... but then I'd be pissed because I could invested that myself, or made more money off of it somehow.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:00:48 AM EDT
[#3]
Well, it looks like we'll be finding out soon enough.



Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:01:30 AM EDT
[#4]
It seems that your model is only accounting for straight savings, i.e., that "Mr. Hypothetical" is taking the money and putting it in his mattress.  In that case, yes, he would eventually run out.  

Investments, on the other hand would allow for some return on those savings.  Historically, about 8%.  That being the case, he would be pulling down about $118K per year off of the principal of $1.48M you are using.  So long as the principal remains untouched, he would not go broke as it continues to grow.

So, yeah, if a guy just puts the money in a jar and lets it sit, then he's going to run out.  But if he is intelligent and invests wisely, then he should be fine.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:08:28 AM EDT
[#5]
Unsure why cost of living has to rise with income.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:09:00 AM EDT
[#6]
Currency was never devised as a store of wealth.  It is a medium of exchange.  Most of the handwringing about inflation revolves around a lack of understanding of this basic concept.  Storing wealth in cash is not only not smart due to inflation, it is not good for an economy.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:10:59 AM EDT
[#7]
Is retirement possible on just social security?

Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:13:28 AM EDT
[#8]
Once your house is paid off, your annual expenses will drop significantly.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:16:27 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
Is retirement possible on just social security?

Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.


That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:22:20 AM EDT
[#10]
There are many issues with your hypothetical, but I'll address the easiest.



Factor in the savings earning only 5% a year, and our Mr. Hypothetical will now have over $4 million at age 65, and it will continue to grow, since the investment gain is higher than the cost of living.  He'll have over $7 million at age 85.  When he dies, a big chunk of it will go back to the government as estate taxes.



Heck, if his savings only earns 3%, he'll still have over $2.6 million at age 65, and almost $1.4 million at age 85.



Oh, and social security is a suckers bet.  Anyone under 50 who thinks they'll get their full "benefits" is seriously deluded.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:22:41 AM EDT
[#11]
Until 1935 everyone found a way to live their lives without social security.



I understand the human desire to help others but in a country with an aging population we can't afford to pay everyone for the rest of their lives (while extending their lives through equally expensive healthcare).




I would love to see social security scrapped. Give everyone a one-time refund of their contributions and let then do what they want with their money. If they get to "retirement age" without enough to survive then they can keep on working, if they can't physically work and have no savings then they can go live with family (and possibly get some food assistance from government/charity).






Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:24:44 AM EDT
[#12]



Quoted:



Quoted:

Is retirement possible on just social security?



Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.




That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.



Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile


He doesn't have a God-given pre-existing Constitutionally-protected right to a comfortable retirement. Social Security is a massive failing ponzi scheme where the Government taxes you now, spends the money, and promises to take care of you when you are old (paid for by taxing your children and grandchildren).

 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:27:14 AM EDT
[#13]

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:27:17 AM EDT
[#14]
Quoted:
Storing wealth in cash is not only not smart due to inflation, it is not good for an economy.


Bohr is dead-on; that is why I buy Beanie Babies and Desert Storm trading cards.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:31:52 AM EDT
[#15]
My grandfather could have his work pension and social security checks stop right now and he'd be able to get by for several years without a problem.  His home is paid off, he grows most of his fruits and vegetables, his vehicles are all paid off, and he saved money most of his life; he invested a bit of it, but not all that much.  He also bought land which is currently worth more than 10 times what he paid for it.  More recently, he also got a good-sized chunk of change from a PD here in SoCal after a lawsuit although this doesn't really change the above facts.  He saved and didn't bite off more than he could chew regarding purchasing property and that forms the basis for his retirement.  His pension and Social Security and the like are icing on the cake for him.  He lives quite comfortably.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:34:35 AM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


I'm fine with giving up being able to receive old-age welfare.  I wouldn't want to take it anyways.  It needs to go.  People need to realze what they pay is a tax in a redistributive scheme, not some sort of payment for which they can expect a return.  Once you pay a tax it really isn't your money anymore.  If I have to pay the tax without ever getting anything later in order to end the programme I would be glad to do it.  My posterity would likely be grateful.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:35:07 AM EDT
[#17]




Quoted:

I flushed my 401k and payed off some debt, because my 401k was tanking by 2008. I am 34, about to be 35 and am pretty much planning on NOT getting anything out of SS. I'll only be pissed because of all the $$ I've payed into it over my life. It would be OK if I got that back, dollar for dollar... but then I'd be pissed because I could invested that myself, or made more money off of it somehow.




What does "flush" mean. Is that where you choose to give uncle sam a free advance on even more money?!?!?  Isn't that shit taxed 40%?!?!?





Geeze, this ain't like winning the lottery where you decide how to accept a free payoff, It's actually money you yourself have saved!!



What do you hope to gain?!??



Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:35:40 AM EDT
[#18]



Quoted:




I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',



We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.



However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.



But we will get some percentage of that number.



4073


No you won't.  The program is going to wither and die long before I get old enough to use it and I am 39.



 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:37:01 AM EDT
[#19]
I bet that 22 year old likes to drive a nice new car, he's earning 60k a year, he can afford a new car, maybe a $40k  pickup or mustang gt.......



That cost him $50k including interest over 5 years, if he had bought a clunker and invested the difference in the stock market making an average 4% over inflation he would have another $253k saved by age 66 (in present day dollars) equaling another 6 years of retirement covered.




Instead of the $300k home he wants he should buy a $100k fixer-upper, the savings there including interest could pay for another 20 years of retirement.




Take those two things together and instead of running out at 85 you have enough to live comfortably until 111.




Another thing to remember is that your expenses are typically lower in retirement, mortgage paid off, no gas for going to work everyday, eating at home instead of eating out, downsized to a smaller more manageable home etc.




Reduce your expenses by 1/3 in retirement and suddenly you are going to live in relative comfort for the rest of your life and have a good amount left to leave to your kids (or use to pay for the heart transplant that obamacare wont cover).









Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:38:24 AM EDT
[#20]
Your math is very much off.





you're assuming no returns on value , just straight savings. The average 401k or IRA return is along the lines of 8% to 10% depending on what cycle you look at.



Finally when you retire , that money isn't withdrawn from, normally it's rolled over to a insurance annuity which is around 6% even in a crummy market. So your guy would have a $50k-$60k yearly retirement check and preserve 100% of his wealth for future generations.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:39:41 AM EDT
[#21]



Quoted:




I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',



We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.



However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.



But we will get some percentage of that number.



4073



If I get anything (I'm 39 now) I will be pleasantly surprised.



I am not planning on getting anything and therefore am doing my best to save to pay for my own retirement.




The ones who will be in trouble are those who don't save for themselves and just assume Government will take care of them.





 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:39:46 AM EDT
[#22]
Quoted:
Unsure why cost of living has to rise with income.


It's the other way around. I'm not assuming that cost of living rises with income, I'm assuming that income will rise to match cost of living.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:41:31 AM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Is retirement possible on just social security?

Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.


That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

He doesn't have a God-given pre-existing Constitutionally-protected right to a comfortable retirement. Social Security is a massive failing ponzi scheme where the Government taxes you now, spends the money, and promises to take care of you when you are old (paid for by taxing your children and grandchildren).  



Sir you get it , Admiral Church apparently does not. If one will research the history of social security one would make many shocking discovereis. The first and foremmost being that you were never intended to collect it at all. When it was implemented they actually set the age at which you could collect slightly higher than the average age at which a man or woman was expected to live in the 1930's. The elegibility age was actually dropped to 65 in the 1960's. Additionally there is NO trust fund, all the monet goes into the general fund. Also a federal court ruled you have no right to collect social security. It is a scam and were the money not be taken from me forcefully I would have long ago invested it in a way that would have helped me. One last social security fun fact. When Social Security was created there were somewhere along the lines of 5 working people paying for one retiree, now it is 2 workers for every retiree. Do the math Admiral and tell me how that shit is sustainable.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:43:41 AM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


8%? lol

My 401(k)'s averaged DOWN by about 0.5% per year for the last 5 years. Down about 18% over the last five days though.

Yes, I'm part of the generation that graduated just in time to see things hit the shitter.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:44:22 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Is retirement possible on just social security?

Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.


That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

He doesn't have a God-given pre-existing Constitutionally-protected right to a comfortable retirement. Social Security is a massive failing ponzi scheme where the Government taxes you now, spends the money, and promises to take care of you when you are old (paid for by taxing your children and grandchildren).  



Right on SS should have never been started in the first place.

It is like any other socialist program.  right now there are thousands if not millions of people getting ssi who have never paid a dime in.  Soon they are going to base your pay out on what you make and you guys that have saved and have a nice nest egg will get fucked again. While the fucking dumb ass crack head that has a stroke and gets put in the local nursing home will get a total free ride.  You saved your money, he blew his on hookers and blow and now you can support him.  More fucked up than obammys check book.

I don't know if I will be able with or without SS.  

After the fucking I have taken starting in 2000 I doubt that anyone will.  This bull shit about averaging 8 percent only works if you don't lose half every 2 years[://It will be hard to retire with nothing.  If five years from now I have a roof over my family, some food and a job I will be very happy.  I know we are going to lose everything we have, its just to fucked up.  I hope that I can hold onto my property

Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:44:47 AM EDT
[#26]
Compounding interest, missing from your chart, is a big factor to leave out!



SS is a Ponzi transfer of wealth. It can't last much longer.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:48:39 AM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


8%? lol

My 401(k)'s averaged DOWN by about 0.5% per year for the last 5 years. Down about 18% over the last five days though.

Yes, I'm part of the generation that graduated just in time to see things hit the shitter.


Then you need to reassess your fund choices for those 401(k)s.  8% is not unheard of, even in this market.  Some people are doing even better than that.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:52:03 AM EDT
[#28]
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


I am not going to let them take my guns
I am not going to where that seat belt
I am not going to let them take my land.
I am not going to pay SS
I am not going to pay my tax
I am not going to pay tax on the moonshine I make.
etc etc etc

Yea right

Good luck you will be damn lucky if while they are not giving you your SS that they dont come and take your IRA and 401k
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:53:36 AM EDT
[#29]



Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:

Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.



Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though




8%? lol



My 401(k)'s averaged DOWN by about 0.5% per year for the last 5 years. Down about 18% over the last five days though.



Yes, I'm part of the generation that graduated just in time to see things hit the shitter.




Then you need to reassess your fund choices for those 401(k)s.  8% is not unheard of, even in this market.  Some people are doing even better than that.


You need to look at your 401k then and fire whoever is managing it.





The nations of Norway and Chile both have 'private' social security funds, they have averaged 13% and 9% (respectively) since inception which is a average of 30 years.



My 401k and IRA are down just about 2% overall this year, prior to the crash I was up about 35% or so. My retirement funds are great, but then I pay attention to them which people don't. If you care about your future and your kids future, you'll do some serious research into investing.



 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:53:56 AM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:
I flushed my 401k and payed off some debt, because my 401k was tanking by 2008.  I am 34, about to be 35 and am pretty much planning on NOT getting anything out of SS.


Sounds like you've also guaranteed that you'll have nothing but SS.  How are you planning on living, with no 401(k)?  It would be a huge stretch for anyone to assume you have an IRA or any other tax-advantaged or tax-deferred account invested in growth-oriented products.  How are you not going to be voting for Barack Obama IV and demanding more free goodies because it isn't fair that you worked your whole life and have nothing to show for it?

I weep for our country when someone in their 30s cashes out their retirement and gives up on it because they don't have the slightest clue about money and math.  And that that person is allowed to, and will be, voting, and that their vote will counteract that of someone who doesn't live for today.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:55:08 AM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


You sir are heavily invested into the entitlement system , this is why we can not make the changes we need to , to save the economy.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 3:55:33 AM EDT
[#32]



Quoted:




I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',



We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.



However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.



But we will get some percentage of that number.



4073


That's being part of the problem.



"I paid into it" doesn't mean a damned thing when it's insolvent.  



It's just more welfare crying.  Please step to the end of the line where Bernie Madoff's clients already have their "I already paid into it" claims all filled out.
 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:07:07 AM EDT
[#33]



if retirement is "possible" with SS, then it should be even more "possible" WITHOUT it since you won't be paying for the cost of government.


Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:10:15 AM EDT
[#34]
Ok , here is your math revised , using the same #s as you have (Our calculating programs are off very slightly) I've taken your numbers and scenarios and used compounding interest which you have not.

I've got 3 scenarios set up , 6% , 8% and 10% , I personally have averaged 20% or so over the past 4 years in my investments. The national averages of the two nations who have private retirements are 9% and 13% (Chile & Norway). State pension retirement funds average 6% to 8% depending on which state you look at. If you're not seeing this in your own 401k or IRA then dump your company and go with someone else.


I've attached the spreadsheet https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apo1scQacB7XdFhBQ3hXV0JYWWJqUTFfM2tSdFBlMUE&hl=en_US

Anyways , with my 4 scenarios (no interest, 6% , 8% and 10%) we end up with these 4 amounts : $1,480,834.54 , $5,514,512.77, $9,366,769.56, $16,431,713.97

So , with a 10% average interest amount you'd have nearly fifteen million dollars more to retire on than your no-interest rate.

However , with all of these ,let's roll them over into 6% annuity accounts and see what our yearly income is to live off of : $88,850.07,$330,870.77,$562,006.17,$985,902.84

So , even with your scenario you'd be earning $88,000 per year from an annuity which would never run out. Sure it would be a pay cut from average earnings of around $140k a year, but it's not bad. In the best case scenario you'd be earning a million dollars a year off the interest alone, and pass over sixteen million dollars to your children.

So yes, retirement without social security is possible, you just can't be a idiot or vote for Obama.

Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:16:47 AM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


I am not going to let them take my guns
I am not going to where that seat belt
I am not going to let them take my land.
I am not going to pay SS
I am not going to pay my tax
I am not going to pay tax on the moonshine I make.
etc etc etc

Yea right

Good luck you will be damn lucky if while they are not giving you your SS that they dont come and take your IRA and 401k



I'm not going to spell 'wear' correctly!

P.S. If you paid tax on 'shine.... It wouldn't be shine ;)


If throwing sme money at a 401k and becoming a multi-millionare is so easy, why are most retirees forced to live such modest lives? If I had 15mil in the bank I'd be jumping out of airplanes....my airplanes.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:21:21 AM EDT
[#36]
Who cares about social security? The real issue is medical care. I will always find a way to buy groceries and keep a roof over my head. The problem is no matter how much money I can sock away it will not be enough to keep me alive without good health insurance. Aside from a few lucky ones, the bulk of seniors I know literally spend a fortune on health care each year(although it's not actually their cash being spent).
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:22:01 AM EDT
[#37]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:




Is retirement possible on just social security?
Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.

That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.
Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile





He doesn't have a God-given pre-existing Constitutionally-protected right to a comfortable retirement. Social Security is a massive failing ponzi scheme where the Government taxes you now, spends the money, and promises to take care of you when you are old (paid for by taxing your children and grandchildren).  

Sir you get it , Admiral Church apparently does not. If one will research the history of social security one would make many shocking discovereis. The first and foremmost being that you were never intended to collect it at all. When it was implemented they actually set the age at which you could collect slightly higher than the average age at which a man or woman was expected to live in the 1930's. The elegibility age was actually dropped to 65 in the 1960's. Additionally there is NO trust fund, all the monet goes into the general fund. Also a federal court ruled you have no right to collect social security. It is a scam and were the money not be taken from me forcefully I would have long ago invested it in a way that would have helped me. One last social security fun fact. When Social Security was created there were somewhere along the lines of 5 working people paying for one retiree, now it is 2 workers for every retiree. Do the math Admiral and tell me how that shit is sustainable.









What the fuck?  I never said I agree with SS.  I was just clarifying OP's statement.    Seem to be a lot of people with reading comprehension issues in this thread.
 
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:22:10 AM EDT
[#38]
My planning does not include a penny of SSI.

Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:33:34 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


I will not enslave my children nor yours to pay for my SS.   On the contrary, if you're willing to enslave mine, we might have some short words.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:39:42 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


I will not enslave my children nor yours to pay for my SS.   On the contrary, if you're willing to enslave mine, we might have some short words.


I feel bad for those who participated in the Ponzi scheme, however if I could stop paying into it I'd let them keep what they already have stolen from me.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:44:25 AM EDT
[#41]
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


ABSOLUTE AND TOTAL HORSESHIT!

SINCE 2000 THE RATE OF RETURN HAS BEEN 3%- ABOUT WHAT THE "OFFICIAL" RATE OF INFLATION HAS BEEN.

Yea, I know "historically", that doesn't mean SHIT when YOU are on the bottom of the cycle! Ask me how I know!

The only reason that people MUST gamble with their money in order to have enough to retire is because we have an inflationary monetary policy- and yes, the markets, for most people, are little more than craps tables.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:45:54 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Is retirement possible on just social security?

Do you like the taste of Ol Roy ?  I suggest those contemplating it get a hold of local churches so they can find out what if there are any senior food programs because your going to be living poorly. It is one of the reaons that we should do away with Social Security, I know best how to put my money away for my retirment and my future. Social Security is one huge ponzi scheme.


That's not the issue.  His thought is that without SS to supplement his retirement savings, he's concerned he won't be able to retire comfortably.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

He doesn't have a God-given pre-existing Constitutionally-protected right to a comfortable retirement. Social Security is a massive failing ponzi scheme where the Government taxes you now, spends the money, and promises to take care of you when you are old (paid for by taxing your children and grandchildren).  



Sir you get it , Admiral Church apparently does not. If one will research the history of social security one would make many shocking discovereis. The first and foremmost being that you were never intended to collect it at all. When it was implemented they actually set the age at which you could collect slightly higher than the average age at which a man or woman was expected to live in the 1930's. The elegibility age was actually dropped to 65 in the 1960's. Additionally there is NO trust fund, all the monet goes into the general fund. Also a federal court ruled you have no right to collect social security. It is a scam and were the money not be taken from me forcefully I would have long ago invested it in a way that would have helped me. One last social security fun fact. When Social Security was created there were somewhere along the lines of 5 working people paying for one retiree, now it is 2 workers for every retiree. Do the math Admiral and tell me how that shit is sustainable.

What the fuck?  I never said I agree with SS.  I was just clarifying OP's statement.    Seem to be a lot of people with reading comprehension issues in this thread.
 



I think he spoke for himself adequately are you his publicist?  I have no reading comprehension problem, however by YOU being his proxy it gives the appearance you concur. Additionally I do not give a shit what his rationale, It is an entitlement mentality. Almost everyone in this nation has adopted an entitlement mentality, I want liberty and nothing is guaranteed or secure in liberty. I will however take my chances.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:48:20 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


ABSOLUTE AND TOTAL HORSESHIT!

SINCE 2000 THE RATE OF RETURN HAS BEEN 3%- ABOUT WHAT THE "OFFICIAL" RATE OF INFLATION HAS BEEN.
Yea, I know "historically", that doesn't mean SHIT when YOU are on the bottom of the cycle! Ask me how I know!

The only reason that people MUST gamble with their money in order to have enough to retire is because we have an inflationary monetary policy- and yes, the markets, for most people, are little more than craps tables.


I would find a new broker.  I've been seeing returns significantly higher than that.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:50:10 AM EDT
[#44]
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.


There is no "your SS income".  Your money, and mine, has been taken to hand out to others today.  When the time comes, if we ever get SS, it's because it was taken from someone else.

Those who are getting checks today have my money.  Since I can't get it back from them, the only place I can "get it back from" is your kids and grandkids.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:50:22 AM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


You sir are heavily invested into the entitlement system , this is why we can not make the changes we need to , to save the economy.


Well, I too am "heavily invested" in the entitlement system in a an involuntary way. You see, I will have paid in HALF A MILLION DOLLARS INTO THAT FUCKING SYSTEM by the time I retire- self employed, max contribution for over 40 years buddy..... So Yea, I'm "invested" in it, and yes, I'd like something to show for it.When you have a half a million in then come and tell me how happy you are to just walk away. I'm guessing you're a 6 percenter paying in a whopping $3k a year- big fucking deal.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:51:51 AM EDT
[#46]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


8%? lol

My 401(k)'s averaged DOWN by about 0.5% per year for the last 5 years. Down about 18% over the last five days though.

Yes, I'm part of the generation that graduated just in time to see things hit the shitter.


Five years is too short of a timeframe to look at.  The 8% is averaged out over decades.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:52:11 AM EDT
[#47]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Maybe not if you hide your retirement savings under your mattress.

Average stock market return is 8%. Not this year obviously, though


ABSOLUTE AND TOTAL HORSESHIT!

SINCE 2000 THE RATE OF RETURN HAS BEEN 3%- ABOUT WHAT THE "OFFICIAL" RATE OF INFLATION HAS BEEN.
Yea, I know "historically", that doesn't mean SHIT when YOU are on the bottom of the cycle! Ask me how I know!

The only reason that people MUST gamble with their money in order to have enough to retire is because we have an inflationary monetary policy- and yes, the markets, for most people, are little more than craps tables.


I would find a new broker.  I've been seeing returns significantly higher than that.


Mine have been up as much as 11% at times during the last ten years, mostly sideways though....
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:54:31 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',

We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.

However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.

But we will get some percentage of that number.

4073


You sir are heavily invested into the entitlement system , this is why we can not make the changes we need to , to save the economy.


Well, I too am "heavily invested" in the entitlement system in a an involuntary way. You see, I will have paid in HALF A MILLION DOLLARS INTO THAT FUCKING SYSTEM by the time I retire- self employed, max contribution for over 40 years buddy..... So Yea, I'm "invested" in it, and yes, I'd like something to show for it.When you have a half a million in then come and tell me how happy you are to just walk away. I'm guessing you're a 6 percenter paying in a whopping $3k a year- big fucking deal.


You have no idea what I have paid so quit assuming any damn thing.  YOU are obviously relying on government, again therein lies a problem.
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:57:22 AM EDT
[#49]



Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:



I don't like the sound of you guys just giving up on your retiree SS income.  It bugs me when I hear people say things like 'I don't expect to see a dime of that...',



We paid it and I am not letting the government rob me of at least partial repayment.



However, I realize we may have benefits reduced from current projections.



But we will get some percentage of that number.



4073




You sir are heavily invested into the entitlement system , this is why we can not make the changes we need to , to save the economy.




Well, I too am "heavily invested" in the entitlement system in a an involuntary way. You see, I will have paid in HALF A MILLION DOLLARS INTO THAT FUCKING SYSTEM by the time I retire- self employed, max contribution for over 40 years buddy..... So Yea, I'm "invested" in it, and yes, I'd like something to show for it.When you have a half a million in then come and tell me how happy you are to just walk away. I'm guessing you're a 6 percenter paying in a whopping $3k a year- big fucking deal.


Sorry but your half million is gone, used to pay for other people's entitlements. If you do get anything out of social security it wont be paid by you it will be paid by all of our children and grandchildren.

 



(and before you accuse me of being a 6 percenter I run my own business too and most years both the wife and I max out our "contribution")
Link Posted: 8/9/2011 4:58:28 AM EDT
[#50]
Quoted:

Well, I too am "heavily invested" in the entitlement system in a an involuntary way. You see, I will have paid in HALF A MILLION DOLLARS INTO THAT FUCKING SYSTEM by the time I retire- self employed, max contribution for over 40 years buddy..... So Yea, I'm "invested" in it, and yes, I'd like something to show for it.When you have a half a million in then come and tell me how happy you are to just walk away. I'm guessing you're a 6 percenter paying in a whopping $3k a year- big fucking deal.


You did not "pay in".  There is no "account".  Your money was taken and handed to others.  Any check you receive must be taken from others.

And you have not paid half a million in SS payroll taxes.  Your payroll deduction is 6.2% of your income up to $106,800 or about $6600 per year.  If you made that salary or more for 40 years, the absolute most you could have ever paid in would be about $265,000  And if you're at the end of your career now, you paid in far, far less decades ago.  Even adding the 6.2% that you never see in your paycheck, you haven't come close to $500,000
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