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Posted: 10/15/2008 1:59:23 PM EDT
We are talking the whole US economy.  Is our economy worse than 1933 right now or do you think it is not there yet but going to be worse than 1933?
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 1:59:57 PM EDT
[#1]
I would say "Almost as bad or as bad" but not worse. That still means really fucking bad.

ETA / Correction: It is not that bad YET. I just read your title more carefully. My thought is that it WILL be.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:00:51 PM EDT
[#2]
I thought you were talking about NFA in '34.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:01:26 PM EDT
[#3]
It's not as bad as it looks, and it's definately not as bad as 33.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:01:35 PM EDT
[#4]

Quoted:
I would say "Almost as bad or as bad" but not worse. That still means really fucking bad.

ETA / Correction: It is not that bad YET. I just read your title more carefully. My thought is that it WILL be.


How will it be worse?
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:02:03 PM EDT
[#5]

Quoted:
I thought you were talking about NFA in '34.


It is already MUCH worse than 1933 in that regard.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:02:16 PM EDT
[#6]
The cat is bouncing or it is getting better in my opinion or atleast my shares are doing good... Then again anytime the government muscles its way into anything that it shouldn't is always a bad sign.  By more ammo, learn how to shoot a rifle if you already don't know how!
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:02:45 PM EDT
[#7]
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.

Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:02:55 PM EDT
[#8]
No, it is not and nor will it be...IF the government allows the market to work this out.  It will only reach the depth of the Great Depression if the government tries to fix it through increased taxes and regulation.

ETA: In before Dave_A tells us that the government needs to do more.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:02:56 PM EDT
[#9]


Our Ecomony
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:03:09 PM EDT
[#10]
Hell no. We cant even tell if we are really in a recession.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:04:13 PM EDT
[#11]
Sorry, no Dust Bowl yet..  Mass displacement of middle westerners.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:05:19 PM EDT
[#12]
Just another indicator; the DOW would have to be roughly 2000 points right now.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:05:56 PM EDT
[#13]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I would say "Almost as bad or as bad" but not worse. That still means really fucking bad.

ETA / Correction: It is not that bad YET. I just read your title more carefully. My thought is that it WILL be.


How will it be worse?



Give it time. It's on the way. We've only been seeing the muscle-twitches before the big stroke. When all the leaders of the world (read: PANDERING, LYING, BLOWING SMOKE POLITICIANS) can say is that they "hope" the EXTREME measures that they've been taking will help reduce the pain -- we're headed for some "interesting" and tough times. C'mon... why do we even have to get into the details here. Your gut should be telling you that things are VERY wrong. This ain't some chicken little fantasy here. The sky is really going to fall at some point not far down the road in regards to the economy. Let me reverse your question: how will it be BETTER???


ETA: I've already considered the notion that the politicians have fostered the panic to take more power and control. That's certainly not without merit. But there are just WAY too many great financial minds admitting that we've got some REAL problems here for me to think everything is fine. And as has already been said here... the FACT that the .gov is now deeply involved in this automatically makes the situation FUBAR by itself. And with the very real possibility that our new president will be someone who'd make Karl Marx proud... how do you think the markets will respond to that?
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:07:05 PM EDT
[#14]
Is that the dividing line now that things have dropped so much? Is it as bad as than the Great Depression?

You can't be peddling that as being our measurement for the economy doing poorly...
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:08:55 PM EDT
[#15]
The current economy is bad enough to make the 1933 economy look like the fucking 90's!  Stocks will not only be worthless, but they will become deadly poisonous as well.  Gas will never be lower than $5 a gallon and at some point will refuse to catch on fire.  Our water will turn to blood.  Not only will all the living people in the US die from starvation, suicide, or rioting, but dead people will actually start rising from the grave and sell the DOW below zero into negative territory.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:10:58 PM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:11:19 PM EDT
[#17]
I thought the reference was the rise of HITLER and the SS

Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:11:47 PM EDT
[#18]

Quoted:
Just another indicator; the DOW would have to be roughly 2000 points right now.


I caluclated it.  1560 to equal the drop that happened by 1933.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:13:54 PM EDT
[#19]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
I would say "Almost as bad or as bad" but not worse. That still means really fucking bad.

ETA / Correction: It is not that bad YET. I just read your title more carefully. My thought is that it WILL be.


How will it be worse?



Give it time. It's on the way. We've only been seeing the muscle-twitches before the big stroke. When all the leaders of the world (read: PANDERING, LYING, BLOWING SMOKE POLITICIANS) can say is that they "hope" the EXTREME measures that they've been taking will help reduce the pain -- we're headed for some "interesting" and tough times. C'mon... why do we even have to get into the details here. Your gut should be telling you that things are VERY wrong. This ain't some chicken little fantasy here. The sky is really going to fall at some point not far down the road in regards to the economy. Let me reverse your question: how will it be BETTER???


ETA: I've already considered the notion that the politicians have fostered the panic to take more power and control. That's certainly not without merit. But there are just WAY too many great financial minds admitting that we've got some REAL problems here for me to think everything is fine. And as has already been said here... the FACT that the .gov is now deeply involved in this automatically makes the situation FUBAR by itself. And with the very real possibility that our new president will be someone who'd make Karl Marx proud... how do you think the markets will respond to that?


While I agree with most of what you said, you still didn't say how it will be worse.

I do very much agree, obama with a totally compliant Congress will be one of the few ways to make our economy collapse.

However if I have faith in Congress to do anything it is to not be compliant with anybody.  Not even the obamasieh.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:14:39 PM EDT
[#20]

Quoted:
The current economy is bad enough to make the 1933 economy look like the fucking 90's!  Stocks will not only be worthless, but they will become deadly poisonous as well.  Gas will never be lower than $5 a gallon and at some point will refuse to catch on fire.  Our water will turn to blood.  Not only will all the living people in the US die from starvation, suicide, or rioting, but dead people will actually start rising from the grave and sell the DOW below zero into negative territory.


Did Lt director jack your account?
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:15:55 PM EDT
[#21]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The current economy is bad enough to make the 1933 economy look like the fucking 90's!  Stocks will not only be worthless, but they will become deadly poisonous as well.  Gas will never be lower than $5 a gallon and at some point will refuse to catch on fire.  Our water will turn to blood.  Not only will all the living people in the US die from starvation, suicide, or rioting, but dead people will actually start rising from the grave and sell the DOW below zero into negative territory.


Did Lt director jack your account?


No, but Mr. Sarcasm did!

Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:17:30 PM EDT
[#22]

Quoted:
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.



+1
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:17:47 PM EDT
[#23]

Quoted:
Is that the dividing line now that things have dropped so much? Is it as bad as than the Great Depression?

You can't be peddling that as being our measurement for the economy doing poorly...


No I'm not.  I AM using it as a definition of "OMFG THE ECONOMY HAS COLLAPSED!!!!!!"

I personally don't think we are even to 2001 recession time yet and definately not 1980 recession.  I do think it is possible to GET to worse than 01.  I wait to see if obama gets elected and to see what he is allowed to do by Congress before seeing if we get to 1980.  It would take some real fucking up to get to 1933.  But of course if anyone could do it, it would be Congress with Obama.  But then I'm an optomist and I think Congress will be obama's biggest problem.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:19:02 PM EDT
[#24]
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:19:22 PM EDT
[#25]

No, it is not and nor will it be...IF the government allows the market to work this out.


How will the market work it out if it didnt work it out in 1929? The gov't didn't do shit in 1929 and it got even worse. Farmers were destroying their inventory while people starved for Gods sake. I agree that at this point higher taxes would be DISASTROUS and regulation is moot, they SHOULDVE regulated before it got to this point. Freddie mac and fannie mae acted recklessly and why not? Who was to stop them? the best that the Gov't can do now is bail out but with stipulations. (No free handouts)  They act as a loner to the banks and get special stocks in exchange. Once the economy improves they will convert that back into cash and get some or even most of the money back.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:19:23 PM EDT
[#26]
In 1933 unemployment was over 25%. The US economy had shrunk by more than 25%. A Department of Commerce study found that over 40% of all mortgages were in default (more than 90 days delinquent).  

We aren't even in the same area code yet.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:19:55 PM EDT
[#27]
The question is whether or not it's as bad now as it was in '29.  The crash came in '29 but the worst of it was '32 & '33.  By 1935 things were improving.  The point is that you don't feel the effects of this kind of thing overnight.  It takes time, possibly 2-3 years, to get a true measure of how bad it really is.

I'm thinking it's very nearly as bad and possibly worse than 1929.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:20:04 PM EDT
[#28]
I find it interesting that in one thread you said you haven't lost much because you moved most your investments to cash, yet you entertain yourself in every other thread by incessantly provoking the "chicken littles"  

It is disingenuous to say one thing and do another.

The most honest thing you can do is admit that you don't know any more than anybody else, sit back and enjoy the ride.  Maybe even learn a thing or two.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:21:18 PM EDT
[#29]

Quoted:
However if I have faith in Congress to do anything it is to not be compliant with anybody.  Not even the obamasieh.



I wish I had that same faith as you do in those idiots (the very same ones who helped to make this mess in the first place and who are now IN-CHARGE of "fixing" it).

I don't have a crystal ball. I'm no econ expert. And even if I was, most of those guys are just guessing at this point as well. But just like most of them, my gut tells me that we're going to be getting re-acquainted with the more humble lifestyles of our ancestors in the not-too-distant future. So I'm actively exhorting all friends and family to get their priorities straight now and simplify their lives while they can still do it the way they choose to do so.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:22:41 PM EDT
[#30]
It's only just begun.

Sorry but that's just reality.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:22:44 PM EDT
[#31]
Our economy is doing well.  It in no way compares to the crash/depression of the late 20's and 30's.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:22:59 PM EDT
[#32]

Quoted:
We are talking the whole US economy.  Is our economy worse than 1933 right now or do you think it is not there yet but going to be worse than 1933?


Our economy is about where we were in 1929.  Market is crashing, banks are failing, and consumer demand is evaporating, but we don't have a 25% economic contraction yet or 25% unemployment yet, so we have a ways to go before 1933.

Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:23:23 PM EDT
[#33]

Quoted:
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.



Unemployment is 11% if you count discouraged workers.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:23:48 PM EDT
[#34]
NEWS FLASH

Sells of Big Screen T.V.'s are UP....................
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:24:32 PM EDT
[#35]
An excellent question to reveal those who lack a historical perspective. Bravo!
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:25:53 PM EDT
[#36]
The great depression wasn't the great depression because the stock market crashed. That would have created a recession.

The great depression was the great depression because the banking system collapsed.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:25:54 PM EDT
[#37]
Holy SHEEPSHIT I am so damned sick of "Oh poor us things are so bad" threads.  Jumpin' Jesus, people, relax, watch some TV, go to sleep, and get up and go to work.  Quit whining.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:26:46 PM EDT
[#38]

Quoted:

Quoted:
i152.photobucket.com/albums/s171/CLETUS_08/fail-owned-study-spanish-in-egypt-f.jpg

Our Ecomony


WTF?



I found that to be hilarious. Study Spanish In Mexico.....with pic of Egyptian Pyramids.


Reminds me of the people who run our Government and financial institutions.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:27:10 PM EDT
[#39]
Oh, one way things are worse.  In 1929, Federal tax burden was 10.4% (rose to 17% by 1933).  In 2008 it is 30.8%.  The government's capacity to "spread the wealth" to help the downtrodden is much more limited because it's already taking a big piece of the pie.

Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:28:38 PM EDT
[#40]

Quoted:
It's only just begun.

Sorry but that just reality.



Yup. I've been coming at this question from the point of what WILL be, not what we are seeing now. We aren't seeing jack so far in regards to recession or depression. But we will be. There's not a bit of doubt in my mind. I HOPE that I'm wrong. But I'm not betting on it. It's not business as usual at my house. Even my wife, who'd rather stick her head in the sand and pretend that we're on a beach holiday than deal with the notion of survival during such times, has been actively preparing for a crash. She watches the markets closely, as she's responsible for bond investments and revenue. She's no expert, but she knows what she sees on a daily basis and it ain't good. In fact, I should be thankful for this whole economic convulsion, as it's turned my once-sheeple wife into a fellow survivalist.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:29:11 PM EDT
[#41]

Quoted:
NEWS FLASH

Sells of Big Screen T.V.'s are UP....................


Fed: Economy sinks deeper into rut
Beige book shows business conditions weaken across nation, as stressed consumers decrease their spending.

AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS

   * Fed: Economy sinks deeper into rut
   * Exec comp rules won't pay off big
   * Bernanke: No quick recovery
   * What the bailout does for you
   * Another huge Dow loss

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     Cutting taxes

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WASHINGTON (AP) -- The country has sunk deeper into an economic rut, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday, reflecting mounting damage from the financial and credit crises.

The Fed's new snapshot of business conditions around the nation showed economic activity weakened across all of the Fed's 12 regional districts. Consumer spending - which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity - slumped in most Fed regions. Manufacturing also slowed in most areas.

Some businesses had become more pessimistic about the economic outlook, the Fed said.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:30:12 PM EDT
[#42]

Quoted:

Quoted:
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.



Unemployment is 11% if you count discouraged workers.


If you count illegal aliens, Unemployment is probably somewhere between -5% to -10%
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:42:34 PM EDT
[#43]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.



Unemployment is 11% if you count discouraged workers.


If you count illegal aliens, Unemployment is probably somewhere between -5% to -10%



Discouraged workers fucking piss me off
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:43:45 PM EDT
[#44]

Quoted:

No, it is not and nor will it be...IF the government allows the market to work this out.


How will the market work it out if it didnt work it out in 1929? The gov't didn't do shit in 1929 and it got even worse. Farmers were destroying their inventory while people starved for Gods sake. I agree that at this point higher taxes would be DISASTROUS and regulation is moot, they SHOULDVE regulated before it got to this point. Freddie mac and fannie mae acted recklessly and why not? Who was to stop them? the best that the Gov't can do now is bail out but with stipulations. (No free handouts)  They act as a loner to the banks and get special stocks in exchange. Once the economy improves they will convert that back into cash and get some or even most of the money back.


Go do a little reading.  The .gov did a LOT of shit.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:45:45 PM EDT
[#45]

Quoted:
I find it interesting that in one thread you said you haven't lost much because you moved most your investments to cash, yet you entertain yourself in every other thread by incessantly provoking the "chicken littles"  

It is disingenuous to say one thing and do another.

The most honest thing you can do is admit that you don't know any more than anybody else, sit back and enjoy the ride.  Maybe even learn a thing or two.


I learn everyday.  I moved my stocks because I thought the market was going to be flat for the next few.  Not because I think it is going to collapse.

4% is better than less than 4%  It is all about RoR.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:48:49 PM EDT
[#46]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
6-7% unemployment now

25%, IIRC, during depression.



Unemployment is 11% if you count discouraged workers.


If you count illegal aliens, Unemployment is probably somewhere between -5% to -10%


Yep, it is about 6%.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:49:47 PM EDT
[#47]
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:51:38 PM EDT
[#48]

Quoted:
NEWS FLASH

Sells of Big Screen T.V.'s are UP....................


Intel's profits were UP this quarter. "People buying more laptops- margin is greater on those chips."

We're not even in line for the tickets for another depression, yet.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:54:17 PM EDT
[#49]

Quoted:


Go do a little reading.  The .gov did a LOT of shit.


True dat! Had they kept their hands off it's possible the market would have come out of it much sooner.
Link Posted: 10/15/2008 2:56:19 PM EDT
[#50]
Not even close to 1933.

The Dow went down 90% in the Depression.
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