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Posted: 10/17/2008 12:31:03 PM EST
I've got some money earning a steady 4+ %. I want to take 60K and spread it around the market. Is now the time? Have we hit bottom? Will there be a steady long tern recovery? I'll be back in a few hours to check your opinions.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:38:23 PM EST
Warren Buffet seems to think it's time.


So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.


A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:39:36 PM EST
I think so, and I have put my money where my mouth is.

Unfortunately I don't have enough to take advantage of all the great deals out there right now.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:41:07 PM EST
I wish I had a lot more disposable income with which to put into the market right now. I'm putting in as much as I can. I just wish I had more.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:41:08 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/17/2008 12:42:46 PM EST by luvpilot]
If your earning 4+ I'd leave it alone.
It's about capital preservation for me until the election is over.
Course if I knew what the hell I was talking about I wouldn't be working for a living
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:42:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/17/2008 12:42:37 PM EST by luvpilot]
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:52:31 PM EST
Wait until the Christmas sales reports come out. Things should really bottom out by then and possibly start a rebound in the spring.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:55:47 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:56:22 PM EST
It hasn't collapsed yet. But it's coming 6-9 months
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:57:17 PM EST

Originally Posted By BangStick1:
Wait until the Christmas sales reports come out. Things should really bottom out by then and possibly start a rebound in the spring.

id imagine christmas is gonna be bad for many.

maybe that will be the bottom.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:57:50 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/17/2008 12:58:09 PM EST by raven]
I'm being beat apart in it trying to figure out the bounces. it keeps going down down down, relentless
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 12:58:27 PM EST

Grasping 'Radical' Economic Change

October 10, 2008

Eventually, Rubenstein says, he suspects "once in a lifetime" buying opportunities will come of this crisis.
The leaders in our government today, and the leaders of the business world today, do not really have a clear understanding of what needs to be done. I'm not sure anybody does. Everything that has been thought of has been tried and it hasn't yet worked. I do think that at some point we will hit a bottom and people will say this is as far down as the markets should go. The problem is that by the time we hit that bottom, it may well be that many companies do not survive, that unemployment has gone up much higher than people can tolerate, that the credit system is not fatally but near-fatally wounded, and the entire economic construct under which the globe has conducted itself has to be radically changed. Nobody has ever anticipated something like this, nobody has ever seen anything like this, and it's therefore taxing everybody's abilities to find out what the solution is.
I'm hesitant to be a bearer of bad news, but I'm afraid that some of the things we're talking about today-stock declines, credit crunches, things like that-are just the tip of the iceberg. We haven't yet seen the declines in commercial real estate, the rising unemployment, the credit card defaults, the student loan defaults or inability to fund student loans, and the general decline in business sales and consumer activity. All of those things combined will have a very devastating impact, not only on our economy but also [on] the global economy. It's clear now that the concept that some had proposed, that there is a decoupling of the U.S. economy from the rest of the world's, is just not the case. It's clear that the U.S. economy drives the world economy, and we're going to see downturns essentially all around the world.

Private equity firms are in an enviable position because most of us are privately held. We have a fair amount of capital available to us, and therefore we have the ability to invest at probably what will be historically low prices.

I wish I could say I saw the bottom. We're closer to the bottom than we've been in the past. But I think before we actually hit the bottom there will be some major bankruptcies and some enormous further losses of money.

But if I can buy something at one time or two times cash flow, I probably don't need any leverage. So what you'll see is private equity firms buying things at much, much reduced prices, in which case they'll need less leverage to get the returns they want.

third, they'll invest much more outside the United States in emerging markets. While those countries have problems as well, the prices are still much cheaper there than they are in the United States.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 2:56:19 PM EST
I would wait until next year (just like a Cubs fan!). Consumer spending is tanking and as CS represents nearly two thirds of U.S. economic output-corporate earnings will decline. Stocks that look "cheap" today will look even cheaper months from now.

I won't even get into the effects of the credit crunch on the economy other than to say the full effects of it have yet to be felt.

The downside risks outweigh the upside in deploying new capital to the market for the foreseeable future.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 3:34:46 PM EST
Actually last week was the time to get in the stock market.
Ask Dave A.

Why catch a falling knife? You in the circus?

This market will end with an L not a V or W.
You'll have plenty of time once the crash is finally complete to
buy in and "get rich". Just don't expect the patient to recover
without years and years of therapy.

If your in a hurry to blow up your retirement account definitely buy now.
If the Buff loses a few million he'll be fine. Will you?
You set up like Warren?
Has it occurred to you that maybe Uncle Warren is talking his book?

Anymore questions? Get educated. Go to http://www.tickerforum.org
and find out what's really going down. Arfcom is a great site for guns.
It sucks for economics. No offense intended to the folks on arfcom but it is true.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 3:43:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/17/2008 3:44:41 PM EST by DDiggler]
I played around a bit at the beginning of the week but got out temporarily.

I might play some quick money here and there.

However, the bailout fixed nothing. Bad news keeps coming. We may very well elect a socialist who will devastate business.

When the gov't stops tinkering, then it might get better. If anyone can fly the stock market plane right into the ground, the government can.

I'm keeping my finger on the pulse, but I'm not committing.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 3:44:06 PM EST
No, not yet.

I closed my short positions out Mon. morning though.

My biggest holding in the "growth" portion of my portfolio is now BEARX.

I'm trying to decide when to close that position, and possibly my treasuries position.

I'd stay where you are until all the bad news about the Christmas season is discounted, see where we are then.
Link Posted: 10/17/2008 7:21:39 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/17/2008 7:23:17 PM EST by Tim_the_enchanter]
All interesting replies and some of the same things that I have been kicking around. Obama's rob from the rich and give to the poor plan makes me hesitant to risk what I have. I'm far from rich but for those who refuse to work, I look like Bill Gates.

I see day to day gains and loses. I'll revisit the plan in a few months unless something miraculous happens sooner.
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