I don't normally worry about crap like this; figure it is just part of life. Thousands worldwide die each year from the flu. I just consider this part of the natural 'thinning of the heard'; part of weeding out the sick, weak, and inferior.

However, a recent discussion with a former SF friend got me thinking about it, and not in a good way. Seems like some of the guys on the inside have some information that indicates things could get exponentially worse this year.

Two words (for lack of a better term):

1) H5N1

and

2) pandemic

I'm hoping my tin foil is just on a little too tight today.

Thoughts?

in this case does "SF" mean special forces or survival forum? either way, the flu situation is something i'm watching closely.  its the most obvious threat, however unlikely, for the coming months.

Quoted: in this case does "SF" mean special forces or survival forum?

Former Green Beret.

No

 There is always the potential for another 1916 pandemic.  About six years ago there was a nasty version of the flu running around that was symptomatically comparable to the 1916 flu though not as ferocious.  I caught it.  I really thought I was gonna die in my bedroom I was so weak from it.  It took my almost a half of an hour to get from my bedroom to my bathroom so I could take a hot bath and my bathroom was just across the hallway from  my bedroom.  Not even 12 feet from the end of my bed.  It was nasty as hell.

 That being said..will we see such a flu season this year???  I doubt it...stuff like the 1916 flu, or big earthquakes or Super Hurricanes like Katrina hit when we are least prepared for it.....once we drop our guard, that's when it will hit.

Quoted: No

I REALLY hope you are right. I have enough crap to worry with as it is.

IF the bird flu in Indonesia mutates, then it could indeed be on.  Right now, it's confined to folks who live with and routinely touch their birds ()...it's not a human to human airborne virus...yet.  

In places like Vietnam and Thailand, people live in very close proximity to their chickens...whether they raise them for food, or for sport such as cock-fighting.  Whatever the reason, it's this very close contact now that is causing the cases to occur...IIRC, they just had their 6th death yesterday in Indonesia.  

The key is, if an actual "outbreak" occurs, how aggresively the governments in the respective countries will act to start killing chickens by the millions.  

If the virus mutates, though, we're fooked, basically.  The mortality rate in the 3rd world countries is around 50%....we might be able to get it down to 30% here, but a pandemic will stretch our medical resources to the limit.  

Rest assured, though, that there will be enough vaccine to innoculate the .gov folks, and the Congress, so we'll all be in good hands.  

From the CDC:

What is the H5N1 bird flu that has recently been reported in Asia? Updated May 09

Outbreaks of influenza H5N1 occurred among poultry in eight countries in Asia (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) during late 2003 and early 2004. At that time, more than 100 million birds in the affected countries either died from the disease or were killed in order to try to control the outbreak. By March 2004, the outbreak was reported to be under control. Beginning in late June 2004, however, new deadly outbreaks of influenza H5N1 among poultry were reported by several countries in Asia (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia [first-time reports], Thailand, and Vietnam). It is believed that these outbreaks are ongoing. Human infections of influenza A (H5N1) have been reported in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.
What is the risk to humans from the H5N1 virus in Asia? Updated May 24

The H5N1 virus does not usually infect humans. In 1997, however, the first case of spread from a bird to a human was seen during an outbreak of bird flu in poultry in Hong Kong. The virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, 6 of whom died. Since that time, there have been other cases of H5N1 infection among humans. Most recently, human cases of H5N1 infection have occurred in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia during large H5N1 outbreaks in poultry. The death rate for these reported cases has been about 50 percent. Most of these cases occurred from contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces; however, it is thought that a few cases of human-to-human spread of H5N1 have occurred.

So far, spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare and spread has not continued beyond one person. However, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the H5N1 virus could one day be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population. If the H5N1 virus were able to infect people and spread easily from person to person, an “influenza pandemic” (worldwide outbreak of disease) could begin. No one can predict when a pandemic might occur. However, experts from around the world are watching the H5N1 situation in Asia very closely and are preparing for the possibility that the virus may begin to spread more easily and widely from person to person.

Ya bird flu worries me but other flus are for pussies

Nope, not really worried about it.  If it happens it happens and soiling my undies right now will not do any good.  H5N1 makes it to pandemic then times will be real bad for quite some time.  Be prepaired for anything, and move on with your life.  I think the media has a lot of stake in H5N1 because the best thing for them is for a major pandemic to hit so that they can show stacks of dead bodies and scare those that are not sick into watching 24/7 coverage.

I will say that if it hits and is as bad as was predicted; you would loose all civil and utility services as well as interstate shipping of goods.  

Nope, my immune system is tough as nails. I haven't had the flu shot in my entire life, and I won't buy into that hype. I look at it like "Top off your gas tanks before gas prices spike!". It's gonna happen, and nothing you can do to help or prevent it.

ABC Morning show: THE DEADLIEST EVER!!!

Wasn't there similar cries about a different strain last year?  Didn't Tommy Thompson quit over criticism over how umprepared the fed was?

And look what happened.

It's so hard to tell when these assholes are cryiong wolf or not because the real affliction here is their addicition to advertising profits resulting from shock "journalism".

(hope I'm right tho)

Once this year's flu vaccine is distributed and adminstered, then we will have the flu to worry about.

Yeah, I got my tin foil hat on.

I'm not sure 1916 was influenza.

I'm not worried about the flu this year, either.

Jim

the "regular" flu vaccine (which should start showing up in October) is completely unrelated to H5N1, which is quietly spreading throughout Asia (map)

The latest outbreaks in Indonesia are furthering concern, as many of the recent victims are zoo visitors, not those who live with critters (as earlier victims in China & Vietnam did). As stated above, the sustained human-human transmission is the key to whether H5N1 becomes a pandemic or just another viral curiosity... and treatment is different than the regular flu.

I remember back in the late 70's when everyone panicked over the swine flu.

the last time i got the flu I almost died.  So im not really looking forward to it

We have been tracking this for many months now. Start at the heart of things at Recombinomics then do a google search, then better yet, check all the blogs.

This is your basic Mother Nature saying she is still boss. If it decides to jump human to human, it can be on this continent in days via any international flight. The governments in affected countries so far are split between total denial (to not affect tourism and other financial considerations) and total panic (doctors who know there is not a solution, and if one is made, there is not time to produce and administer it).

The virus could simply die out naturally, or evolve into a pandemic. If the pandemic goes, we believe it will be pretty severe. This is a case where the best defense is to plan all your normal SHTF preparations, but also get in good physical condition and keep your immune system as strong as possible.

Oh yeah, flu shots are bogus anyway... yet another case to not rely on the gove.

I work with several guys who are currently on a Far East 'tour' - Tokyo, Hong King, Shanghai, Beijing, and Syndey, not in that order.

They will be back here at the end of October.

I just hope they don't bring home any chickens as soveinirs.

Mmmmm..... no. Nope. Was supposed to be bad last year too, IIRC. In Illinois, the gubbamint bought up a bunch of vaccine, and when the had a bunch left over, they didn't want to pay for it, as I recall.

Quoted: I'm not sure 1916 was influenza. I'm not worried about the flu this year, either. Jim

What?

Are you saying the Great Spanish Influenza might have been something else or you don't know about it?

I guess the point of this matter is that if H5N1 ever crosses over from bird to bird and into bird to human , we may see something that we have only read with horror about in history books.

Just for the record, H5N1 is NOT the same flu as last year. As far as I am aware, there is NO vaccine for it to protect humans.

Just being paranoid I guess. I'll go loosen my tin foil now.

Quoted: I guess the point of this matter is that if H5N1 ever crosses over from bird to bird and into bird to human , we may see something that we have only read with horror about in history books. Just for the record, H5N1 is NOT the same flu as last year. As far as I am aware, there is NO vaccine for it to protect humans. Just being paranoid I guess. I'll go loosen my tin foil now.

Doesn't sound like tinfoil to me.  We seem to be teetering on the brink of an international health calamity.  Hopefully they stay on top of it.

What's new, H5N1?

I'm worried that they will use our tax money to save worthless anti-American scuzzbags with another aid package.

Quoted: I guess the point of this matter is that if H5N1 ever crosses over from bird to bird and into bird to human , we may see something that we have only read with horror about in history books. Just for the record, H5N1 is NOT the same flu as last year. As far as I am aware, there is NO vaccine for it to protect humans. Just being paranoid I guess. I'll go loosen my tin foil now.

paranioid or not, h5n1 is not the same flu as last year or any year for that matter. and although there technically is a vaccine for it, it is experimental and only available in such limitied quantites as to be insignificant.

simply, IF a pandemic were to emerge this year. there is not and will not be enough vaccine production in the world to deal with it. the true unknow is how deadly the new flu would actually be.

Do you keep a herd of chickens in your livingroom?

If not, I wouldn't worry too too much about it just yet.    

Quoted: Quoted: I guess the point of this matter is that if H5N1 ever crosses over from bird to bird and into bird to human , we may see something that we have only read with horror about in history books. Just for the record, H5N1 is NOT the same flu as last year. As far as I am aware, there is NO vaccine for it to protect humans. Just being paranoid I guess. I'll go loosen my tin foil now. paranioid or not, h5n1 is not the same flu as last year or any year for that matter. and although there technically is a vaccine for it, it is experimental and only available in such limitied quantites as to be insignificant. simply, IF a pandemic were to emerge this year. there is not and will not be enough vaccine production in the world to deal with it. the true unknow is how deadly the new flu would actually be.

insiders tell me the number of vaccines currently available in the US is only around 30K. I am not sure how credible that number is, but I know there isn't much.

everyone else is own their own to see which is stronger: them or h5n1

given the huge increase in world population since the early 1900's, my bet is h5n1 will win in several hundred thousand cases worldwide.

Quoted: Do you keep a herd of chickens in your livingroom? If not, I wouldn't worry too too much about it just yet.

No, they are in the front yard running around the upside down Trans Camaro.

There is a bit of uncertainty regarding incubation period (exposure to onset of symptoms), literature I have found ranges anywhere from 1-4 days on the low end to 7-15 days on the high side (with one affecting poultry as high as 60 days). Additionally, there are sub-variants that have differing morbidity and mortality. The strains mutate and recombine, and will continue to do so, finding more efficient means of propogation. It's the constant dance between infector and infected, natural selection will favor the strains that replicate most readily, depending on the incubation period of the strain that hits the transmission jackpot will determine the rate of spread (and advance warning, if any) of a stage 6 pandemic.

Quoted: Do you keep a herd of chickens in your livingroom? If not, I wouldn't worry too too much about it just yet.

Once it kicks in with sustained human-to-human transmission that doesn't matter.

"The death of five year old, Riska Ardian, is the 6th reported fatality with bird flu symptoms.  Thus far there have been no discharges, so the case fatality rate remains at 100%. "

link


Also:

Increasing Human to Human Transmision of H5N1 in Jakarta

Quoted: .........so the case fatality rate remains at 100%. "

That is EXACTLY what we talked about that had me tripping a little.  

Interesting article


...
Nobody’s even guessing how long it would take to get enough vaccine to go into everyone’s arms — it’s never been done before, and today’s manufacturing capacity simply isn’t up to it. If the total current flu vaccine capacity were focused on H5N1 alone, as opposed to three different strains like the annual flu vaccine, we might — in a very best case scenario — be able to come up with about 900 million doses a year worldwide. Most experts think it will take two doses to work against a new strain like H5N1, so maybe we’re ready to protect 450 million people a year. The current world population is 6.4 billion, requiring 14 years’ worth of vaccine at current production levels. And once the vaccine is manufactured, it also needs to be distributed and administered, a far-from-trivial problem in countries with uncertain refrigeration, poor roads, and few medical practitioners. Of course that might not be a problem if the countries with flu vaccine plants decide to meet domestic needs first and forbid export to other countries. At present, there are plants in only about nine countries. The U.S. has one domestic source of flu vaccine. So far only Canada is building up domestic vaccine production as part of its pandemic influenza plan.

In the meantime, for a year or two probably, waves of pandemic flu would roll around the planet, and life would change. Travel would be curtailed. Schools would close, off and on, and most public gatherings would be banned or strongly discouraged. Many economies would be devastated. With some people too sick to work and others staying home to avoid infection, maintaining essential services like police and water treatment would be difficult. That’s in the U.S. and other western countries. Try imagining what it would be like in poorer countries.

Reality check time: Nobody — nobody — is sure this will happen. Well, the experts are sure some flu strain will produce a pandemic eventually, but they don’t know which and they don’t know when and they don’t know how bad it will be. There have been flu pandemics before. The granddaddy of modern times was in 1918-19, when somewhere between 20 million and 100 million died of the so-called “Spanish Flu,” an H1N1 strain. We had less devastating though still serious pandemics in 1957 and 1968. Knowing a flu pandemic will happen eventually doesn’t tell us that a bad one will happen soon, or that it will be H5N1 when it happens.

...

I've gotten something twice this fall so far.  Different simptoms both times.  First was a two day stint sitting (shitting) on the pot a few weeks ago.  This week I've had the cold/flu in the head and lungs from hell....  Hopefully this will be it for me this year, but I usually catch everything even with a flu shot.

How do you get the flu in ND???

Who else is up there to catch it from?

Quoted: Quoted: Do you keep a herd of chickens in your livingroom? If not, I wouldn't worry too too much about it just yet.     Once it kicks in with sustained human-to-human transmission that doesn't matter.

Purely genetics and random luck at that point.

Quoted: How do you get the flu in ND??? Who else is up there to catch it from?

Hot scandinavian chicks!!!

I'm 26 and haven't had the flu since before 7th or 8th grade and can't remember ever having a flu shot, so I'm not terribly worried.  I probably should drink more OJ though.

Quoted: I'm 26 and haven't had the flu since before 7th or 8th grade and can't remember ever having a flu shot, so I'm not terribly worried.  I probably should drink more OJ though.

No one has immunity to H5N1, that's part of why it's considered a problem.  So far it has an estimated mortality rate of up to 70% but practically it has had 100% so far in the few actual cases in Asia.  We are in the critical stages where it will be contained or blow open and spread throughout the world.

Quoted: Quoted: How do you get the flu in ND??? Who else is up there to catch it from? Hot scandinavian chicks!!!

* ears perking up *

Really?


~ adding North Dakoter to vacation list ~

Quoted: Quoted: in this case does "SF" mean special forces or survival forum? Former Green Beret.

He used to be a hat?

Seriously though, I wouldn't say I "worry" so much as it is on my radar screen.
Not a defenite sure-fire threat, but I know that there is always the possiblity for an epidemic.
Keep it on your threat board - you're doing the right thing.