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9/22/2017 12:11:25 AM
Posted: 2/15/2006 7:08:35 AM EDT
I understand that the Europeans are running and screaming in the streets, "Bird Flu !!!! Bird Flu !!!!" and that the end of the world as we know it is near.

Should I be terrified and go screaming in the street, too? Should I stock up on paint masks to protect me from dirty birds? What are you doing to protect yourself and loved ones from birds??

Lawdog
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:17:01 AM EDT
Bird Flu = Media Hype
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:18:15 AM EDT

Originally Posted By xinflt:
Bird Flu = Media Hype



yep
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:20:39 AM EDT
(yawn)
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:21:51 AM EDT
Docs seem to be petrified of it. That should tell you something.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:22:36 AM EDT
91 people world wide so far have died from the bird flu.



in other news, 314 people have died from other strains of the flu and pnumonia related to the flu, world widemostly the very young and old.

you do the math
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:23:36 AM EDT

Originally Posted By lawdog:
I understand that the Europeans are running and screaming in the streets, "Bird Flu !!!! Bird Flu !!!!" and that the end of the world as we know it is ne



WTF?
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:25:10 AM EDT
im still waiting to die from sars...
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:28:03 AM EDT

Originally Posted By stormwalker:
91 people world wide so far have died from the bird flu.



in other news, 314 people have died from other strains of the flu and pnumonia related to the flu, world widemostly the very young and old.

you do the math


Also for people whose immune system has been compromised.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:33:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By stormwalker:
91 people world wide so far have died from the bird flu.



in other news, 314 people have died from other strains of the flu and pnumonia related to the flu, world widemostly the very young and old.

you do the math



Survival rate is something like 25-50%.

The only reason so few people have died is because you can so far only get it from handling a sick bird, and there's very few areas where people are handling live poultry.

If/when the bug manages to transfer human to human like influenza, we're fucked.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:40:58 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mmx1:

Originally Posted By stormwalker:
91 people world wide so far have died from the bird flu.



in other news, 314 people have died from other strains of the flu and pnumonia related to the flu, world widemostly the very young and old.

you do the math



Survival rate is something like 25-50%.

The only reason so few people have died is because you can so far only get it from handling a sick bird, and there's very few areas where people are handling live poultry.

If/when the bug manages to transfer human to human like influenza, we're fucked.



Thats what my aunt says also.She is a Dr. and travels the world,she is in Haiti at the moment.She says it is a real concern and will happen eventually.

My .2
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 7:45:49 AM EDT
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:24:27 AM EDT
With respect, I don't think the Europeans are running around like headless chickens.

They have pre-identified a threat which does not currently exist, but it might.

In the 5% (or whatever low number) chance that Bird Flu, or some other ailment which Bird Flu research could help, starts decimating the world's population, I think people would be changing their tune if the Europeans happened to have cures and the US didn't.

They are honouring the threat, nothing more. I think it's rather sensible, myself.

NTM
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:27:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/15/2006 9:27:36 AM EDT by DK-Prof]

Originally Posted By julenissen:

Originally Posted By lawdog:
I understand that the Europeans are running and screaming in the streets, "Bird Flu !!!! Bird Flu !!!!" and that the end of the world as we know it is ne



WTF?



+1

WTF?


Did your friend in South Florida tell you that one too?



The people that seem really freaked out over it seem to be mostly talking heads on 24-hour news channels, who need "news" to fill their schedule and get stories that can generate ratings.

I read Danish news and BBC news every day, and the bird flu rarely makes the news. I saw a brief story about it the other day, because Denmark expects that the bird flu will soon record cases in Denmark (because there have been cases in Norther Germany recently, apparently).
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:28:47 AM EDT
Did ya hear that from South Florida?
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:31:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Ring:
im still waiting to die from sars...



same here...
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:33:02 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/15/2006 9:36:51 AM EDT by Da_Bunny]
It'll not likely that we will have flocks of infected migratory birds infesting our forests any time soon, while they very well could.

Our exposure would have to come through a far more lengthy route, probably via africa and south america.

like killer bees, it's taking a long time, but they are working their way north.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:37:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/15/2006 9:38:19 AM EDT by DukeSnookems]
I love ARFCOM. Prepare for TEOTWAWKI under every conceivable irrational scenario but a virus capable of being a pandemic with a 45% mortality rate is to be dismissed. Anything to spite those pesky Euros and the UN

True the media tends to hype just about everything but read up on the Spanish Flu of 1918. Came out of Kansas and killed 20-100 Million people worldwide. The bird flu has the potential to be worse if it mutates.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:40:19 AM EDT

The only reason so few people have died is because you can so far only get it from handling a sick bird, and there's very few areas where people are handling live poultry.

If/when the bug manages to transfer human to human like influenza, we're fucked.



A big +1 here. Check it out on the map....World hotspots
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:42:16 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Ring:
im still waiting to die from sars...



Give it time. It's like Chuck Norris- if you can see him, he can see you. If you can't see him, you may be only seconds away from death.

When you least expect it- BAM.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:42:31 AM EDT

Originally Posted By thebeekeeper1:
The Europeans are afraid of everything.



Yep.

Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:43:27 AM EDT
Relating this to the Spanish flu is certainly something to think about, and not to be underestimated.

Honestly if there was an outbreak of 'anything' our country's medical limits would absolutely be stretched to the max.

Now, if you asked - What about Zombies with the bird flu? You'd probably have more responses of concern
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:44:05 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DukeSnookems:
I love ARFCOM. Prepare for TEOTWAWKI under every conceivable irrational scenario but a virus capable of being a pandemic with a 45% mortality rate is to be dismissed. Anything to spite those pesky Euros and the UN

True the media tends to hype just about everything but read up on the Spanish Flu of 1918. Came out of Kansas and killed 20-100 Million people worldwide. The bird flu has the potential to be worse if it mutates.




True - but I had biologists tell me in the early 1980s to be really worried about AIDS, because it was going to mutate to an airborne form any day, and then we were all going to die unless we developed a vaccine very quickly.

Twenty years later, there is still no vaccine, yet we are all still alive.


That said, I completely agree that a killer flu pandemic is inevitable, and probably going to happen in our lifetimes.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:45:33 AM EDT
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:46:24 AM EDT
that's funny! i was watching al sumariyah tv (non govt tv station in iraq) last night and they were talking about the RUMOR of bird flu. chicken (what they call "white meat") sales have plummeted and red meat and fish sales have shot up practically over night. govt ministers and veterinarians are working overtime trying to dispell the rumors. good thing is chicken prices are at an all time low...
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:48:13 AM EDT
I think I have the bird flu right now.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:49:23 AM EDT
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:51:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By oubeta:
I think I have the bird flu right now.



dibs on his guns!
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:53:19 AM EDT
I'm more afraid of the european thought process than the bird flu.


never been there, I'm just going by the events on the news (riots in france, spain backing out of the war from a terrorist attack, The Dutch allowing attacks on their embassy without retalliation), if we end up like that, we're fucked too
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 9:55:00 AM EDT

Originally Posted By hardcorps1775:
that's funny! i was watching al sumariyah tv (non govt tv station in iraq) last night and they were talking about the RUMOR of bird flu. chicken (what they call "white meat") sales have plummeted and red meat and fish sales have shot up practically over night. govt ministers and veterinarians are working overtime trying to dispell the rumors. good thing is chicken prices are at an all time low...



You've already got 15 cases and a few deaths in Iraq in the past week.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 10:02:19 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 2/15/2006 10:11:47 AM EDT by 3rdpig]
Think about it for a few minutes. The world population is 6 billion and rising. The bird flu will hit under developed nations the hardest, and these nations usually have the worst population control problems. Let's take a liberal number and say 500 million could die. 6 billion - 500 million = 5.5 billion. Sure it will suck if you or your family is one of the affected. Sure it will interrupt international trade and even interstate trade here in the US. I expect the percentage that die in the US will be tiny compared to countries like India, Maylasia and China. Sure hospitals here will be overcrowded with people who even think they have the bird flu and almost any medical attention will be hard to get and may expose you to the flu. Sure, some people will use any excuse to loot, rape and pillage. But in the grand scheme of things it will be a pimple on the ass of history.

Should you prepare? Sure, but if you're already prepared for SHTF then there's probably not much more you need to do. Should you be worried? No, not really, all you can do is prepare, the rest is out of your control.

And the most important question? Should you buy more ammo? Damn straight!
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 10:19:12 AM EDT
There was a good article in one of the wife's mags [ Discover or Smithsonian ] about a Dr Weaver who is a specialist in these sorts of things and has been warning of such a possibility for years. Now it is hear. The only reason that it has NOT hit hard is people like Weaver and his collegues have the attention of the worlds' governments. When Weaver and co. say 'kill 1.5 million chickens' it gets done.

There are several ways the flu will get spread. Black market poultry smuggling and wild water fowl are the 2 most common. Ducks and other water fowl are especially dangerous because they carry and transmit the disease but do not die from it. It was swans that were implicated just recently in Italy.

Dr Weaver was also worried that hogs may be the link that permits the disease to jump to humans.

Bird flu is like the bullet with your name on it. You can't dodge it so why worry about it ?

Press on
rj
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 10:38:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By lawdog:
I understand that the Europeans are running and screaming in the streets, "Bird Flu !!!! Bird Flu !!!!" and that the end of the world as we know it is near.

Should I be terrified and go screaming in the street, too? Should I stock up on paint masks to protect me from dirty birds? What are you doing to protect yourself and loved ones from birds??

Lawdog



Maybe there is a reason to be terrified.

When I was a kid my grandfather told me about the 1918 flu, which he lived through.

About dead bodies being stacked up like cord wood during the winter because it was too cold to dig graves, watching family members die and hoping you didn't get it, watching children die, being afraid, etc.

www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm

Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert

The bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form that can spread easily between people, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview published in Portugal.

"Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans," Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso.

"I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans," he said.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia.

The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly strain of the disease.

Experts have long warned that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by humans and spark a global pandemic potentially killing millions.

Dr Nabarro said he has told governments around the world to prepare for the arrival of a human-to-human strain of the virus "as if this will happen tomorrow."

In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in birds killed more than 40 million people around the world.

Subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused widespread disruption.

Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:30:39 AM EDT
I'd imagine a good person-to-person transmittable H5N1 variant could be far worse than the 1918 flu. Fast jet travel would spread the disease in days instead of months. You could be infected in Asia and be in the US before the symptoms showed. Increased population density throughout the world also can't help.

One should consider that the 1918 flu killed a higher percentage of those infected than H5N1, but I'd attribute that to the higher standard of care available now. Given the proper resources, hospitals have kept full blown rabies cases alive until the virus could run it's course. They're good at that. In a pandemic situation though, there won't be enough ventillators, antivirals, or medical professionals to go around.

So.. Why all the worry? Hell, I don't know. I can't really imagine we're going to get anything done ahead of time that will make any impact on the spread of that kind of disease, so I don't see any real reason to freak out about it. If we're all gonna die, might as well go with a smile.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:33:15 AM EDT

Originally Posted By lawdog:
I understand that the Europeans are running and screaming in the streets, "Bird Flu !!!! Bird Flu !!!!" and that the end of the world as we know it is near.

Should I be terrified and go screaming in the street, too? Should I stock up on paint masks to protect me from dirty birds? What are you doing to protect yourself and loved ones from birds??

Lawdog



I went outside waving my arms and yelled BIRD FLU, BIRD FLU!!!!! But no one listened....I went back inside.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:40:59 AM EDT
Europeans are scared because they have socialized medicine where it takes 6 weeks to get a doctor appointment.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:44:46 AM EDT
I completely agree that a killer flu pandemic is inevitable, and probably going to happen in our lifetimes.

Why do you say that professor??
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:45:59 AM EDT

Originally Posted By mmx1:

Originally Posted By hardcorps1775:
that's funny! i was watching al sumariyah tv (non govt tv station in iraq) last night and they were talking about the RUMOR of bird flu. chicken (what they call "white meat") sales have plummeted and red meat and fish sales have shot up practically over night. govt ministers and veterinarians are working overtime trying to dispell the rumors. good thing is chicken prices are at an all time low...



You've already got 15 cases and a few deaths in Iraq in the past week.


holy shit, iraqi tv lied to me???
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 11:50:44 AM EDT

Originally Posted By hardcorps1775:

Originally Posted By mmx1:

Originally Posted By hardcorps1775:
that's funny! i was watching al sumariyah tv (non govt tv station in iraq) last night and they were talking about the RUMOR of bird flu. chicken (what they call "white meat") sales have plummeted and red meat and fish sales have shot up practically over night. govt ministers and veterinarians are working overtime trying to dispell the rumors. good thing is chicken prices are at an all time low...



You've already got 15 cases and a few deaths in Iraq in the past week.


holy shit, iraqi tv lied to me???



Actually read it here. Correction, 1 15-year old girl confirmed. there are several more with symptoms, they believe her uncle who died was also due to H5N1, and they have been testing both humans and birds. All in northern Iraq.
Link Posted: 2/15/2006 12:06:09 PM EDT
It's like all cases of new viruses, they are always of vastly overestimated danger in the early stages, as generally the only known cases are people who got really sick and/or died from it, and they ran tests to see what did it.

When they start testing for lesser cases the mortality rate drops like a stone.

Then there is adaption, humans develop immunity over time, and the bug adapts to not kill its host, because killing the host shuts off reproduction which is an undesireable evolutionary trait. Which is why all the really hot viruses die out before the pandemic stage, thank god.

Which is not to say that the avian flu won't be a problem and won't kill a lot of people, but no need to get all worried about it when you can't do anything about it. Let the healthcare professionals worry about it, it is their job.

My personal guess is that if the virus goes human to human, it will be a very strong historical flu strain, but it won't be the end of life as we know it or anything. It may get really really bad though.
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