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Posted: 8/27/2004 7:17:23 AM EST
What parts of the world do you think will go on pretty much unharmed?

I was thinking about this last night and figure a handful of places could just keep operating near capacity for long time. A few islands in the south pacific come to mind. A village or 2 in the jungles of Africa or south America.

What about places like North Korea? They are pretty isolated from the rest of the world already.

What about the nomadic people in different countries like Asia, and Africa that live freely off the land and livestock? I know that at some point others would influence these people, but up to that point would the fall of the dollar really be a large life changing event for them?

Thinking outloud more then anything here and thought I would pick the collective mind of the ARFCOM hive.

CH
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:24:50 AM EST
I don't know about the pacific islands, but Africa and North Korea both suffer from some very serious problems already, especially starvation in the general population. North Korea only continues to function from month to month because the rest of the world (including the USA) ships them food to feed their population. Without foreign aid, North Korea would collapse within a matter of a few months. Africa is similar, only their problem is compounded by a general collapse of civilization and massive disease issues.

So, basicly, in economic meltdown, North Korea and Africa would suffer a complete collapse in a matter of a few months. It's possible a few isolated tribes might survive, but they'd be the ones that are still living in the stone ages. I wouldn't want to be in any of those places.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:27:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:27:57 AM EST
North Korea and unharmed shouldn't be on the same page. Really, does anyone expect the whole world to go to hell economically ever?
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:28:14 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 7:28:55 AM EST by DOW]
Any economy based on agriculture rather than technology comes to mind. Rural Ireland, New Zealand, etc. They would absolutely be inconvenienced, but would continue to function much more smoothly than an economy such as that of the USA, for example.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:28:48 AM EST
doublefeed has it right
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:29:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By peekay:
North Korea and unharmed shouldn't be on the same page. Really, does anyone expect the whole world to go to hell economically ever?



The great depression come to mind.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:32:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By DoubleFeed:
Economic? That's it?
Outside of, but close (within an hours drive, maybe 2) to, a city. If you don't have to worry about nukes,, dirty bombs, zombies, locusts, floods, earthquakes and that not-so-fresh feeling, go where the most resources are, while maintaining a safe enough distance where you can avoid most of the problems that come with a panic inducing and casualty producing event in a populated area.
Stay where the land is suitable for growing food crops.



That's the only reason I didn't mind getting stationed in Kansas in light of the world situation.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:33:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By peekay:
Really, does anyone expect the whole world to go to hell economically ever?



I'm doing some research right now on the national debt, federal obligations not accounted for in the published debt figures, and who holds that debt. I've heard that it's China. If so, then I'd say that a meltdown, intentionally caused by China, is a real possibility.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 7:35:49 AM EST

Originally Posted By Shane333:
I don't know about the pacific islands, but Africa and North Korea both suffer from some very serious problems already, especially starvation in the general population. North Korea only continues to function from month to month because the rest of the world (including the USA) ships them food to feed their population. Without foreign aid, North Korea would collapse within a matter of a few months. Africa is similar, only their problem is compounded by a general collapse of civilization and massive disease issues.

So, basicly, in economic meltdown, North Korea and Africa would suffer a complete collapse in a matter of a few months. It's possible a few isolated tribes might survive, but they'd be the ones that are still living in the stone ages. I wouldn't want to be in any of those places.



Right now maybe. What about when you are out of food, supplies and such and they are still living the same way as they have since before any collapse? They would not seem so primitive at that point me thinks.
CH

Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:01:24 AM EST

Originally Posted By DoubleFeed:
Economic? That's it?
Outside of, but close (within an hours drive, maybe 2) to, a city. If you don't have to worry about nukes,, dirty bombs, zombies, locusts, floods, earthquakes and that not-so-fresh feeling, go where the most resources are, while maintaining a safe enough distance where you can avoid most of the problems that come with a panic inducing and casualty producing event in a populated area.
Stay where the land is suitable for growing food crops.




Did you read "patriots", the SHTF book about economic meltdown?

Seems pretty plausable that the problems will come to you when things get nasty in the cities.

Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:11:57 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 8:12:08 AM EST by ar50troll]
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:34:46 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 8:36:09 AM EST by Shane333]

Originally Posted By Cape_hunter:

Originally Posted By Shane333:
I don't know about the pacific islands, but Africa and North Korea both suffer from some very serious problems already, especially starvation in the general population. North Korea only continues to function from month to month because the rest of the world (including the USA) ships them food to feed their population. Without foreign aid, North Korea would collapse within a matter of a few months. Africa is similar, only their problem is compounded by a general collapse of civilization and massive disease issues.

So, basicly, in economic meltdown, North Korea and Africa would suffer a complete collapse in a matter of a few months. It's possible a few isolated tribes might survive, but they'd be the ones that are still living in the stone ages. I wouldn't want to be in any of those places.



Right now maybe. What about when you are out of food, supplies and such and they are still living the same way as they have since before any collapse? They would not seem so primitive at that point me thinks.
CH




After such a collapse, North Korea is going to starve. Worse, the government will only tighten its grip on any resourses to keep itself going. The rest of the population will simply die if they aren't military. Even then, I can see a lot of soldiers "left out" to die if things get tight (which they will). So I still say North Korea is hosed and not the place to be.

As for Africa, how are you going to get to these little tribal havens? Move there now? Why would they accept your presence? In economic meltdown most of Africa is going to be an anarchist sh--hole with every man for himself. In some parts it's already that way. You try flying in there to travel to some haven (during economic catastrophy), and you'll be lucky to make it out of the airport alive. You try flying a private jet into Africa and you stand a good chance of being shot down by some rogue (or panicky) government. Or some warlard could see you land and come after you.

I still say neither of those choices look good. In fact, they easily look worse than staying in the USA.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:36:38 AM EST
If it really goes to shit, I doubt yur gonna be able to get out of your hemisphere.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:45:10 AM EST
Its simply impossible to assume any region could "caryy on as usual" to any degree. Every country and every people, barring the most primitave and isolated peoples rely on SOMETHING which is not made locally. Lets take an American city. It gets power from plants that run off imported fuel, our homes are heated from imported gas, our food is trucked/flown in from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our clothes and toys and electronics are made in China and shipped here.
In a true worldwide SHTF everyones lifestyle woudl dramatically change as people adjusted. Think for a minute what you personally would have to do if trade lanes broke down (Say, from an oil shortage) and you couldnt get anything that wasnt, say, 50 miles or closer to where you are right now. Imagine this concept for a minute. Now, extend this isolation for say..... a month. If your in a populated area, theres not enough food to sustain the people for a month. Thus, you end up with war over food, with the losers being killed or starving to death. But the winners just delay the inevitable, as once the food is eaten then what? It takes on average a month and a half for grown food to mature, so even that leaves a 2 week deficit.

Areas that must have imported goods to maintain life are at an even worse disadvantage. Think of an populated island. If theres not enough land to grow enough food to sustain everyone on there.......
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:47:13 AM EST

Originally Posted By ar50troll:
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.



Sweet !
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:50:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.



Sweet !



It's cheap too. When I get time to go down I take tools and small gas generators. As long s it's under $10,000 worth of goods, customs is cool. Tools and power generation equip are better than gold. I had my huts (They don'y qualify as homes for sure. Wish they did!) built by locals for tradt for tools and gennies. I got friends who surf. They spend more time there, way more than I do. And they can keep an eye on everything.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:50:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.



Sweet !



If you run into a hot chic named Gabby, tell her I said hi and she needs to come back.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:51:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 8:51:20 AM EST by ar50troll]

Originally Posted By Specop_007:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.



Sweet !



If you run into a hot chic named Gabby, tell her I said hi and she needs to come back.



If she surfs with some granolas named Kelly and Dawn, I probably do know her.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:53:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By ar50troll:

Originally Posted By Specop_007:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:
I have a 125 arcres in Costa Rica. It's still pretty damn cheap land today. Good nat resources. Politically and technically isolated. Close enough I can fly my Piper. That's assuming there is no EMP going around at the time.



Sweet !



If you run into a hot chic named Gabby, tell her I said hi and she needs to come back.



If she surfs with some granolas named Kelly and Dawn, I probably do know her.



I wouldnt know anymore. Havent seen her in years and years (like, 10!) She does has a sister I know that much. She came up to America as a foriegn exchange student.
Lets assume their not one and the same because A) The chances are slim and B) That'd be too damned wierd
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:57:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By Specop_007:
Its simply impossible to assume any region could "caryy on as usual" to any degree. Every country and every people, barring the most primitave and isolated peoples rely on SOMETHING which is not made locally. Lets take an American city. It gets power from plants that run off imported fuel, our homes are heated from imported gas, our food is trucked/flown in from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our clothes and toys and electronics are made in China and shipped here.
In a true worldwide SHTF everyones lifestyle woudl dramatically change as people adjusted. Think for a minute what you personally would have to do if trade lanes broke down (Say, from an oil shortage) and you couldnt get anything that wasnt, say, 50 miles or closer to where you are right now. Imagine this concept for a minute. Now, extend this isolation for say..... a month. If your in a populated area, theres not enough food to sustain the people for a month. Thus, you end up with war over food, with the losers being killed or starving to death. But the winners just delay the inevitable, as once the food is eaten then what? It takes on average a month and a half for grown food to mature, so even that leaves a 2 week deficit.

Areas that must have imported goods to maintain life are at an even worse disadvantage. Think of an populated island. If theres not enough land to grow enough food to sustain everyone on there.......



Good point. That's why my family practices food storage. We're working towards a year's supply, but have a few months worth right now.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 8:58:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Good point. That's why my family practices food storage. We're working towards a year's supply, but have a few months worth right now.



Just don't tell anyone. Your "friends" will be breaking your door down if TSHTF and they know you have surplus.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:00:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By ar50troll:

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Good point. That's why my family practices food storage. We're working towards a year's supply, but have a few months worth right now.



Just don't tell anyone. Your "friends" will be breaking your door down if TSHTF and they know you have surplus.



Not too worried. I live in a neighborhood where over half my neighbors do the same thing.

If I ever move, it will certainly become a bigger issue.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:01:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Not too worried. I live in a neighborhood where over half my neighbors do the same thing.

If I ever move, it will certainly become a bigger issue.



Cool. Most of my neighbors are the peering through the blinds type when I am moving ammo cans and long blaack cases to and from.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:06:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Originally Posted By Cape_hunter:

Originally Posted By Shane333:
I don't know about the pacific islands, but Africa and North Korea both suffer from some very serious problems already, especially starvation in the general population. North Korea only continues to function from month to month because the rest of the world (including the USA) ships them food to feed their population. Without foreign aid, North Korea would collapse within a matter of a few months. Africa is similar, only their problem is compounded by a general collapse of civilization and massive disease issues.

So, basicly, in economic meltdown, North Korea and Africa would suffer a complete collapse in a matter of a few months. It's possible a few isolated tribes might survive, but they'd be the ones that are still living in the stone ages. I wouldn't want to be in any of those places.



Right now maybe. What about when you are out of food, supplies and such and they are still living the same way as they have since before any collapse? They would not seem so primitive at that point me thinks.
CH




After such a collapse, North Korea is going to starve. Worse, the government will only tighten its grip on any resourses to keep itself going. The rest of the population will simply die if they aren't military. Even then, I can see a lot of soldiers "left out" to die if things get tight (which they will). So I still say North Korea is hosed and not the place to be.

As for Africa, how are you going to get to these little tribal havens? Move there now? Why would they accept your presence? In economic meltdown most of Africa is going to be an anarchist sh--hole with every man for himself. In some parts it's already that way. You try flying in there to travel to some haven (during economic catastrophy), and you'll be lucky to make it out of the airport alive. You try flying a private jet into Africa and you stand a good chance of being shot down by some rogue (or panicky) government. Or some warlard could see you land and come after you.

I still say neither of those choices look good. In fact, they easily look worse than staying in the USA.



Understand however I was not referring to NK or Africa in my last reply. I was referrig to the places like remote islands, back mountians of AK etc.

Sure most places in the world have some outside need, but not all. That is the whole point of my thinking on this thread. I bet there are at least a handful of places that would not really care one way or the other.


Red_beard, I have and that book was gripping. Couldnt put it down. Some of hte things that are listed in that book I think are ot only plausable, but but likely in the event of a economic breakdown.


Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:06:32 AM EST
Least affected by SHTF? Afghanistan.

There are parts of that country that have actually been bombed forward from the stone age. Others? Sure, the ones that are cut off, the most rural spots, e.g. parts of South America, Africa, China, etc.

Of course, should such a worldwide event occur, "rural" would lose its meaning as refugees disperse.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:09:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Good point. That's why my family practices food storage. We're working towards a year's supply, but have a few months worth right now.



Just don't tell anyone. Your "friends" will be breaking your door down if TSHTF and they know you have surplus.



Not too worried. I live in a neighborhood where over half my neighbors do the same thing.

If I ever move, it will certainly become a bigger issue.



Do you store food based on your religion?
CH
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:35:02 AM EST

What parts of the world do you think will go on pretty much unharmed?


Any Third World shithole. They will be coming to the developed countries, a la the Mexicans to the US, to steal what we have. Likewise, they will have a short trip back to the Stone Age, because they have evolved so little.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:44:40 AM EST

Originally Posted By hardcase:
Any Third World shithole. They will be coming to the developed countries, a la the Mexicans to the US, to steal what we have. Likewise, they will have a short trip back to the Stone Age, because they have evolved so little.



You've never humped a spanish chick,huh?
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 9:59:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By hardcase:

What parts of the world do you think will go on pretty much unharmed?


Any Third World shithole. They will be coming to the developed countries, a la the Mexicans to the US, to steal what we have. Likewise, they will have a short trip back to the Stone Age, because they have evolved so little.



Maybe true but hen it comes down to surviving with next to nothing, they will have most of us beat hands down.

CH
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 10:29:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By Cape_hunter:

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Originally Posted By ar50troll:

Originally Posted By Shane333:

Good point. That's why my family practices food storage. We're working towards a year's supply, but have a few months worth right now.



Just don't tell anyone. Your "friends" will be breaking your door down if TSHTF and they know you have surplus.



Not too worried. I live in a neighborhood where over half my neighbors do the same thing.

If I ever move, it will certainly become a bigger issue.



Do you store food based on your religion?
CH



Short answer: Yes. The Church teaches self reliance and emergency preparedness. As far as firearms-related things are concerned, they leave it up to the individual.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 10:57:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By peekay:
North Korea and unharmed shouldn't be on the same page. Really, does anyone expect the whole world to go to hell economically ever?



You probably don't remember it but maybe you've read something about the Great Depression??

Round 2 in 15-20 years.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 11:16:50 AM EST


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted By hardcase:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What parts of the world do you think will go on pretty much unharmed?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Any Third World shithole. They will be coming to the developed countries, a la the Mexicans to the US, to steal what we have. Likewise, they will have a short trip back to the Stone Age, because they have evolved so little.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Maybe true but hen it comes down to surviving with next to nothing, they will have most of us beat hands down.



Possibly, but that is pure speculation. Likewise, it doesn't answer the original question.

Just for the sake of follow-on discussion, I would support your view for several reasons:

* Their base instincts, or street skills, if you prefer.
* Their very low expectations.

Offsetting that however, are:

* Lack of education.
* Lack of ability, or desire, to participate in an organized society.

I'm sure there are many more reasons on both sides of the argument, but I don't want to hijack the thread any more than it has been.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 11:18:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By drjarhead:

Originally Posted By peekay:
North Korea and unharmed shouldn't be on the same page. Really, does anyone expect the whole world to go to hell economically ever?



You probably don't remember it but maybe you've read something about the Great Depression??

Round 2 in 15-20 years.



+1
I think that it is very possible if not unavoidable. We have bred into out children and their children a dependence on technology the god almighty dollar. It is somthing that is very distribing. Turn off the power in the US for 5 days and freeze all electronic money transfers and see what happens. Think about it.

CH
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 11:36:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By hardcase:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted By hardcase:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What parts of the world do you think will go on pretty much unharmed?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Any Third World shithole. They will be coming to the developed countries, a la the Mexicans to the US, to steal what we have. Likewise, they will have a short trip back to the Stone Age, because they have evolved so little.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Maybe true but hen it comes down to surviving with next to nothing, they will have most of us beat hands down.



Possibly, but that is pure speculation. Likewise, it doesn't answer the original question.

Just for the sake of follow-on discussion, I would support your view for several reasons:

* Their base instincts, or street skills, if you prefer.
* Their very low expectations.

Offsetting that however, are:

* Lack of education.
* Lack of ability, or desire, to participate in an organized society.

I'm sure there are many more reasons on both sides of the argument, but I don't want to hijack the thread any more than it has been.



Good points. I think the offsetting things you list however would not make much difference. Education may not be a factor as they are in to live. not over achieve.
Same for the lake of ability, IMHO I dont think a desire to be "part of" anything. For them it would likely be just another day.
For most of us however, it would be a major event requiring complete changes in lifstyle. Changes that could be do or die. Thats the difference.

Back to the original ?, I think that places like, the easter islands, french polynesia, somoa, cook, tonga etc could sustain life. I think a few would likely go for weeks before they even knew anything was wrong.

You are right its just speculation and opinion, but thats why i brought it up, to pick everyones mind.
CH

Link Posted: 8/27/2004 11:47:24 AM EST
I believe he was asking what places would be uneffected, not where the best place to survive in "survival mode" would be.
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 11:52:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 8/27/2004 12:03:02 PM EST
[Last Edit: 8/27/2004 12:05:16 PM EST by Cape_hunter]

Originally Posted By DoubleFeed:

Originally Posted By SNorman:
I believe he was asking what places would be uneffected, not where the best place to survive in "survival mode" would be.

Bahhh! Reading Comprehension is overrated




Prolly, butt tahts oly if ya all cin raed! *haaaaawk....spit.......ding...slurp*
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