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Posted: 3/5/2001 7:11:45 PM EDT
I read many different scenarios here and elsewhere as to how and when we will experience a SHTF situation in this country and it's beginning to look like it will start with massive unemployment and Crowds rioting in the streets. But all of that will follow a Stock Market Crash so bad it will rock the Foundation the Republic is built on like nothing we've experienced before.

If you own Stocks unload them and stay out of the Stock Market. It's a Fool's game....You decide.


Monday,March 5,2001
New York Post

TRADERS may now want to dabble in the stock market. All others should stay away. Let's set the current investment scene before I get to why some people might want to start fooling again with stocks.
Corporate earnings are so bad that 370 companies already were compelled to warn Wall Street about first-quarter profits. That compares with just 54 earnings warnings issued at the same time last year.

The Nasdaq index is collapsing daily toward the 2,000 level, a mark that would have seemed preposterous just a few months ago. The Dow Jones industrials aren't doing quite as badly, but they can't seem to sustain a rally either.

On the bright side, the Fed seems willing to help. It cut interest rates twice already and hints it'll cut borrowing costs more if necessary.

Yet Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in his testimony Friday that inflation doesn't bother him much (even though two important gauges jumped sharply this month) and that the economy is showing some stability (even though most indicators are still declining).

Companies are laying off large numbers of workers daily. Naturally, consumer confidence is in a ditch.

If I were a Hollywood screenwriter I'd be putting the finishing touches on this horror story and it would include an ax to the head of investors.

Now for that little twist movie makers like to put into every story: Some of you might want to start selectively buying stocks. Selective - as in the stocks of companies with good, recession-proof businesses, which have been indiscriminately beaten up and have already confessed to everything that any company might have done wrong.

The early part of any month is usually benign, unless some news interferes. And March is one of those triple-witching months, when stock index options, index futures and regular stock options all expire. Stocks usually rally into these expirations, which occur on the third Friday of the month. But this time the third Friday happens to come early - March 16. So the next couple of weeks could have a better tone. And then there is the general mood of traders.

Stocks were destined to be pummeled last Friday. But somehow the mood was upbeat enough to get a rally going. And while the Dow did fall back to minimal gains by the end, averting a disaster did make people feel better.

The bottom line: If you have the nerve, you might be able to make a few profitable trades before the bad news starts coming back toward the end of March.

But this advice is only for daring people with money to lose. The rest of you should steer clear.
Link Posted: 3/5/2001 7:14:47 PM EDT
ok, i'm selling all the collapsable stocks and full length stocks i have.
the bushmasters and colts are going to go high.
all the aftermarket junk will go cheap.
and if you want your stock to be a color, god help you on the price.
just kidding!
Link Posted: 3/5/2001 7:23:07 PM EDT
WELL AWRIGHT! I just purchased 8000 shares of ACME TIN HAT CO. on Friday.  Sounds like I'm retiring early.

Honestly the only thing I expect to read, about mass numbers of people in the street, are articles about homeless folks that the media only draws attention to when a Republican is in office.  Same goes for the gloomy economy reports.
Link Posted: 3/5/2001 7:40:02 PM EDT
There is no Acme Tin Hat Company.  However, the Acme Company does have a Tin Hat division.

Link Posted: 3/5/2001 7:45:08 PM EDT
I thought the Acme company folded after Wile E. Coyote launched a successful class action lawsuit against them.
Link Posted: 3/5/2001 8:00:50 PM EDT
SELL!!! WTF for?!?! Selling for the weak at heart. There are put options to buy, selling short to be done, tax swaps to do. Why sell. Oh wait all ya'll bought into them dot com stuff huh? Guess what? gone are the days of buy high sell higher. Individuals actually has to do some extensive research now. Welcome to the big leagues folks. I have said this before: If you're not trading 1000shrs or more of any issue you best stick to the buy and hold strategy. The big boys have deeper pockets than you. Margin calls are now happening and banckruptcy just around the corner. Market turmoil....Nahhh....just getting rid of the wannabes in the market. This gloom and doom sayers have here before and they have always been wrong. Markets go up, markets go down. Does that can't hang say the market is falling. Yet after all the crashes and inflation and reccession fears, the market has managed to appreciate in the LONG RUN. Fast buck in the market can kill you. Remember folks risk vs reward.

My advise: If you are holding crappy hi PE dot comers sell em. If not keep Keep What you have. Buy some more to lower cost basis. Afterall how many here thinks the market will not recover in 3yrs time? If you have the balls hedge em with options. If you have big brass balls with the bank account to back it, start playing sectors of the market and shorting volatile stock w/i those sectors. That's how you make money in a bear market.
The FED is not here to save the market, they are there for overall monetary policy. Based on current economic figures such as housing starts, unemployment, PPI, retail sales, we are in a slow down not a recession. Recession is defined as 2qtrs of negative GDP growth. We are not there yet.

Link Posted: 3/5/2001 8:25:37 PM EDT
Now I see why you were top dog at your old office.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 2:37:42 AM EDT
Lately, I've had a hard-on for CSCO, SUNW, and JNPR. Am I nuts?
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 2:59:41 AM EDT
Pumkin Futures....Thats Where The Money IS !
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 3:02:18 AM EDT

I've got $100 to invest. Where should I put it?
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 3:29:34 AM EDT
All the stocks I purchased within the last year are now worth less than 25% of what I paid for them.  I waited until after Y2K and bought some high techs last spring, like Lucent!!!

HOWEVER, all the firearms I have ever purchased are worth as much or more than I paid for them.

I really wish I had bought guns last year rather than stock.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 3:45:53 AM EDT
Man it seems like we just heard this about a 15 months ago.  Wasn't Y2K the SHTF scenerio.  Rioting in the streets, total civil disrupt... My guess is this prediction will be just as accurate.  The economy taking a dip is not the end of the world.  The economy is not going to crash.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 4:03:45 AM EDT
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 4:20:02 AM EDT
Divide It Equally Up Powder, Brass, Bullets ,Best Spent Money ,OSLOW!!!
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 4:36:49 AM EDT
Bears make money. Bulls make money. Pigs don't make nothin'.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 5:46:24 AM EDT
I'm investing in 8-Tracks! I did my research and I heard that they're going to make a comeback! [:0]
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 9:09:05 AM EDT
Bears make money. Bulls make money. Pigs don't make nothin'.
View Quote

That is a very true statement!!!!
There are a few tech company's that will survive this. Mainly the one that have a 10+ yr track record. Basically your well established. Earning will be off for a while. That the whole reason behind lowering rates. For the economy to slow. Those personally affected by will call it a recession. I will not discount the idea of recession, however if it happens it will be for a short period of time. Market downturns such as this are great oppurtunities to buy and load up on good solid companies. Ride it out to the bad times and wait till market appreciates again. To those holding semiconductor, find out about the book to bill ratio. This is a gauge on receivables for these companies. Good way to determine earnings. To those holding techs, pay attention to the S&P tech index and where the PPI is headed.
Diversify. Never go into one sector fully. I firmly believe that telecommunication dealing in wireless and fiber optics will do well in 3-5yr timeframe. The same goes with the bio-techs. Financials are in a down cycle right not. However as the economy grows so will their stock prices. Buy low, Sell high. There are a few financials that will post positive earnings, due to the fact that there was close to 30billion+ dollars in Corp Debt underwritten this qtr and the fees from that is astronomical. Mergers will still happen in the future with these financials.
If you're looking at bonds. Now is not the time to go into treasuries. It is way overpriced. Look into some medium term corp notes. But stick to single A and above rating. YOu can get a better yield without giving up much risk. Once you get a hint of the market going up you better dump it or be prepared to hold the bond to maturity(which is not a bad thing either)
Mutual funds are good for the portfolio. Look for one with a long history at least 10yrs. Make sure the Fund Manager has been there for a while and has been in the biz for at least 10yrs. Growth and Income tend to perform better on mkt downturns and still will give you a good return in mkt upturns(not as much as growth funds) International funds are good for a small portion of your portfolio.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 9:17:14 AM EDT
Oh BTW to those that have their 401K and would like to change their allocations. Try this

50% Growth Funds
10% Growth and Income Funds
20% Bond Funds
10% Index Funds
10% International Funds

Again that just a model for current market. Contact your own financial planner for specific recommendations based on your age and financial situation, and financial goal.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 9:47:59 AM EDT
Ok, I am a StockBroker/Financial Planner and I'm going to go on record.

Several months before Y2K, we had several talking heads on this board proclaiming the end of our civilization.  The majority believed at least "something" would happen.  And I was in the small minority that said "nothing" would happen.

I'm here to say it again.  

And if it does (it won't), don't worry about owning stocks or gold.  An AR and some ammo is all you'll need.

If you are looking to invest, the market is in a good "buying range" right now.  I'd wade in using "dollar cost averaging."  Take a portion of your funds, say 10% and invest that amount systematically each month.  If you are investing monthly in your IRA or 401(k), good for you.  What you are doing now is buying at a discount.  You are accumulating more shares for less $, and it will pay off when the market rebounds.

Sure we had a bust in the technology stocks, but that was a result of the process, not the product.  We will see amazing leaps in technology in the next 10 years, and will see the Dow well above 30,000, and the NASDAQ well above 10,000.

Always keep some cash on hand.  You never know what bargains you might pick up.

I made a steal last year on:

1.  An M-16 at $1-2k below the prices at the time
2.  A 2nd house (rental), paid $105, it appraised at $135
3.  A 4X4 blazer for $1800

When people are desperate, your cash can make you some good deals.  Right now, the stock market is getting desperate, that makes for good deals.

"It is time to buy when there is blood in the streets"
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 11:07:08 AM EDT
On a long enought time line any companies stock is eventually worth $0. Nobody stays sucessfull forever. Do you think the peaple who invested in the company that makes Covered Wagons are wealthy now?

Link Posted: 3/6/2001 11:09:13 AM EDT
Mr. Buffo,
Yeah I'll sell em all, just as soon as I unload the 50 Jerry cans, 5,00 watt generator, and 2,000 cans of stew and soup I bought after listening to someone like you regarding Y2K!!!

Sell my stocks.. hahaha... all I have is options now... and they're already worhtless.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 11:10:23 AM EDT
Mr. Buffo,
Yeah I'll sell em all, just as soon as I unload the 50 Jerry cans, 5,000 watt generator, and 2,000 cans of stew and soup I bought after listening to someone like you regarding Y2K!!!

Sell my stocks.. hahaha... all I have is options now... and they're already worhtless.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 11:49:57 AM EDT
On a long enought time line any companies stock is eventually worth $0. Nobody stays sucessfull forever. Do you think the peaple who invested in the company that makes Covered Wagons are wealthy now?

View Quote


Ever hear of IBM they sold typewriters.  Man since nobody uses those things anymore.  I guess there stock must be worthless.[:D]

Link Posted: 3/6/2001 11:50:41 AM EDT
Why sell?  Why buy?  We are all just dust in the wind.  If the Bilderbergers and the Behemoths and the Freemasons and the Grand Illusionist "Alan Greenspan" (if that's his real name) want us to sell, we will sell.  MK-ULTRA took care of all so-called "investing."
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 1:16:22 PM EDT
I'm betting the market will stay down at least until the end of the summer.

"Recessions" and spiking gasoline prices have gone hand in hand for the past half century, and summer is traditionally a slow time for the stock market.

I'll switch my retirement back in when the S&P drops below 1100.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 2:45:25 PM EDT


Ever hear of IBM they sold typewriters.  Man since nobody uses those things anymore.  I guess there stock must be worthless.[:D]

View Quote

don't forget, they made M1 carbines also!
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 5:15:46 PM EDT
Maybe I'm a moron, but with 30 years to go until retirement, my 401k is invested 100% in stock funds, some of which hold up to 20% bonds and/or cash. Every year I go over my funds, make allocation adjustments, and move things around a little. For now, I don't give a crap how the short-term market behaves. I'm counting on the fund managers to make the right decisions as to the companies and sectors they prefer. As I near retirement, I'll reallocate as I see fit. The end is not near.
Link Posted: 3/6/2001 5:21:01 PM EDT

Your gloom and doom, "The sky is falling" approach serves no useful purpose other than mislead and stampede a herd. Most people who have shunned good investments are sitting in their gloomy little single wides staring out the window waiting for their meager S.S. checks to arrive in order to survive another month.

The single wide may be my future but I'm not sitting back and waiting for it. Sucess is achieved by wise investing and not by burying your money in a can in the yard.
Link Posted: 3/7/2001 12:12:57 AM EDT
Bears make money. Bulls make money. Pigs don't make nothin'.
View Quote

Oh, c'mon everyone knows that pigs do nothing but makin' bacon  [sex]
Link Posted: 3/7/2001 12:36:37 AM EDT
My 401k:

A safe full of colt revolvers...

A safe full of preban ar's....

A safe full of preban mags....

Best investment ever and it keeps growing in size and value!

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