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Posted: 10/2/2004 12:35:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2004 12:38:03 PM EST by The_Macallan]
...but I will reiterate - GWBush had better have one hell of an "October Surprise" lined up because the debates will destroy him.



NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE

New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.

The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.

A 62% majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush)

* 51% say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush).

* 47% percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush)

* 49% say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush).

The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.

Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
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Link Posted: 10/2/2004 12:37:46 PM EST
GWB needs to go on the offensive, non stop till election day.
Take the gloves off.
He stunk in the debate against skerry, how bad is it to lose to that moron.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 12:41:28 PM EST

Originally Posted By SPECTRE:
GWB needs to go on the offensive, non stop till election day.
Take the gloves off.
He stunk in the debate against skerry, how bad is it to lose to that moron.



Yep - and that's why Kerry is in a GREAT position right now.

He doesn't have to change ANYTHING! He found a formula that works and now GWBush is gonna have to flounder around for something that can overcome Kerry.


GWBush is up against the wall now.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 1:17:36 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 1:21:10 PM EST

Originally Posted By ken_mays:
The Gallup poll has a different result than the Newsweak poll.



Exactly. Don't get too worked up over just one poll. Still, Bush does need to stay on the offensive.

Then again, Hillary probably hasn't played her card (theoretical) yet.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 3:42:35 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2004 3:44:23 PM EST by The_Macallan]

Originally Posted By ken_mays:
People know that Bush has a strong, consistent stand and they saw that Kerry is a weathervane.


This election will be decided by the 5% of utterly-oblivious ignoramuses who call themselves "undecided voters" - the one's who don't know about Kerry's Senate record, his lies, his anti-American stances or his treasonous activities in the '70s.

Link Posted: 10/2/2004 4:09:32 PM EST
Newsweek is liberal. Measures all voters, not those likely to vote
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 4:33:25 PM EST

This election will be decided by the 5% of utterly-oblivious ignoramuses who call themselves "undecided voters" - the one's who don't know about Kerry's Senate record, his lies, his anti-American stances or his treasonous activities in the '70s.



+1 head.gif
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 4:35:05 PM EST

Originally Posted By XJ:

This election will be decided by the 5% of utterly-oblivious ignoramuses who call themselves "undecided voters" - the one's who don't know about Kerry's Senate record, his lies, his anti-American stances or his treasonous activities in the '70s.



+1



+2

Link Posted: 10/2/2004 4:39:21 PM EST
So..........do they roll out Osama for the second debate or wait till the final one...................
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 5:15:46 PM EST
Bush pissed me off at the debate ! This election is his to lose, and he better get off his ass and start hitting Kerry where it hurts! Bush let him slide too many times !
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 5:18:47 PM EST
Oh my, the sky is falling!

Never fear, good polls are here:

John Kerry may have indeed energized his base with Thursday night’s debate performance. The first post-debate poll out from Democracy Corps (a Democrat polling company ran by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg) shows a 2-point bounce for democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry. Democracy Corps now shows the president with a 50%-48% lead.

In a pre-debate poll by Democracy Corps(PDF), President George W. Bush lead John Kerry 50%-46%. President Bush’s approval rating after the debate increased one-point from to 52% and the rest of his underlying numbers improved as well. Some of the key internals for the president:

Viewed as a strong leader by 60%. (+1)

Viewed an honest and trustworthy by 55%. (+3)

Has a good plan for Iraq 48% (+4)

Offers a hopeful vision for the future 53% (+2)

John Kerry made inroads as well, as all of his numbers spiked with his performance, but not nearly enough to overtake the president. The president still leads on who will handle the “war on terror” better (49%-41%) and which person can be more trusted to handle the war in Iraq better (48%-45%).

DOn't believe the hype...Kerry still has not "connected" nor will he ever do so.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:43:12 PM EST

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:
...GWBush had better have one hell of an "October Surprise" lined up because the debates will destroy him....


I wouldn’t count Bush out of the debates. While no great debater, he’s capable of doing better than he did (and I’m still irritated with him for not having his act together in this one).

Granted, the past debate focusing on international issues is the one he should have done his best in.

OTOH, expectations for him will now be lower - which gives him the ideal opportunity to redeem himself. And Kerry, as arrogant as he is, might be unprepared for a better response from Bush.

Bush’s numbers going down a bit might give him a well deserved kick-in-the-pants to try harder next time!!
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:47:22 PM EST
"Kerry won the debate" does NOT equal "I am voting for Kerry"

Sheesh guys, I think Kerry won the debate but that doesn't mean I'm voting for him.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:52:16 PM EST

Originally Posted By The_Macallan:

Originally Posted By ken_mays:
People know that Bush has a strong, consistent stand and they saw that Kerry is a weathervane.


This election will be decided by the 5% of utterly-oblivious ignoramuses who call themselves "undecided voters" - the one's who don't know about Kerry's Senate record, his lies, his anti-American stances or his treasonous activities in the '70s.




I saw another poll that says there are 18% undecided..If so, those could be some staggering numbers to one side or the other come November..
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:53:48 PM EST
Bush keep to the point of the question, Kerry ran in all directions with a buch of BS. I don't feel Kerry won anything.

He reminds me of that old saying; "If you can't dazzle them with brilance, baffle them with bullshit."
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:54:10 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 8:58:54 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2004 8:59:42 PM EST by Winston_Wolf]
... I'm not gonna give myself an aneurysm or stroke over it. We've fought for GWBs' reelection, and we'll continue to fight. But what ever happens, happens.

... If he loses, the only thing we can do is hold our head high and continue the cause for conservatism. While I like GWB, he has not been the "ideal Conservative" president in my mind.

... Our lives will go on, however we know the direction the country will head if socialism is given a chance to get a foothold. I feel badly for your kids and grandkids because I'm afraid the Country will have a political complexion we won't even recognize by time they're our age.

... I still think GWB has a good chance. We need to do our part to keep campaigning.

... FWIW, I'm seeing a huge majority of GWB bumper-stickers on vehicles around town.
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:00:48 PM EST
October surprise.

Saddam trial to start in October

(Al-Mashriq) – The trial of former President Saddam Hussein and other officals of his regime will start by October 15. Ministry of Justice spokesman Noori Abdul Raheem said Saddam will be the last one on trial since some former regime members will be used as prosecution witnesses against him. The source did not mention the place of the trial. Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih visited Ali Hassan al-Majeed, formerly known as "Chemical Ali", who blamed the Halabcha chemical attack on Nazar al-Khazraji.

(Al-Mashriq is published daily by Al-Mashriq Institution for Media and Cultural Investments.)
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:05:43 PM EST
1 poll Mac...you know better than that
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:05:58 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2004 9:07:02 PM EST by raven]
Please. Anyone who knows how the media works knew they were going to declare Kerry the winner and start a new narrative about his dramatic "comeback" for the month of October. As Emperor Palpatine would say, "It has been foreseen, my young apprentice."

www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/694ipstv.asp
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:15:39 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:24:41 PM EST

HiramRanger, I just saw the thread you're referring to.

Evil. Pure evil is what the leftists are.

Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:27:13 PM EST
Bah! Newsweek = Liberals polling Liberals...
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 9:27:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/2/2004 9:28:20 PM EST by raven]
GunLvrPHD and I saw this coaslescing Wednesday and Thursday, too. Check out the Iowa Electronic futures. "It is unfolding as I have foreseen"

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=277962&page=2

Link Posted: 10/2/2004 10:06:49 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/2/2004 10:38:18 PM EST
Rasmussen has Kerry gaining 1%

Newsweek poll seems to have flawed methodology and sampling.

I'd wait a week and watch the state polling before i say the sky is falling.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 9:57:48 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:02:26 AM EST
Guys... you're talking about the same people that published the "more thrusts per squeeze" article.

Gimme a break.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:20:40 AM EST

Originally Posted By alaman:
Newsweek is liberal. Measures all voters, not those likely to vote



Affirmative. The poll sampled "registered voters" and not "likely voters." The Kerry Campaign today said they typically do better in registered voter polls.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:23:59 AM EST
The internals on Carvilles favor bush.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:26:31 AM EST
I think the liberals were counting on this manufactured evaporation of Bush's lead as their own October surprise. Although I respect your intellect a great deal, Mac, I will stop short of declaring yo clairvoyant. Anyone could see this coming for weeks.

Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:29:29 AM EST
Is this the same Mac who was confidently posting awesome self-made ads just a few weeks ago?

Now it sems as if sKerry may have used a cheat sheet during the debate, and it was clearly caught on video (see Drudge). This isn't over by a long shot.

That said, if Bush flubs the next two debates, then things may get ugly....
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:31:46 AM EST
Don't forget, according to the media, bush lost to gore during the first debate in 2000.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:37:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By Zaphod:
Is this the same Mac who was confidently posting awesome self-made ads just a few weeks ago?

Now it sems as if sKerry may have used a cheat sheet during the debate, and it was clearly caught on video (see Drudge). This isn't over by a long shot.

That said, if Bush flubs the next two debates, then things may get ugly....



Bush had better not do anything except the exact same performance he gave this first time.

Anything else risks a mistake.

Everytime Kerry opens his mouth he lies and provides more grist for the Internet mill.

There is no support for the Newsweek poll, at best its a flyer at worst its fraud. More attempts by the media to lie for Kerry are exposed DAILY

The worst thing Bush could do is have a Howard Dean moment.
Link Posted: 10/3/2004 10:42:02 AM EST
Oh, hey..... I'm not advocating having W walk across the stage and giving sKerry the ass-whipping he so desperately deserves. I'm talking about coming across as attentive, engaged, and AWAKE.

He could start by actually speaking a sentance longer then 5 words, and doing so without all the pauses.

Other than that, he's GOT the substance to eviscerate sKerry. It's the DELIVERY he has to work on.

...and yes, I think the Newsweek poll is wildely optimistic. Notice it's the ONLY one?
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