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Posted: 10/7/2005 6:50:49 PM EDT
How weird.  I've never been quoted before.

Am I famous now?
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 6:52:11 PM EDT
[#1]
Maybe.  But you're still wrong.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 6:56:14 PM EDT
[#2]
Aw, crap... someone just had to encourage him.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 6:56:44 PM EDT
[#3]
Oops.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 7:13:42 PM EDT
[#4]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 7:16:30 PM EDT
[#5]

Quoted:

Advice:

Worry about Avian Flu instead of Peak Oil.




I think the lack of attractive redheads prepared to date me in a 30 mile radius is a much more pressing issue for the country to worry about.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 7:17:23 PM EDT
[#6]

Quoted:
How weird.  I've never been quoted before.

Am I famous now?



Link Posted: 10/7/2005 7:21:34 PM EDT
[#7]
I didn't see anything attributed to "Tinfoil-Hatted Internet Gadfly." Can you point more specifically to the quotation?
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:10:35 PM EDT
[#8]
Hey, one nutbag quoting another nutbag.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:18:09 PM EDT
[#9]
Peak oil, the hypothesis and not the poster here, is false because it ignores economics.  Sure, oil production has been falling but only due to the price point.  More production isn't economically justified...

This hypothesis (more like proto-hypothesis) also fails on the technological merit.  It totally ignores the HUGE advances in technology over the past 100 years.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:31:04 PM EDT
[#10]

Quoted:
I didn't see anything attributed to "Tinfoil-Hatted Internet Gadfly." Can you point more specifically to the quotation?



Personally, there aren't too many things short of all out
nuclear war or California falling into the Pacific Ocean that
could force my "how screwed are we?" meter any higher than
it already is. My guess is many of you feel similarly. It is my
hope that with writers like Steven, Dmitry, and others, we
can figure out ways to get ourselves as unscrewed as
possible.

(Thanks to Ayoob of PeakOil.com for he summed it all up
when he said, "I realize I'm screwed and now my goal is to
get myself as unscrewed as possible.")
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:45:02 PM EDT
[#11]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:48:11 PM EDT
[#12]

Quoted:
This thread seems to be you pimping this guy's $6 newsletter.



Curses, you foiled my evil scheme!  I was gonna be rich, RICH I tell you!  My eleven cents on the six dollar newsletter, for each of the nine people that buy it... And I would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for you meddling... whatever-you-are's.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 8:51:50 PM EDT
[#13]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:06:56 PM EDT
[#14]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
This thread seems to be you pimping this guy's $6 newsletter.



Curses, you foiled my evil scheme!  I was gonna be rich, RICH I tell you!  My eleven cents on the six dollar newsletter, for each of the nine people that buy it... And I would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for you meddling... whatever-you-are's.


If you're trying to sell something, even if only for a friend, allow me to direct you to the Equipment Exchage: Everything Else.



I'm not selling anything.  
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:16:46 PM EDT
[#15]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:25:32 PM EDT
[#16]

Quoted:

Quoted:
This thread seems to be you pimping this guy's $6 newsletter.



Curses, you foiled my evil scheme!  I was gonna be rich, RICH I tell you!  My eleven cents on the six dollar newsletter, for each of the nine people that buy it... And I would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for you meddling... whatever-you-are's.




Dont forget the "stupid dog".
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:30:18 PM EDT
[#17]

So is it a good thing or a bad thing to be quoted in some obscure guy's paranoid blog?  Are you bragging or complaining?







Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:35:15 PM EDT
[#18]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I'm not selling anything.  


Sure you are, and now you're just selling bullshit.

You give us a story about how you've been quoted by "an author" and post a link to fearmonger.com. No reference to where on the site your "quote" can be found, but at the top of the site is a link where the article can be bought.

Newsflash: He's not an author; he's a blogger who wants to charge you to read his blog.

I'll pass.



The guy has a book out, that's his website.  

That guy's website and book have been used by Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland) during his speeches to the House of Representatives.

Good for you, though.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:43:02 PM EDT
[#19]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
I'm not selling anything.  


Sure you are, and now you're just selling bullshit.

You give us a story about how you've been quoted by "an author" and post a link to fearmonger.com. No reference to where on the site your "quote" can be found, but at the top of the site is a link where the article can be bought.

Newsflash: He's not an author; he's a blogger who wants to charge you to read his blog.

I'll pass.



The guy has a book out, that's his website.  

That guy's website and book have been used by Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland) during his speeches to the House of Representatives.

Good for you, though.



You have not a clue on economics.  Peak Oil FAILS when facing OPEC.  You have NEVER addressed the facts I have presented in deepwater technology.  Nor have you considered the ramifications of the fact we will soon break the limitation of depth leading to UNFETTERED E&P in INTERNATIONAL WATER!

Sure, the UN has been trying to reel in international territory on E&P, giving the right to capture to developing and Third World countries BUT that has NO ENFORCEMENT!  The International Maritime rules govern it just the same as a shipwreck in international water, first one there gets all.  And the developing/3rd world isn't funding the technology...

There is MUCH more basin area ripe for the taking than the TOTAL land basins.  And MUCH MORE area than the current offshore/deepwater.

Mark my word.  International oil will lead to some incredible finds.  And even more incredible strife in the UN.  But as is said around here, FUCK THE UN!
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:43:34 PM EDT
[#20]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:46:53 PM EDT
[#21]
shameless +1
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:47:30 PM EDT
[#22]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The guy has a book out, that's his website.


The guy has a self-published manifesto out, available only on his website.  



 Yeah - that's a pretty low bar for "published author"

I guess the Unabomber, teenage bloggers with access to Kinko's and those people who write little books about cats for the grocery store checkout line, all fall into that category as well


In today's information age, and just-in-time publishing, pretty much ANYONE can be a "published author





Still - all that said, it's still cool when someone thinks your opinion is worthwhile enough to include it in their work.  (As an academic, citation rates are actually very important to me, so I know the feeling - even if at a somewhat different level!)
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:48:49 PM EDT
[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The guy has a book out, that's his website.


The guy has a self-published manifesto out, available only on his website.  


That guy's website and book have been used by Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland) during his speeches to the House of Representatives.

And Senator Arlen Specter (RINO-Pennsylvania) gave us the Magic Bullet Theory.


Good for you, though.

And you too.



You know, there's something I like about you.  I really think we're going to be good friends, and I can't wait to buy you a beer.  It's almost like you're a father figure to me, helping me out and being a guiding light and everything.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:51:52 PM EDT
[#24]
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:52:02 PM EDT
[#25]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
I'm not selling anything.  


Sure you are, and now you're just selling bullshit.

You give us a story about how you've been quoted by "an author" and post a link to fearmonger.com. No reference to where on the site your "quote" can be found, but at the top of the site is a link where the article can be bought.

Newsflash: He's not an author; he's a blogger who wants to charge you to read his blog.

I'll pass.



The guy has a book out, that's his website.  

That guy's website and book have been used by Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland) during his speeches to the House of Representatives.

Good for you, though.



You have not a clue on economics.  Peak Oil FAILS when facing OPEC.  You have NEVER addressed the facts I have presented in deepwater technology.  Nor have you considered the ramifications of the fact we will soon break the limitation of depth leading to UNFETTERED E&P in INTERNATIONAL WATER!

Sure, the UN has been trying to reel in international territory on E&P, giving the right to capture to developing and Third World countries BUT that has NO ENFORCEMENT!  The International Maritime rules govern it just the same as a shipwreck in international water, first one there gets all.  And the developing/3rd world isn't funding the technology...

There is MUCH more basin area ripe for the taking than the TOTAL land basins.  And MUCH MORE area than the current offshore/deepwater.

Mark my word.  International oil will lead to some incredible finds.  And even more incredible strife in the UN.  But as is said around here, FUCK THE UN!



Deepwater is yielding some really great finds these days.  ASPO pushed back their date for peak production to 2010 based on the deepwater and polar finds.  Very true.  I'm just curious.  Are you saying that oil extraction will never peak?  Even a thousand years from now?
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 9:53:29 PM EDT
[#26]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
The guy has a book out, that's his website.


The guy has a self-published manifesto out, available only on his website.  



 Yeah - that's a pretty low bar for "published author"

I guess the Unabomber, teenage bloggers with access to Kinko's and those people who write little books about cats for the grocery store checkout line, all fall into that category as well

In today's information age, and just-in-time publishing, pretty much ANYONE can be a "published author

Still - all that said, it's still cool when someone thinks your opinion is worthwhile enough to include it in their work.  (As an academic, citation rates are actually very important to me, so I know the feeling - even if at a somewhat different level!)



I was just surprised, that's all.  It was a little weird seeing that.  Kind of cool, though.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 10:03:04 PM EDT
[#27]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
I'm not selling anything.  


Sure you are, and now you're just selling bullshit.

You give us a story about how you've been quoted by "an author" and post a link to fearmonger.com. No reference to where on the site your "quote" can be found, but at the top of the site is a link where the article can be bought.

Newsflash: He's not an author; he's a blogger who wants to charge you to read his blog.

I'll pass.



The guy has a book out, that's his website.  

That guy's website and book have been used by Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland) during his speeches to the House of Representatives.

Good for you, though.



You have not a clue on economics.  Peak Oil FAILS when facing OPEC.  You have NEVER addressed the facts I have presented in deepwater technology.  Nor have you considered the ramifications of the fact we will soon break the limitation of depth leading to UNFETTERED E&P in INTERNATIONAL WATER!

Sure, the UN has been trying to reel in international territory on E&P, giving the right to capture to developing and Third World countries BUT that has NO ENFORCEMENT!  The International Maritime rules govern it just the same as a shipwreck in international water, first one there gets all.  And the developing/3rd world isn't funding the technology...

There is MUCH more basin area ripe for the taking than the TOTAL land basins.  And MUCH MORE area than the current offshore/deepwater.

Mark my word.  International oil will lead to some incredible finds.  And even more incredible strife in the UN.  But as is said around here, FUCK THE UN!



Deepwater is yielding some really great finds these days.  ASPO pushed back their date for peak production to 2010 based on the deepwater and polar finds.  Very true.  I'm just curious.  Are you saying that oil extraction will never peak?  Even a thousand years from now?



Where did I ever say it would "peak"?  It peaked when OPEC determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear.  This is what caused the "peak" you speak of, not some farsical limit of pumping.  Its called economics.  Get a grip.

Before OPEC, the goal was pump all you could.  Then, the unity of exporters made production limited to force the price.  This in turn SPURRED development in non-OPEC countries, leading to OPEC overproducing in the 1980s.  This dropped prices below what was economically viable for the independents, causing these wells to be shut in.  Then external forces of the collapse of the Soviet Union plus the Gulf War caused a minor spike, opening a few independents.  Cessation of GWI was met with increased Kuwait production once the damage was repaired, IN RECORD TIME and further aided by the first stage of deepwater.  Then the Asian economy collapse cut demand, leading to the excess production of the late 1990's where crude dropped to $10 a barrel.  This led to the increased demand here with less economical vehicles.  The rebound of the Asian economies increased demand, leading to the current crises.

So, IT IS DEMAND, not SUPPLY, that leads the market.  And this lean supply time is greatly helping the supply side.  We will be awash in cheap oil in a year.  Mark my words.  Peak Oil will be relegated to the trash heap of pop science.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 10:09:23 PM EDT
[#28]
KeithJ,

re:  Where did I ever say it would "peak"? It peaked when OPEC determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear. This is what caused the "peak" you speak of, not some farsical limit of pumping. Its called economics. Get a grip.

I don't think we're talking about the same thing.  I'm not sure OPEC ever determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear.  I don't really know what that means.  Maybe you should elaborate on this a little.

I don't think oil production actually has peaked yet.  It looks like you think it peaked in the early 70's... maybe... if I understand what you're saying.  The world is producing more oil now than ever... so by my definitions we haven't peaked yet...

I'm pretty much on the same page with this as far as what peak oil is.... I think it's a great primer on the topic and isn't all that biased one way or the other...
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 10:38:56 PM EDT
[#29]

Quoted:
KeithJ,

re:  Where did I ever say it would "peak"? It peaked when OPEC determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear. This is what caused the "peak" you speak of, not some farsical limit of pumping. Its called economics. Get a grip.

I don't think we're talking about the same thing.  I'm not sure OPEC ever determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear.  I don't really know what that means.  Maybe you should elaborate on this a little.

I don't think oil production actually has peaked yet.  It looks like you think it peaked in the early 70's... maybe... if I understand what you're saying.  The world is producing more oil now than ever... so by my definitions we haven't peaked yet...

I'm pretty much on the same page with this as far as what peak oil is.... I think it's a great primer on the topic and isn't all that biased one way or the other...



Economics control production.  If you don't know the basis for market pricing, I suggest you seek education.  The price is whatever the market will bear.  It is all about maximizing NPV, Net Prevent Value.  Price per unit * #units sold.  Simple.

OPEC realized this.  Others realized cost of production could be less so they produced.  In comes the natural pricing.  That being inflexible demand. This is where the demand for a good is much greater than the economy.  Take salt for example.  Very inflexible.  People will not buy more than they need, regardless of price.  But increase the price and people will still buy the same quantity because they can afford it.  Unlike salt, refined petroleum is tied to a particular  durable good, that being a house and/or car.  And this demand is set by such purchase of said durable good.  Hence the lag time between consumption and demand.

I really pity China in these times of low supply.  Their economic advancement will surely be stunted by the current condition...until Thunderhorse and Atlantis hit first oil.
Link Posted: 10/7/2005 10:42:45 PM EDT
[#30]
Where did I ever say it would "peak"? It peaked when OPEC determined the market price should be whatever the market would bear. This is what caused the "peak" you speak of, not some farsical limit of pumping. Its called economics. Get a grip.

Economics control production. If you don't know the basis for market pricing, I suggest you seek education. The price is whatever the market will bear. It is all about maximizing NPV, Net Prevent Value. Price per unit * #units sold. Simple.

--------------------------

Please clarify.  Also, please define the term "peak oil."

ETA:  I added the line
Link Posted: 10/8/2005 5:47:40 AM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 10/8/2005 7:30:49 AM EDT
[#32]

Quoted:
Peak_Oil, you still havent addressed the recent MAJOR, MAJOR breakthru in low cost In-Situ Kerogen extraction by Shell Oil.

We now have a recoverable reserve that is several times larger than all the oil ever in Saudi Arabia and we can extract it at ~$35 a barrel.  Some say that will drop to ~$25 when the technique becomes more refined.

You are still arguing based on six months ago.  This breakthru changed everything overnight.



Yes, I'm sure it did.  Very good.  Let me know when the first of the shale oil is pumped to a refinery.

Frankly, I hope you're right.  Nothing good will come of oil production topping out.
Link Posted: 10/8/2005 7:45:54 AM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 10/8/2005 5:51:37 PM EDT
[#34]
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