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Posted: 9/15/2004 4:13:16 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 4:37:47 AM EST by California_Kid]
Check this out (hope this graphic displays):



Ivan's track plus forecast positions (this link could change at any time):

Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:19:19 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:22:55 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 4:23:51 AM EST by DriftPunch]
The model I pay attention to has at nearly a worst case for New Orleans. I also see nothing that will prevent further westward drift.

Note that the link changes with time, so within 4-6 hours of this post time, this will have changed from when I originally posted it.

weather.unisys.com/eta/36h/eta_pres_36h.html
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:25:54 AM EST
Alot of poor and elderly are going to be exterminated if Ivan nails N.O. No organized evacuation. Whatever happened to civil defense in this country?
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:29:18 AM EST
It coming here and/or Ala, not New Orleans, unless something extreem happens.

Personally, I'd rather have it come here... I have interests in NO and my crap here is much better built.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:32:03 AM EST
Everything weather

http://www.noaa.gov/
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:38:02 AM EST
I don't understand why more people don't leave NO, considering it's pretty much guaranteed to be armageddon time if they take a direct hit from a major storm. It's just a matter of time.

I read somewhere that the city is slowly sinking over time, and it will be completely underwater in 100 years. Of course, they'll just build higher and higher walls to keep the ocean out, and then you have a huge fishbowl waiting for the floodwaters. I'd go there to visit, but I sure wouldn't want to live there.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:17:35 AM EST
Camille had 200 MPH winds IIRC, Ivan might be taking a close track, but it is nowhere near the storm Camille was:

By the next afternoon (17 August), reconnaissance aircraft reached Hurricane Camille about 2:00 p.m. CDT, 100 miles south of the Mississippi coast. Historic conditions now existed in the tightly knotted vortex of Camille. The aircraft had measured a barometric pressure of 905 mb (26.73). This was one of the lowest barometric pressure readings ever measured by aircraft up to that time. Only two supertyphoons in the Pacific - Ida in 1958 (873 mb/25.90), and Marge in 1951(895 mb/26.20), had a lower barometric pressure been measured (JTWC 1976). Sustained winds had now increased to an incredible 190 mph. Camille was now estimated to make landfall along the Mississippi coast around midnight on the 17th.

Link to info
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:32:17 AM EST
How much more built up is this area now compared with 1969? I know this sounds stupid, but I'm just a dumb Yankee from Michigan who dosn't know the area.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:37:21 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 5:38:00 AM EST by whodges13]
I am originally from Biloxi. When Camille hit in '69 it changed the geography in Biloxi. In the 60's Biloxi was called "Sin City" with alot of whore houses and strip clubs. Camille came in and physically removed every building like that from the face of the earth. That storm drove pine straw needles into other trees. They were sticking straight out of the bark. It was crazy.

Oh and once again we are on the receiving side of it all. Flood time!
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:41:40 AM EST
i was just a kid at the time, but my parents actually packed us all up and evacuated south florida (where they initially thought camille might make landfall) and went to stay with relatives in (wait for it) mississippi. we were inland, fortunately, but the storm spawned a tornado which trashed much of my grandparents' neighborhood. driving back, we passed through some of the harder-hit areas. it left a lasting impression on me - which is why i invested in storm shutters before storm shutters were cool.

i'm praying for the folks in ivan's projected path.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:43:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 5:45:02 AM EST by mpearcex]
well consider all the casinos on the caost of Mississippi. And I mean they are built right on the water. There could be some real damage to them. I was in the 69' Camille I grew up in Hattiesburg, just 70 miles north of Gulfport.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:47:04 AM EST
The coast around Mobile - Pensacola has built up quite a bit over the years. The governor here in AL has set up I-65 so that all lanes are going north up to Montgomery and I can say for sure that the interstate in the birmingham area is basically at a standstill from all the people going north. People are definitley taking it seriously.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:56:17 AM EST
I sitting here at home and my family thought I was nuts not to leave.Everthing pointed that it would past east of me . Now I would have been screwed if it past direct or west of me. Sofar I look safe.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:59:09 AM EST
What about the poor (not Bums) and old. What's being done for them?
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 6:05:29 AM EST
My mom's cousin owns a fishing resort business down there.

Looks like it's about to be destroyed.

www.neworleansfishing.com





Fricken sucks.

Link Posted: 9/15/2004 6:17:43 AM EST
Landfall @ 6:00 a.m. tomorrow just east of Mobile.

Ivan is now sucking in dry air..it will land as a strong Cat. 3...but the surge will be huge. This is no Camille by any means, but it is still a dangerous storm.

Outer bands are just now getting to us here in Fort Walton beach.
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